Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 6th, 2015 at 7:09:53 PM permalink
Last but certainly not least....Saturday 3/7

Tampa Bay Downs race #11 - Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2 (1 1/16mile - 350k)
1 - Divining Rod
2 - Ocean Knight
3 - Carpe Diem
4 - Ami's Flatter
5 - My Johnny Be Good
6 - Souper Colossal
7 - Great Stuff
8 - Moonlight Bandit
9 - Danzig Moon

-I have been plugging Carpe Diem for a long time. I really liked his 2yo season and have felt he should be one of the Derby favorites. Although it has been some time since his last race (4+ months), many are hoping for big things from this guy in his 3yo season. He has been working great but is up against a solid field in this event. Unfortunately his odds have never been great for Derby future wagers. This is not always a bad thing when betting futures. IMO, The value has not been there, so I will just have to wait until race day (if he makes it) to get any more money on him. He obviously is not alone in this race and the late addition of Ocean Knight makes for a very good event. I also look forward to the Canadian Bred, Danzig Moon, to face winners and continue stretching out to longer distances. I project a little faster pace for this one (over the Sam F Davis) based on the entrants. The Tampa Bay Derby could be the key race of the weekend, or it could not....We shall see.
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
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March 6th, 2015 at 11:58:06 PM permalink
San Felipe I like Dortmund, I think Ocho Ocho Ocho is in a pretty bad spot, he either has to go to the lead early or get sandwiched between 2 Baffert horses. I don't see him getting the trip he wants here. If Bolo goes to the lead, like he did his last 2 races, I think he's going to have problems as well. I'm guessing.

1. Dortmund
2. Prospect Park
3. Ocho Ocho Ocho
4. Lord Nelson

The Tampa Bay Derby I'm guessing.

1. Ocean Knight
2. Divining Rod
3. Carpe Diem
4. Ami's Flatter

And for the Gotham, I like El Kabeir for this race, and Tencendur is a horse I've like for a while he's had a couple bullet works coming into this, and I'm hoping he really comes into his own here. I'm guessing.

1. El Kabeir
2. Tencendur
3. Classy Class
4. Lietanant Colonel
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 7th, 2015 at 12:56:22 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

I think we were posting at the same time.

I looked for something from you before I wrote & posted that, since I thought you'd probably already be on it, and yet I see yours is actually time stamped earlier. An odd little forum thing that I've seen before & I don't really get how that happens (since I still didn't see it when mine was up) but of course not important. It can be important for folks generally to re-check things before making a future wager, because I've seen betting interests stay up (and probably take some action) for a while after a wagering interest was out of contention. I don't attribute that to books being nefarious to attract dead money; some of them just have another thing or two or three to keep up with.

This weekend it does start getting more serious, and while the Aqueduct race appears inferior to me both the Tampa & Santa Anita events do look great on paper either as betting races or simply enjoyed as high level professional sporting events with a lot at stake, foe some more than others. Personally I feel a lot more definite about my opinions of who is and is not likely to be a mile and a quarter horse at Churchill than I do about the results of these specific events at this time at today's distance at these tracks. Baffert always works a hole in the wind with his stock, and if one of his doesn't spit some bullets in the morning I assume the poor beast only has three legs attached, but I see a 7f drill in 1:25 & change for Dortmund. Egads. I wouldn't consider betting him at anything close to the likely price, but still. Seven panels is a rare workout anywhere, and when I see a sub-1:26 handle on one of those for anything, anywhere, by anyone I always want to stop and carefully re-evaluate the race.

ADD:

But I'll bite and go ahead with some not at all confident predictions, just for sport, and without regard for wagering value. I may not even bet these, or could conceivably play against them depending on the tote board, relative value in a particular wagering pool, and physical appearance on the track or any scratches affecting the race shape. Besides the deserving heavy favorite (who I don't like for 10f at CD - but this isn't that) I could see any of five possibly getting their picture taken in the San Felipe:

Tampa Bay Derby
1. Carpe Diem
2. Danzig Moon
3. Ocean Knight

San Felipe
1. Dortmund
2. Bolo
3. Lord Nelson

Gotham
I'm hearing a little late buzz going around touting both Lieutenant Colonel, and also to some degree Tencendur with an equipment change (blinkers on followed by sharper works). But I have no idea, and El Kabeir obviously lays over the field strictly on speed figures and accomplishment to date.

ADD again:
Quote: Keeneone

Ocho³

By the way, how do you make the little superscript "3" appear as you just did for Ocho cubed?
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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March 7th, 2015 at 10:28:26 AM permalink
Quote: JyBrd0403

San Felipe I like Dortmund, I think Ocho Ocho Ocho is in a pretty bad spot, he either has to go to the lead early or get sandwiched between 2 Baffert horses. I don't see him getting the trip he wants here. If Bolo goes to the lead, like he did his last 2 races, I think he's going to have problems as well. I'm guessing.

1. Dortmund
2. Prospect Park
3. Ocho Ocho Ocho
4. Lord Nelson


I would be surprised if Bolo goes for the lead in this race. It could happen, but I agree with you that it may compromise his chances in here. Turf speed vs. Dirt speed really are two different things. Drawing Dead probably has a better understanding/opinion of this comparison.

Quote: JyBrd0403

The Tampa Bay Derby I'm guessing.

1. Ocean Knight
2. Divining Rod
3. Carpe Diem
4. Ami's Flatter


Logical picks for this one. Ami's Flatter is interesting in here. They are trying all the options for this race: Blinkers on and first Lasix.

Quote: JyBrd0403

And for the Gotham, I like El Kabeir for this race, and Tencendur is a horse I've like for a while he's had a couple bullet works coming into this, and I'm hoping he really comes into his own here. I'm guessing.

1. El Kabeir
2. Tencendur
3. Classy Class
4. Lietanant Colonel


El Kabeir is the one to beat. What, no Pletcher horse in the top 4?
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 7th, 2015 at 10:54:02 AM permalink
Result
Saturday 3/7/2015: Meydan race#2 Al Bastakiya Stakes (1 3/16mile - 250k)
3 - Mubtaahij (IRE) - (Wynn 125/1, W Hill 75/1) - Won.
2 - Sir Fever (URU) - Ran Second.
-Ajwad probably was the rabbit, Sir Fever was pushed early, but Mubtaahij broke on top, rated perfectly behind the leaders, and finished nicely down the lane. I guess the next stop is the UAE Derby, a rematch with Maftool, and some other runners shipping in from Europe.
----------

Quote: DrawingDead

By the way, how do you make the little superscript "3" appear as you just did for Ocho cubed?


Press and hold Alt key then type 0179

Here is another keyboard Alt code example:
Kentucky Derby is run at a distance of 1 1/4 mile.
or
Kentucky Derby is run at a distance of 1¼ mile. (Alt 0188 for the 1/4 part)
Tomspur
Tomspur
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March 7th, 2015 at 2:08:41 PM permalink
Mubtaahij ran well but the 2nd horse looked decidedly big. I don't think he will be fully ready for the UAE Derby but there you have it. Maftool still has to be a bigger threat even though I believe Mubtaahij is a better horse and will win the UAE Derby.

Just because I'm South African and just because Mubtaahij is trained by a South African, I'm dead happy with my 175/1 ticket.

I can surely have a worse bet standing? :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Keeneone
Keeneone
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March 7th, 2015 at 8:50:04 PM permalink
Results for Saturday 3/7

Aqueduct race #9 - Gotham Stakes (1 1/16mile - 400k)
El Kabeir won.
-They all came home slow and looked very tired in the heavy going. El Kabeir overcame the high-weight and adopted a new style from well off the pace. I was certainly impressed by his versatility. Still not convinced the New York horses (Jerome/Gotham runners) are in the top tier of Derby hopefuls. Not that they can be ignored, but none would make my personal top ten at the moment. I give JyBrd0403 a lot of credit for the prediction of no Pletcher runners in the top 4.




Tampa Bay Downs race #11 - Tampa Bay Derby Grade 2 (1 1/16mile - 350k)
Carpe Diem - Won.
Ami's Flatter - Ran Second.
-Carpe Diem ran the way you want great horses to win, like a champ. Just off the pace, makes the lead on the far turn, and pulling away to the wire. Ami's Flatter ran big and finished up nicely to earn some nice Derby points. Ocean Knight bounced. CD ran a similar time to Ocean Knight's Sam F Davis (same distance).




Santa Anita race #7 - San Felipe Stakes (1 1/16 - 400k)
Dortmund won, Prospect Park ran second, and Bolo ran 3rd.
Dortmund flat out took this race to the other runners. He was headed again (this time by Bolo) only to come back again down the lane. He seems beatable to me and I have been reluctant to fully support him, yet he continues to win. The pace was quick but did not unfold as I anticipated. Dortmund completed the distance in a faster time (about a half second) than the Robert B Lewis. Ocho³ lost a lot of ground/momentum at the start after getting pinched in by Dortmund and Lord Nelson. Bolo looked super keen to run early, clearly tired late, and probably needed the race. He shifted inside late (because Dortmund came out a little) and that likely cost him the place and some solid Derby points. I just wish he could have rated a little better. I certainly felt his first dirt race was promising, but his connections may see things differently and just move him back to the turf.

DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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March 7th, 2015 at 10:35:21 PM permalink
Andrew Beyer has given the Gotham a speed figure of 85, the Tampa Bay Derby time got a 98, and the San Felipe got a 104 figure from Beyer.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
JyBrd0403
JyBrd0403
Joined: Jan 25, 2010
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March 7th, 2015 at 11:16:57 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

-Carpe Diem ran the way you want great horses to win, like a champ. Just off the pace, makes the lead on the far turn, and pulling away to the wire.



Absolutely agree with everything you said here. Great call by you and DD, very impressive race all around. And, 1.43.60 ... wow.

The San Felipe still puzzles me. I can't say if Ocho Ocho Ocho just broke bad or if Smith held him up, but if it was the latter it makes zero sense to me. You could almost hear Garcia and Bejarano laughing. Bolo I thought ran well, better then I thought he would when he went to the front.

El Kabeir, just outclassed the field, pro vs. amateurs.

All in all a very fun Saturday.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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March 8th, 2015 at 8:12:25 AM permalink
4 points:

1. Gotham - Surprised the figure came back so low on El Kabeir. But it's clear he's the only "local" shot in the Wood in 4 weeks. I don't see him as a Derby winner, but I guess I could see him pick up some kind of check.

2. TB Derby - Pletcher doesn't lose in March (except for horses getting injured), so this one was easy to figure. It looked very impressive visually, but the question of course is, who was he facing?

3. San Felipe - I had heard some good things about Bolo and really thought he was going to finish 2nd. Dortmund looks like a serious horse, but he's just so big. I keep hearing the same questions about whether he's too big, and too hard to ride. The one thing that struck me yesterday was one commentator saying he doesn't have a high "cruising speed". But he's a fighter, which everyone knows is important for the Derby. So far his price is looking like it'll be too short for me on Derby Day.

4. Big Cap - I love Shared Belief. I don't think I'm a great handicapper, but yesterday when I saw the late pick-4, I saw a free space at the end, I saw a 2 horse race in the 2nd leg (Kobe's Back never seems to have enough), and I saw 2 races that anyone could win. So my pick-4 was ALL / 4, 7 / ALL / Shared Belief - for $77. And it went 19-1, 9-5, 7-1, 1-5 for a payout of $800. I wish every Saturday was that easy. And Shared Belief just jogged around, what a horse.

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