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Wizard
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Wizard
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September 13th, 2014 at 12:25:56 PM permalink
I've been working hard on my new page on betting college football. Please have a look.

As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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September 13th, 2014 at 1:23:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I've been working hard on my new page on betting college football. Please have a look.

As always, I welcome all questions, comments, and especially corrections.



Nothing short of spectacular.
Wizard
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September 13th, 2014 at 1:42:24 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Nothing short of spectacular.



That's what I like to hear!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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September 14th, 2014 at 8:28:47 AM permalink
I must say, I was hoping to get more comments. That page took two weeks to do, off and on.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Rigondeaux
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September 15th, 2014 at 2:31:52 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I must say, I was hoping to get more comments. That page took two weeks to do, off and on.



I just spotted it. Fine work! Thank you for that.

Now to bet the ML on ten point dogs for the rest of the year and become rich.

Do you like 3 in college more for half point parlay cards now? It seems to be as common as 7 in the NFL. As I mentioned in the other thread, I'd imagine that it is even more common when you filter out all of the games that are not competitive. Not all blow outs, but the massive mismatches in non-conference games.
MidwestAP
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September 15th, 2014 at 8:16:37 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I must say, I was hoping to get more comments. That page took two weeks to do, off and on.



Really good reference material in the write up, thank you very much!
cyberbabble
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September 15th, 2014 at 8:58:47 AM permalink
Good stuff.
I am not sure if I understand the margin of victory table.
Margin of victory - 1 number games - 413 percent - 3.35
Is this a count of only when favorites win by 1 or is this all games with a 1 point margin, regardless of whether the fav or dog won?
thecesspit
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September 15th, 2014 at 10:15:05 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I must say, I was hoping to get more comments. That page took two weeks to do, off and on.



it's awesome, but I just don't bet the college football, so isn't useful to me... if I did, it would be, like the NFL version was.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Wizard
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September 15th, 2014 at 10:44:45 AM permalink
Thanks for all the compliments above.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Do you like 3 in college more for half point parlay cards now? It seems to be as common as 7 in the NFL. As I mentioned in the other thread, I'd imagine that it is even more common when you filter out all of the games that are not competitive. Not all blow outs, but the massive mismatches in non-conference games.



Yes, I think that getting a half point off of 3 or 7 in a college game is definitely half-point parlay card worthy.

Quote: cyberbabble

I am not sure if I understand the margin of victory table.
Margin of victory - 1 number games - 413 percent - 3.35
Is this a count of only when favorites win by 1 or is this all games with a 1 point margin, regardless of whether the fav or dog won?



That is saying that 3.35% of games end in a margin of victory of one point, regardless of whether the favorite or dog won.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
cyberbabble
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September 15th, 2014 at 11:04:08 AM permalink
OK, thanks
Ayecarumba
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September 15th, 2014 at 11:35:26 AM permalink
Quote: Betting College Football Page

The data used in this analysis is 12,231 college football games from 1996 to 2013.



Were the games just division 1 teams? Were bowl games included?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
GWAE
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September 15th, 2014 at 1:26:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I must say, I was hoping to get more comments. That page took two weeks to do, off and on.



great page. This also shows why I am horrible at betting.

Some of the bets that have the best EV

Under -0.025836
Home underdog -0.015335

are the ones that I make the least. I love an OVER but obviously I should be betting the under
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
Wizard
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September 16th, 2014 at 9:05:10 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

great page. This also shows why I am horrible at betting.

Some of the bets that have the best EV

Under -0.025836
Home underdog -0.015335

are the ones that I make the least. I love an OVER but obviously I should be betting the under



Thanks. Interestingly, in the NFL home underdogs do about equally as away underdogs. Betting under is better than over in every sport.

I just added more material about teasers in college football. Please have another look. There is an advantage play in there.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
DRich
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September 16th, 2014 at 9:11:12 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks. Interestingly, in the NFL home underdogs do about equally as away underdogs. Betting under is better than over in every sport.

I just added more material about teasers in college football. Please have another look. There is an advantage play in there.



I think in your Teaser section the column labeled "points" should be "teams" or "games".
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
tringlomane
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September 16th, 2014 at 1:18:08 PM permalink
Very thorough! Great job!
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