Wizard
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Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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August 2nd, 2010 at 3:00:56 PM permalink
Quote: SolidAU


Alas, Wiz, for those of us in the USA, Pinnacle is unavailable...



There are back doors. The main one is using an "agent" who is registered outside the US. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the way it works is the agent pays Pinnacle some access to fee to book bets via their web site, but the agent (bookie) is the one booking the action. The hard part is finding the agent, but it isn't that hard.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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August 2nd, 2010 at 3:22:21 PM permalink
Ok good Wizard... I didn't really disagree with you then. I didn't really want to :)

Yes, the lines move fast and when you find a good one you have to jump on it right away. Some of these sports books don't have a ton of money going on the games, so if someone or a few people bet on one side it changes the numbers drastically.

Another side note to the arbitrage using online books. To do it the right way you have to be from another Country other than the U.S. Many of the good sports betting sites that you would have to use don't allow U.S. players.


Some day when they open up sports betting and probably online poker to all U.S. players, I'm going to town with this stuff :)
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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August 2nd, 2010 at 3:23:56 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The hard part is finding the agent, but it isn't that hard.



The hard part is finding one that doesn't end up ripping you off of the $15,000 you have on account with them!
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Wizard
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Wizard
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August 2nd, 2010 at 4:17:09 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

The hard part is finding one that doesn't end up ripping you off of the $15,000 you have on account with them!



I sense there is a story behind that remark. I'm all ears, if you have the inclination to tell it.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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August 2nd, 2010 at 6:24:13 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I'm a politics junkie, and I'd like to make a number of wagers on races and ballot issues before November. Is there anywhere I can go that will book that kind of action?

I think what you are looking for is a Prediction Market. You can even bid on a bet on rainfall in New Jersey... although I think that the market (Weather Bill?) requires a deposit of one million dollars to open an account. I always wondered how the market would thrive when weather reporting stations are often volunteer operated and have few safeguards against someone taking a garden hose and spraying a rain gauge in the middle of the night.

One guy analyzed the Same Sex Marriage Ballot Measure in Maine and decided that many who had emotional views on the issue were misjudging the conservative nature of the population and he bought what were essentially futures on the election results. That guy had turned his initial fifty dollar deposit into fifty thousand and stood ready to reveal his entire history on that Prediction Market site. He was, I believe, a physicist and developed much of the Prediction Market software.

As for Risk Arbitrage in Vegas Sportsbooks... The M Resort allows personal computers in their sports book, one of the few places that does so. I've used the analogy before but I think this is a good time to repeat it: Risk Arbitrage can be like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. You have to be nimble, you can't look at that steam roller ever, but you only have to forget about it once! Some people have often made bets with books as soon as the line opened ... because the initial odds are often deemed to be not what the bettors think but what the bookie hopes they will think. Oddsmakers can be wrong or out of touch with events. You can see this in the commodities markets sometimes. The "oddsmakers", oops, major financial investment advisers, announce their opinion that the world sugar market will open down three cents and it opens instead at up ten cents which is the daily limit. Or you get a situation such as May of 1963(?) where the market opened down the limit and did so for ten successive days. Just think what someone who was slow lifting a leg did? That is, he got ONE side of his arbitrage bet down but didn't get the other side down in time.

Some of this stuff is like that One Million Dollar insurance policy on Betty Grable's legs. Yes, the movie studio did indeed take out that policy, but in the Re-insurance market they were quick to make sure ten separate companies carried the actual risk. I think you can read some of the Lederer biographies in the poker world and see what some of these people do. Massive amounts of privately raised money with zillions of phone calls and dozens of runners in Vegas and New York. Cops even raided the place once thinking it was a bookie joint rather than an investment book. One guy decades ago opened a Hedge Fund that was funded virtually overnight based on a few phone calls to Old Money types. He was a monk with degrees in philosophy and religion who decided he wanted to go to Wall Street instead. Some compliance types from the Treasury showed up during a banking crisis and decided the monk knew more about what was going on than the bankers did.

Its obviously a world that is beyond my math skills and certainly beyond my bank roll abilities too.

You might be interested in blog.oddhead.com. Its run by a Yahoo Research Scientist in NYC. Its a good start for prediction markets. I've not visited it in a real long time but I think its still active.
Aussie
Aussie
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August 3rd, 2010 at 5:21:35 AM permalink
Plenty of trading opportunities on Betfair.com. Betting in-play when the odds change considerably as the games go on offer excellent chances to lock in a profit. Not sure if Betfair is allowed in the US though.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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August 3rd, 2010 at 6:34:42 AM permalink
One very brutal and prolonged murder of a young married couple took place in the UK and is thought to have involved a telecommunications failure involving a game in Manchester, a bankroll in China and a sports website in the Ukraine. I think the final few moments of the game were delayed by satellite transmission and a cell phone call that should have given more timely results was not made. The failure to make the phone call was punished in a protracted manner and the case remains unsolved so it seems there are some hazards to certain aspects of in-game betting.
Aussie
Aussie
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August 4th, 2010 at 12:19:05 AM permalink
Betfair matches the action of anonymous people so no risk of anything as serious as that. It allows backers and layers to agree to a wager in the same way a stock market allows buyers and sellers agree to trade stocks.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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August 4th, 2010 at 11:08:22 AM permalink
Quote: Aussie

Betfair matches the action of anonymous people so no risk of anything as serious as that. It allows backers and layers to agree to a wager in the same way a stock market allows buyers and sellers agree to trade stocks.



I know folks who made a useful side income arbitraging on the spreads in the UK... they took a couple of hits when one leg of the arb wasn't taken, and their phone call was sometimes enough to get lines to change, but they still made 10-15 grand a year.

Tax free.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Peeig
Peeig
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August 5th, 2010 at 11:53:10 AM permalink
All I will say, is that there are definitely people arbitraging in the sports betting markets and it is a +EV play.

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