Quote: JohnzimboSeattle wins by 9, take it to the bank!!! (I hope)
You would think that Seattle could win by double digits considering the fact that Arizona has Lindley starting.......however,
does a terrible Seattle offensive line reduce Wilson to Lindley type stats, considering that they are playing in Arizona? I think so. Arizona covers.
Quote: JohnzimboSeattle wins by 9, take it to the bank!!! (I hope)
Made it my Confidence Pick for the Week.....good luck John, Wiz needs some pressure :-). I am just hoping to end up over 52.4% for the year so I can say I had a "winning" season against the spread, haha!
Quote: BeardgoatI'm way too lazy to look but I think I've literally lost all of my confidence picks except for 1 or 2. Brutal
I lost every one of mine; big reason I was eliminated by week 8 or 9 (though I withdrew, I suppose there could be a mathematical argument that had I continued I could "theoretically" get back in contention). Wasn't going to happen. Didn't want to kid myself. But those confidence picks were brutal.
Quote: WizardCongratulations to JZ for going 3-0 during the daytime games (vs. my 2-1). That will make the Sea/Ariz game all the more critical.
I'm not sure I can watch the game...might be too stressful. I'll check the score now and then and keep fingers crossed.
And then if my math is right, and it rarely is, John actually wants the Broncos not to cover so both he and Wiz lose that one. I have the spread narrowing to 4% exactly under that scenario and being 4.2% if the Broncos cover.
Quote: JohnzimboI'm not sure I can watch the game...might be too stressful. I'll check the score now and then and keep fingers crossed.
14-3 in the second quarter. I think it is safe for you to watch. I'm going to quit watching.
Quote: ParadigmC.......HAWKS!!!!
And then if my math is right, and it rarely is, John actually wants the Broncos not to cover so both he and Wiz lose that one. I have the spread narrowing to 4% exactly under that scenario and being 4.2% if the Broncos cover.
It looks like the current Standings would be:
Wizard: 53-21 = .716
JohnZimbo: 58-28 = .674
If the Broncos win we go to:
Wizard: 54-21 = .720
JohnZimbo: 59-28 = .678
If the Broncos lose:
Wizard: 53-22 = .707
JohnZimbo: 58-29 = .667
It's true that the percentage spread is narrower in the latter situation, but I'm not sure if that matters. Let's check winning conditions for JohnZimbo under either situation:
Broncos Win
Week 17: John Zimbo: 6-0 = .699---5-1 = .688---4-2 = .677---3-3 = .667
Week 17: Wizard: 0-5 = .675--- 1-4 = .6875---2-3 = .700
It looks like it probably would matter. In this scenario, if Wizard picks 2/5 games correctly, it doesn't matter what JohnZimbo does. Otherwise, JohnZimbo at 6-0/5-1 beats Wizard at 0-5/1-4 and JohnZimbo at 4-2 beats Wizard at 0-5. Two shared Picks would also end it immediately, unless one shared pick won, the other lost, and JohnZimbo otherwise swept while Wizard whiffed.
Broncos Lose
Week 17: JohnZimbo: 6-0 = .688---5-1 = .677---4-2 = .667---3-3 = .655
Week 17 Wizard: 0-5 = .663---1-4 = .675---2-3 = .6875---3-2 = .700
In this scenario, we see that if Wizard picks 2/5 correctly, a 6-0 JohnZimbo would win, so that scenario again becomes relevant. In the case of the Broncos losing tomorrow, Wizard would have to go 3-2 the last week to render whatever JohnZimbo does meaningless.
Conclusion
It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow night! I don't know if there's been any other situation where someone had to pull for one of his Picks to Lose!
Quote: WizardWell, I'm just disgusted with the Cards but congratulate JZ on another outstanding week. It will indeed come down to week 17.
I think Lindley's performance as quarterback was the worst I've ever seen in the NFL. I felt bad for his parents sitting in the stands.
Quote: JohnzimboExcept that I am ON FIRE and plan to go 6-0 next week :)
Listen, when you're done with that time machine you're using to make these Picks, do you think I can borrow it to see who next year's SB winner is to get an early futures bet out there?
5-1: Paradigm, Johnzimbo
4-1: Sodawater
4-2: Steeldco, Mission146, Genwyzgy
3-2: KMUMF, Aluisio
3-3: TGarrettCPA, RDW4POTUS, Miplet, EdCollins, 10Dollarbri
2-3: Wizard, MWalz9, JML24
2-4: YouCanBetOnThat, Wudged
1-4: JW17
1-5: Terapined, Beardgoat, AyeCarumba
0-6: Ten2Win
Regular Picks: 51-48
Confidence Picks: 5-11
Current Standings:
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wizard | 53 | 22 | 70.67% | - |
JohnZimbo | 58 | 29 | 66.67% | $4.00 |
VCUSkyhawk (out - 3 byes) | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | $4.00 |
Buzzard (out - withdrew) | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $12.33 |
Steeldco | 48 | 36 | 57.14% | $13.52 |
Wudged | 54 | 41 | 56.84% | $13.82 |
Paradigm | 46 | 36 | 56.10% | $14.57 |
EdCollins | 45 | 36 | 55.56% | $15.11 |
MWalz9 | 44 | 38 | 53.66% | $17.01 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 42 | 37 | 53.16% | $17.50 |
RDW4Potus | 38 | 36 | 51.35% | $19.32 |
Aluisio | 44 | 42 | 51.16% | $19.50 |
Terapined | 38 | 37 | 50.67% | $20.00 |
10DollarBri | 44 | 43 | 50.57% | $20.09 |
StrictlyAP | 45 | 44 | 50.56% | $20.10 |
JW17 | 40 | 42 | 48.78% | $21.89 |
Miplet | 40 | 42 | 48.78% | $21.89 |
Genwyzgy | 40 | 43 | 48.19% | $22.47 |
Mission146 | 37 | 40 | 48.05% | $25.00 |
SodaWater | 42 | 47 | 47.19% | $23.48 |
KMUMF | 36 | 41 | 46.75% | $23.91 |
TGarrettCPA | 38 | 44 | 46.34% | $24.33 |
Ten2Win | 38 | 46 | 45.24% | $25.43 |
AyeCarumba | 38 | 47 | 44.71% | $25.96 |
Malaru (out - 3 byes) | 17 | 22 | 43.59% | $25.00 |
Beardgoat | 36 | 48 | 42.86% | $27.81 |
JML24 | 34 | 46 | 42.50% | $28.17 |
Vendman1 (out - 3 byes) | 15 | 24 | 38.46% | $25.00 |
BeachBumBabs (out - withdrew) | 17 | 29 | 36.96% | $25.00 |
GWAE (out - withdrew) | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $25.00 |
Totals | 1,110 | 1,083 | 50.62% | $581.21 |
Week 17 is championship week, so just as a reminder, here is the scenario:
Current Standings:
Wizard: 53-22 = .707
JohnZimbo: 58-29 = .667
Here are the winning conditions:
Week 17: JohnZimbo: 6-0 = .688---5-1 = .677---4-2 = .667---3-3 = .655
Week 17 Wizard: 0-5 = .663---1-4 = .675---2-3 = .6875---3-2 = .700
In this scenario, we see that if Wizard picks 2/5 correctly, a 6-0 JohnZimbo would win. Wizard would have to go 3-2 the last week to render whatever JohnZimbo does meaningless.
JohnZimbo at 6-0 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4, 2-3
John Zimbo at 5-1 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4
JohnZimbo at 4-2 beats Wizard at 0-5
There are a number of possibilities that could involve No Decisions, but I'm not getting into that unless it becomes relevant.
I'm glad I was able to do much better than the DISASTROUS result I had last year. :)
I also want to thank everyone for playing again this year and encourage everyone to do the same next year. I also plan to start advertising it a bit earlier the next time around so we can eclipse the participation from last year.
The other change we are going to see next year is that I will be MATCHING the sum of $25.00 that I offer to the winner with another $25 to whoever comes in last place to encourage participants to play out the entire season. I shall also offer a prize of, "Most average," which will be that I will pay the loss of the player who comes closest to .500 for them.
Obviously, I will be defending these three prizes, but still cannot win the game overall. (Like I have a chance anyway!)
Nice that you have a contest up to the end.
Quote: BeardgoatMy picks have been brutal all year but I kept making picks In the spirit of the game. I don't think an opt out should be available next year
I sort of agree with you, Beardgoat. It hadn't occurred to me to do it until it got mentioned in this thread that you could. And it would be more fun to see it through. But what kind of AP-hag would I be if I didn't take advantage of the rules offered? :) I'm still owing somebody $25 next week, so it's not like there's no penalty.
Fun. I wonder what the Wizard is going to be paying more attention to, this or his parlay card. I'm betting this :)Quote: Mission146Cool!
Week 17 is championship week, so just as a reminder, here is the scenario:
Current Standings:
Wizard: 53-22 = .707
JohnZimbo: 58-29 = .667
Here are the winning conditions:
Week 17: JohnZimbo: 6-0 = .688---5-1 = .677---4-2 = .667---3-3 = .655
Week 17 Wizard: 0-5 = .663---1-4 = .675---2-3 = .6875---3-2 = .700
In this scenario, we see that if Wizard picks 2/5 correctly, a 6-0 JohnZimbo would win. Wizard would have to go 3-2 the last week to render whatever JohnZimbo does meaningless.
JohnZimbo at 6-0 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4, 2-3
John Zimbo at 5-1 beats Wizard at 0-5, 1-4
JohnZimbo at 4-2 beats Wizard at 0-5
There are a number of possibilities that could involve No Decisions, but I'm not getting into that unless it becomes relevant.
Good Luck to Wiz & Johnzimbo and may the best handicapper win :-)!
The Week 17 Lines have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/4/#post419497
The Week 17 Picks have been posted:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/19451-wov-picks-game-2014-official-thread/#post419948
Time for a little shameless self-promotion, please read the intro, I put about thirty minutes into that (well, ten if you take out researching last year's game and that of the year before).
Quote: 10DollarBrioops. I meant 49rs over if its not too late.
I would allow it (based upon your standings), but it's up to Mission.
If Johnzimbo, for example, made an error, based upon HIS standings, (relative to that of the Wizards) that error could NOT be corrected.
For the moment, I will temporarily change that Redskins over pick to 49ers over. We'll see what he says. Maybe he's still in a Christmas mood. :)
Quote:As we can see, Wizard (I say wisely) thought that JohnZimbo might go for O/U's in an attempt to avoid duplicate picks given that Wizard does not pick O/U's, so Wizard was going for the potential of a few duplicate Picks, here. It turns out, however, that JohnZimbo only went with one O/U, and it is not a shared pick, or even a shared game. As we saw before, the winning conditions are:
The above quote is from this post, in the official thread, but I'll respond here in the "chit chat" thread.
That wasn't my strategy. I was worried that JZ would swing me by predicting my picks and then doing the opposite. This is classic, and correct, tournament strategy when behind. Had this not been a factor, these would have been my picks:
Bal -10
Car +4
SD +3
Phil +3
Wash +5.5
JZ is on the opposite side on two of these (Car vs. Atl and SD vs KC), with a confidence pick on one of them, Atlanta. So, I'm glad I did what I did.
In my three seasons of this contest, as far as I know, I've never picked an over/under and knew that JZ picked them about one game per week. So I figured my chances of being swung were less on the over/unders.
The only thing I don't like is I'm polluting my record with pretty much coin flip picks, but the goal is to win the contest, not to maximize the record.
I think it is phony when competitors wish each other "good luck," but will say that I'm enjoying this coming down to the last week and extend my virtual hand in the spirit of competitiveness to JZ and wish only for his best game. I'd like to suggest that whoever wins will owe the loser a beer.
Whoever wins, I'd like to thank Mission and Ed for their time to run the contest and manage the scoring.
You're welcome!
All,
The change to the 10Dollarbri Pick is perfectly fine. I've even got a late set of Picks in my Inbox, after the Picks were posted, that I'm going to let play because they have no affect on who wins.
I haven't added them in, yet, because I'm on my phone.
Again, I won't be able to post the final results until late tonight... I have to work this evening.
Enjoy the games, everyone. To everyone but the Wizard, good luck with your picks. :)
Quote: Mission146Wizard,
You're welcome!
All,
The change to the 10Dollarbri Pick is perfectly fine. I've even got a late set of Picks in my Inbox, after the Picks were posted, that I'm going to let play because they have no affect on who wins.
I haven't added them in, yet, because I'm on my phone.
Try to add the late picks before 9:00 pm, Pacific Coast Time. (That's when I expect to be off work.) Thanks.
GB -7
NYG -3
STL +12.5
SF -6 Confidence
CHI OVER 44
Quote: ParadigmDo I have this right....JZ is 5-0 & Wiz is 2-2 going into the Pitt/Cincy game and they both have picks on the game? We are going to have a nail biter on Sunday night of Week 17!!
Unfortunately not, JZ lost with Atl -4 on a CP and Wizard has two wins, JZ is 3-2, so it's over.
Quote: WizardHad this not been a factor, these would have been my picks:
Bal -10
Car +4
SD +3
Phil +3
Wash +5.5
Wow those were my picks. They didn't do to good.
(These results include the late picks from Genwyzgy, the corrected pick from 100DollarBri, and fixes the mistake Babs found when I posted these results initially.)
4-1: Terapined
3-2: Mission146
4-2: Paradigm, JW17, JohnZimbo
3-2: Wudged, Wizard, JML24, Aluisio
2-2: Miplet
3-3: Beardgoat
2-3: TGarrettCPA, Sodawater, KMUMF, 10DollarBri
2-4: AyeCarumba
1-3: YouCanBetOnThat
1-4: EdCollins
1-5: Ten2Win, Steeldco, Genwyzgy
Regular Picks: 45-43
Confidence Picks: 3-8
FINAL Results:
Name | Wins | Losses | % | Owes |
---|---|---|---|---|
Wizard | 56 | 24 | 70.00% | - |
JohnZimbo | 62 | 31 | 66.67% | $3.33 |
VCUSkyhawk (out early via 3 byes) | 16 | 8 | 66.67% | $3.33 |
Buzzard (withdrew early) | 14 | 10 | 58.33% | $11.67 |
Wudged | 57 | 43 | 57.00% | $13.00 |
Paradigm | 50 | 38 | 56.82% | $13.18 |
Steeldco | 49 | 41 | 54.44% | $15.56 |
MWalz9 | 44 | 38 | 53.66% | $16.34 |
EdCollins | 46 | 40 | 53.49% | $16.51 |
Terapined | 42 | 38 | 52.50% | $17.50 |
YouCanBetOnThat | 43 | 40 | 51.81% | $18.19 |
Aluisio | 47 | 44 | 51.65% | $18.35 |
RDW4Potus | 38 | 36 | 51.35% | $18.65 |
StrictlyAP | 45 | 44 | 50.56% | $19.44 |
10DollarBri | 46 | 46 | 50.00% | $20.00 |
JW17 | 44 | 44 | 50.00% | $20.00 |
Mission146 | 40 | 41 | 49.38% | $25.00 |
Miplet | 42 | 44 | 48.84% | $21.16 |
SodaWater | 44 | 50 | 46.81% | $23.19 |
KMUMF | 38 | 44 | 46.34% | $23.66 |
Genwyzgy | 41 | 48 | 46.07% | $23.93 |
TGarrettCPA | 40 | 47 | 45.98% | $24.02 |
AyeCarumba | 40 | 51 | 43.96% | $26.04 |
Malaru (out early via 3 byes) | 17 | 22 | 43.59% | $25.00 |
JML24 | 37 | 48 | 43.53% | $26.47 |
Beardgoat | 39 | 51 | 43.33% | $26.67 |
Ten2Win | 39 | 51 | 43.33% | $26.67 |
Vendman1 (out early via 3 byes) | 15 | 24 | 38.46% | $25.00 |
BeachBumBabs (withdrew early) | 17 | 29 | 36.96% | $25.00 |
GWAE (withdrew early) | 13 | 27 | 32.50% | $25.00 |
Totals | 1,161 | 1,142 | 50.41% | $571.87 |
Please look over the results and my apologies in advance if I made an error. (But my track record this season has been okay so far.)
Thanks again to Mission for hosting and thanks again to everyone who participated and... Congrats to the Wizard!! 70.00%! Excellent!
You list the Wizard at 1-5, but above that Mission say's he's already won 2 games; I'm not sure who's right, but I did notice the Wizard won the 1 early game he bet under.
Thanks to both you and Mission for running the show! I think, next year, I will plan to not withdraw.
Quote: beachbumbabsEd,
You list the Wizard at 1-5, but above that Mission say's he's already won 2 games; I'm not sure who's right, but I did notice the Wizard won the 1 early game he bet under.
Thanks to both you and Mission for running the show! I think, next year, I will plan to not withdraw.
Good work. I see the error. (Calculator didn't recognize "U" as "Under". I think it needs the full word.)
Will correct right now. Give me a few...
Edit: DONE
Thanks.