MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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January 4th, 2016 at 6:17:28 PM permalink
I'm interested in getting opinions from the forum about the national championship game, particularly about the betting lines. As I write this, Alabama is 6.5 point favorite, 51 is the over/under. I'm in several bowl pools/handicapping contests where an accurate pick here will be important as this game is worth 4x the value of a normal bowl game (the semi-finals were worth 2x).

My gut instinct was to bet Alabama as their defense, and in particular their defensive line is outstanding, yet I keep hearing that the public shouldn't overlook Clemson and that their style of football is one that can give Alabama a challenge. I follow pro ball much closer and hope there are some college football fans who can give me their opinions on the game.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 4th, 2016 at 6:19:46 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

I'm interested in getting opinions from the forum about the national championship game, particularly about the betting lines. As I write this, Alabama is 6.5 point favorite, 51 is the over/under. I'm in several bowl pools/handicapping contests where an accurate pick here will be important as this game is worth 4x the value of a normal bowl game (the semi-finals were worth 2x).

My gut instinct was to bet Alabama as their defense, and in particular their defensive line is outstanding, yet I keep hearing that the public shouldn't overlook Clemson and that their style of football is one that can give Alabama a challenge. I follow pro ball much closer and hope there are some college football fans who can give me their opinions on the game.



Not an expert. 51 seems REALLY low for a college game. Maybe both teams are stronger defensively than offensively. But that's REALLY low for a division that routinely puts up scores in the 40's and 50's per team (at least the one that wins).
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DRich
DRich
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January 4th, 2016 at 7:12:59 PM permalink
Lay the 6.5. I expect that plus 7.5 will be available in Vegas this weekend.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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January 5th, 2016 at 7:47:56 AM permalink
Thanks for the feedback.

For one of the pools, I specifically need to pick a side on a line of 7.5. Any thoughts?
NokTang
NokTang
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January 6th, 2016 at 3:46:41 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

Thanks for the feedback.

For one of the pools, I specifically need to pick a side on a line of 7.5. Any thoughts?




The public is unaware, but Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops and Bama coach Lou Saben are good friends. They collude sometimes. A few years ago they teamed up against Florida and Urban Meyer resulting in the Bama win in the SEC Championship. Point being it will two against one coaching wise with regards to actual play calling and defensive sets. Coach Stoops will want to get back at Clemson for obvious reasons. I also envision a Bama crowd as the Clemson fans will have blown all their disposable income in Miami.

So, with that said, a bunch of nothing of course, I'd lay the points and take Alabama. Clemson just happy to be in the game. They peaked vs. Oklahoma IMHO.
TwoFeathersATL
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January 6th, 2016 at 7:36:21 PM permalink
Bama thinks they have this game in the bag, and they might.
Watch the first quarter. If Tigers get a little Mo, Katie bar the door...
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
Rigondeaux
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January 6th, 2016 at 8:57:58 PM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

Thanks for the feedback.

For one of the pools, I specifically need to pick a side on a line of 7.5. Any thoughts?



In case you haven't checked or it's not obvious, Clemson's +6.5 now so it's a no brainer if you can still make or change the pick.
kewlj
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January 7th, 2016 at 12:13:23 AM permalink
I'll give you guys a great reason to pick Clemson: I love Alabama! Haven't wagered yet. Just wanted to make sure there were no key injuries or behavior suspensions, occurring this week. But at -6.5, I will bet big (for me) on Bama despite that I dislike Bama, Coach Saban and laying points on most occasions.

I don't believe Clemson is that good. I don't think the ACC was that good. 2 point wins vs Notre Dame and 3 point win vs Louisville, both over-rated and not that good, plus close games against a couple really bad teams, Syracuse (4-8) and South Carolina (3-9). Even their conference win vs a mildly good North Carolina team was very unimpressive, winning by 7, but giving up 38 points. Overall, a very unimpressive body of work.

Defense wins championships and Bama is far the superior defense. As a matter of fact Bama is far the superior team all around, IMO. They lost a game where they turned the ball over 5 times (and still it was a close game). Any time you turn the ball over 5 times, you will lose. If they turn the ball over 5 times in this game they will lose. But in the absence of that, Bama wins, and I believe fairly easily. They could turn the ball over 2 or 3 times and still cover, IMO.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 7th, 2016 at 12:34:28 AM permalink
Bama is going to Roll. I think -7.5 is low. JMHO.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Sabretom2
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January 7th, 2016 at 3:22:47 AM permalink
Roll Tide!

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