Advantage Sports Betting
Quote: hailtotheskinsI read something the wizard mentioned in an interview about how AP sports betting would be better to take up than card counting. What does that mean? Is it analyzing advanced metrics or just searching for the best odds or parlay cards or what have you? Any clarification would be helpful. Would like a little action this coming football season
I think your question would be best answered by searching for extensive discussions the Wizard has generated and/or participated in on this forum; there are several, referring to half-point parlay cards, proposition betting, several other angles. He's been pretty generous in discussing his methods and what to look for on spreads and points. It's a huge topic on here, though there's not a sports betting sub-forum. The search button on the dark blue menu bar above confines your searches to this site, so it shouldn't be too difficult to intercept some threads and then read them from the start. Hope you find what you're looking for!
Quote: hailtotheskinsI read something the wizard mentioned in an interview about how AP sports betting would be better to take up than card counting. What does that mean? Is it analyzing advanced metrics or just searching for the best odds or parlay cards or what have you? Any clarification would be helpful. Would like a little action this coming football season
Last season he posted his selections most weeks. So, for free, if he continues to do it, you will have money in the bank so they all say. I personally saw too many losers and losing weeks to "buy in" to the theory but whatever rocks your boat mate.
If you don't think the Wizard has an advantage on sports you're off your rocker. He doesn't claim to be a handicapper. He usually has sound logic that's usually backed up by data.Quote: NokTangLast season he posted his selections most weeks. So, for free, if he continues to do it, you will have money in the bank so they all say. I personally saw too many losers and losing weeks to "buy in" to the theory but whatever rocks your boat mate.
Quote: AxelWolfIf you don't think the Wizard has an advantage on sports you're off your rocker. He doesn't claim to be a handicapper. He usually has sound logic that's usually backed up by data.
Data is easy as pie to produce. Past data that is. Future data? I'm all eyes/ears. I think in the long run, as someone who understands "vig" aka "juice" aka the true odds on parlays, one can only say what becomes obvious.
I'm not sure what you're getting at. Are you suggesting people can't get a long term advantage onQuote: NokTangData is easy as pie to produce. Past data that is. Future data? I'm all eyes/ears. I think in the long run, as someone who understands "vig" aka "juice" aka the true odds on parlays, one can only say what becomes obvious.
sports?
Yea its possible.
One name as an example
Billy Walters. He cant make a large bet in person. Sports books view him as an advantage player that they will lose money to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6FAUQ6SFKM
Quote: AxelWolfI'm not sure what you're getting at. Are you suggesting people can't get a long term advantage on
sports?
Yes I am, due to the vig/juice on straight bets and odds on various cards being in the houses favor along with of course the money line representing a less than even chance of winning money in the long term.
Quote: NokTangYes I am, due to the vig/juice on straight bets and odds on various cards being in the houses favor along with of course the money line representing a less than even chance of winning money in the long term.
I rest my case.Quote: NokTangAfter playing a lot of single zero roulette here in Cambodia, I think I can beat the game.
Quote: AxelWolfI rest my case.
We are discussing sports wagering, not single zero roulette. This is a civil forum, no need to resort to vicious personal attacks and innuendos. If you think anyone can create an advantage vs. the sportsbooks in sports wagering, go ahead, make our day.
Quote: NokTangWe are discussing sports wagering, not single zero roulette. This is a civil forum, no need to resort to vicious personal attacks and innuendos. If you think anyone can create an advantage vs. the sportsbooks in sports wagering, go ahead, make our day.
I think most professional sports bettors would tell you it's nothing about picking winners and losers. It is about identifying overlays and avoiding underlays. AP probably had at most a 25% chance of winning. Was he priced right?
The pool minus the vig is created by the wagering public (pari-mutuel) My observations of the typical group at a horse track don't impress me. I think the pro is smart at recognizing and identifying the underlays and avoiding them. This has nothing to do with the sportsbook. The true greats at identifying horses that are layed wrong are the ones who sports books probably fear.
Disclaimer- I can count the number of horse wagers I've made in my life on two hands. But I definitely believe there are people taking advantage of sports wagering everyday.
I'm not sure what more proof you need with an example already being provided.
That's a bit over the top, In no way was that a personal attack or insult nor was it meant to be.Quote: NokTangWe are discussing sports wagering, not single zero roulette. This is a civil forum, no need to resort to vicious personal attacks and innuendos. If you think anyone can create an advantage vs. the sportsbooks in sports wagering, go ahead, make our day.
Yes, my point was that anyone claiming they think they can beat roulette (00 or single) but doesn't think anyone can beat sports seems strange. This really is ass backwards. Quite a few guys beat sports consistently using various methods. No one that isn't clocking wheels, finding biases or using promotions has an advantage on roulette.
Do some research and you might change your mind. The majority of gambling authorities and AP community will tell you it's absolutely possible and guys are doing it.
What kind of proof or evidence do you need to convince you?
I know guys that have been making money for years.
I know runners that have been employed by the same sports bettors for years.
I'm fairly sure the Wizard is a winning sports bettor.
Quote: RonC
I'm not sure what more proof you need with an example already being provided.
I don't read any proof provided with example(s). Please help us.
As I've explained elsewhere, the bookie or sportsbook works on the vig/juice. The sales pitch about "only paying vig on losers" is a misnomer. Credit play is the key to that fallacy..
Wagers total....... $10000.
$5500....bet on one side...
$5500....bet on the other side...
The bookie/sportsbook makes $500. on $10000. in action, over the long run(not necessarily one game/event). That's five percent on the handle. That's their goal, and I'm sure they meet it or as indicated below, exceed it.
The percent is even higher on parlays and of course, with 20% lines.
Quote: AxelWolf
Yes, my point was that anyone claiming they think they can beat roulette (00 or single) but doesn't think anyone can beat sports seems strange. This really is ass backwards. Quite a few guys beat sports consistently using various methods. No one that isn't clocking wheels, finding biases or using promotions has an advantage on roulette.
.
The roulette comment was a joke. I'm sorry you didn't get it or the context. Many times I sit at the roulette table in Phnom Penh, surrounded by four or five willing and able females just hoping I like them, who a large bettor like me attracts and they aren't discouraged or run off, see a streak and realize I didn't jump on it(the streak) and think to myself, "I'm a dumbass" for being a chicken shit and ass backwards as you call it. I could have continued to press a unit at a time and in the end had $5000-$10000. instead of just winning $1500.usd and heading to the cashier window(still followed by all five lasses).
I say you can't and won't beat sports, when playing with cash money, because of the vig/juice/payouts. I'm not referring to pari mutual pools but places like dog tracks bring in the under current of society and are most likely fixed. So unless you are in on the fix, dogs and horses are going to also break you. You can feed a dog popcorn and no way will he/she win a race. When you eliminate two or three dogs from a field of eight, you can make money, but not fortunes. Fixing sporting events such as the NCAA or NFL must be more difficult.
Quote: AxelWolf
Do some research and you might change your mind. The majority of gambling authorities and AP community will tell you it's absolutely possible and guys are doing it.
In my opinion only, those are the guys selling picks. Needless to say I guess, I find them funny at best, crooked at worst. Looking at a sports event after it occurs is always 20/20 and means nothing. I read on one web site you can get picks for the special price of $3700.usd a month. It's all a play on the naive who don't grasp the concept that everything is based upon past events and statistics which don't impact the next game.
Quote: NokTangIn my opinion only, those are the guys selling picks. Needless to say I guess, I find them funny at best, crooked at worst. Looking at a sports event after it occurs is always 20/20 and means nothing. I read on one web site you can get picks for the special price of $3700.usd a month. It's all a play on the naive who don't grasp the concept that everything is based upon past events and statistics which don't impact the next game.
The guy who runs this site (Wizard) is a sports bettor and i am certain he makes bets that are +ev. We can bet on that if you want.
Quote: djatcThe guy who runs this site (Wizard) is a sports bettor and i am certain he makes bets that are +ev. We can bet on that if you want.
We can bet on exactly what? +ev, "advantage play", etc.? Have you ever heard the expression "the odds are stacked against you"? I've seen wizard's picks on here. What he writes always makes sense. However, I don't feel like he or anyone overcome the vig/juice as I've outlined. So what if you gain a one percent "advantage" or "expected value" if you are paying ten percent for the privilege ?
BTW djatc, as an admirer of your move to Las Vegas and story about it last year, can you at this point advise us where you found a good reasonably priced studio apartment or room(private, not semi private) near the strip and supermarket? Kind regards.
Quote: NokTangIn my opinion only, those are the guys selling picks. Needless to say I guess, I find them funny at best, crooked at worst. Looking at a sports event after it occurs is always 20/20 and means nothing. I read on one web site you can get picks for the special price of $3700.usd a month. It's all a play on the naive who don't grasp the concept that everything is based upon past events and statistics which don't impact the next game.
Here is what you dont get.
Past events and statistics are used to set the line.
In reality sportsbooks are simply taking an educated geuss on where to set the line.
Sharp AP sports bettors do their own research on setting the line.
In reality, the line is a gray area. Thats why sportsbooks adjust the line as money comes in. If one side is real heavy, they adjust it because the original line was mistake. AP's take advantage of these line movements.
Most times the sports books and AP sports bettors come to the same conclusion on setting the line.
Sometimes AP sports bettors come to a different conclusion and thats the advantage.
Billy Walters knows sportsbooks will change a line and he works that to his advantage.
He thinks a sportsbooks line is soft and his research giving him a different line, he will have a minion place a large bet to push the sportsbook to change a line.
The sportsbook flinches,changes the line and Billy puts huge money on the other side actually getting the book to give him an extra point.
There's other ways to beat sports as well.Quote: terapinedHere is what you dont get.
Past events and statistics are used to set the line.
In reality sportsbooks are simply taking an educated geuss on where to set the line.
Sharp AP sports bettors do their own research on setting the line.
In reality, the line is a gray area. Thats why sportsbooks adjust the line as money comes in. If one side is real heavy, they adjust it because the original line was mistake. AP's take advantage of these line movements.
Most times the sports books and AP sports bettors come to the same conclusion on setting the line.
Sometimes AP sports bettors come to a different conclusion and thats the advantage.
Billy Walters knows sportsbooks will change a line and he works that to his advantage.
He thinks a sportsbooks line is soft and his research giving him a different line, he will have a minion place a large bet to push the sportsbook to change a line.
The sportsbook flinches,changes the line and Billy puts huge money on the other side actually getting the book to give him an extra point.
Quote: NokTangI don't read any proof provided with example(s). Please help us.
As I've explained elsewhere, the bookie or sportsbook works on the vig/juice. The sales pitch about "only paying vig on losers" is a misnomer. Credit play is the key to that fallacy..
Wagers total....... $10000.
$5500....bet on one side...
$5500....bet on the other side...
The bookie/sportsbook makes $500. on $10000. in action, over the long run(not necessarily one game/event). That's five percent on the handle. That's their goal, and I'm sure they meet it or as indicated below, exceed it.
The percent is even higher on parlays and of course, with 20% lines.
Did you view the 60 Minutes link posted earlier?
The guy has a jet paid for with money made from betting sports with an advantage. This from an article about him:
"What's clear, according to dozens of interviews and thousands of pages of legal documents, is that Walters beats the odds everywhere -- in the stock market, real estate, criminal proceedings and his true wheelhouse, sports gambling. His talent brought him from a life of poverty in rural Kentucky to one of wild success."
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12280555/how-billy-walters-became-sports-most-successful-controversial-bettor
Of course he is controversial...the casinos would love to see him shutdown and I am betting that they have asked for investigations. The IRS would obviously investigate to make sure taxes were properly paid. Any time you know people involved in questionable trades, you might fall under investigation.
NONE of that detracts from the fact that he is a winning sports bettor. He is playing at an advantage by gathering as much or more information as the odds makers, and then playing it in a way that takes advantage of the lines.
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12280555/how-billy-walters-became-sports-most-successful-controversial-bettor
It has been mentioned here and in other places that one needs to win 52.38% of bets to make up for the built-in house advantage.
Quote: NokTangWe can bet on exactly what? +ev, "advantage play", etc.? Have you ever heard the expression "the odds are stacked against you"? I've seen wizard's picks on here. What he writes always makes sense. However, I don't feel like he or anyone overcome the vig/juice as I've outlined. So what if you gain a one percent "advantage" or "expected value" if you are paying ten percent for the privilege ?
BTW djatc, as an admirer of your move to Las Vegas and story about it last year, can you at this point advise us where you found a good reasonably priced studio apartment or room(private, not semi private) near the strip and supermarket? Kind regards.
I will make a bet that the last 5 sports bets the Wizard made have some sort of advantage. Even with the juice/vig. If the expected value is higher than the loss there is an advantage.
Quote: RonC
It has been mentioned here and in other places that one needs to win 52.38% of bets to make up for the built-in house advantage.
I've not read that, and I do try to keep up.......
The house advantage is generally speaking, you have to bet ten percent more than you want/will win... Bet $110. to win $100.. How does this translate or calculate to one needing to only win 52.38% of the bets(assuming they are equal in amount) to cover this?
Quote: RonCDid you view the 60 Minutes link posted earlier?.
Yes, and I had seen it before as well. Good for him. I'm not one of his minions or pilots. Wish I was I suppose. I just think he's very lucky and and am happy for him, not angry at him.
Quote: NokTangI've not read that, and I do try to keep up.......
The house advantage is generally speaking, you have to bet ten percent more than you want/will win... Bet $110. to win $100.. How does this translate or calculate to one needing to only win 52.38% of the bets(assuming they are equal in amount) to cover this?
Simple math 52.38*1-47.62*1.1=0 or round about. It isn't quite perfect but pretty dang close. Given the cited example was winning 60% that means they had a 60*1-40*1.1=16% advantage on average amongst all their bets. Even a 55% hit rate given the size of wagers allowed on sports betting could lead to massive amounts of winnings.
Quote: NokTangYes, and I had seen it before as well. Good for him. I'm not one of his minions or pilots. Wish I was I suppose. I just think he's very lucky and and am happy for him, not angry at him.
So your position, with the evidence presented, is that he is not playing with an advantage and that he has simply been lucky to have the win rates that he has had?
Quote: RonCSo your position, with the evidence presented, is that he is not playing with an advantage and that he has simply been lucky to have the win rates that he has had?
Yes.
Quote: RonCSo your position, with the evidence presented, is that he is not playing with an advantage and that he has simply been lucky to have the win rates that he has had?
Quote: NokTangYes.
Okay. There you have it. Pretty solid evidence of an individual betting sports at an advantage--making bets to move the line, hammering the better line, gathering copious amounts of data, unwelcome in casinos, etc.--and you believe it is "luck." "Luck" may play a part; of course, "luck" is defined mathematically here as a combination of things, but we'll just call it "luck" for this post..."luck" may make him win more or less percentage-wise but more of the wins can be attributed to working hard, knowing as much or more than the bookmakers, and betting acumen than simply "luck."
Given the information proved, what would prove AP sports betting to you?
I really doesn't matter what you show him. It's blatantly obvious people can and do make money sports betting. If he hasn't realized that by now It almost certain he wont. He's in a vast minority of people that don't believe it's possible and probable.Quote: RonCOkay. There you have it. Pretty solid evidence of an individual betting sports at an advantage--making bets to move the line, hammering the better line, gathering copious amounts of data, unwelcome in casinos, etc.--and you believe it is "luck." "Luck" may play a part; of course, "luck" is defined mathematically here as a combination of things, but we'll just call it "luck" for this post..."luck" may make him win more or less percentage-wise but more of the wins can be attributed to working hard, knowing as much or more than the bookmakers, and betting acumen than simply "luck."
Given the information proved, what would prove AP sports betting to you?
I can prove that its possible to make sports bets and make money however unless he wants to make a side wager I'm not going to wast time.
I really doesn't matter what you show him. It's blatantly obvious people can and do make money sports betting. If he hasn't realized that by now It almost certain he wont. He's in a vast minority of people that don't believe it's possible and probable.Quote: RonCOkay. There you have it. Pretty solid evidence of an individual betting sports at an advantage--making bets to move the line, hammering the better line, gathering copious amounts of data, unwelcome in casinos, etc.--and you believe it is "luck." "Luck" may play a part; of course, "luck" is defined mathematically here as a combination of things, but we'll just call it "luck" for this post..."luck" may make him win more or less percentage-wise but more of the wins can be attributed to working hard, knowing as much or more than the bookmakers, and betting acumen than simply "luck."
Given the information proved, what would prove AP sports betting to you?
I can prove that its possible to make sports bets and make money however unless he wants to make a side wager I'm not going to wast time.
Quote: NokTangI've not read that, and I do try to keep up.......
The house advantage is generally speaking, you have to bet ten percent more than you want/will win... Bet $110. to win $100.. How does this translate or calculate to one needing to only win 52.38% of the bets(assuming they are equal in amount) to cover this?
It's really risk $110 to get back $210 on your winning bet. Thus:
110 / 210 = 0.5238
Also, risk $110 on one side and $110 on the other, means losing $10 on $220 bet, or a house advantage of 10 / 220 = 4.55%, not the other figures you were trying to claim
If you can't understand the basic fractions involved in sports betting, it's no wonder you can't understand why and how some people are able to overcome the juice
Quote: NokTangI don't read any proof provided with example(s). Please help us.
As I've explained elsewhere, the bookie or sportsbook works on the vig/juice. The sales pitch about "only paying vig on losers" is a misnomer. Credit play is the key to that fallacy..
Wagers total....... $10000.
$5500....bet on one side...
$5500....bet on the other side...
The bookie/sportsbook makes $500. on $10000. in action, over the long run(not necessarily one game/event). That's five percent on the handle. That's their goal, and I'm sure they meet it or as indicated below, exceed it.
The percent is even higher on parlays and of course, with 20% lines.
First, even your addition is off, $5500 + $5500 does not equal $10000.
Second, you are making the assumption that the people setting the odds have all the information and the people betting against them have zero information. You also fail to accept that the prices can change. They do every single day. Just yesterday there was a time when the Diamondbacks were -120 favorites at Boyd, while the Mets were +123 underdogs at South Point. I preferred Arizona and bet them at that price. I also parlayed them with the under because if the home team wins, it is very likely they won't bat in the bottom of the ninth (if the road team wins, the other team will bat in the bottom of the ninth, giving a slight edge to the over). If I had no preference, I could have bet so there was zero risk and guaranteed profit before the first pitch was ever thrown.
Another example from yesterday. The Warriors were -7.5 at one place, the Cavaliers were +8.5 at another place. It's impossible that both sides have a 50% chance, because there is a small chance the game ends with the Warriors winning by exactly eight points. You could bet $5500 on both sides and lose $500 most of the time, while on occasion winning $10000, or 20 times what you risk. If the Warriors win by exactly eight points more than 5% of the time, it would absolutely be an advantage play
(in reality NBA games are decided by eight points exactly over 6% of the time, but that includes games the underdog wins by that amount, so I see it as a marginal play at best and stayed away)
Perhaps the only thing you've been right about is that "only paying vig on losers" is a misnomer. Only the winners pay. If you lose, you have $0, no matter what vig the book was charging. If you win, your payout is reduced by whatever amount they charged
Quote: hailtotheskinsI read something the wizard mentioned in an interview about how AP sports betting would be better to take up than card counting. What does that mean? Is it analyzing advanced metrics or just searching for the best odds or parlay cards or what have you? Any clarification would be helpful. Would like a little action this coming football season
In card counting in the old days a person could gain about a 2% edge looking for the best games. Now, casinos have greatly reduced the # of games with the best conditions - i.e. fewer decks, deeper penetration, better rules such as allowing double after split, and surrender. So now a card counter can realistically expect to gain only about a 1% edge. Even so, a fast dealer can deal 100 hands per hour. In 10 hours a bj player can experience 1,000 resolutions. If you do the math and his average bet size is $100 in one hour he has bet (his total action) $10,000. He will average making $100 per hour. In 10 hours he experiences 1,000 resolutions and has bet (his total action) 100,000. 10 hours will get him $1,000 in expected value. In the real world certain difficulties will reduce the size of his win but not by all that much. He can pretty much count on games being available 24/7. He may be rudely told to leave some stores but the great players just chalk that up to being part of the game and continue doing what they're doing someplace else until they're forgotten. He will probably have significant travel expenses. He will still often lose even though he has an edge. His risk is substantial but the greater the # of hands he plays the greater the chance that he will come close to realizing his true edge. His edge is not based on opinion. It is based on cold, hard mathematics proven by years of testing and tweaking by many different geniuses. A sports bettors edge is based on opinion. He may believe from past experience that he has a 10% edge on the bets he makes but that cannot be proven. The future may not be similar to the past. He is getting older and he may not realize that his analytical skills are deteriorating. A sports betting pro will have difficulty finding a great many bets where he believes he has an edge. The fewer the number of bets he makes the greater the variance - the chance that the outcomes will not be true to his perceived edge. Still, he plies his trade with much less pressure and has a great deal of time to consider carefully his bets. If he is able to bet online he has zero expenses. The pro blackjack player has this problem - the larger his bets are the more closely he is watched and the more likely he is to be backed off. The sports bettor does not face this problem until his bets become of gigantic size. I would strongly disagree with the Wizard if he truly did say this. I would say that generally speaking a pro bj player is much more of a moneymaker than a sports bettor.
