National Championship football - Clemson v Alabama

I'm interested in getting opinions from the forum about the national championship game, particularly about the betting lines. As I write this, Alabama is 6.5 point favorite, 51 is the over/under. I'm in several bowl pools/handicapping contests where an accurate pick here will be important as this game is worth 4x the value of a normal bowl game (the semi-finals were worth 2x).

My gut instinct was to bet Alabama as their defense, and in particular their defensive line is outstanding, yet I keep hearing that the public shouldn't overlook Clemson and that their style of football is one that can give Alabama a challenge. I follow pro ball much closer and hope there are some college football fans who can give me their opinions on the game.

Quote: MidwestAP

I'm interested in getting opinions from the forum about the national championship game, particularly about the betting lines. As I write this, Alabama is 6.5 point favorite, 51 is the over/under. I'm in several bowl pools/handicapping contests where an accurate pick here will be important as this game is worth 4x the value of a normal bowl game (the semi-finals were worth 2x).

My gut instinct was to bet Alabama as their defense, and in particular their defensive line is outstanding, yet I keep hearing that the public shouldn't overlook Clemson and that their style of football is one that can give Alabama a challenge. I follow pro ball much closer and hope there are some college football fans who can give me their opinions on the game.

Not an expert. 51 seems REALLY low for a college game. Maybe both teams are stronger defensively than offensively. But that's REALLY low for a division that routinely puts up scores in the 40's and 50's per team (at least the one that wins).

Lay the 6.5. I expect that plus 7.5 will be available in Vegas this weekend.

Thanks for the feedback.

For one of the pools, I specifically need to pick a side on a line of 7.5. Any thoughts?

Quote: MidwestAP

Thanks for the feedback.

For one of the pools, I specifically need to pick a side on a line of 7.5. Any thoughts?

The public is unaware, but Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops and Bama coach Lou Saben are good friends. They collude sometimes. A few years ago they teamed up against Florida and Urban Meyer resulting in the Bama win in the SEC Championship. Point being it will two against one coaching wise with regards to actual play calling and defensive sets. Coach Stoops will want to get back at Clemson for obvious reasons. I also envision a Bama crowd as the Clemson fans will have blown all their disposable income in Miami.

So, with that said, a bunch of nothing of course, I'd lay the points and take Alabama. Clemson just happy to be in the game. They peaked vs. Oklahoma IMHO.

Bama thinks they have this game in the bag, and they might.
Watch the first quarter. If Tigers get a little Mo, Katie bar the door...

Quote: MidwestAP

Thanks for the feedback.

For one of the pools, I specifically need to pick a side on a line of 7.5. Any thoughts?

In case you haven't checked or it's not obvious, Clemson's +6.5 now so it's a no brainer if you can still make or change the pick.

I'll give you guys a great reason to pick Clemson: I love Alabama! Haven't wagered yet. Just wanted to make sure there were no key injuries or behavior suspensions, occurring this week. But at -6.5, I will bet big (for me) on Bama despite that I dislike Bama, Coach Saban and laying points on most occasions.

I don't believe Clemson is that good. I don't think the ACC was that good. 2 point wins vs Notre Dame and 3 point win vs Louisville, both over-rated and not that good, plus close games against a couple really bad teams, Syracuse (4-8) and South Carolina (3-9). Even their conference win vs a mildly good North Carolina team was very unimpressive, winning by 7, but giving up 38 points. Overall, a very unimpressive body of work.

Defense wins championships and Bama is far the superior defense. As a matter of fact Bama is far the superior team all around, IMO. They lost a game where they turned the ball over 5 times (and still it was a close game). Any time you turn the ball over 5 times, you will lose. If they turn the ball over 5 times in this game they will lose. But in the absence of that, Bama wins, and I believe fairly easily. They could turn the ball over 2 or 3 times and still cover, IMO.

Bama is going to Roll. I think -7.5 is low. JMHO.

Roll Tide!

Quote: Rigondeaux

In case you haven't checked or it's not obvious, Clemson's +6.5 now so it's a no brainer if you can still make or change the pick.

What I think you are suggesting is taking Clemson +7.5 in my pool. The true value of the pool pick won't be known until I find out how many are on each side, but going to estimate it to be around $200. And then take Bama -6.5 at a book, thus looking to middle the bet on the key number of 7.

I appreciate the suggestion, and while that's a sound strategy, I'm most interested in getting the pick right in the pool. I'm leaning strongly toward Alabama as I agree with everything that kewlj posted. Of course I like it better at -6.5 than -7.5.

Yeah, I guess it's going to depend on the people in the pool to a degree. I don't know the details, but if you expect the overwhelming majority to take +7.5 maybe you could go the other way.

As for hedging/middling, coincidentally just had a big discussion about this sort of thing on a sports forum. Especially for $200, I wouldn't take the other side just for the sake of middling. If -6.5 is the fair number, you're making a -ev bet for no reason. i.e. you are betting the fair number and paying juice.

If it's worth it for you in terms of enjoyment, of course do whatever you like.

I don't really handicap college football, so I don't have much opinion on who will win. I have a small future bet on Bama so I'll be rooting for them. Clemson seemed pretty good at the old number to me generically, having just thrashed OU and facing a very popular team with an iffy QB. But not enough for me to bet it. Just gonna stick with my original bet unless I see a good ML near the game.

Clemson is good, coaches, players, atmosphere...
But the SEC is the SEC.
Don't bet ACC, ever, not unless the spread gets to be AT LEAST 17. At least....;-)

Quote: MidwestAP

I'm interested in getting opinions from the forum about the national championship game, particularly about the betting lines. As I write this, Alabama is 6.5 point favorite, 51 is the over/under. I'm in several bowl pools/handicapping contests where an accurate pick here will be important as this game is worth 4x the value of a normal bowl game (the semi-finals were worth 2x).

My gut instinct was to bet Alabama as their defense, and in particular their defensive line is outstanding, yet I keep hearing that the public shouldn't overlook Clemson and that their style of football is one that can give Alabama a challenge. I follow pro ball much closer and hope there are some college football fans who can give me their opinions on the game.

Whoever the winner is gets the coverted:
Dr Pepper National Championship Trophy
yeah, that just smoothly rolls off your tongue.

omg.. could college football sell out any more?!?!

Surprised the NFL didn't shill out their Superbowl trophy.
Papa John's Lombardi Trophy anyone?

Quote: 100xOdds

Whoever the winner is gets the coverted:
Dr Pepper National Championship Trophy
yeah, that just smoothly rolls off your tongue.

Here's some "Dr. Pepper National Championship Trophy" trivia: strictly speaking, the NCAA does not recognize its winner as necessarily being the "college football national champion"; only the top teams in the final Amway/USA Today and Associated Press polls have this distinction. This is important in that only those schools are allowed to give its players "national championship rings" that are separate from anything else. Of course, it would be almost impossible for the CFP Championship Game winner not to be #1 in both polls (excluding the case where a team on a postseason ban ends up #1 in the AP poll), but there's always the possibility that something like this happens:
(a) Clemson leads by 2 points with 5 seconds left
(b) Alabama kicks a field goal that appears to go over the top of one of the uprights; the officials call the kick good, and Alabama wins the game
(c) A replay shows that part of the ball passed directly over the top of the upright, which means that the kick should have been called no good - but "a ball passing over the top of an upright" is specifically not reviewable, and the call is not changed.
(d) Just enough coaches vote Clemson ahead of Alabama anyway - AFAIK, the old BCS requirement that all of the coaches have to vote for the championship game winner as the #1 team does not apply in CFP - to put Clemson #1 in the final coaches poll; the AP sportswriters do likewise.
If you want to get really pedantic, Clemson and Alabama players aren't supposed to get separate "CFP Championship Game rings" either (there is already a rule against giving out rings for winning, as opposed to being in, a postseason game, except if you win a conference or national championship); for some administrative reason, the CFP Championship Game is not a "bowl game", and the NCAA Bylaws allow rings for bowl games but not this particular game.

"But didn't Auburn players get championship rings the year they were left out of the BCS Championship Game?" No - they got SEC Championship rings with "National Champions" carved on them. There's no rule against that, since the players were entitled to the SEC Championship rings anyway. The rule prevented the school from giving the players separate SEC and National Championship rings.

Quote: kewlj

I'll give you guys a great reason to pick Clemson: I love Alabama! Haven't wagered yet. Just wanted to make sure there were no key injuries or behavior suspensions, occurring this week. But at -6.5, I will bet big (for me) on Bama despite that I dislike Bama, Coach Saban and laying points on most occasions.

I decided not to bet so big after all. I was considering 5500 on Bama -6.5, but I don't want to dig a hole in something that really isn't my game so early in the year. I am not a professional sportsbettor, nor am I trying to be. Betting a few televised games is my entertainment and the $100 range is more my range. That has a cost of a couple dollars and that is more my speed. So that is what I wagered....Bama -6.5 for $110. And no I won't feel bad if Bama Rolls as I still think they will.

The late "meaningless" touchdown by Clemson with 12 seconds left in the game sure stings.

Quote: MidwestAP

The late "meaningless" touchdown ny Clemson with 12 seconds lwft in the game sure stings.

Would have stung much more for me, IF I had placed the bet I was originally considering.

I can't really be too upset with this particular "back door cover" loss, as I clearly "read" the game wrong. Underestimated Clemson and over estimated Alabama's defense.

I once again proved why I am limited to grinding away at the BJ tables for a living instead of making a living from the comfort of my recliner watching sports.

I did however, gain a new respect for coach Saban, who I mentioned that I was not a big fan of. The on sides kick call was brilliant. Who does that in a 24-24 game with 10 minutes left?

Well, I wish I had middled with the opener, I guess. But happy to hit my little future for $400. I was also a Bama fan growing up, so it was nice to see them win.

Little doubt that Clemson +7.5 or even 7 was a good bet.

KewlJ, why not take a more AP approach to sports? Parlay cards are not only +ev, but super fun.

If someone would have told me before the game, that Alabama would score 45 points, and not turn the ball over, I would have thought 'Bama -7 was a lock. I still can't believe that Clemson scored 40 points on the Alabama defense.

Needless to say, I lost money in my bowl pool because of this game. The only choice I had was to pick on one side of the spread or the other, and I chose poorly.

In hindsight, I should have taken BBB's earlier advice and bet the over, that was all but locked up by mid third quarter.

I had no money in this game - and I'm not a fan of any college team - but I did enjoy this game. A lot of excitement and it could easily have gone the other way.