DeflateGate

Quote: kewlj

Yes, just this week, I learned how the NFL balls were handled. I am an expert and long ago learned how MY balls are handled if that is what you are alluding to. I can teach you if you would like. ;)

Will chippies be involved?

Here's the thing, you know the temperature of the air you're using, you know when the inspection is going to be, you can calculate the change in temperature over time. You can easily warm up the air inside to a certain temperature so that it'll be the optimal PSI at inspection, and then drop to the PSI you want it to be at game temperature. The physics involved isn't that complex.

Nobody seems to be asking the question, did the officials actually check all the footballs using a calibrated pressure gauge or was it just by hand squeeze using assumptions it isn't a big deal, as they drank their hot chocolate waiting and getting dressed for the game. Dollars to doughnuts the game officials don't actually feel like they need to stick a needle in each ball and verify the range. They are in their minds beyond such a thing. Cover up all the way. Patriots have been using under inflated footballs for years, probably other teams as well.

This has ruined the excitement of the Superbowl itself.

Quote: NokTang

Nobody seems to be asking the question, did the officials actually check all the footballs using a calibrated pressure gauge or was it just by hand squeeze using assumptions it isn't a big deal, as they drank their hot chocolate waiting and getting dressed for the game. Dollars to doughnuts the game officials don't actually feel like they need to stick a needle in each ball and verify the range. They are in their minds beyond such a thing. Cover up all the way. Patriots have been using under inflated footballs for years, probably other teams as well.

This has ruined the excitement of the Superbowl itself.

Would YOU stick a needle in each ball and closely inspect each one or would you just briefly glance over them and say OK whatever?

Keep in mind you get paid the same either way, have no vested interest in the game, and are part of a union where it's basically impossible to get fired unless you actually get caught taking bribes or something.

There's 12 balls + 12 backup balls for each team. I dunno if they inspect the backups, but that's either 24 or 48 balls to inspect. Plenty of room to be lazy there.

Quote: Doc

making me look dumb by forgetting atmospheric pressure

Dammit.

So the Patriots could be innocent if they stuck to the lower end of the range pregame...

Quote: sc15

Here's the thing, you know the temperature of the air you're using, you know when the inspection is going to be, you can calculate the change in temperature over time. You can easily warm up the air inside to a certain temperature so that it'll be the optimal PSI at inspection, and then drop to the PSI you want it to be at game temperature. The physics involved isn't that complex.

Shrinkage. This sounds like a Seinfeld episode. :)

For those who like statistical analysis, the following posts certainly are damning for the Patriots:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-patriots-and-tom-brady-suspiciously-out-perform-expectations-in-wet-weather

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

Quote: teliot

For those who like statistical analysis, the following posts certainly are damning for the Patriots:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-patriots-and-tom-brady-suspiciously-out-perform-expectations-in-wet-weather

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

I'd like to see the numbers excluding BenJarvus Green-Ellis carries. That guy didn't fumble once in either high school or college ball. In college he ran for 4185 yds and scored 26 TDs. 0 fumbles. Unless you want to argue the Patriots were deflating his balls for 8 years before he turned pro, then his unusually low fumble rate has to factor into any analysis of the patriots unusually low fumble rate.

Quote: teliot

For those who like statistical analysis, the following posts certainly are damning for the Patriots:

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-patriots-and-tom-brady-suspiciously-out-perform-expectations-in-wet-weather

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/blog/2015/the-new-england-patriots-prevention-of-fumbles-is-nearly-impossible

First link represents too small of sample size in my opinion. It's 15 games. A quick glance shows that 11 of those 15 game occurred in years that the patriots were 16-0, 14-2, 12-4 and 12-4. Those were some pretty good teams, you would expect them to win their home games, regardless of weather. A quick glance of the opponents looks like some pretty weak opponents. Tennessee was 0-5, the Jets 3-10 and Miami 1-13 when they went into New England. Are we surprised New England won these games. New England was probably favored in every one of those 15 games, many of them double digit favorites. I don't think 14-1 at home with these 16-0, 14-2, 12-4, 12-4 teams was that surprising.

Second link much more interesting, especially because of the huge difference between Patriot's fumble rates and even the nearest team's rate. Sabre makes a great point about Green-Ellis. His stats are going to strongly influence the total stats. I would be interested to know more about if the Patriot's made a conscience decision to obtain player's with a history of low fumble rates. (seems like a smart thing to do, actually)

I am also interested to know why only home games are being examined. If each team is in control of their own balls, the home field doesn't really enter into it. Let's examine Patriot away bad weather games as well.

Funny piece on deflategate on SNL last night. Its on you tube. I dont know how to post tbe link with my windows phone. Could someone post it? Just go to youtube and googke snl deflategate. Thanks.

"Science expert Bill Nye appeared on Good Morning America today to unequivocally call out Bill Belichick as a bullshitter."
hehe.

Anyway, I think that the total pushed in the Pats/Colts game but it went over in the Pats/Ravens game (also where NE is suspected of doctoring their balls).
I think that one could argue that both of those games would have gone under, were it not for the doctored NE balls. In addition, one could argue that the Ravens would have won. Since wagers were placed on those games, isn't an alleged doctoring of the balls by New England more than just a breaking of an NFL rule? Isn't it also a breaking of the law?

Quote: tringlomane

Quote: Doc

making me look dumb by forgetting atmospheric pressure

Dammit.

So the Patriots could be innocent if they stuck to the lower end of the range pregame...

Not an actual "quote" of what I said, of course. I was not trying to make anyone "look dumb." I was just pointing out a small but perhaps significant item that had been overlooked in the two calculations that you and wudged had presented.

I think that recent reports are that the outdoor temperature on the day of the game was 50F or so. That suggests that the temperature effect would be less than what you and wudged calculated, after correcting for atmospheric pressure.

Quote: sabre

I'd like to see the numbers excluding BenJarvus Green-Ellis carries. That guy didn't fumble once in either high school or college ball. In college he ran for 4185 yds and scored 26 TDs. 0 fumbles. Unless you want to argue the Patriots were deflating his balls for 8 years before he turned pro, then his unusually low fumble rate has to factor into any analysis of the patriots unusually low fumble rate.

He had 510 touches in that time period and did not fumble. That number is 536 if you count pass receptions, no fumbles.

I now hear that it was a locker room attendant who messed with the balls. I highly doubt that he did it on his own.
I believe it to be a breaking of the law. One in which millions are involved.

I now hear that they are reporting that it was a locker room attendant who messed with the balls. I highly doubt that he did it on his own.
I certainly believe that federal laws were broken. Millions of dollars involved.

One media type insisted that, if found guilty, this is nothing more than a parking ticket. no. No. NO. You have to be kidding me. Not when so much is involved, and so many people impacted, by an intentional breaking of the rules. Media types like him need to have their ass fired.

Quote: steeldco

I now hear that they are reporting that it was a locker room attendant who messed with the balls...

I would guess that his name is "Patsy"... hehe.

I would like to see a class action lawsuit against some of these teams that cheat. Get a fee hundred people who lost a wager because of cheating go after the NFL and patriots.

"According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter (via Deadspin), the Colts first realized the Patriots were using deflated balls back on November 16, when the Pats beat the Colts by a score of 42-20. Colts safety Mike Adams recorded two interceptions during that contest. He gave both balls to the team’s equipment manager to save for keepsake purposes, but when the equipment manager realized the balls felt under-inflated, he notified the coaches and management. They raised their concerns with the league, who therefore must have been aware of the Patriots’ knack for deflating footballs ahead of Sunday’s AFC Championship."

http://www.totalprosports.com/2015/01/21/patriots-deflated-balls-nfl-knew/

If this is true, the NFL is involved in allowing something to happen that they knew was a possibility without changing any procedures.

Where does this go from here? Should the feds investigate?

Anybody remember the infamous Snowplow Game?

Quote: Wizard

Anybody remember the infamous Snowplow Game?

Ah yes. I had completely forgotten about that game. Man, getting old sucks.
Anyway, there was no rule against it? Right? Assuming I'm right then it was just an intelligent move.

Quote: steeldco

Ah yes. I had completely forgotten about that game. Man, getting old sucks.
Anyway, there was no rule against it? Right? Assuming I'm right then it was just an intelligent move.

It seemed like an obvious unfair advantage to me. I'm pretty sure Miami had to kick field goals in the snow previous to that in the game. I have no idea what the rule book says to do in that situation, but it is so obscure, probably nothing. What seems fair to me is that point of the ball should have been moved backward to the first place in the snow.

Quote: Wizard

It seemed like an obvious unfair advantage to me. I'm pretty sure Miami had to kick field goals in the snow previous to that in the game. I have no idea what the rule book says to do in that situation, but it is so obscure, probably nothing. What seems fair to me is that point of the ball should have been moved backward to the first place in the snow.

I would agree that moving the ball would have been the fair thing to do, however since it didn't break a rule I would let it stand. Again, even though seemingly unfair. As apposed to Brady knowingly breaking a rule.

Looking at Wikipedia, they made a rule the following season that no snowplows could be used during the game.

It was surely "unfair" but not strictly against the rules at that time.

Quote: steeldco

I would agree that moving the ball would have been the fair thing to do, however since it didn't break a rule I would let it stand. Again, even though seemingly unfair. As apposed to Brady knowingly breaking a rule.

In my opinion the refs should be able to use common sense for obscure situations of blatant unfair advantage that simply aren't covered in the rule books.

Quote: Wizard

... common sense for obscure situations of blatant unfair advantage that simply aren't covered in the rule books.

You reminded me of a football game I was watching with my father in either the late 50's or the 60's -- a college football game, and a bowl game unless I am just dreaming that after all these years. There was a play where a runner broke loose and was sprinting down the sidelines for a sure touchdown. A player for the other team -- not in the game but sitting on the bench -- got so emotionally stressed that he ran onto the field and tackled the runner as he was passing the bench area.

The officials awarded the runner's team a touchdown. It was later explained that there was an (obscure) rule that one of the ways to score in football was via penalty for grossly unfair play, and that was the basis of the officials' actions. Maybe someone with better recollection (or good search skills) can identify that play more precisely.

I don't know whether the officials really have authority to just do whatever they think makes things right or whether the corrective action needs to be called for in the rules. Can you just re-position the ball to penalize a team because a member of the grounds crew drives "a little off course" when plowing the yard lines as he was supposed to? (And yes, I remember watching that game on TV, too.)