Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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July 26th, 2015 at 12:37:53 PM permalink
I think there is often value to be found in these. Much like the Super Bowl props, but with less scrutiny. The limits are low, the books hold your money for months, so things are not always very tight.

Also, these are fun bets. You can often bet a little to win a lot and you have things to root for all season. So, even if you make a -ev bet, it's not the end of the world.

I'm fine with discussing win totals, and bet some of those. But I really like the more exotic props. Here are the odds for comeback player of the year, to get the ball rolling.




One way value can appear in these heavily juiced bets is when a favorite is dead. I really don't see how AP wins this award, regardless of what he achieves on the field. He wasn't injured. He didn't have a difficult season. He wasn't even suspended for drugs. He was playing fine, then he got caught beating the shit out of a child and lost his gig for a while. If he continues playing well now, are a sufficient number of people going to look at this scenario and say, "let's reward this incredible comeback!" Even if they want to give the award to AP, are they going to want to take all the heat for doing so?

So, if that is correct, there should be some value on one or more of these other guys. But which ones?

Well, let's look at the recent winners:

2000 Joe Johnson, DE, New Orleans[12]
2001 Garrison Hearst, RB, San Francisco[13]
2002 Tommy Maddox, QB, Pittsburgh[14]
2003 Jon Kitna, QB, Cincinnati[15]
2004 Drew Brees, QB, San Diego[16]
2005 (tie) Tedy Bruschi, LB, New England[17]
2005 (tie) Steve Smith, WR, Carolina[17]
2006 Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets[18]
2007 Greg Ellis, LB, Dallas[19]
2008 Chad Pennington (2), QB, Miami[20]
2009 Tom Brady, QB, New England[21]
2010 Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia[22]
2011 Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit[23]
2012 Peyton Manning, QB, Denver[24]
2013 Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego[25]
2014 Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England[26]

With all that in mind, who do you like?
Mission146
Mission146
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July 27th, 2015 at 10:20:21 PM permalink
Is, "Field," a choice or will one of the guys on the list definitely win?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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July 28th, 2015 at 3:49:01 AM permalink
There's no field. Those were just the top however many could fit on my screen.

Here are the rest. If you hit on Favre, you'd be rich

Others available include first coach to be fired, coach of the year and leaders in rushing, passing and recieving, which are also available in Vegas.

I put a little on Benjamin to lead the league in receiving at +6500. He's got enough talent and is Newton's number one target by a wide margin, so he might get enough targets.

Also laid -530 that Tebow will not start a game at QB.


Victor Cruz +3300
Colin Kaepernick +4000
Jerod Mayo +4000
Jordan Cameron +4000
Mike Wallace +4500
Andre Johnson +5000
Brian Cushing +5000
Brian Hoyer +5000
Danny Trevathan +5000
Doug Martin +5000
Geno Smith +5000
Robert Mathis +5000
Brian Orakpo +6600
Jairus Byrd +6600
Jarred Allen +6600
Johnny Manziel +6600
LeSean McCoy +6600
Matt Cassel +6600
Micahel Crabtree +6600
Vontaze Burfict +8000
Darnell Dockett +10000
Dennis Pitta +10000
EJ Manuel +10000
Geno Atkins +10000
Greg Jennings +10000
Josh McCown +10000
Michael Crabtree +10000
Charles Tillman +15000
Matt Schaub +15000
Matt Hasselbeck +20000
Tim Tebow +20000
Brett Favre +200000
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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July 28th, 2015 at 6:02:24 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Others available include first coach to be fired, coach of the year and leaders in rushing, passing and recieving, which are also available in Vegas.

Are you saying that Comeback Player of the Year and Coach of the Year futures are available in Vegas? I didn't think you could bet on "voted" awards in sportsbooks. Has anyone ever seen a Vegas book take action on the Super Bowl MVP?
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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July 28th, 2015 at 10:30:49 AM permalink
Sorry, badly written. The season leaders are available in LV. Also TD leader (all positions), longest FG, longest play from scrimmage and some player vs. player stuff.
Gabes22
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July 28th, 2015 at 10:38:21 AM permalink
What would Jay Cutler be coming back from besides being a crappy QB his entire career. I think Peterson would be a great choice if not for the PR disaster. Lets not forget he beat the ever living crap out of his kid to the extent there were still gashes on him two full weeks after the beating. That's going to be a non-starter for many with votes in their hands
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
Gabes22
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July 28th, 2015 at 10:45:11 AM permalink
TD leader all positions. I will go this way
QB: Luck or Brees. Year after year these QBs get over 600 attempts when most QBs are barely into the 500s
WR: Jordy Nelson. I think the emergence of DaVante Adams and Richard Rodgers is going to make the Packers offense lethal, and having 5 legitimate threats at the skill positions is going to reduce double teams
RB: Is alway a tough one. I am hesitant to go against my top two picks in Murray and McCoy since they are in new organizations, Forte would be a good pick however he is getting up to that magic RB age of 30, same concerns with Lynch, perhaps a Le'Veon Bell or an Eddie Lacy
A flute with no holes is not a flute, a donut with no holes is a danish
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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August 2nd, 2015 at 6:22:10 PM permalink
Still no bets other than the WR and "No Tebow," which is causing me some minor concern with the rumors of a Barkley trade to make way for him on the third string.

For comeback player, I like Bradford as QBs tend to get the award and he will be in a great system. I also like Eric Berry, as he is a high enough profile player to get attention, even though he's on Defence and because he's coming back from cancer. A bit more of an uplifting story than coming back from beating your kid.

Unfortunately the odds have moved on Berry and +1200 isn't quite enough for me to jump on Bradford unless I at least know he's healthy to start the season. Probably just keeping an eye on those for now. But I really want to bet something to fade AP so long as he is the heavy favorite.
NokTang
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August 15th, 2015 at 6:27:13 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux



Also laid -530 that Tebow will not start a game at QB.



I read he's starting this Sunday, preseason of course. You may know your answer sooner than you think. He's loved in Philly and may well start the first game of the regular season. I haven't seen this line, where did you get it and what did the "will start a game" pay? I guess it's obvious, but they could start someone else and then put him in quickly if said "starter" has a bad outing. Thank you.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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August 16th, 2015 at 4:20:17 AM permalink
It was on 5d. I don't think it's up anymore. I don't remember what "will start a game" was. I remember you could get + money on him just making the roster.

I am slightly nervous about this now, but I don't think there's much shot of him being the opening day starter over Bradford. Always keep in mind, the media and even coaches and the like need narratives.

This is a guy who last played in 2012, I think, and wasn't all that good then. I'm more worried he makes the roster, and either Kelly plays him the first series of a game as some kind of gimmick, or Bradford gets injured (hey, it could happen) and he moves ahead of Sanchize.
NokTang
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August 16th, 2015 at 7:17:27 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux


This is a guy who last played in 2012, I think, and wasn't all that good then. .



I thought he'd only skipped last season(2014). Time flies....you are right, two year layoff is a lot.

Curious, and just for discussion purposes, if he were to start a game, lets just say the first game, do these books immediately settle the bets or do they make you wait until the end of the season? Same question regarding things like total rushing yards etc.? Warmest regards.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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August 16th, 2015 at 10:14:13 PM permalink
Tebow 50% complete, 5.8 YPA and 3 sacks today. So that's a bit of a relief. But I guess you could say that even a basic level of competence with so much layoff is pretty impressive.

For MLB props 5dimes has settled right away, if they notice. Jake Arrieta already went over his win total and they paid. Nelson Cruz went over his HR total and they haven't paid, but they probably would if I asked them to. I have a boatload of MLB props and don't mind waiting though.

I hit one with William Hill (brick and mortar) and haven't tried to cash it yet. More than 2.5 MLB players have hit for the cycle. I could wait, but I might as well try to cash it now just so I know for future reference.


Today bet LSU to win the National Championship at The Wynn. They have it at 25-1, which is better than all the overseas books, 5dimes and Caesars. Haven't checked the others, but that seemed like a decent enough sample for my $40 bet.

This was a fairly square bet in that it's just based on listening to Phil Steele talk them up, spotting a good price and wanting something to root for.

I'm keeping an eye on the NFL rushing leaders. Foster's missing the start of the year, which rules him out. He was +1250. Another injury or two might create some value in the rest of the field.
NokTang
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August 17th, 2015 at 5:09:17 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux


This was a fairly square bet in that it's just based on listening to Phil Steele talk them up, spotting a good price and wanting something to root for.



It's an interesting way to gamble on sports. Your money certainly will last longer and you often have a chance to get even or make money as the season progresses. I watched one of those podcast things last night on the ACC. It seems like every team is "rebuilding" and has lost a lot of starters. Maybe that's true every year, I don't know. North Carolina State was interesting because of a very weak schedule and number of starters returning. On the other hand, Clemson seems to be in big trouble for the same opposite reasons.
kewlj
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August 17th, 2015 at 5:15:43 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

It's an interesting way to gamble on sports. Your money certainly will last longer and you often have a chance to get even or make money as the season progresses.



Didn't work that way for me last year. lol. My eagles win total under bet was in trouble from the beginning as they got off to a much better start than I anticipated. It did come down to final week as these things strangely often do, but instead of being in a position of hedging to guarantee a win, the best I could do was hedge to minimize my loss. :(
kewlj
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August 17th, 2015 at 5:20:49 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Tebow 50% complete, 5.8 YPA and 3 sacks today. So that's a bit of a relief. But I guess you could say that even a basic level of competence with so much layoff is pretty impressive.



Rig, I have no monetary interest on the eagles as I did last year with a losing under season win wager, but as a fan of the birds, I am would not want your no Tebow start a game wager. I am deathly afraid they intend to play him a fair amount. Barkley is likely to be traded or released.

When Bradford goes down (notice when, not if), it wouldn't surprise my (another way of putting it is I am afraid...) Tebow will end up starting over sanchez, even though sanchez is technically ahead of him on depth charts.
Rigondeaux
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August 17th, 2015 at 5:25:59 PM permalink
Quote: NokTang

It's an interesting way to gamble on sports.



I love it. If you make a pretty bad bet, even at $100 you might be losing $50 on average, for almost a whole season of action. Of course, I'm not trying to do that. But it's a great recreational bet.

I only bet $40 on LSU. And, as I said, I think you can find some good to great bets if you do some work. Just haven't found anything special in college yet.

MLB this season: I got the Jays to win the WS at 24-1 (looking good). That might be mostly luck.

But, I've got 2 of the top 3 guys for saves (Rosenthal and Kimbral. I win big if Rosenthal does it, win small if Kimbral.) Different books had odds all over the place, so it was like one roulette wheel with a few different betting boards, all with skewed payouts.


One had Janson as the favorite, even though he was injured. There was definitely value to be had. Rosenthal was 20-1!

I don't care what the takeout is. 20-1 on Rosenthal was easy. Sadly, didn't touch Melancon or I'd have it locked up.

Anyway, football seems a bit tougher, but some openings are starting to emerge.
NokTang
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August 18th, 2015 at 8:00:40 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux


Anyway, football seems a bit tougher, but some openings are starting to emerge.



Have you seen "win" totals in college football and if yes, do they include the championship games, playoff(BCS) and/or bowl games? Another rare example comes to mind as well, last year a game was canceled due to weather (Florida vs. Idaho), maybe others as well. This I suppose could happen again and in the NFL as well. These situations spelled out?
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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August 22nd, 2015 at 1:50:14 PM permalink
College win totals are out. I don't know what happens if a game is canceled, but my assumption would be that you still have action. Conf. championship games and bowl games do not apply.

Quote: kewlj

Rig, I have no monetary interest on the eagles as I did last year with a losing under season win wager, but as a fan of the birds, I am would not want your no Tebow start a game wager. I am deathly afraid they intend to play him a fair amount. Barkley is likely to be traded or released.

When Bradford goes down (notice when, not if), it wouldn't surprise my (another way of putting it is I am afraid...) Tebow will end up starting over sanchez, even though sanchez is technically ahead of him on depth charts.



Yeah, I'm not thrilled with it at all right now. At the time, it just looked like a longshot the book was offering the Tebow faithful to take their money, but I didn't really consider the Kelly factor.

I like to lay a lot on these types of things--Oscar bets, politics, certain boxing matches. I might have stepped in it on this one.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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September 5th, 2015 at 4:34:45 PM permalink
WHEEEEW!!!!! Tebow Cut.

There's a final round of bets up. Which kicker will lead the league in points?

Gostowski or whatever from NE has led for 3 years running and is +500. I hate betting the favorite in these but was poised to do so, till remembering the rule changes.

If the more open minded coaches like Bill B and Kelly are going to mess around with 2 pointers, that could create a lot of value. Do we have a good sense of which coaches will try for two a decent % and which will not? I'm gonna try to figure it out.

Also, there are props up for the highest and lowest scoring teams. I think Manning and the Broncos are going to continue falling off here. I kind of like the Eagles, but 8-1 seems borderline.

For lowest scoring team, I'm looking at the lambs at 20-1. A lot of people consider Foles a downgrade at QB and he'll be learning a new system. Fischer is kind of in trouble. I can see it all imploding and they were already poor on offence. Plus they play in a defence oriented division.

There's also best and worst records, but that strikes me as more of a crapshoot.
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