Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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April 25th, 2015 at 12:23:52 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Quote: Keeneone

...also excludes a number of interesting runners in the last few years and could be used to remove a few runners this year....

I do find that thought interesting, and probably similar in effect to something I do through other means. I didn't have a beef with Brisnet's LP metric; I just haven't got a history with them to be able to form a solely experiential opinion without access to their proprietary methodology.

Where I might be somewhat reluctant or extra cautious with it or a similar approach is of course in a case that involved an open length win under wraps (which can sometimes EITHER deflate or inflate times & splits) and/or a prospect that clearly didn't need any qualifying points (or unrestricted graded stakes earnings if retrospectively back testing before CD's points), and also obviously when some form of severe surface bias/condition and/or traffic or trip trouble was likely to be highly relevant.


I also do not have a history with these numbers. I just noticed a "trend" and wanted to mention it. The 2015 horses that could be excluded with this "angle" are:

International Star
El Kabeir
Mr. Z

This "statistic" is just one (of many) to think about for the Kentucky Derby.
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This Brisnet link continues to be updated for the Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/promo/uwb.pdf
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Can I do a Kentucky Derby give-away on the WOV website? Is it within the rules of the site?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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April 26th, 2015 at 5:51:08 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

....
Can I do a Kentucky Derby give-away on the WOV website? Is it within the rules of the site?



It's possible you can, but the details would matter. What are you thinking of offering?
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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April 26th, 2015 at 6:17:36 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

It's possible you can, but the details would matter. What are you thinking of offering?


Once the field is established, I would do a blind draw of horses for the first 20 members that participated in this thread. I already have the list of members and they could always opt out. 1st,2nd,3rd place finishers after the race would win a Kentucky Derby related prize (less than $25 value). Potentially a little more for 1st place via a live betting ticket. I could also convert prizes to approximate cash value if the winners wanted vs giving shipping details (I realize some members do not like to do this). That is it basically.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 26th, 2015 at 7:20:09 PM permalink
I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!
Boz
Boz
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April 26th, 2015 at 7:27:26 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!




Or maybe she will be another Rachel Alexandra and be racing on Saturday. Best wishes to her and your success.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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April 26th, 2015 at 7:42:15 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Once the field is established, I would do a blind draw of horses for the first 20 members that participated in this thread. I already have the list of members and they could always opt out. 1st,2nd,3rd place finishers after the race would win a Kentucky Derby related prize (less than $25 value). Potentially a little more for 1st place via a live betting ticket. I could also convert prizes to approximate cash value if the winners wanted vs giving shipping details (I realize some members do not like to do this). That is it basically.



I am not the official word on this, but in my opinion, this is similar to Mission's various NFL pools where he's offered a small prize to the winner, and I would guess it would be allowable. If you want to move forward on it, I would suggest you PM Wizard and Zuga and ask if you can proceed.

On a personal note, I think it would be fun, and it's very generous of you to suggest it.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 26th, 2015 at 7:54:34 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Or maybe she will be another Rachel Alexandra and be racing on Saturday. Best wishes to her and your success.



Unfortunately, Rachel skipped the Derby, crushed the Oaks, then won the Preakness. Would she have won the triple crown? I think so.

Hopefully I'll have a difficult decision like that to make in 2 years (riiiiiiight...)
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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April 26th, 2015 at 10:57:46 PM permalink
The post position draw is Wednesday from 2:00-2:30pm PT (5:00-5:30pm ET) [EDIT: 2:30-3:00 PT & 5:30-6:00pm ET] televised live on NBCSN. For some inexplicable reason, I usually find that little needlessly strung-out pre-event event kind of fun.
Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!

I don't think the thread title specified "May" of any particular year.

Have fun writing checks. They are rather large animals, with a habit of eating.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
ontariodealer
ontariodealer
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HowMany
HowMany
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April 27th, 2015 at 6:20:55 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I know this isn't the exact right thread, but I wanted to share that I am officially a first-time horse owner!

How much do I own of this Yearling filly? 2%!

Maybe she'll be racing the first Friday in May in 2017!



Congrats man, that's awesome. Enjoy.

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