EdCollins
EdCollins
Joined: Oct 21, 2011
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 1215
October 20th, 2014 at 2:36:25 PM permalink
I'm sure most all of you NFL fans heard that Payton Manning broke Favre's TD pass record, with four TD passes last night, and now has 510 total for his career.

Maybe it's just me, but I've never been a big fan of "TD passes." I think that stat is overrated.

Example:

Team #1 is on their own 1-yard line. QB #1 hands off to a running back, who runs for one yard. This team is now at their own 2-yard line. QB #1 then tosses a shovel pass to a receiver who scoots his way 98 yards for a TD.

Team #2, executes these same two plays but in the opposite order. QB #2, also from their own 1-yard line, first tosses a shovel pass to his receiver who scoots his way for 98 yards before being tackled at the opponent's yard line. QB #2 then hands off to a running back who runs that one yard and a touchdown.

Two QBs both executing the exact same plays, but just in a different order. However, QB #1, will be given credit for a touchdown pass, and with it he will be given a higher quarterback rating.

The NFL formula for a QB's passer rating can be found here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating

A perfect rating is 158.3. (It doesn't get any higher than that.)

I think the formula factors TD passes too much. More often than not, a TD pass is a result of the performance of the receiver after the catch. The receiver crosses a predetermined line on the field (the goal line) and when doing so, improves the qb rating of the one who threw him the ball.

On December 20, 2007, Ben Roethilisberger had a perfect QB rating of 158.3 with 16 completions out of 20 attempts for 261 yards and 3 TDs. (No interceptions) Not bad but...

...a QB with a 24 completions out of 24 attempts for 400 yards and just 2 TDs (and no interceptions) would only have a QB rating of 146.5.

This QB had a much higher completion percentage AND threw for more yards per completion, but for one less TD. I contend his performance is just as good, if not better, than Ben's performance.


It's fun to put that formula into Excel and then play with different scenarios. For example, Romo's one interception against the Giants yesterday was a direct result of Bryant falling down on the route. Romo ended up with a QB rating of 135.7 yesterday. Take away that interception and his rating yesterday would have been 153.8.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
October 20th, 2014 at 3:01:22 PM permalink
It just a number. Something for fantasy football losers as far as I am concerned.

I like Johnny Unitas's definition of a great quarterback. 2 world championships. Might exclude 1 or 2 QBS , but can't argue with those that qualify !
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 219
  • Posts: 11247
October 20th, 2014 at 3:05:56 PM permalink
I think the TD passes is an important *team* stat for handicapping, but for a QB there is much more to consider. One of the best stats for a QB is yards-per-attempt. Think about it, any QB can throw the ball all over the field, but YPA considers that they completed long passes or threw to a receiver who could get yards after the catch.

An even better stat for handicapping. Its not if you win or lose instead, its whether or not you beat the spread.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 69
  • Posts: 5598
October 20th, 2014 at 3:13:17 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard



I like Johnny Unitas's definition of a great quarterback. 2 world championships. Might exclude 1 or 2 QBS , but can't argue with those that qualify !



I disagree. I would not consider Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger great quarterbacks. Definitely good quarterbacks but not great. I wouldn't elect either of those to the Hall of Fame based on their current accomplishments.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
October 20th, 2014 at 3:16:59 PM permalink
" I would not consider Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger great quarterbacks"

That is what happens when a person does not take his meds. LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
October 20th, 2014 at 3:17:15 PM permalink
There's folks like Chad Pennington who couldn't throw the ball more than ten yards... but was amazingly accurate at that range.

I do think total TDs is over rated, and passer rating even more so. BUT, it the total TD passes shows overall a longlevity and importance of that QB to the team. 200 yard, 1TD passers tell you that the team moves the ball on the ground, or is run orientated. Per game it says a bit, but you need to look over the seasons.

I'd suggest Yard Per Attempt per catch and ignore the yard after completion... that's -mostly- on the receiver.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
October 20th, 2014 at 3:18:05 PM permalink
" I wouldn't elect either of those to the Hall of Fame based on their current accomplishments. "

What if he throws 967 TD passes, or 1,542, or is there no number ?
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
Joined: Jan 26, 2012
  • Threads: 195
  • Posts: 7356
October 20th, 2014 at 6:03:55 PM permalink
Manning is easily one of the best and this will never be taken from him.
In the land of the blind, the man with one eye is the care taker.
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
  • Threads: 69
  • Posts: 5598
October 20th, 2014 at 6:06:11 PM permalink
Quote: Buzzard

" I wouldn't elect either of those to the Hall of Fame based on their current accomplishments. "

What if he throws 967 TD passes, or 1,542, or is there no number ?



I may consider it then.
Living longer does not always infer +EV
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
October 20th, 2014 at 9:03:08 PM permalink
No, you would not . You would make some other lame ass excuse. Because your standards and knowledge of the game surpasses those who coach and play it. Obviously you are correct and all other are wrong. Please accept my sincere apology.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet

  • Jump to: