Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 15th, 2015 at 11:55:02 AM permalink
My observations: He came home faster compared with any of the races that DD mentioned (the final 2.5 furlongs). While coming off a 6 month layoff, stumbling out of the gate, sprung a shoe, first time on a wet track, and carrying 4 pounds more than the older males in the Razorback (Race Day/Midnight Hawk). Is if he is happy and healthy, AP will be in the Derby. He has earned enough points to make the gate. I assume he will come back again in the Arkansas Derby. Maybe Mr Z (he might race in the LA Derby @ Fairgrounds) will run and we can see an honest pace up front on a fast track. I am glad we have some front running speed show up that seemed to be lacking so far in these preps.

I was disappointed with how Bold Conquest ran. I expected a 2nd place finish at a minimum and 20 Derby points for him. He ran very green around the first turn (same thing happened in the Southwest) changing course/steadied. He ran with his head high, could not change leads down the lane, or run straight, and just did not look comfortable. AP looked like a pro compared to Bold Conquest. I can only hope that he is still improving and did not enjoy his last 2 wet races in his 3yo campaign.
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Today, Sun 3/15
Aqueduct race#6 (3yo MSW 1 1/16mile)
I like #2 Money Multiplier. 3rd start for Chad Brown. All Hands and Arbitrator are also interesting runners. Not likely Derby runners, but they are 3 year-olds.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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March 15th, 2015 at 12:25:26 PM permalink
I don't know who wants to ship in to Hot Springs in April if the plan for his final prep remains the Arkansas Derby, as they've been talking about. It would need to have some competition with at least tactical speed if it isn't to be him just beating up on some of the locally stabled 3 Y/Os. Maybe they get that with the mile and an eighth and the lure of the qualifying points; they have had mostly full fields in the past even when the others in their series for three year olds leading up to it haven't. Baffert often does an excellent job of picking out races suited to his stock, especially when shipping into Oaklawn.

Rebel Stakes wins:
2015 Baffert
2014 Baffert
2013 Not Baffert
2012 Baffert
2011 Baffert
2010 Baffert

Southwest Stakes wins:
2015 Not Baffert
2014 Not Baffert
2013 Baffert
2012 Baffert
2011 Not Baffert
2010 Baffert

Rumored to soon be renamed "The Two To Five Stakes" and "The Baffert Invitational" respectively. A number of those Baffert colts eventually went on to become very good horses, though good at accomplishing widely varied things among them, including some who ended up as champion sprinters; while only one of these made the Derby at Churchill and he had a terrible trip in it that didn't really allow any possibility of seeing if he could have won it with his best race that day in 2010.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 15th, 2015 at 12:55:42 PM permalink
Today, Sun 3/15
Aqueduct race#6 (3yo MSW 1 1/16mile)
All Hands won on the front end. Brother of Eight Belles could get better over time.
-Money Multiplier did little and I stayed away from the betting window when he showed early @ 1/5. He went off @ 3/5.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 15th, 2015 at 3:07:33 PM permalink
Cashed my two Gulfstream turf races today & feeling flush I went and added Materiality to my Derby future book stable, for an amount smaller than the others, booked at 45/1 from Bill Hill. Shame on me for not doing any line shopping for this one; it was getting to the end of my day and week, and I don't want to be doing anything at all that requires going to a live betting window in any Las Vegas area book during the next few weeks of the March NCAA tournament. But I'll be annoyed with myself later if I find I could've booked him at 85/1 or something like that.

The straight win wager betting interests that I consider live (not including some others involved in exactas) are now: Carpe Diem, Bolo, Far From Over, Itsaknockout, Materiality. Not so live wagers at this point are: Frosted, Imperia, Khozan, Lord Nelson. I'll need to build an addition to make a bigger barn in my den this year, but they shouldn't be eating too much more feed with less than seven weeks to go. Nice horsey, there's your stall, here's a mint, now just relax and stretch with some equine yoga for a few weeks and please don't hurt yourself on the paper shredder.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
aceofspades
aceofspades
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March 15th, 2015 at 3:56:58 PM permalink
OK here is what I don't get about the prop bet of whether there will be a triple crown winner at all in 2015…how do they set the line at +600 yes and -1000 no

The triple crown is exceedingly difficult to accomplish — does 6 to 1 really get anyone's blood racing to bet it? You could make more wagering some long shots to Place or Show in each individual race - why such stingy odds?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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March 15th, 2015 at 4:18:02 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

OK here is what I don't get about the prop bet of whether there will be a triple crown winner at all in 2015…how do they set the line at +600 yes and -1000 no

The triple crown is exceedingly difficult to accomplish — does 6 to 1 really get anyone's blood racing to bet it? You could make more wagering some long shots to Place or Show in each individual race - why such stingy odds?


Probably to prevent hedging on the Belmont if a horse wins both the Derby and Preakness.

Then again, 1-10 is a little high for the "no". I wouldn't be surprised if there's quite a bit of action that way.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 15th, 2015 at 4:24:04 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Probably to prevent hedging on the Belmont if a horse wins both the Derby and Preakness.

The line will move. When that occurs and the horse comes out of the Preakness in sound condition, that won't be the line.

Of course the goal of setting any fixed odds line, and moving it, is to balance the action, as the book isn't seeking to become in-effect a bettor on any side. There's a general tendency toward bias in the wagering market for people to bet some props like this as fans of "their" horse they've become enthusiastic about. And the "no" side is obviously not much of a vehicle for a fan to express their feelings for any one object of their enthusiasm.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
aceofspades
aceofspades
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March 15th, 2015 at 4:29:33 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

The line will move. When that occurs and the horse comes out of the Preakness in sound condition, that won't be the line.




But I am referring to right now, before any race has been run - how can something so difficult to attain be merely 6-1?

6-1 on whether any horse will win all three races - no thanks - might as well just bet whoever is 6-1 to win the Kentucky Derby or any other race on any given day

6-1 on one of the hardest things to do in sports history —— not even close to enticing
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 15th, 2015 at 4:37:39 PM permalink
^I agree that 6/1 on "yes" in a Triple Crown prop at this time is not at all enticing strictly as a rational value proposition. But that line implies there is action on that side of it at that price. I doubt the money on "yes" is coldly considering probabilities.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
aceofspades
aceofspades
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March 15th, 2015 at 4:39:23 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

^I agree that 6/1 on "yes" in a Triple Crown prop at this time is not at all enticing strictly as a rational value proposition. But that line implies there is action on that side of it at that price. I doubt the money on "yes" is coldly considering probabilities.





Yeah makes no sense to place that wager at all — give me +10000 and I'll put 1000 on it

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