Johnzimbo
Johnzimbo
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December 21st, 2014 at 6:08:10 AM permalink
Seattle wins by 9, take it to the bank!!! (I hope)
steeldco
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December 21st, 2014 at 8:31:21 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Seattle wins by 9, take it to the bank!!! (I hope)



You would think that Seattle could win by double digits considering the fact that Arizona has Lindley starting.......however,
does a terrible Seattle offensive line reduce Wilson to Lindley type stats, considering that they are playing in Arizona? I think so. Arizona covers.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
Paradigm
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December 21st, 2014 at 9:45:03 AM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Seattle wins by 9, take it to the bank!!! (I hope)


Made it my Confidence Pick for the Week.....good luck John, Wiz needs some pressure :-). I am just hoping to end up over 52.4% for the year so I can say I had a "winning" season against the spread, haha!
Beardgoat
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December 21st, 2014 at 1:39:35 PM permalink
I'm way too lazy to look but I think I've literally lost all of my confidence picks except for 1 or 2. Brutal
beachbumbabs
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December 21st, 2014 at 1:46:15 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

I'm way too lazy to look but I think I've literally lost all of my confidence picks except for 1 or 2. Brutal



I lost every one of mine; big reason I was eliminated by week 8 or 9 (though I withdrew, I suppose there could be a mathematical argument that had I continued I could "theoretically" get back in contention). Wasn't going to happen. Didn't want to kid myself. But those confidence picks were brutal.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Beardgoat
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December 21st, 2014 at 1:50:59 PM permalink
I just checked. 2-7 in confidence picks. Ugh
Wizard
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December 21st, 2014 at 5:02:43 PM permalink
Congratulations to JZ for going 3-0 during the daytime games (vs. my 2-1). That will make the Sea/Ariz game all the more critical.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Johnzimbo
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December 21st, 2014 at 5:44:04 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Congratulations to JZ for going 3-0 during the daytime games (vs. my 2-1). That will make the Sea/Ariz game all the more critical.



I'm not sure I can watch the game...might be too stressful. I'll check the score now and then and keep fingers crossed.
Paradigm
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December 21st, 2014 at 6:48:27 PM permalink
C.......HAWKS!!!!

And then if my math is right, and it rarely is, John actually wants the Broncos not to cover so both he and Wiz lose that one. I have the spread narrowing to 4% exactly under that scenario and being 4.2% if the Broncos cover.
Wizard
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December 21st, 2014 at 6:55:48 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

I'm not sure I can watch the game...might be too stressful. I'll check the score now and then and keep fingers crossed.



14-3 in the second quarter. I think it is safe for you to watch. I'm going to quit watching.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Wizard
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December 21st, 2014 at 8:30:10 PM permalink
Well, I'm just disgusted with the Cards but congratulate JZ on another outstanding week. It will indeed come down to week 17.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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December 22nd, 2014 at 12:32:45 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

C.......HAWKS!!!!

And then if my math is right, and it rarely is, John actually wants the Broncos not to cover so both he and Wiz lose that one. I have the spread narrowing to 4% exactly under that scenario and being 4.2% if the Broncos cover.



It looks like the current Standings would be:

Wizard: 53-21 = .716

JohnZimbo: 58-28 = .674

If the Broncos win we go to:

Wizard: 54-21 = .720

JohnZimbo: 59-28 = .678


If the Broncos lose:

Wizard: 53-22 = .707

JohnZimbo: 58-29 = .667

It's true that the percentage spread is narrower in the latter situation, but I'm not sure if that matters. Let's check winning conditions for JohnZimbo under either situation:

Broncos Win

Week 17: John Zimbo: 6-0 = .699---5-1 = .688---4-2 = .677---3-3 = .667

Week 17: Wizard: 0-5 = .675--- 1-4 = .6875---2-3 = .700

It looks like it probably would matter. In this scenario, if Wizard picks 2/5 games correctly, it doesn't matter what JohnZimbo does. Otherwise, JohnZimbo at 6-0/5-1 beats Wizard at 0-5/1-4 and JohnZimbo at 4-2 beats Wizard at 0-5. Two shared Picks would also end it immediately, unless one shared pick won, the other lost, and JohnZimbo otherwise swept while Wizard whiffed.

Broncos Lose

Week 17: JohnZimbo: 6-0 = .688---5-1 = .677---4-2 = .667---3-3 = .655

Week 17 Wizard: 0-5 = .663---1-4 = .675---2-3 = .6875---3-2 = .700

In this scenario, we see that if Wizard picks 2/5 correctly, a 6-0 JohnZimbo would win, so that scenario again becomes relevant. In the case of the Broncos losing tomorrow, Wizard would have to go 3-2 the last week to render whatever JohnZimbo does meaningless.

Conclusion

It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow night! I don't know if there's been any other situation where someone had to pull for one of his Picks to Lose!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Wizard
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December 22nd, 2014 at 7:07:26 AM permalink
Thanks for the analysis, Mission. Go Broncos!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
mickeycrimm
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December 22nd, 2014 at 7:11:20 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Well, I'm just disgusted with the Cards but congratulate JZ on another outstanding week. It will indeed come down to week 17.



I think Lindley's performance as quarterback was the worst I've ever seen in the NFL. I felt bad for his parents sitting in the stands.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
Wizard
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December 22nd, 2014 at 7:24:25 PM permalink
If we assumed each pick had a 50% chance of winning and each pick was independent, then I show JZ would have a 4.6% chance of winning. It gets more complicated with the possibility of picking the same and opposite sides but I am not going to muddy the waters with that.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Johnzimbo
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December 22nd, 2014 at 7:39:34 PM permalink
Except that I am ON FIRE and plan to go 6-0 next week :)
Mission146
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December 22nd, 2014 at 7:52:16 PM permalink
Quote: Johnzimbo

Except that I am ON FIRE and plan to go 6-0 next week :)



Listen, when you're done with that time machine you're using to make these Picks, do you think I can borrow it to see who next year's SB winner is to get an early futures bet out there?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Johnzimbo
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December 22nd, 2014 at 8:08:17 PM permalink
When you say next year....hehe. Sure, I'll let you know when I am done with it.
EdCollins
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December 22nd, 2014 at 8:51:57 PM permalink
Week 16 Results:

5-1: Paradigm, Johnzimbo
4-1: Sodawater
4-2: Steeldco, Mission146, Genwyzgy
3-2: KMUMF, Aluisio
3-3: TGarrettCPA, RDW4POTUS, Miplet, EdCollins, 10Dollarbri
2-3: Wizard, MWalz9, JML24
2-4: YouCanBetOnThat, Wudged
1-4: JW17
1-5: Terapined, Beardgoat, AyeCarumba
0-6: Ten2Win

Regular Picks: 51-48
Confidence Picks: 5-11


Current Standings:

Name Wins Losses % Owes
Wizard 53 22 70.67%-
JohnZimbo 58 29 66.67%$4.00
VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) 16 8 66.67%$4.00
Buzzard (out - withdrew) 14 10 58.33%$12.33
Steeldco 48 36 57.14%$13.52
Wudged 54 41 56.84%$13.82
Paradigm 46 36 56.10%$14.57
EdCollins 45 36 55.56%$15.11
MWalz9 44 38 53.66%$17.01
YouCanBetOnThat 42 37 53.16%$17.50
RDW4Potus 38 36 51.35%$19.32
Aluisio 44 42 51.16%$19.50
Terapined 38 37 50.67%$20.00
10DollarBri 44 43 50.57%$20.09
StrictlyAP 45 44 50.56%$20.10
JW17 40 42 48.78%$21.89
Miplet 40 42 48.78%$21.89
Genwyzgy 40 43 48.19%$22.47
Mission146 37 40 48.05%$25.00
SodaWater 42 47 47.19%$23.48
KMUMF 36 41 46.75%$23.91
TGarrettCPA 38 44 46.34%$24.33
Ten2Win 38 46 45.24%$25.43
AyeCarumba 38 47 44.71%$25.96
Malaru (out - 3 byes) 17 22 43.59%$25.00
Beardgoat 36 48 42.86%$27.81
JML24 34 46 42.50%$28.17
Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) 15 24 38.46%$25.00
BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) 17 29 36.96%$25.00
GWAE (out - withdrew) 13 27 32.50%$25.00
Totals 1,110 1,083 50.62%$581.21
EdCollins
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December 22nd, 2014 at 8:53:05 PM permalink
Note that NEXT week, Week 17, I won't be able to grade and post the results until very LATE Sunday. Sorry. (I'm working that evening.)
EdCollins
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December 22nd, 2014 at 8:56:00 PM permalink
Oh yea, and Johnzimbo is now 24-3 over the past five weeks. Nice work.
Mission146
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December 22nd, 2014 at 8:59:09 PM permalink
Cool!

Week 17 is championship week, so just as a reminder, here is the scenario:

Current Standings:

Wizard: 53-22 = .707

JohnZimbo: 58-29 = .667

Here are the winning conditions:

Week 17: JohnZimbo: 6-0 = .688---5-1 = .677---4-2 = .667---3-3 = .655

Week 17 Wizard: 0-5 = .663---1-4 = .675---2-3 = .6875---3-2 = .700

In this scenario, we see that if Wizard picks 2/5 correctly, a 6-0 JohnZimbo would win. Wizard would have to go 3-2 the last week to render whatever JohnZimbo does meaningless.

JohnZimbo at 6-0 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4, 2-3

John Zimbo at 5-1 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4

JohnZimbo at 4-2 beats Wizard at 0-5

There are a number of possibilities that could involve No Decisions, but I'm not getting into that unless it becomes relevant.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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December 22nd, 2014 at 9:02:08 PM permalink
Mission, thanks again for hosting, and thanks to everyone else for playing. It made the weekend games a bit more exciting for me, than they otherwise would have been.

I'm glad I was able to do much better than the DISASTROUS result I had last year. :)
Mission146
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December 22nd, 2014 at 9:06:17 PM permalink
Thanks again for posting the results and for putting together the awesome program to make that an easy process!

I also want to thank everyone for playing again this year and encourage everyone to do the same next year. I also plan to start advertising it a bit earlier the next time around so we can eclipse the participation from last year.

The other change we are going to see next year is that I will be MATCHING the sum of $25.00 that I offer to the winner with another $25 to whoever comes in last place to encourage participants to play out the entire season. I shall also offer a prize of, "Most average," which will be that I will pay the loss of the player who comes closest to .500 for them.

Obviously, I will be defending these three prizes, but still cannot win the game overall. (Like I have a chance anyway!)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
beachbumbabs
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December 23rd, 2014 at 1:09:06 AM permalink
Those middle/end prizes sound like fun, Mission! I've missed competing.

Nice that you have a contest up to the end.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Beardgoat
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December 23rd, 2014 at 7:11:41 AM permalink
My picks have been brutal all year but I kept making picks In the spirit of the game. I don't think an opt out should be available next year
beachbumbabs
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December 23rd, 2014 at 2:15:08 PM permalink
Quote: Beardgoat

My picks have been brutal all year but I kept making picks In the spirit of the game. I don't think an opt out should be available next year



I sort of agree with you, Beardgoat. It hadn't occurred to me to do it until it got mentioned in this thread that you could. And it would be more fun to see it through. But what kind of AP-hag would I be if I didn't take advantage of the rules offered? :) I'm still owing somebody $25 next week, so it's not like there's no penalty.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
teddys
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December 24th, 2014 at 1:38:16 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Cool!

Week 17 is championship week, so just as a reminder, here is the scenario:

Current Standings:

Wizard: 53-22 = .707

JohnZimbo: 58-29 = .667

Here are the winning conditions:

Week 17: JohnZimbo: 6-0 = .688---5-1 = .677---4-2 = .667---3-3 = .655

Week 17 Wizard: 0-5 = .663---1-4 = .675---2-3 = .6875---3-2 = .700

In this scenario, we see that if Wizard picks 2/5 correctly, a 6-0 JohnZimbo would win. Wizard would have to go 3-2 the last week to render whatever JohnZimbo does meaningless.

JohnZimbo at 6-0 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4, 2-3

John Zimbo at 5-1 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4

JohnZimbo at 4-2 beats Wizard at 0-5

There are a number of possibilities that could involve No Decisions, but I'm not getting into that unless it becomes relevant.

Fun. I wonder what the Wizard is going to be paying more attention to, this or his parlay card. I'm betting this :)
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
Johnzimbo
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December 24th, 2014 at 5:50:51 AM permalink
I already have another 6-0 week scoped out, so the wizard is quaking in his boots...or on his unicycle
Paradigm
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December 24th, 2014 at 12:19:04 PM permalink
The good news is that it is going to be a battle to the end which was not looking too likely 3 weeks ago.

Good Luck to Wiz & Johnzimbo and may the best handicapper win :-)!
Mission146
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December 25th, 2014 at 8:20:39 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 17 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post419497
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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December 27th, 2014 at 10:00:50 PM permalink
Greetings!

The Week 17 Picks have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/#post419948

Time for a little shameless self-promotion, please read the intro, I put about thirty minutes into that (well, ten if you take out researching last year's game and that of the year before).
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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December 27th, 2014 at 10:05:42 PM permalink
Note that my program detected an invalid pick from 10DollarBri. He has the Cowboys UNDER as well as the Redskins OVER.
Johnzimbo
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December 28th, 2014 at 7:26:31 AM permalink
I figured the wizard would outfox me by making some unpredictable picks (bastard!). I don't really like my picks, was just trying to anticipate his and go contrarian, but he is too wise. I'll have to collect my beer when I am in Vegas it appears.
10DollarBri
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:09:29 AM permalink
oops. I meant 49rs over if its not too late.
I know nothing!
EdCollins
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:15:34 AM permalink
Quote: 10DollarBri

oops. I meant 49rs over if its not too late.


I would allow it (based upon your standings), but it's up to Mission.

If Johnzimbo, for example, made an error, based upon HIS standings, (relative to that of the Wizards) that error could NOT be corrected.

For the moment, I will temporarily change that Redskins over pick to 49ers over. We'll see what he says. Maybe he's still in a Christmas mood. :)
10DollarBri
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:28:57 AM permalink
I hope he is. My goal now is to owe less than 20 dollars :-)
I know nothing!
Wizard
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:35:34 AM permalink
Quote:

As we can see, Wizard (I say wisely) thought that JohnZimbo might go for O/U's in an attempt to avoid duplicate picks given that Wizard does not pick O/U's, so Wizard was going for the potential of a few duplicate Picks, here. It turns out, however, that JohnZimbo only went with one O/U, and it is not a shared pick, or even a shared game. As we saw before, the winning conditions are:



The above quote is from this post, in the official thread, but I'll respond here in the "chit chat" thread.

That wasn't my strategy. I was worried that JZ would swing me by predicting my picks and then doing the opposite. This is classic, and correct, tournament strategy when behind. Had this not been a factor, these would have been my picks:

Bal -10
Car +4
SD +3
Phil +3
Wash +5.5

JZ is on the opposite side on two of these (Car vs. Atl and SD vs KC), with a confidence pick on one of them, Atlanta. So, I'm glad I did what I did.

In my three seasons of this contest, as far as I know, I've never picked an over/under and knew that JZ picked them about one game per week. So I figured my chances of being swung were less on the over/unders.

The only thing I don't like is I'm polluting my record with pretty much coin flip picks, but the goal is to win the contest, not to maximize the record.

I think it is phony when competitors wish each other "good luck," but will say that I'm enjoying this coming down to the last week and extend my virtual hand in the spirit of competitiveness to JZ and wish only for his best game. I'd like to suggest that whoever wins will owe the loser a beer.

Whoever wins, I'd like to thank Mission and Ed for their time to run the contest and manage the scoring.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Mission146
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:48:43 AM permalink
Wizard,

You're welcome!

All,

The change to the 10Dollarbri Pick is perfectly fine. I've even got a late set of Picks in my Inbox, after the Picks were posted, that I'm going to let play because they have no affect on who wins.

I haven't added them in, yet, because I'm on my phone.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
EdCollins
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:57:44 AM permalink
You're welcome also. It's not a problem. Glad I can help. Note that it's not much work at all this year. (LAST year it was a bit more work, when I wrote the grading program. By comparison, this year it's been very easy.)

Again, I won't be able to post the final results until late tonight... I have to work this evening.

Enjoy the games, everyone. To everyone but the Wizard, good luck with your picks. :)
EdCollins
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December 28th, 2014 at 4:03:12 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Wizard,

You're welcome!

All,

The change to the 10Dollarbri Pick is perfectly fine. I've even got a late set of Picks in my Inbox, after the Picks were posted, that I'm going to let play because they have no affect on who wins.

I haven't added them in, yet, because I'm on my phone.


Try to add the late picks before 9:00 pm, Pacific Coast Time. (That's when I expect to be off work.) Thanks.
Mission146
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December 28th, 2014 at 4:37:09 PM permalink
Genwyzgy

GB -7
NYG -3
STL +12.5
SF -6 Confidence
CHI OVER 44
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Paradigm
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December 28th, 2014 at 4:42:59 PM permalink
Do I have this right....JZ is 5-0 & Wiz is 2-2 going into the Pitt/Cincy game and they both have picks on the game? We are going to have a nail biter on Sunday night of Week 17!!
Mission146
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December 28th, 2014 at 5:06:07 PM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

Do I have this right....JZ is 5-0 & Wiz is 2-2 going into the Pitt/Cincy game and they both have picks on the game? We are going to have a nail biter on Sunday night of Week 17!!



Unfortunately not, JZ lost with Atl -4 on a CP and Wizard has two wins, JZ is 3-2, so it's over.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
10DollarBri
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December 28th, 2014 at 5:45:51 PM permalink
Congratulations Wizard but I'll owe you a $1.25 less if you lose tonight so c'mon high score!
I know nothing!
miplet
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December 28th, 2014 at 7:20:51 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Had this not been a factor, these would have been my picks:

Bal -10
Car +4
SD +3
Phil +3
Wash +5.5



Wow those were my picks. They didn't do to good.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
EdCollins
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December 28th, 2014 at 8:57:36 PM permalink
Week 17 Results:
(These results include the late picks from Genwyzgy, the corrected pick from 100DollarBri, and fixes the mistake Babs found when I posted these results initially.)

4-1: Terapined
3-2: Mission146
4-2: Paradigm, JW17, JohnZimbo
3-2: Wudged, Wizard, JML24, Aluisio
2-2: Miplet
3-3: Beardgoat
2-3: TGarrettCPA, Sodawater, KMUMF, 10DollarBri
2-4: AyeCarumba
1-3: YouCanBetOnThat
1-4: EdCollins
1-5: Ten2Win, Steeldco, Genwyzgy

Regular Picks: 45-43
Confidence Picks: 3-8


FINAL Results:

Name Wins Losses % Owes
Wizard 56 24 70.00%-
JohnZimbo 62 31 66.67%$3.33
VCUSkyhawk (out early via 3 byes) 16 8 66.67%$3.33
Buzzard (withdrew early) 14 10 58.33%$11.67
Wudged 57 43 57.00%$13.00
Paradigm 50 38 56.82%$13.18
Steeldco 49 41 54.44%$15.56
MWalz9 44 38 53.66%$16.34
EdCollins 46 40 53.49%$16.51
Terapined 42 38 52.50%$17.50
YouCanBetOnThat 43 40 51.81%$18.19
Aluisio 47 44 51.65%$18.35
RDW4Potus 38 36 51.35%$18.65
StrictlyAP 45 44 50.56%$19.44
10DollarBri 46 46 50.00%$20.00
JW17 44 44 50.00%$20.00
Mission146 40 41 49.38%$25.00
Miplet 42 44 48.84%$21.16
SodaWater 44 50 46.81%$23.19
KMUMF 38 44 46.34%$23.66
Genwyzgy 41 48 46.07%$23.93
TGarrettCPA 40 47 45.98%$24.02
AyeCarumba 40 51 43.96%$26.04
Malaru (out early via 3 byes) 17 22 43.59%$25.00
JML24 37 48 43.53%$26.47
Beardgoat 39 51 43.33%$26.67
Ten2Win 39 51 43.33%$26.67
Vendman1 (out early via 3 byes) 15 24 38.46%$25.00
BeachBumBabs (withdrew early) 17 29 36.96%$25.00
GWAE (withdrew early) 13 27 32.50%$25.00
Totals 1,161 1,142 50.41%$571.87



Please look over the results and my apologies in advance if I made an error. (But my track record this season has been okay so far.)

Thanks again to Mission for hosting and thanks again to everyone who participated and... Congrats to the Wizard!! 70.00%! Excellent!
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
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December 28th, 2014 at 9:00:34 PM permalink
Ed,

You list the Wizard at 1-5, but above that Mission say's he's already won 2 games; I'm not sure who's right, but I did notice the Wizard won the 1 early game he bet under.

Thanks to both you and Mission for running the show! I think, next year, I will plan to not withdraw.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
EdCollins
EdCollins
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Joined: Oct 21, 2011
December 28th, 2014 at 9:26:37 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Ed,

You list the Wizard at 1-5, but above that Mission say's he's already won 2 games; I'm not sure who's right, but I did notice the Wizard won the 1 early game he bet under.

Thanks to both you and Mission for running the show! I think, next year, I will plan to not withdraw.


Good work. I see the error. (Calculator didn't recognize "U" as "Under". I think it needs the full word.)

Will correct right now. Give me a few...

Edit: DONE

Thanks.
wudged
wudged
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Joined: Aug 7, 2013
December 29th, 2014 at 7:19:49 AM permalink
Is there a PayPal address or how does Wizard want payment?
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