beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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March 8th, 2015 at 8:27:32 AM permalink
re: the superscript 3. There is also a formatting code for that on here, which is like this (hit quote to see it, the command is "sup" using brackets to turn it on and off). "sub" works the same way for subscript like this. All FWIW, but I think it's easier to use than remembering the ASCII number.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 8th, 2015 at 10:01:18 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

re: the superscript 3. There is also a formatting code for that on here, which is like this (hit quote to see it, the command is "sup" using brackets to turn it on and off). "sub" works the same way for subscript like this. All FWIW, but I think it's easier to use than remembering the ASCII number.



Thanks for the help with thatthough now I'm prolly doomed to spend the rest of the afternoon playing with my new virtual toy.

But I'm sure that won't beannoying at all2.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 8th, 2015 at 12:14:37 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Andrew Beyer has given the Gotham a speed figure of 85, the Tampa Bay Derby time got a 98, and the San Felipe got a 104 figure from Beyer.


Beyer speed figures can be challenging to figure out. I know there are many inputs and adjustments, but sometimes they do not make logical sense to me. My overly simplistic view of recent numbers (with a heavy bias towards running times):

Constitution: GP 07 Feb 1 1/8M 113 (final time: 1:49.51)
Materiality: GP 06 Mar 1 1/8M 104 (final time: 1:49.32)
-One of these has to be over-inflated or under-inflated. Did Materiality just run one of the best 3yo races we have seen in only his second start @ 11/8mile? (thanks BBB for the sup tip) And was Materiality's race really just as good as Dortmund's race (see below)?


Khozan: GP 24 Jan 7F 103 (final time: 1:23.63)
Barbados: GP 24 Jan 7F 92 (final time: 1:24.39)
Daredevil: GP 07 Mar 7F 102 (final time: ?)
Ready for Rye: GP 07 Mar 7F 108 (final time: 1:22.39)
-This set makes a little more sense, but how does a 3yo sprint race earn the highest 3yo number so far this year? And was Ready For Rye's race really better than Dortmund's race (see below)?


Dortmund: SA 07 Feb 1 1/16M 104 (final time: 1:42.20)
Dortmund: SA 07 Mar 1 1/16M 104 (final time: 1:41.65)
Improved field, improved running time, improved pacemaking style....why no improvement in his number?
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 8th, 2015 at 12:32:42 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

-snip-
4. Big Cap - I love Shared Belief. I don't think I'm a great handicapper, but yesterday when I saw the late pick-4, I saw a free space at the end, I saw a 2 horse race in the 2nd leg (Kobe's Back never seems to have enough), and I saw 2 races that anyone could win. So my pick-4 was ALL / 4, 7 / ALL / Shared Belief - for $77. And it went 19-1, 9-5, 7-1, 1-5 for a payout of $800. I wish every Saturday was that easy. And Shared Belief just jogged around, what a horse.


Nice win on the late Pick 4. Good payout for $0.50 base wager. When someone hits the late Pick 4 I wonder how they did on the Pick 6 @ Santa Anita. I then remember how expensive a Pick 6 ticket is with that many selections.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 8th, 2015 at 1:26:56 PM permalink
RE: Beyer or other speed figures

The purpose is to provide a means to adjust for differences in track condition, both for comparison among different tracks, and also importantly at the same track at different times as the "same" racing surface changes. Running a mile & 1/16th in 1:433 (yippee I can finally indicate the traditional racing measurement of fifths) could be a big performance that was very fast on a 'dull' slow drying-out surface on Thursday while a time of 1:424 at the very same track might really be a very slow poor effort on a 'tight' hard-packed surface on Sunday, and sometimes a track can even undergo a major shift in surface condition in the middle of a day of racing.

In any effort to adjust for these differences, whether by Beyer or others, typically one starts with common plain vanilla type races for horses that are very well known established quantities that are largely interchangeable from place to place and day to day such as races for 10k claimers, which are compared to "par" or average times for that class and distance at that track and to the prior performances of those same animals to determine a pattern of variance for that day (or even sometimes a partial day) at that track, and the variant one arrives at, which may be something like "main track was slow by 3/5ths in sprints & slow by 6/5ths in routes" is then applied to the racecard when producing a figure for comparison. It does require judgment in arriving at the variant and sometimes has issues.

I find it is useful for comparing dirt races but should not be used blindly to the exclusion of other factors. And I find it utterly ridiculous and completely without merit in grass racing, which I suspect Beyer and his crew knows, but nowadays has to go ahead and do anyway because the Racing Form pays him and his crew to cook a number for everything that's run at the track regardless.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 8th, 2015 at 1:59:56 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

RE: Beyer or other speed figures -snip-


Another great explanation....thanks again. As you can tell I put a small value on these types of numbers. Mostly because I do not know how to apply past numbers with future number potential. So to focus this discussion on 3yo runners, what does Materiality's and Dortmund's equal Beyer(104) mean? "Nothing" is a completely acceptable answer.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 8th, 2015 at 2:20:43 PM permalink
Wynn now has a number of Derby props available.

Kentucky Derby Points Prop (minimum # of Derby points to make and run*)
Over 20.5 points Even
Under 20.5 points -120
*must run in the Derby

Will any horse win the 2015 Triple Crown?
Yes +650
No -850

Will a horse win any 2 of the 2015 Triple Crown Races?
Yes +190
No -220

Official winning time of the 2015 Kentucky Derby
Over 202.20 -110
Under 202.20 -110
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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March 8th, 2015 at 2:47:17 PM permalink
The Beyer numbers, I just stopped looking at them for anything. Big issue I had was taking the numbers for different race lengths. From my understanding, they just add an arbitrary 6 seconds per 1/16 mile. There is no attempt to add a second or two for horses that have never ran the distance, or any other factors that may add time for the extra distance. Which to me basically makes the numbers worthless unless comparing exact same distances. And, when I do that, the numbers are still off to me. So, I stopped looking at them. It's a good idea, but way too flawed IMO.

At this point I'd rather just make the time adjustments myself, I at least add time for extra distance. And, then basically come up with an estimated time for the race. A 1.45.40 I might adjust to an est. 1.43.20 or est. 1.46.80 etc. I don't see the need for a speed figure of 104 or 85, but then again if someone was going to pay me for it, I could certainly give 'em a number.

And, also, for me the time doesn't have to be all that accurate, it doesn't have to be down to the tenth of a second. I just want to know if the horse is going to be able to run with the other horses or not. Then make all the adjustments for the upcoming race, pace/jockey/trainer/owner/track/running style and everything else. Anyway, that's the way I think about it.

And then after all that, Ocean Knight will duel it out for last place, and finish 30 lenths off the lead. A friendly reminder that this is actual gambling at it's finest. :)
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 8th, 2015 at 2:50:55 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Another great explanation....thanks again. As you can tell I put a small value on these types of numbers. Mostly because I do not know how to apply past numbers with future number potential. So to focus this discussion on 3yo runners, what does Materiality's and Dortmund's equal Beyer(104) mean? "Nothing" is a completely acceptable answer.

If they were both fully mature consistently sound five year-old geldings going six furlongs for the twenty-third time, it would mean a dead heat. But these are not five year-old geldings, and their goal is to be doing something different in eight weeks which is not going to be six furlongs once again for the 23rd time. So what it means to me is not nothing, but for THIS purpose what I most want to see now is a distinct pattern of improvement with both added distance and more weeks of continued growth for these developing adolescents. I will forgive some mistakes and an outburst of surly behavior but will not tolerate seeing my equine DDead Jr. settling in to just munching the same Cheetos in the same chair at the same pace from week to week while some of his formerly more awkward classmates continue taking new steps to become something more and better and move on.

Besides a pattern of improvement or absence of it, figures adjusting the times for comparison of races at different tracks becomes acutely relevant to the purpose here, more so than for just about any other race with the possible exception of some Breeders' Cup events. Good luck trying to get something that ran 1:49 flat on an average day on the facile Santa Anita surface to struggle to stay anywhere near one who took 1:492 at the same distance on an average day on the Churchill or Fair Grounds or Gulfstream surface, or even more so on the main track route surface at Tampa. The superficially "faster" SA runner would be hard pressed to stay within ten lengths at the wire, so the translation of raw times from different venues to a common scale for comparison can easily amount to the difference between being clearly first or dead last. And I could have constructed a difference in raw untranslated times that amounts to more than twenty lengths for exactly the same effort if I chose to get into things like the same distance being a race around two turns at one track while it is a one turn race out of a chute on the backstretch at another.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 9th, 2015 at 1:15:49 AM permalink
Good:

http://www.drf.com/news/premium/top-san-felipe-finishers-set-rematch-santa-anita-derby (most of the text of this piece, which includes reporting on the trainers' remarks, is behind a DRF subscriber paywall)

Quote: Daily Racing Form

ARCADIA, Calif. Dortmund, Prospect Park, and Bolo the first three finishers in the San Felipe Stakes on Saturday at Santa Anita all came out of the race well and are set for a rematch in four weeks in the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby, their trainers said Sunday morning.


I wanted to see most of them go again at a mile and an eighth.

The remarks in the rest of the post-race piece include Sise saying Prospect Park is still learning and that he thinks he will improve with distance, some complaints by Cassidy about Ocho's rough trip, and Carla Gaines regretting interruptions in Bolo's training & suggesting he may have been light on conditioning for the race. After the race I was feeling unsure about how to interpret what I think this effort told me, and still am. I'm glad to hear she's planning to take him to that race on April 4th.

And good again; as expected, Pletcher confirms Carpe Diem will be headed to the Blue Grass on April 4th: http://www.drf.com/news/premium/carpe-diem-points-blue-grass-following-tampa-bay-triumph
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf

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