DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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April 29th, 2015 at 3:07:04 PM permalink
Ugh.

Post position draw is done & morning line is up:

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (E. Trujillo), 50-1
2. Carpe Diem (J. Velazquez), 8-1
3. Materiality (J. Castellano), 12-1
4. Tencendur (M. Franco), 30-1
5. Danzig Moon (J. Leparoux), 30-1
6. Mubtaahij (C. Soumillon), 20-1
7. El Kabeir (C. Borel), 30-1
8. Dortmund (M. Garcia), 3-1
9. Bolo (R. Bejarano), 30-1
10. Firing Line (G. Stevens), 12-1
11. Stanford (F. Geroux), 30-1
12. International Star (M. Mena), 20-1
13. Itsaknockout (L. Saez), 30-1
14. Keen Ice (K. Desormeaux), 50-1

<AUXILIARY GATE>

15. Frosted (J. Rosario), 15-1
16. War Story (J. Talamo), 50-1
17. Mr. Z (R. Vazquez), 50-1
18. American Pharoah (V. Espinoza), 5-2
19. Upstart (J. Ortiz), 15-1
20. Far Right (M. Smith), 30-1

AE – Frammento (C. Nakatani)
AE – Tale of Verve (B. Hernandez)
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 29th, 2015 at 3:27:15 PM permalink
Recapping from Pool #1 in the original November thread starter post:

Quote: DrawingDead

1 12 American Pharoah 7.0
2 20 Blofeld 6.2
3 20 Calculator 6.4
4 20 Carpe Diem 7.9
5 50 Classy Class 6.1
6 20 Competitive Edge 6.3
7 20 Daredevil 7.1
8 50 Dortmund 7.0
9 50 Eagle 7.1
10 50 El Kabeir 7.1
11 50 Frosted 7.5
12 50 I Spent It 6.4
13 50 Imperia 7.3
14 30 Lord Nelson 7.5
15 50 Lucky Player 6.7
16 30 Mr. Z 7.0
17 20 Ocho Ocho Ocho 7.3
18 50 Ostrolenka 7.0
19 50 Punctuate 7.0
20 15 Texas Red 8.1
21 30 The Great War 7.4
22 50 Unblunted 6.3
23 20 Upstart 6.9
24 3/5 All Others (Field)


So pending any late scratch in the final 72hrs, 8 of the 23 are in, along with 12 from the Pool #1 "field" + the 2 on the AE list that were also not named individual wagering interests in the first early pool.

Average among Pool #1 AWDs making the race: 7.22f
Avg. Pool #1 pedigree AWD of those eliminated: 6.86f
(Using only original progeny data available at that time, with AWDs not adjusted for subsequent additional data.)
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 29th, 2015 at 3:38:27 PM permalink
Carpe Diem is toast. Sorry DD.
Tomspur
Tomspur
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:12:38 PM permalink
So I'm going to change my selections slightly.
1 Mubtaahij
2 International star
3 Dortmund
4 Frosted

I love the draw for mubtaahij and I think international start is an overlay right now. How will dortmund act in the scrum with that big stride?
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 29th, 2015 at 4:35:03 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2015/2015_kentucky_derby_contenders.htm


This was a very interesting read today. Thank you for posting the link. The data/analysis seems to point to Mubtaahij at the top of their PF rating. He has the lowest Dosage # and has run the best race to date according to the number conversions. His UAE Derby rates a little higher than Ready For Rye's Swale Stakes performance (which was excellent). Materiality/Upstart/Frosted have also turned in big performances based on the numbers. It is what it is....thanks again.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 29th, 2015 at 5:02:09 PM permalink
Of the favorites, Carpe Diem got the worst of the draw, Dortmund got the best spot, and AP should be fine on the outside. I am still not convinced Ocho3 is going to run and his post does not help. Stanford will run with F. Geroux to ride.

Out of the clouds with no Derby points and on the AE list:
Tale of Verve - Dallas Stewart - *B. Hernandez to ride if two horses exit the race.

*edited to fix jockey error. C. Nakatani will ride Frammento.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 29th, 2015 at 5:10:39 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Out of the clouds with no Derby points and on the AE list:
Tale of Verve - Dallas Stewart - C. Nakatani to ride if two horses exit the race.



"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 29th, 2015 at 8:53:35 PM permalink
With all information in hand that I'm likely to get before Saturday, the identity and order of my top tier has not changed but I have shifted my "fair value" odds line on them, as well as the rest of the field.

Orig FV line Revised Avg odds/$1 on my future book tickets

17% 5/1 > 15% 6/1 Carpe Diem 27/1
15% 6/1 > 14% 7/1 Materiality 43/1
12% 9/1 = 12% 9/1 Frosted 35/1

That also happens to be the order in which I have the most future book money on them, listed from most to relatively less.

Other than making some little token straight-up raceday win bet for bragging rights which is pretty much mandatory for this, I really don't need any more exposure for the win on any of these that I'm most interested in. I'm also not going to be hedging my Derby future wagers, at least not directly. But near post time I will be looking closely at the pari-mutual money flow and proportional distribution of it among all the pools for any added risk/reward value I may get other than win wagering.

I'll be particularly looking for any leverage that may be available by betting to place and especially to show. If the distribution of money offers > $5 to show (per $2) on a wagering interest I estimate is > 40% to hit the board, with significant additional upside in the payout if the favorite doesn't get the trip or the distance and finishes off the board, I'll be all over that in the last minute as they load at the gate. If it is available at the right EV in the relevant pari-mutual pool(s) it will likely end up being the largest chunk of money I have on this. It could be considered an indirect form of hedging, but I won't be doing it for that purpose.

For me it will be a straightforward question of expected value considered independently of any wagers that are already booked. Looking to collect something like $6 or possibly $7 per $2 risked on a show wager also will not win wild applause or excite most gamblers, but I don't care. That isn't what I do it for, and it is a common sort of wager for me producing a very satisfactory ROI over time.

Over the next few days I'll be mostly burrowing into the undercard and some races at a few other major tracks, especially on grass, for likely opportunities from the anomolous wagering patterns that are unique to Derby day (normal legit 9/5 shots that tend to pay 3/1+ on that peculiar day), and probably won't have much more to say here before Saturday. Unless it involves some brief observations from my scheduled base camp in a mid-strip book, perhaps involving the adventure of conducting a ground assault through the expected combat zone of crazed boxing groupies and escaping with my life & property.

I fully expect some random ping-ponging at the break and on the first turn to unpredictably take out more than a couple from any real chance they had. It almost always does in this. Good luck.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 29th, 2015 at 9:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
For disclosure that I feel obliged to do here (and not with the illusion of any reason for anyone else but my creditors to care) here's the state of the straight win ticket portion of my future book wagers:

Solidly in (4):

  • Carpe Diem
  • Frosted
  • Materiality
  • Mubtaahij
In but iffy in my opinion (2):
  • Bolo
  • Itsaknockout
-snip-


I have 7 runners with future tickets:
  • Carpe Diem
  • Firing Line
  • Keen Ice
  • War Story
  • Danzig Moon
  • Stanford
  • Mubtaahij (best ROI if he wins)

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