Super Bowl 49 -- All topics except the No Safety bet.
Quote: WilsonYou have different options, you can hand the ball off to Marshawn (Lunch), that's a great option, you can throw it, which is a great option.
..."You could punt there, but Coach Carroll decided that wasn't such a good idea. We thought long and hard about that Field Goal, we did the math and saw that 28-24 = 4, so we had to consult the Rule Book to see, you know, how much a Field Goal is worth. It's worth three, so we thought about that and maybe try an on-side kick, but that didn't seem like a very good decision."
I mean, you can run the ball or you can throw the ball. Both are great options? Is there typically an offensive play on second down where those aren't the only options?
18 seconds left at this point. That was also Seattle's last timeout; they used their first one early in the drive because the play clock was about to run out, and their second one right after "the catch."Quote: z2newtonThe near intentional safety I'm sure gave people a near heart attack.
Potential scenario:
QB sneak for 1/2 yard gain. Seattle timeout.
Seattle is out of timeouts. Brady lets the clock run out.Quote: z2newtonQB sneak for another 1/2 yard.
...and the snap goes wide (wasn't the Patriots center a little erratic all game long?); a Seattle linebacker or back runs in and falls on it. Final score of Bonehead Bowl II*: Seattle 31 (or 30 if they decide just to take a knee on the extra point), New England 28.Quote: z2newtonBrady drops back
*Bonehead Bowl I was in 1982; Cal at Texas A&M. Game tied with about a minute left; Cal has fourth and short at the A&M 5, and kicks a chipshot field goal to take the lead, but there's a roughing the kicker penalty, so Joe Kapp (in his first game as head coach) takes the points off the board to have first and goal at the 3 - and Gale Gilbert promptly fumbles. A&M runs out the clock and salvages a tie, right? No - they try a handoff in the end zone, and Ron Rivera (who ended up being Cal's first All-American in quite a few years that season, IIRC) makes a tackle for a safety.
Quote: mcallister3200Wizards recommended props came in great for the most part. Thanks for putting the database together and sharing with us, regardless of results (which were awesome!). Ignored the kicking ones and only lost one prop. Was definitely sweating 3 pt margin on seahawks failed drive and then no safety/last score TD after the pick at the end.
Yes, they did, thanks. I hope everybody followed my fair lines on my Super Bowl 49 — Proposition Bets page. Here is what I bet this year, in alphabetical order:
| Bet | W/L |
|---|---|
| Any quarter tied -- YES | w |
| Field goals under 2.5 | w |
| Field goals under 3.5 | w |
| First score TD | w |
| Game tied after 0-0 -- NO | l |
| Gostkowski field goals un 1.5 | w |
| Gostkowski un 7.5 pts | w |
| Gostkowski un 8.5 pts | w |
| Hauschka field goals un 1.5 | w |
| Hauschka un 7.5 pts | w |
| Largest lead over 14.5 | l |
| Last score TD | w |
| Overtime -- NO | w |
| Patriots pts -- even | w |
| Pats first score TD | w |
| Pats TD in first quarter | l |
| Pats first downs under 21.5 | l |
| Punts over 8.5 | w |
| Safety -- NO | w |
| Scoreless quarter -- NO | l |
| Seahawks first score TD | w |
| Seahawks ov 19 first downs | w |
| Seahawks pts -- even | w |
| Seattle TD in first qtr | l |
| Team to score last wins | w |
| Touchdowns un 5.5 | l |
| Two-pt conversion -- NO | w |
I must admit that I was sweating all kinds of stuff at the end. That game could have easily gone into overtime had it not been for that interception. Not only would it have caused that bridge jumper to lose but a 3-point margin of victory and a bunch of other TD/FG related props too. Then, after the interception, I had to sweat a safety.
However, all's well that ends well. On a percentage basis, I think my best ever. It also finally get the bad taste out of my mouth for the previous disasterous Super Bowl 48.
I watched the game at a big VIP party at the Wynn. The whole room went nuts on that interception, including me. You could tell it was both jubilation and horror combined.
Hehe... classic. Congrats Wizard! And thank you for the valuable info on the props page.Quote: Wizard... You could tell it was both jubilation and horror combined.
Quote: AyecarumbaCongrats Wizard! And thank you for the valuable info on the props page.
Thanks and you're welcome!
Quote: RonCAs many have said, the decision to not hand the ball of to Lynch could be one that is questionable but not horrible in itself...you still have two downs left if the pass is incomplete. The decision to toss the ball right into the middle of an already compacted defenses is what made it a horrible decision. People can pull out all kinds of statistics and they are accurate--but I don't recall seeing a whole lot of balls thrown right into the middle of a tightened defense. Corner throws? Yes. Back of the end zone routes? Yes. Right into the heart of the defense playing to stop a play they expect to be a run? Bad decision. It cost them a championship.
Exactly. There's a lot of good passing plays to be made on short yardage and goal. That's not one of them. Wilson has legs, so bootlegs and fade route work well too. 1 yard out routes on timing throws work. DON'T pass into traffic. Too many things can go wrong... or a rookie LB can make the read of his career and win the game.
Quote: RigondeauxAccording to various twitter folk, passes from the one yard line in the NFL resulted in 66 touchdowns and zero interceptions this year, prior to Wilson's INT.
Lynch had 5 caries from the 1 yard line, for a total of -1 yard and only one score. (I seem to recall him also being stopped on third and one in this game. Not sure though.)
So, at that point, with only 20 something seconds left, which would allow you the 66 TD/0 INT play, and still give you two chances to run it in if you wanted to, is it such a bad decision to try it?
Funny, this makes me think of ball security again, though not deflategate, because I figure a ball in hand is more secure than one in the air.
Final moments in championships (in all sports) usually separate the very good from the nerves of steel types. It's one of 66 plays yet, it's different in spirit from all the others. (for instance, can't count how many pro golfers I've seen miss a final putt they could make every day of their life nearly)
I prefer all that nervous adrenaline in a guy with the ball in hand charging forward, if possible, than the pass option.
Quote: WizardHowever, all's well that ends well. On a percentage basis, I think my best ever. It also finally get the bad taste out of my mouth for the previous disasterous Super Bowl 48.
How much did you win as a percentage of total money bet?
I echo the thanks for all the free work you do on this site WRT prop bets. Some day I hope to be in Vegas for the "Big Game" so I can bet some more of the crazy props with good prices. I was happy this year to get down on the no safety via my buddy, but I wasn't going to ask him to make a bunch of bets.
Quote: Baccaratfrom79I figured Seattle had the game, I think like everyone else. Losing a game like the SB because you went out there and tried your best and got beat, well it was just an honor to be there and we will try harder next year. But the way Seattle lost has to be the biggest blunder of all time in all professional sports. It would be gut wrenching and the coach responsible should be fired on the spot. He literally took everyone's hard work and flushed it down the toilet and poo-poo'd on everyone involved. ( I am not a fan of either team, but I feel bad for those that put their time, money and hard work into the road to the SB for Seattle).
Woah... it wasn't that bad of a move. It was a blunder, but I'm not going to go that far to say he flushed it down the pan.
I Would like to thank Mike for allowing me to take 5k action on his bets. I had put complete blind faith and trust in his decisions with a return of 42%.
I gave some of that action to a few friends.
Everybody is very now upset......because they didn't bet more :)
Now I just need some good reasons to welsh ;)
Quote: thecesspitWoah... it wasn't that bad of a move. It was a blunder, but I'm not going to go that far to say he flushed it down the pan.
Like others have said, three times hard with everything, after all it was the last one, two or three plays of the year for everything in life all the participants worked for and always wanted. It was blown with same bull crap, dumb ass, horrible immature decision to showboat. Period. I have to liken it to me working on an extremely busy interstate where the DOT mandates I close down the adjacent lane for 1.5 miles prior to create what we call the Federal Work Zone Standard and then begin work after about 2 hard dangerous hours of installing traffic control for a 1 or 2 hour job to begin with. Then of course there is another 2 or 3 hour task to pull it all down. Sure I have thought about cutting corners, show boating and foregoing what the hard, proper and right thing to do was, but I strive forward and do what is proven and right.
Let's just play the 'What if' game. Well, lets ask ourselves what if I throw the ball, what are the chances my opponent can take it away? AND: Well, lets ask ourselves what if we run the ball, what are the chances my opponent can take it away?
Three times tried in Seattle's case and if a loss occurred, you stand proud and go out a proud participant of the Super Bowl. What they choose to do, you wind up looking at the ground, cussing, chewing your friggin gum harder and feeling about 5 tons of egg on your face. Gee guys, sorry, I thought we would surprise a team with little or no Super Bowl experience. Let's go get a beer now.
