DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 28th, 2015 at 8:09:18 AM permalink
That was a fun way to start the day.

I'm not inclined to take a lot from the margin at the wire as he drew away, since comparison of both the time and those who had some run and hit the board behind after trying to stay with him is unknowable, or at least unknown to me. And I don't think Whatshisname who came over from the US with Eoin Harty ever put in enough of a run for me to make use of his presence that way.

But I have to really like the way he did it. The ability to stalk (an apparently) hotly contested pace while in amongst horses and taking kickback in the face and then promptly pounce when called upon by the rider is ideal for his next task. And based on both pedigree and his way of going there's every reason to me to think he should have a fine chance of staying 10 furlongs on the Churchill main track.

The remark above about hoping to see him come over "soon" actually matters to me in a substantive way, rather than late. Some other past international Derby runners have had their best chances compromised by an insistence on shipping in too close to the race, in my opinion, so I'll be interested in hearing some of those nitty gritty details of their plans as they develop.

I don't know what I think fair value odds on him should be, but I'm convinced to take him quite seriously. That T.S. future book ticket sure looks like better than merely 'good' value. And now that would be the sound of squealing tires in the distance as Tomspur's better half embarks on some seriously intensive window shopping.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 28th, 2015 at 8:39:22 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

That was a fun way to start the day.

I'm not inclined to take a lot from the margin at the wire as he drew away, since comparison of both the time and those who had some run and hit the board behind after trying to stay with him is unknowable, or at least unknown to me. And I don't think Whatshisname who came over from the US with Eoin Harty ever put in enough of a run for me to make use of his presence that way.

But I have to really like the way he did it. The ability to stalk (an apparently) hotly contested pace while in amongst horses and taking kickback in the face and then promptly pounce when called upon by the rider is ideal for his next task. And based on both pedigree and his way of going there's every reason to me to think he should have a fine chance of staying 10 furlongs on the Churchill main track.

The remark above about hoping to see him come over "soon" actually matters to me in a substantive way, rather than late. Some other past international Derby runners have had their best chances compromised by an insistence on shipping in too close to the race, in my opinion, so I'll be interested in hearing some of those nitty gritty details of their plans as they develop.

I don't know what I think fair value odds on him should be, but I'm convinced to take him quite seriously. That T.S. future book ticket sure looks like better than merely 'good' value. And now that would be the sound of squealing tires in the distance as Tomspur's better half embarks on some seriously intensive window shopping.



She says she is getting tiles for the floors :)

I do have one bigger wager than Mubtaahij though on Unrivaled. He will have to run very well next week in the blue Grass to get a run though and it may be a bridge too far......We will see.

I see Mubtaahij is now 14/1 on the overseas markets for the Derby. Guess you won't get much more than that for the futures market in Vegas now too.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 28th, 2015 at 3:57:03 PM permalink
Saturday March 28, 2015 - Fairgrounds - Louisiana Derby Grade 2 (11/8mile - 750k)

International Star - Won again. Completed the Louisiana "triple crown" sweep.
Stanford - 2nd. almost stole this on the front end.
War Story - 3rd.

Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 28th, 2015 at 7:51:07 PM permalink
Florida Derby:
Materiality - Won in another slowish time for Gulfstream. 3 seconds slower than his last stakes win @ the same distance.
Upstart - 2nd after a long stretch duel.
Ami's Flatter - Ran a distant 3rd.



-I have a question. Are the horses coming out of the Florida preps really top tier? The times seem to be slow due to track conditions. If so, are these runners actually getting a better than normal foundation because of the conditions? This is a really hard question to answer.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 29th, 2015 at 11:46:31 AM permalink
Pardon me for going back to things that are now becoming old news in interwebz chatter time; I have all these pesky stacks of money to shovel out from under. I spend a lot of time mostly arriving at decisions to NOT bet, race after race after race, pass, pass, pass, and try to hit them hard when I eventually do find what I'm after. I liked Materiality a lot in that spot, so that was one of those.

[/end gloat]

Quote: Tomspur

So should horses get there early and settle in? I guess there is some quarantine issues. Anybody have any details about how long and where they may be in quarantine?

Yes he'll have to spend some time in quarantine immediately on 'wheels down' amounting to about two or three days or so if I recall correctly. Afterward, he's also required by special security protocols for this race to be stabled on the grounds in a special stakes barn area for over three days before the race under continuous human and electronic surveillance, intended to prevent some forms of doping and other skulduggery. He could possibly ship over as late as the beginning of the same week as the race, and this is what some European entrants have done in the past.

I think it is a very bad idea to do it that way. I think we both have a bit of experience with long international flights of 16+ hours across many time zones, and the disruptive effects that can have on mind and body for a while. Furthermore, there are some differences at the starting gate and more significantly with the turns, among other things. In my opinion to have his best chance they'd be wise to ship in at least two weeks or so in advance to clear quarantine, adjust, school at the gate a little, and breeze around the turns, instead of what others have done when coming to this race from the other side of the globe.

Quote: Keeneone

...The times seem to be slow due to track conditions...

That's what speed figures and variants attempt to answer, and Beyer has given the race a figure of 110. To win the Derby will probably require running that race about 110-ish this year. In looking at races throughout the whole card, the main track surface was extremely deep and tiring Saturday even for the relatively slow surface at GP; those nominally 'slow' times all day were from fast racehorses, and it was also a 'dead rail' that favored runners that were out in the middle of the track & disadvantaged those on the inside. For a quick glance, there were three two-turn races on the main (dirt) track at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, all of them stakes races. The 5th was a Grade 3 for older horses at 1-3/16th miles, the 12th was the Florida Oaks at 1-1/16 miles, and the 14th was of course the Florida Derby. Here are the six furlong and mile splits and Beyer speed figures for the final time (I rounded digital times from Equibase and these may not precisely match the DRF PPs):

Race #05: 1:134 1:384 BSF 109
Race #12: 1:133 1:403 BSF 89
Race #14: 1:123 1:383 BSF 110

If one prefers to consider context of prior performances with others on other circuits rather than using variants to arrive at speed figures, recall that Upstart, among other things, overcame a poor trip to be a very good 3rd in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Texas Red and ahead of Mr. Z and others at Santa Anita, after his 2nd in the Champagne at Saratoga well ahead of El Kabeir & The Truth or Else among others. Note International Star just managed to get by Stanford in deep stretch in the Louisiana Derby after Materiality blew by Stanford in their prior race at Gulfstream at 1-1/8 miles in 1:492.

The Louisiana Derby got a BSF of 98. I think that may be just a little generous, but overall I think the numbers are probably about right.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 29th, 2015 at 2:00:32 PM permalink
On Saturday several hours before they went to post for the Florida Derby but long after the UAE Derby was in the books, I saw Mubtaahij was listed at fixed odds of 20/1 from William Hill, and they still had Materiality up at 40/1. When I went to take another bite of Materiality at that price via their mobile app it returned a message saying something like "your wager has not been accepted due to exceeding the [something] risk threshold of [something or other] if you wish to request supervisor review and approval of your wager request [blah blah something]..." Screw that. I backed out of it, and after reducing the modest amount to an even smaller figure was able to make a further addition to my Materiality position before the Florida Derby, now giving me two pieces of him at 45/1 & 40/1.

At 20/1 Mubtaahij is the shortest price I've considered for any future wager, but I went ahead and added him to my future book stable, for an amount that is smaller than any of the other straight win future book interests I have. That one went through without setting off any sirens or summoning black helicopters with flashing blue & red lights.

If they don't mind keeping stale lines I don't mind buying a few of them, and if Bill Hill wishes to sell me some twenty dollar bills for $12.95 I'm probably willing to buy those too. I see Mubtaahij is currently (about 1:45pm Pacific) sitting at 8/1 and Materiality is at 12/1 in Churchill's parimutual pool. I've used Pool #4 to do some additional arbitrage again among multiple wagering interests with some of the exactas in that, but other than that did nothing further with any straight win bets in this final parimutual future pool.

My straight win Derby future stable is now: Bolo, Carpe Diem, Far From Over, Frosted, Khozan, Imperia, Itsaknockout, Lord Nelson, Materiality, Mubtaahij. The median odds on the various tickets is 35/1, now ranging from a low of 20/1 up to 100/1. The largest position in total investment is on Carpe Diem, and the biggest potential return is Bolo.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 29th, 2015 at 8:20:01 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Pardon me for going back to things that are now becoming old news in interwebz chatter time; I have all these pesky stacks of money to shovel out from under. I spend a lot of time mostly arriving at decisions to NOT bet, race after race after race, pass, pass, pass, and try to hit them hard when I eventually do find what I'm after. I liked Materiality a lot in that spot, so that was one of those.
[/end gloat]


Good to hear you won on him. I had the small late pick3 and double.

Quote: DrawingDead


Yes he'll have to spend some time in quarantine immediately on 'wheels down' amounting to about two or three days or so if I recall correctly. Afterward, he's also required by special security protocols for this race to be stabled on the grounds in a special stakes barn area for over three days before the race under continuous human and electronic surveillance, intended to prevent some forms of doping and other skulduggery. He could possibly ship over as late as the beginning of the same week as the race, and this is what some European entrants have done in the past.

I think it is a very bad idea to do it that way. I think we both have a bit of experience with long international flights of 16+ hours across many time zones, and the disruptive effects that can have on mind and body for a while. Furthermore, there are some differences at the starting gate and more significantly with the turns, among other things. In my opinion to have his best chance they'd be wise to ship in at least two weeks or so in advance to clear quarantine, adjust, school at the gate a little, and breeze around the turns, instead of what others have done when coming to this race from the other side of the globe.


According to Pat Cumming's (covers Dubai Racing) Twitter account, Mubtaahij is booked to fly out in about 2 weeks:
https://twitter.com/DubaiRaceNight
He also states CaliChrome is headed to Royal Ascot.
----------

I decided not to make any more wagers (only considered a few exactas) even with access to the 4th future pool. When we get this close to race day, I begin to lose interest in early wagering. Part of me just wants to wait and see who actually makes the gate. I will still consider one or two (longshots) depending on who is actually entered in the next 4 big preps.
----------

Not really sure Stanford is headed to Louisville yet (although he likely has the points), but if you get a chance to punch up his AWD, I would appreciate it.
Malibu Moon (AP Indy) out of a Distorted Humor mare. Sounds promising for classic distances.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 29th, 2015 at 9:00:30 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

According to Pat Cumming's (covers Dubai Racing) Twitter account, Mubtaahij is booked to fly out in about 2 weeks:
https://twitter.com/DubaiRaceNight

Thanks for that info. Seems like a very sound plan for his itinerary to me. I also learned this little tidbit on that Twitter feed:
Quote: Pat Cummings @DubaiRaceNight

Mubtaahij means cheery, or elated, in Arabic.


Quote: Keeneone

Not really sure Stanford is headed to Louisville yet (although he likely has the points), but if you get a chance to punch up his AWD, I would appreciate it.
Malibu Moon (AP Indy) out of a Distorted Humor mare. Sounds promising for classic distances.

At first glance I'd have thought so too, but when evaluating the field for the race at Fair Grounds I got him at just a tad over 7.0f AWD, which to me is pretty marginal for going much beyond middle distances and into classics of 1-1/4m and beyond. If he'd won the Louisiana Derby by open lengths I still wouldn't be eager to put him on any of my future book tickets, for that reason. I've repeatedly heard chatter for months to the effect that Pletcher and the owners have always been very high on him, and though being Grade 2 placed isn't half bad at all, I'd guess he hasn't quite run to their high expectation yet.

By the way, if that one ever finds his way onto a synthetic surface, or a very wet "off" track, lookout. His pedigree data top & bottom says "ka-boom!" for doing that.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 29th, 2015 at 9:21:35 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
At first glance I'd have thought so too, but when evaluating the field for the race at Fair Grounds I got him at just a tad over 7.0f AWD, which to me is pretty marginal for going much beyond middle distances and into classics of 1-1/4m and beyond. If he'd won the Louisiana Derby by open lengths I still wouldn't be eager to put him on any of my future book tickets, for that reason. I've repeatedly heard chatter for months to the effect that Pletcher and the owners have always been very high on him, and though being Grade 2 placed isn't half bad at all, I'd guess he hasn't quite run to their high expectation yet.
By the way, if that one ever finds his way onto a synthetic surface, or a very wet "off" track, lookout. His pedigree data top & bottom says "ka-boom!" for doing that.


Thanks for the AWD on Stanford. He has been second twice to "Big" Derby prep winners, is lightly raced, has 2 - 11/8mile races, and could certainly improve. I guess if he goes into the gate and the CD track is a swamp, we can consider him.
----------


I found another grey I previously missed: Gorgeous Bird



He is likely to run in the Bluegrass Stakes @ Keeneland.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 30th, 2015 at 12:02:54 PM permalink
Just because I know everybody here loves Andy Beyer's figures so much:

Mubtaahij joins the Derby fray
Quote: Jay Privman @Daily Racing Form

Mubtaahij received an estimated Beyer Speed Figure of 95 for the UAE Derby. Andrew Beyer and his associates, who compile the figures, do not regularly make numbers for Meydan but were able to make estimated figures for Saturday’s card because they could extrapolate from the known norm for American-based dirt horses in other races, such as California Chrome and Lea in the Dubai World Cup and Secret Circle in the Golden Shaheen...

Privman's piece includes a number of issues that have been discussed here, including the running times & condition of the main track at Gulfstream on Saturday, and Mubtaahij's travel schedule. It does require a DRF account log-in to read the entire article. I think it is well worth reading, more so than most. It quotes Michael de Kock stating that he has scheduled Mubtaahij to fly in on April 16th, and discusses a very dry surface and the Gulfstream maintenance crew's unsuccessful efforts to hydrate it as the cause of exceptionally slow times throughout the long card at GP. Oh, and in less important matters, Rick Violette was feeling really cheesed off at the track & the stewards.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf

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