Amer Phar Belmont odds (poll)

Earlier this week I wagered that AP would win the triple crown. This is a futures bet, locked in at -120, rather than actual odds on the race which will fluctuate based on the pool.

My thinking was that AP was likely to go off as a huge odds-on favorite in the Belmont, maybe somewhere around 1-2 or even 2-5. So by wagering this futures bet, I stand to win a locked in 83 cents on the dollar or better than 4-5 should he win the Belmont, which seemed like some value.

Now 3 days later, that 'futures bet' is trending the wrong way. Odds are down to -110 @ William Hill and -115 @ Boyd. That means people are betting he will not win the triple crown, which of course at this point means he will not win the Belmont. Should this sentiment continue when actual race wagering begins, perhaps AP will not be the odds on favorite that I anticipated, which would make my wager...well crappy as far as value.

So just a poll to see what the race fans here at WOV think AP's Belmont odds will be come race time.

I'm going 3-4. I think Belmont has those odds.

There are a couple ways this can go IMO.
1) The betting public shows up in force to bet for AP. The odds at race time for the Preakness were either 3/5 or 4/5. If those odds are reached or perhaps exceeded, (I know people on this site were anticipating 2/5 at the Belmont, the time the Preakness ended) you made a very astute bet here.
However
2) There will be a real sentiment of people who will bet with history in that he won't win the triple crown for various reasons, perhaps AP loses to a well rested and less traveled horse that skipped the Preakness or he simply runs out of gas in the longer race.

The prevailing sentiment will determine whether or not you made a good bet. My anticipation is that history is on the line with this and that will draw a multitude of bettors that seldom or never bet on horse racing and the only horse those people know is AP, and my guess is that an AP winning ticket will probably pay less than even money so I ultimately think you made a good bet

I don't know whether you can see the site but I use betfair as a reflection on sentiment and http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/belmont-stakes/winner - at the moment (30May'15) they have

Horse	Back Odds	Bookies
American Pharoah	+114	11/10
Frosted	+420	5/1
Materiality	+580	6/1
Mubtaahij	+1450	14/1
Carpe Diem	+1150	20/1
20/1 bar

-120 is bad because if he ends up scratching, you lose. I'd rather wait till the end and get 3/4.

I've been a Pharoah supporter since he won the Rebel, and I think he's going to win the crown. That said, Carpe Diem at 15-1 seems like great odds. Pletcher has done ok at the Belmont.

Quote: kewlj

My thinking was that AP was likely to go off as a huge odds-on favorite in the Belmont, maybe somewhere around 1-2 or even 2-5. So by wagering this futures bet, I stand to win a locked in 83 cents on the dollar or better than 4-5 should he win the Belmont, which seemed like some value.

Now 3 days later, that 'futures bet' is trending the wrong way. Odds are down to -110 @ William Hill and -115 @ Boyd. That means people are betting he will not win the triple crown, which of course at this point means he will not win the Belmont. Should this sentiment continue when actual race wagering begins, perhaps AP will not be the odds on favorite that I anticipated, which would make my wager...well crappy as far as value.

You underestimate the race day crowd blindly betting on AP (a) "wishing" him to win and/or (b) wanting a souvenir of the event if he does. Now that the economy has pretty much recovered, I wonder if at least one company will risk a million dollars on 500,000 souvenir $2 AP win tickets. In any event, I think he goes off at about 3-5.

On the other hand, if the odds on him winning the triple crown have gone down, then presumably there's a bet available on him not winning the triple crown, and those odds have gone up. Have you considered hedging?

So now with the field set, post positions drawn and the morning line set at 3-5 for AP, doesn't that bode well for him going off at even shorter odds than 3-5, which would give my wager made last week (win of 83 cents on the dollar) some value. I think he is probably going off in the 2-5 range, which is what I thought when I locked in at better than 4-5.

Thoughts?

I really don't think it'll be less than 1-2.

Quote: kewlj

So now with the field set, post positions drawn and the morning line set at 3-5 for AP, doesn't that bode well for him going off at even shorter odds than 3-5, which would give my wager made last week (win of 83 cents on the dollar) some value. I think he is probably going off in the 2-5 range, which is what I thought when I locked in at better than 4-5.

Thoughts?

I think you made a very astute bet there. I wouldn't be surprised if by race time, that it isn't 1-2 or even 2-5

Really liking that you guys like that bet, because that's what I got as well, and was feeling late to the party on it. Thanks!

Quote: charliepatrick

I don't know whether you can see the site but I use betfair as a reflection on sentiment and http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/belmont-stakes/winner - at the moment (30May'15) they have

Horse	Back Odds	Bookies
American Pharoah	+114	11/10
Frosted	+420	5/1
Materiality	+580	6/1
Mubtaahij	+1450	14/1
Carpe Diem	+1150	20/1
20/1 bar

It's important to consider liquidity if you're looking at a Betfair market and in this race there is still very little liquidity. The horse is currently 9-10 on Betfair but that doesn't really help you when you see that you can only back him at that price for $200 and big gaps in the next odds offered (85-100) and the lay odds (6-4).

Quote: Aussie

...liquidity...at a Betfair...

There's another post ( https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/22251-will-american-pharaoh-win-the-belmont-stakes/ ) running on the same topic where I mentioned this. At the moment (Thur 04th 11am) betfair is a minuscule market and the bookies have

American Pharaoh	odds on (10/11 available)
Frosted	5/1
Materiality	11/2
Mubtaahij	12/1

Note at some stage these will be race odds rather than ante-post, so r4 will apply.

During my travels yesterday, I saw a second futures type wager that AP would finish in the top 3 at odds of -400. That is wagering $400 to win $100 or sort of locking in a show price at $2.50.

In a different race, locking in a huge odds on favorite (as I believe AP will be) to a show price of $2.50 might have some value and interest to me. But the Belmont being so unique in distance, I feel like there is the possibility that if the favorite is totally unsuited for this distance and runs out of gas, he could be passed by 3 or 4 horse down the stretch and finish out of the money. Additionally, there is also the possibility of the horse breaking down, which also could increase by asking him to run a distance he is not suited for. So I passed on this wager.

What if AP is scratched from the race. Is the bet cancelled, or action goes?

Quote: HowMany

What if AP is scratched from the race. Is the bet cancelled, or action goes?

I hope I get action! I got my life savings on the DON'T!

I assume it's the same in the US - in the UK there are two types of bet.

The first is "Ante-Post" (or futures) where you bet a long time before the race/event - the odds tend to be longer but the house edge (book) horrible - but it works if the horse goes onto win. The downside is if the horse doesn't participate you lose your bet, conversely if the pre-race favourite doesn't start your odds aren't affected.

As the race draws closer, the odds offered include "non-runner no bet" and "r4 may apply" (I read somewhere this happens after "final declarations" http://www.betting-explained.com/rule-4-explained/ ). Whatever happens this applies to bookies' morning early prices and track odds once the first live show appears.

This now means if your horse doesn't "come under starter's orders" then you get your money back (I think there might be a "does not start" clause nowadays, but I'm not sure). Conversely if any other horses do not start then winning bets have a deduction.

In a simple example suppose you had backed a horse at 5/1 where the favourite was 2/1. Then if the 2/1 shot didn't start you'd be on a good thing, so your winnings have a 30% deduction.

On July 9 1973 Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths in the record time of 2:24. It's a standing U.S. record for 1.5 miles and is probably a world record. No horse has come within 2 seconds of his record at the Belmont Stakes. 2 seconds equals roughly 10 lengths. He did the first 6 furlongs fast enough to win most stakes races. And the race was only half over. Last year California Chrome lost his triple crown bid. Tonalist won it - the winning time was 2:28.52. Secretariat would have beaten him by 24 lengths.


http://www.championsgallery.com/Secretariat%20Belmont%20Photo%20Framed%20Unsigned.jpg

Quote: lilredrooster

On July 9 1973 Secretariat won the Belmont Stakes by 31 lengths in the record time of 2:24. It's a standing U.S. record for 1.5 miles and is probably a world record. No horse has come within 2 seconds of his record at the Belmont Stakes. 2 seconds equals roughly 10 lengths. He did the first 6 furlongs fast enough to win most stakes races. And the race was only half over. Last year California Chrome lost his triple crown bid. Tonalist won it - the winning time was 2:28.52. Secretariat would have beaten him by 24 lengths.


http://www.championsgallery.com/Secretariat%20Belmont%20Photo%20Framed%20Unsigned.jpg

I have that exact pic (signed by Turcotte) hanging up in my dining room. Love it. I always thought he was looking back, but he's actually looking at the timer to see how much he broke the record by.

Pharoah is 2-5, but I see that going up to 1-2 or 3-5, not down.