zuti6
zuti6
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November 6th, 2015 at 2:13:24 AM permalink
Do you guys keep track of your betting history . What do you use ? Software ,writing it in journal or ?
Goal of this would be to be able to objectively determine your edge after certain period of time.
Mission146
Mission146
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November 6th, 2015 at 2:19:09 AM permalink
Depending on the game in question, the only way to, "Objectively determine your edge," would be to understand any Math relevant to the bet in question. The only thing that your betting results will objectively track is how much money you have won or lost over a certain period of time, and while that (over a significant number of trials) might point to whether or not you have an edge and approximately what it might be, your sample size will likely be insufficient to determine an absolute percentage edge.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
zuti6
zuti6
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November 7th, 2015 at 2:21:26 PM permalink
" the only way to, "Objectively determine your edge," would be to understand any Math relevant to the bet in question."
Im not sure what exactly you mean. Are you talking about calculating real winning probability for a team based on your statistics and other subjective factors and then comparing it to bookmakers odds and implied probability of a bookie taking into account the juice and then betting if you see value? Or is there more to that?
Mission146
Mission146
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November 7th, 2015 at 3:35:44 PM permalink
That's my point: In sports betting, there doesn't seem a hard way to calculate your edge with any concrete degree of certainty. I mean, Wizard's Half Point Parlay Cards are good based on historical data, as well as prop bets for this, that or the other...but you can't come up with anything concrete.

You were talking about calculating an advantage based on YOUR action, though. I'm suggesting that, even with substantial lifetime action, the best you'll ever get is an approximation.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
TomG
TomG
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November 7th, 2015 at 7:43:23 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

That's my point: In sports betting, there doesn't seem a hard way to calculate your edge with any concrete degree of certainty.



Compare to odds of the bet made against the closing price.

Quote: Mission146

...but you can't come up with anything concrete.



Why can't I?
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