DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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February 24th, 2015 at 5:21:59 PM permalink
What's striking to me is the relative lack of speed/pace competition if this was the complete and final field for an actual race held tomorrow. Someone would steal it. I think some of this may partly be an unintended side-effect of the relatively new designated-race points system Churchill cooked up, but I hope and expect this won't quite be what the actual starting gate looks like when we get there.

For convenience in case anyone is interested in this element I've inserted the average winning distance derived from the pedigree of each of them.
Quote: Keeneone

Kentucky Derby Future Pool #3 is out. Link to the live odds (will be available on Friday):
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/racing-wagering/future-wager/pool-3-final-odds

Pool #3 lineup w/morning line listed. ( * = new runner )

7.0f 1. American Pharoah 8-1
7.6f 2. Bolo 50-1 *
7.9f 3. CarpeDiem 12-1
7.4f 4. Danzig Moon 50-1 *
7.1f 5. Daredevil 30-1
7.0f 6. Dortmund 8-1
7.2f 7. El Kabeir 30-1
8.0f 8. Far From Over 15-1 *
6.5f 9. Far Right 20-1
6.9f 10. Firing Line 20-1
7.4f 11. International Star 20-1
7.5f 12. Itsaknockout 20-1
7.4f 13. Keen Ice 50-1 *
7.6f 14. Khozan 15-1
7.6f 15. Lord Nelson 30-1
7.0f 16. Mr. Z 50-1
7.1f 17. Ocean Knight 15-1
7.3f 18. Ocho Ocho Ocho 20-1
7.2f 19. Prospect Park 30-1
8.0f 20. Texas Red 12-1
7.3f 21. The Great War 30-1
6.9f 22. Upstart 15-1
7.0f 23. War Story 30-1 *
N/A 24. Mutuel Field – All Other 3-1

This is the time of year when we'll begin seeing a lot more public remarks commenting on the likely suitability of Derby prospects based on pedigree. There are varied ways of going about this which can be useful, and mine is not one of the most common, just one that I happen to prefer in part because it is constructed entirely from a meaningfully large and stubbornly objective use of quantitative data, and therefore resists the horsey themed gambler's typical "wishing, hoping, guessing, and believing."

In addition to other potentially useful ways of looking at this question of distance potential and the related likely growth curve, there will also always be some racing or general sports journalists, sometimes individuals published by some of the most widely read publications, which are complete and utter trash. Happens every year, and will happen more frequently as we get closer to the event.

I can explain if someone wants, but briefly for the moment here are a couple of the most common and severely egregious things to avoid: #2) Any purported analysis of pedigree which ignores the 50% which is inherited through the female family; and worse, #1) Something making the most significant reference to the extremely sparse mostly non-inheritable and nearly irrelevant information of the race record of a sire and/or dam (i.e. foolishness like "Touch Gold won the Belmont Stakes!" or "Big Brown was an easy Derby winner!" or "Midnight Lute was a sprinter who never even won around two turns!") rather than the much more extensive and predictive thousands of data points provided by the race records of their offspring. For a boatload of reasons the race records of the sire, dam, grandsires, etc. of a horse are completely, totally, utterly, profoundly irrelevant to a determination of what their progeny will be likely to do, and when one sees someone remarking on that for this purpose to fill column inches somewhere it is a stone cold "tell" that the author has no clue whatsoever what they are doing, and that they can and should be completely ignored.

Or not, as you wish. Good luck.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
Joined: Aug 16, 2014
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February 24th, 2015 at 5:24:38 PM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I'm interested in seeing Ocho Ocho Ocho run again as his damsire is a south african stallion who passed away last week of heart failure at the age of 19 (Horse Chestnut). It seems as if he will be a much better broodmare sire than actual sire even though he had a G1 and several G2 performers. Never got the support in the USA.

Any idea where he may start next?


He has been training @ Santa Anita and I have read he will enter the San Felipe March 7th @ Santa Anita.
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 24th, 2015 at 5:38:54 PM permalink
Your recent post reminded me of an earlier post on the AWD numbers you calculate.

Quote: DrawingDead

-edited-
Of the last ten Derby winners, four were graded stakes winners at two, six were at least two year-old graded stakes placed, and eight won or placed in stakes of some level at two when minor ungraded or restricted events are included. The stakes wins and placings at two were in the late season events of October, November, and December such as the Hollywood Futurity and Kentucky Jockey Club, rather than at tracks with major early 2 y/o graded stakes events such as Saratoga. The average number of starts at two among these Derby winners was 3.8, but this number is inflated by two apparent outliers who each had seven 2 y/o starts. Those two shared a peculiarity: They both had done their significant racing as two year-olds on Polytrack, rather than conventional dirt. All the others were at four 2 y/o starts and below, equally distributed between 1 and 4 starts at two. Of the ten, only one had a pedigree that was unsuited to ten furlongs, none were marginally qualified for the distance by the AWD standards I use, and 9 of 10 were clearly very well qualified by this metric for staying 10f or more.
-edited-


Bolding mine
I probably missed this somewhere along the way, but what was/is the minimum AWD for "very well qualified" runners?
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 24th, 2015 at 5:50:05 PM permalink
Nine came in at 7.3f or greater. California Chrome was 6.8f.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Keeneone
Keeneone
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February 24th, 2015 at 7:33:45 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Nine came in at 7.3f or greater. California Chrome was 6.8f.


Thanks again.
----------

Some racing this week:

Thur. 2/26 Fairgrounds race #7 (AOC - 50k - 1mile 70yards)
1 - A. Rod Again (Wynn 250/1)
2 - Defondo (Wynn 250/1)
7 - Vici (Wynn 175/1)
----------

Fri. 2/27 Santa Anita race #6 (AOC - 80k - 1 1/16mile)
3 - Eckersley (Wynn 250/1)
4 - Cyrus Alexander (Wynn 40/1,W Hill 40/1,Westgate 75/1)
- Logical next step for Cyrus against winners for the 1st time.
----------

Fri. 2/27 Laurel Park race #9 (AOC - 40k - 1mile)
4 - Ghost Bay (Wynn 75/1, W Hill 150/1, Westgate 125/1)
5 - Top of Mind (Wynn 200/1)
- Both these are working well in Maryland after recent wins.
----------

Sat. 2/28 Turfway Park race #6 John Battaglia Memorial Stakes (125k - 1 1/16mile)
3 - Royal Son (Wynn 200/1,W Hill 200/1,Westgate 300/1)
4 - Task Force Glory (Wynn 200/1)
9 - Firespike (Wynn 175/1,W Hill 125/1,Westgate 125/1)
11 - The Great War (Wynn 45/1,W Hill 60/1,Westgate 40/1) - 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Derby pool horse.
- Royal Son is obviously trying something new (blinkers and polytrack) after a disappointing run in the Sam F Davis. The Great War did not get the best post, but good horses can overcome these things (just look @ Ocean Knight). Firespike is a runner with multiple stakes wins and has won on dirt,turf, and sythetic.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
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February 25th, 2015 at 8:13:14 AM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

He has been training @ Santa Anita and I have read he will enter the San Felipe March 7th @ Santa Anita.



Thank you.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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February 26th, 2015 at 10:39:56 PM permalink
Ahem.

Texas Red gets more time to heal
Quote: Steve Anderson @Daily Racing Form

“I’ll give him an extra week, and I think with three works, he’ll be fine,” Desormeaux said.

Quote: Google Trainerspeak>>>English translator

I only had the one really good horse in my barn, and he was all of 'em, dammit!


Buh-bye to some of those Pool #2 exactas 'o mine. Hardly had time to know ya. So it goes. And will again before we get there. I expect about 40-50% of my future book tickets to still be live when they load at the gate, and view prices on them accordingly; if any more than that make it to post time for this I'll consider it an exceptionally good year for the Derby futures.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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February 28th, 2015 at 6:28:57 PM permalink
Well now. The Battaglia, with The Great War bet down to thirty-cents on the dollar:



My tentative explanations for that result:

  1. One of the reasons The Great War was sent over from Europe was that he was prone to respiratory bleeding. It is possible that he may have bled through Lasix (a diuretic used in part to control that problem, not allowed in Europe). I'm sure they'll "scope" him after the race, and I'll be interested to watch for any reports that may come from that.

    Or, what I think is the more likely explanation for his performance:

  2. I was wrong about that horse, and Keeneone's skepticism about his distance proclivity was well founded.

Either way, whether bleeding through Lasix or just short trying to go two-turns, I'd have to consider him a very unlikely Derby candidate now.

But it was all good, since he was bet down way too hard to get even slightly tempted to put money on him today, and of course the needy Todd Pletcher stable did not have nearly enough Derby contenders. I'm not yet sure what I want to think of Royal Son's apparent dramatic form reversal at Turfway. He's absolutely bred for distance, big-time. But with TGW spitting out the bit so conclusively, I don't know what kind he just beat in this.

My most firm opinion about this race: "Pepper Roani" is definitely a better name for a horse than "Goat."

EDIT: Corrected spelling of the pizza topping horse.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
Joined: Sep 29, 2010
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February 28th, 2015 at 8:00:31 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

If your name isn't nailed to the furniture on Derby day, you aren't getting in. Not to sit. Not even "just for a minute." You may or may not be allowed to take a leak in the restroom if you aren't known individually and specifically to the management as a raceplayer who is there for the Derby. The racebook side of the books, which in most places is larger than the sports side, will not be allowing anyone in who does not have their name on a seat which is reserved for them, usually after making arrangements with management for it more than a month in advance for Derby weekend. The sports or boxing kiddies won't be getting in to the racebook areas on those days. At all. And they will throw little hissy fit tantrums when they are told that and escorted out, as they always do, since they don't read and wouldn't follow written directions even if they did. "But I bet FIE-HUNNERT-dollahs on Leroy to kill Bubba!" (worth all of about twenty-bucks in gross revenue before expenses to sell the sports ticket). I strongly suggest folks don't procrastinate beyond early April to make those arrangements if you want to do Derby day in a book, doesn't matter who also thinks they're gonna happen to be punching or bouncing or kicking who or what on that same day.



I have been to the Breeder's Cup party at the Orleans many times, and think they hold one for the Derby too. Put it on in one of their ballrooms with wagering right inside, beats fighting the crowds in the book.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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February 28th, 2015 at 9:06:11 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

I have been to the Breeder's Cup party at the Orleans many times, and think they hold one for the Derby too. Put it on in one of their ballrooms with wagering right inside, beats fighting the crowds in the book.

You're right of course, for many people that would naturally be the best way for them to go. I knew they almost all put on some version of that every year for both the Derby and Breeders' Cup, but I didn't even think about it, since I'm always in the book, where even a couple of feet of elbow to elbow standing room on that day isn't available if you didn't plan ahead.

For me there are some important practical reasons about the way I wager to absolutely positively want to be in the book to do it, and more specifically at one of the IPT (Individual Player Terminal) seats within the racebook. But most people aren't wagering via IPTs and the things that make that important to me and vital to have reserved for me on that day won't matter to a lot of other folks, and I'm sure the special party atmosphere is a better thing for them. Meanwhile, I'm doing the opposite of throwing a party; for example I informally "train" the regular waitresses in the books I use to please me by staying out of my way and to use the time to serve everybody else. But of course, if you don't need some of the particular equipment that's only in the regular book, then those special occasion Derby events in the ballrooms and whatnot are probably a great thing, and more readily available. Just like they do for NCAA "March Madness" and the Event That Casinos Are Forbidden by the NFL's Lawyers to Call a Super Bowl.

Thanks for pointing it out. It should've been obvious to me when I wrote that reply, but I sometimes forget they are there. You probably helped a silent lurker somewhere who isn't familiar with it.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf

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