Breeders' Cup 2014

Quote: Johnzimbo

Palace Malice was retired today :(

And I quickly put $50 on Shared Belief to win the Classic.

If I thought I'd identified a clearly superior horse with rare truly dominant talent ideally suited to the specific task that I knew for a fact was being pointed for the event, I wouldn't choose to consider anything at a price shorter than about 5/1 or 6/1 in a future book wager at this point.

I agree that the epic safety pin story always seemed pretty lame as post-race excuses go. But the actual content of that trainer's story doesn't matter much to me; it is equally useful as a reminder of the risk premium necessary in estimating probabilities involving living breathing emotional and constantly changing animals, both horse & human, with incomplete information, whether it involves a safety pin, a developing illness, or the trainer or rider forked it up, or the colt gets worked up over some drunk lady's hat or fixated on a pigeon fluttering on the rail. For me, room for "stuff happens" needs to be priced in.

4/1 is short, but I think he'll go off at 5/2 at the race. I think the premium price I'm getting is worth the added risk. But I respect others who disagree.

I'm a little surprised to hear you got 4/1. You wouldn't have got that locally. He was at 3/1-ish from multiple Las Vegas books last weekend, and has moved down to +200 from William Hill right now. I agree that something in the neighborhood of 5/2 or even lower on the tote board at post time is quite possible, provided that no significant hiccups come between him and his date with the gate at post-time on 11/1.

Some other lines have of course moved down, while inexplicably to me Itsmyluckyday has drifted up a bit to 10/1 since the Palace Malice news.

I could care less about big races. I never went to the Preakness until after they let all those drunken hotties into the infield. In prior years, I just parked cars on people's lawns at $5 or 10 a pop. Lawns of people who were not home.

Now waiting for this 2 year old filly, first time starter MSW, to come back excites me. Well, a winning ticket will, I hope.

CONSUMER CREDIT tracked the front runners towards the inside, was forced to be kept on the hold for
most of the way from the five-sixteenths pole to the top of the lane, caught behind rivals, eased off the rail, got caught in another traffic jam starting about a
sixteenth down the road, had the pilot take hold momentarily responding to being in close proximity to ALL IN FUN in midstretch, gained some but not
optimal racing clearance late, crossed the finish line not having been given her cue.

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/20140905/7/

Not one of Javier Castellano's (Eclipse Award Outstanding Jockey - 2013) best rides, but that is horse racing. At least he gave up, and did not let the horse waste her energy.

This comment on the 4th place horse " with
the rider of CONSUMER CREDIT increasing his hold, held on well to secure the last major check. "

For you South Africa racing fans :::

CONSUMER CREDIT (dark bay or brown filly, More Than Ready—Sally Bowles, by London News) is out of a mare who in South Africa won the Group 2 KZN Fillies Guineas and was second in the Group 1 Allan Robertson Fillies Championship. Sally Bowles has produced one winner – London Citizen, who is stakes placed in Sweden – from two starters.

Owner: Klaravich Stables & William H. Lawrence

Trainer: Chad Brown

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Sales history: $185,000 Keeneland September yearling

I totally agree that this is one to look for next out, and she is in my stable-mail alert list, for additional reasons on top of an assessment of her trip. I follow Chad Brown closely, and he does not typically send them out to win first time. He commonly uses first time starts in maiden races for conditioning and training, going for the money later, and over a period of several years his strike rate with second time out maidens has been more than twice his first time starter rate, and this is most true with his turf runners, where he particularly excels. He is the opposite of Todd Pletcher that way.

Any Chad Brown firster gets very careful watchful attention from me, with no bet, and if they show some modest ability in their debut then my wallet is cocked and ready for the next race. From a trainer with this consistent pattern, this definitely qualified as considerably more than "show some modest ability." And I hope she's running back on a busy weekend stakes undercard with plenty of folks who see nothing but the program and the Form they just picked up twenty minutes ago on their way in through the turnstiles.

Quote: Buzzard

I could care less about big races. I never went to the Preakness until after they let all those drunken hotties into the infield. In prior years, I just parked cars on people's lawns at $5 or 10 a pop. Lawns of people who were not home.

Now waiting for this 2 year old filly, first time starter MSW, to come back excites me. Well, a winning ticket will, I hope.

CONSUMER CREDIT tracked the front runners towards the inside, was forced to be kept on the hold for
most of the way from the five-sixteenths pole to the top of the lane, caught behind rivals, eased off the rail, got caught in another traffic jam starting about a
sixteenth down the road, had the pilot take hold momentarily responding to being in close proximity to ALL IN FUN in midstretch, gained some but not
optimal racing clearance late, crossed the finish line not having been given her cue.

http://www.nyra.com/belmont/videos/20140905/7/

Not one of Javier Castellano's (Eclipse Award Outstanding Jockey - 2013) best rides, but that is horse racing. At least he gave up, and did not let the horse waste her energy.

Best horse name of the day, AP - Race 5 - #3: "Forget the Name" (That's the name.)

I think the two major turf stakes at Belmont on Saturday provided a pretty good line on where the best of grass racing on the North American continent stands vs. reasonably good but not top class European racing stock. In the Gr. III Noble Damsel, Christophe Clement sent out Annecdote, who went off at over 4:1, perhaps because she was only showing one public workout in the Form after she was purchased and shipped to New York from England.



Then in the Gr. II Sands Point there were two Euros entered, both trained by Chad Brown, but uncoupled in the wagering. Ball Dancing was making her North American debut after finishing 5th in a Group 3 race in France in her last start, while Xcellence had run earlier against graded stakes competition in the U.S. while meeting with two rough adventure filled trips. Xcellence went off as the second favorite at 7:2, while I have absolutely no idea how Ball Dancing got away at over 5/1.



Graded stakes competition on grass in the U.S. is nowhere close to even minor "listed" stakes company in Ireland, France, and the U.K. The straight $2 double involving those two races paid $56, and the exacta in the Sands Point also returned $56 per $2. Lucky me.

The picture has changed considerably for the B.C. Juvenile:

Quote: David Grening @Daily Racing Form

Competitive Edge, the leading 2-year-old male on the East Coast, if not the country, sustained a hairline fracture to his left foreleg and will miss the remainder of his juvenile season, trainer Todd Pletcher said Wednesday...

...<MORE>...

http://www.drf.com/news/competitive-edge-miss-rest-2014

A word about the significance of surfaces and their changing conditions and resulting track biases in horse racing: Everything. The grounds crew at Parx had the track packed down, souped up, ultra fast, and speed favoring to a ludicrous extent for their one big annual Pennsylvania Derby day at their normally third-rate track on Saturday. It amounted to a carbon copy of the set-up for the Haskell at Monmouth the last weekend of July. Any colt that somehow managed to actually lose any ground at all in the stretch after the cushy pace in this race under the surface conditions on that day is simply not fully sound & fit for racing or, more likely, just doesn't really belong in graded stakes company going two turns.



I wouldn't bet anything out of this event going 10 furlongs in the Breeders' Cup Classic with Wizard's money. A couple of them, most notably the winner (with benefit of Bob Baffert's magic oats) have potential for getting something done the B.C. Dirt Mile or even the Sprint, but probably won't end up running there due to the vanity of the poor beast's human connections. I often find myself wishing horses could fire their humans.

Of course there was an exceptional embarrassment of riches in top quality racing last weekend on both coasts, and to mention all the events with Breeders' Cup implications could go on for pages. Sticking just to the two big dirt route contests most directly related to the Classic, I thought both races had some of everything, including some clever race riding as well as some very legit high quality competition.



The final time of 2:02.12 for 10 furlongs in the Gold Cup got a Beyer figure of 106. I was quite content to take the winner across the board at a price of 3/1 on the nose here.



The final time of 1:48.58 for 9 furlongs in the Awesome Again got a Beyer figure of 101. A good performance by the winner on the same (new) Santa Anita surface as the Breeders' Cup. The race had my attention at the end of the raceday, but none of my money at that price.

So, it is down to this: pick your coast. I still prefer the one on the right of the map as being a notch and a half above in this game these days, but can't rule out the clear #1 contender on the left coast, especially in Jerry Hollendorfer's hands. Here are the current odds on the top dozen in the William Hill future book for the Classic as of today (October 1st):

Shared Belief +160
California Chrome 9/2
Tonalist 6/1
Bayern 12/1
Moreno 15/1
Wicked Strong 15/1
Australia 18/1
Clubhouse Ride 20/1
Itsmyluckyday 20/1
Lea 20/1
Moonshine Mullin 20/1
Zivo 20/1

Wm. Hill has future book lines on 25 others at fixed odds ranging from 25/1 up to 125/1. The major recent line movement among these listed above has occurred on two betting interests: California Chrome moved down to 9/2 since the Pennsylvania Derby (which I have to confess I just don't understand - I hope he takes that much money on race day); and Tonalist is apparently taking a lot of action while moving from 12/1 a day after the Gold Cup win down to half that now. At this point I'm liking the value on my early future book ticket on Tonalist at 20/1 fixed odds just fine.

What odds will you give me on a Shared Belief, Tonalist, Australia trifecta box?

it certainly would be interesting if Moreno and Bayern both enter the classic.

Quote: FinsRule

What odds will you give me on a Shared Belief, Tonalist, Australia trifecta box?

I think I might like the same side of that bet... or I would, if I knew what their plans were for Australia, and if I'd seen a good work from him over the surface. No doubt he'd get the distance, and then some.

If the future book odds held true as an accurate reflection of money flow on race-day, and that ticket cashed, it ought to return $200-ish or more on a $1 box for a $6 ticket, depending on which order.

Wicked Strong to Sit Out Rest of Year

Quote: BloodHorse

"He came out of the race OK," Jerkens said. "He did run down on one hind leg, but he's done that before, so I don't think the incident had anything to do with it. We've decided to give him the rest of the year off and not go to California.

For those who followed the previous discussion....

Consumer Credit ran again today @ Belmont on the sloppy track in the 3rd race. She finished 2nd. Overall I liked her race. She pressed the pace outside and flattened out in the stretch. Unfortunately she raced with her head high down the lane, a possible sign that she did not enjoy the wet track today. She also steadied when the winner crossed over and splashed mud in her face. One interesting tidbit: E. Ortiz was her jockey today and J. Castellano won the race on Miss Always Ready.

I will continue to watch her progression into the future.

Listed below are the current top (shortest odds) future wager interests for the Classic from William Hill. With the race only ten days out most of these are very likely to make the race, most likely with only one or perhaps two defections. William Hill also continues to list a large number of other betting interests, still quoting lines for thirty-five in total, some of which have been declared out of the race or even in a few cases retired from racing altogether to stand at stud. Their lines for this are looking quite stale and a bit flaky to me, which could present opportunities for those with a strong contrary opinion on a few of them. In parentheses after the Wm. Hill odds I include an estimate of what I believe is fair value at this point for those where my opinion varies significantly from the W.H. line.

Shared Belief 8/5 (3/1)
California Chrome 9/2 (12/1)
Tonalist 6/1 (3/1)
Bayern 8/1 (10/1)
Moreno 12/1 (8/1)
Tapiture 16/1 (--)
Majestic Harbor 16/1 (--)
Candy Boy 18/1 (12/1)
Zivo 20/1 (--)
Toast Of New York 20/1 (10/1)
Cigar Street 24/1 (--)

you guys go any where special for the BC.....we make the two hr drive to Presque isle in erie pa, they look after us very well there.

What do you mean, no more Breeders' Cup Marathon?

They might as well get rid of the Breeders' Cup Steeplechase while they're at it. (What's that? The Grand National (at Far Hills) hasn't been a Breeders' Cup race since 2011, you say? Well, what do you expect without pari-mutuel betting?)

Quote: ontariodealer

you guys go any where special for the BC.....we make the two hr drive to Presque isle in erie pa, they look after us very well there.

In Las Vegas area books if you don't make reservations in advance for Breeders' Cup weekend you aren't likely to get in anywhere you'd want, at least not to sit down. Since it is important to me to have an IPT (Individual Player Terminal) I made mine some time ago and recently reconfirmed them at one of the larger Strip race & sports books. If there are any folks here planning to visit Las Vegas during that weekend who haven't already got something reserved, if you use a casino host for your stay I'd suggest calling him/her right now and going through them to make the request that something get saved for you in the racebook, since if the book doesn't know you well and you are asking for a seat this late the answer is likely to be: "No, we're full."

Breeders' Cup pre-entries are out.

Bloodhorse: Breeders' Cup Features 201 Pre-Entered Horses

Link to PDF file of complete pre-entry list with the 'also-eligible' list alternates.

What are the odds that Steve Coburn will throw a temper tantrum when Chrome gets beat?

I'm super excited for the BC. Only 4 races on Friday though. I liked the marathon...

I'm gonna play a large Pick-4 ticket both days. I'm singling Shared Belief. I'll probably go 5 deep on the other 3 with euros all over the turf and the mile. Ill be watching from home - I'm gonna try to have some people over.

Go Shared Belief!

Quote: artvandelay

What are the odds that Steve Coburn will throw a temper tantrum when Chrome gets beat?

83.7%

Because the race is going to be fixed just to screw him. There is diabolical plot to let some others enter very same race at the same time, just so he has to run against other horses, which will even be allowed to come from the very same starting gate all around him. And then, a mile and a quarter later, before they let him win they will unfairly require him to cross the wire as the very first one of all, actually ahead of ALL the others, after having to run around the entire track right next to a whole bunch of them. Rigged, obviously.

What are the chances Sana Anita will serve drinks at the bar? And that the hole in the center of his face will open, and some sound will come out of it?

Quote: Keeneone

For those who followed the previous discussion....

Consumer Credit ran again today @ Belmont on the sloppy track in the 3rd race. She finished 2nd. Overall I liked her race. She pressed the pace outside and flattened out in the stretch. Unfortunately she raced with her head high down the lane, a possible sign that she did not enjoy the wet track today. She also steadied when the winner crossed over and splashed mud in her face. One interesting tidbit: E. Ortiz was her jockey today and J. Castellano won the race on Miss Always Ready.

I will continue to watch her progression into the future.

She's in today's 2nd race at Belmont as #5, going 6 furlongs on the "yielding" inner turf course, listed at 5:2 on the morning line, Since her last start she worked once at 4f in 48 & 4/5 (9th of 33) six days ago. I like her chances a lot in this spot.

Quote: DrawingDead

She's in today's 2nd race at Belmont as #5, going 6 furlongs on the "yielding" inner turf course, listed at 5:2 on the morning line, Since her last start she worked once at 4f in 48 & 4/5 (9th of 33) six days ago. I like her chances a lot in this spot.

She won. It was a nice race for her. Flashed speed, backed off, and came on again through traffic to a solid victory. She has talent. I did not have anything on her at 7/5.
----------

Looking forward to Breeder's cup weekend. The race I am currently most interested in is the JUVENILE. Big field signed up (15) with 3 possible favorites. I would guess American Pharoah will be the post time favorite. He has a win over the track and seems to be the best in the "West". I am still trying to find my pick (or 2). Most of these are lightly raced (which is common for 2YO's) and many have that classic speedy front running style.

Anyone have any thoughts on Cigar Street?

So far I think my top 5 for this race are:

Shared Belief
Toast of New York
Cigar Street
Tonalist
Majestic Harbor

Maybe box them in a tri?

RE: Cigar Street

He has good tactical speed. He'll be asked to go further than he's ever been, at by far the highest level of competition he's ever seen. His pedigree does suggest he could stay 10 furlongs, and it is his third start off a year and a half layoff, but can one expect him to jump several major steps up from 'listed' $135k minor stakes competition won with a 100-ish final figure after contesting mediocre 1:12 pace pressure in a small field, up to the highest level of Grade 1 race which can be expected to require a final figure near 110-ish, in the fall of his five year old season? Maybe.

With Bayern and Moreno and possibly Big Cazanova likely to make the pace something near 1:10 flat for 6f and 1:34 for the mile, unless there's a late scratch or a major incident at the start I don't think a horse on the front end will be seen near the wire in the 12th race on Saturday, and he'll need to find a new gear he's never had to use before to kick on to the line. With Street Sense (progeny's avg. wng. dist. 7.4f) on the top and especially further help from Deputy Minister (AWD 7.6f) on the bottom line of his pedigree it is possible for him to keep going, if he rates comfortably behind the pace. I think he's a longshot to get there for the win money, but possibly a legitimate live longshot. I think he may get a little overbet due to being from Bill Mott's barn. I think a fair value odds line on him would be in the low double-digits.

Drawing Dead - Thanks.

I qualified today for the 100k Derby Wars Contest. It's a 2 day contest covering all Breeders races and some of the minor SA & AQ stakes.

133 people in it - 1st place wins 50K!

So if you have any live longshots for Breeders' I wouldn't mind hearing them.

re: Juveniles. American Pharoah scratched. I was going to bet him.

re: Classic. I'm sending money with a friend who gets to do the whole VIP thing. I think I like the trifecta box of 5 horses:

Shared Belief 1/1 9-5
Bayern 2/2 6-1
California Chrome 3/4 4-1
Candy Boy 3/3 20-1
Toast of New York 0/0 12-1

I could be talked into any of:
Tonalist 0/0 5-1
Cigar Street 0/0 12-1
Majestic Harbor 4/6 20-1

instead of the last 3, though I really like everything I'm seeing about Candy Boy.

The first stat is the number of wins/races at Santa Anita, and the second stat is the current odds.

I would greatly appreciate any knowledgeable advice on the race.

About the Juvenile:
With A. Pharoah out of the race the event certainly loses a lot of "starpower", but is still an interesting betting event. Plenty of pace/speed entered in this one. My value play would be Upstart (13), and Carpe Diem (9) looks the horse to beat.
Thoughts on the other horses: Daredevil - yet to race on a fast track, but otherwise hard to knock. Mr. Z - like the jockey change but do not understand the adding of blinkers for his 6th start. Texas Red - if pace is crazy fast he could close into the exotics. One Lucky Dane - the "other" Baffert horse is speedy but this is first start against winners. Calculator - pedigree suggests a better sprinter. Lucky Player - slow times and lack of competition. Private Prospect - 1st route and lack of competition. Souper Colossal - hard to knock but do not like the 60+ days off. The Great War - 1st US start, 1st dirt, 1st route. Blue Dancer - slow times and lack of competition.

Don't be too cheap when trying to hit BC races. Reach deeper into your pocket and use an extra horse or two.

The National Weather service claims there's a "100% chance" of what they say will be "heavy rain" in Arcadia (Santa Anita) tomorrow. Shocking. I don't believe it. There is no weather in LA. Ever. There are traffic tides that ebb and flow and swirl about; never anything resembling actual weather. But that's what they are saying.

Quote: FinsRule

Drawing Dead - Thanks.

I qualified today for the 100k Derby Wars Contest. It's a 2 day contest covering all Breeders races and some of the minor SA & AQ stakes.

133 people in it - 1st place wins 50K!

So if you have any live longshots for Breeders' I wouldn't mind hearing them.

I've never done one of those contest/tournament things, strictly a cash player in this game. So I don't really know the structure of how those things work, but I'm guessing that grinding out a steady profit (as I try to do) doesn't get it done in those things, and that it is mostly about trying to find some that could get there at boxcar odds in order to have a chance at the tournament money, right?

I still have a lot more work to do getting ready for the next two days, so these are just tentative suggestions to dig into further, and I have no time to explain myself right now, but here are some you might want to look at on the Santa Anita cards. Not necessarily for the most likely winner, but for something that may be live with the potential to pay a double digit price:

• Fri, Race 4, Twilight Derby, #2 Talco;
• Fri, Race 6, BC Juvenile Turf, #9 Aktabantay;
• Fri, Race 8, BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, #6 Sivoliere;
• Fri, Race 9, BC Distaff, #1 L'Amour de Ma Vie;
• Sat, Race 3, Senator Ken Maddy Stakes, #5 Gender Agenda;
• Sat, Race 5, BC Filly & Mare Turf, #5 Secret Gesture;
• Sat, Race 7, BC Turf Sprint, #13 Caspar Netscher.

Also, while I don't think he's the most likely winner, the more I look at Mott's horse you mentioned in the Classic (Cigar Street) the more I think he does have to be taken seriously, and if someone is fishing for a "get well" shot at the end of it all he may merit something closer to high single digits rather than the 12/1 morning line price that's about what I first suggested for him earlier.

Good luck.

Quote: artvandelay

Don't be too cheap when trying to hit BC races. Reach deeper into Art Vandelay's pocket and use an extra horse or two.

FYP.

Good stuff Drawing Dead, thank you for posting. The "weather" may influence the Saturday races....(My comments in parenthesis).

Fri, Race 4, Twilight Derby, #2 Talco; (I love Talco as well, but I think others feel the same way).
Fri, Race 6, BC Juvenile Turf, #9 Aktabantay; (Wide open race, I am looking @ War Envoy).
Fri, Race 8, BC Juvenile Fillies Turf, #6 Sivoliere; (Wide open race, I am looking @ Osaila).
Fri, Race 9, BC Distaff, #1 L'Amour de Ma Vie; (Close Hatches looks the one to beat, IMHO).
(Fri, Race 7, BC Dirt Mile, Goldencents looks like the Friday single. He is a horse for the course, and he will be tough to beat).

No current comment on the Saturday races (other than the BC Juvenile already posted).

Sat, Race 3, Senator Ken Maddy Stakes, #5 Gender Agenda;
Sat, Race 5, BC Filly & Mare Turf, #5 Secret Gesture;
Sat, Race 7, BC Turf Sprint, #13 Caspar Netscher.

Good horseshoes to all!

I find that much of the commonly published most widely distributed pedigree data ranges from kinda sorta okay to mediocre to flaky to junk, including the Tomlinson numbers that appear in the Form. So I do my own work, because nobody takes better more thorough care of Mr. Dead's money in these matters than I do. So, here is some relevant pedigree data for "mud" propensity for the two Breeders' Cup events that are scheduled for the main (dirt) track today. I don't have time to mess with the formatting of the text output from my spreadsheet's data for posting here, but the 'mudder' number is the 4th one after the name of each entrant, calculated by me using a weighted average (roughly 2x progeny of sire + 1x damsire's progeny) of both sides of the pedigree. For example, the wet track number for Goldencents is 3.0, and for Carve it is 4.7, etc. The higher the better for running in mud.

R7: Dirt Mile
#1 Goldencents 2.9 6.8 3.0 3.0 2.3 3.0
#2 Carve 2.7 7.4 2.0 4.7 2.0 4.3
#3 Vicar's in Trouble 3.0 6.8 3.0 3.3 2.3 3.0
#4 Pants On Fire 1.6 6.9 2.3 3.7 1.3 3.0
#5 Handsome Mike 2.3 7.3 3.0 2.7 2.7 4.3
#6 Golden Ticket 2.8 6.8 2.7 4.3 2.0 3.7
#7 Bronzo 1.6 7.0 2.0 3.0 1.3 2.7
#8 Fed Biz 2.7 8.0 2.3 3.0 2.0 2.7
#9 Tapiture 2.3 7.0 2.7 4.0 2.0 2.7
#10 Big Bane Theory 1.3 7.5 1.0 2.0 2.0 3.0

R9: Distaff
#1 L'Amour de Ma Vie 2.3 8.0 2.3 3.0 1.7 3.0
#2 Tiz Midnight 1.7 7.1 1.3 2.3 1.7 2.7
#3 Iotapa 1.6 7.4 2.0 3.3 1.3 3.0
#4 Belle Gallantey 1.3 7.1 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.7
#5 Unbridled Forever 2.7 7.4 2.7 3.7 2.0 4.3
#6 Stanwyck 2.8 7.6 2.0 4.0 1.7 5.0
#7 Don't Tell Sophia 1.2 6.7 2.7 3.0 2.0 3.3
#8 Valiant Emilia 1.4 7.7 2.0 2.5 1.5 3.0
#9 Ria Antonia 1.3 6.7 2.0 2.0 1.3 3.0
#10 Untapable 2.3 7.3 2.7 3.3 2.0 2.7
#11 Close Hatches 3.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 2.3 4.0

But here's the thing: Nobody knows how the Santa Anita surface will tend to play under the varied range of potential wet and drying out conditions, because no horse has ever run on it under any of those possible conditions. The new surface has only existed for a bit over a month, and there has not been a drop of rain since it was installed. Careful attention to the undercard for determining potential track biases under the conditions is wise.

The 2nd number, by the way, is the distance proclivity, in case that interests some others. The higher the longer.

Good luck.

Quote: beachbumbabs

re: Juveniles. American Pharoah scratched. I was going to bet him.

re: Classic. I'm sending money with a friend who gets to do the whole VIP thing. I think I like the trifecta box of 5 horses:

Shared Belief 1/1 9-5
Bayern 2/2 6-1
California Chrome 3/4 4-1
Candy Boy 3/3 20-1
Toast of New York 0/0 12-1

I could be talked into any of:
Tonalist 0/0 5-1
Cigar Street 0/0 12-1
Majestic Harbor 4/6 20-1

instead of the last 3, though I really like everything I'm seeing about Candy Boy.

The first stat is the number of wins/races at Santa Anita, and the second stat is the current odds.

I would greatly appreciate any knowledgeable advice on the race.

Bayern is the only one I'd throw out. Because if he wins, that means that speed is going to be with him, and you don't have the other speed horses in there. I guess I could see him finishing 3rd, but then I would construct a different type of bet.

The alleged water coming out of the sky in LA is looking most likely for overnight & tomorrow, rather than today.

Since I put up this thread I should probably go on record with some early opinions so folks can begin to ridicule them at will in about 11 hours. On today's Santa Anita card (listed in no particular order, wagering decisions for me remaining subject to appearance on the track and tote board status):

• Race 1: Night Song;
• Race 4: Talco, Flamboyant; Ring Weekend;
• Race 6: Wet Sail, Commemorative, Aktabantay;
• Race 7: Tapiture;
• Race 8: Osaila, Sivolier, Qualify;
• Race 9: L'Amour de Ma Vie;
• Race 10: Demonic.

I expect tomorrow to be a much more significant wagering day for me than anything on today's card.

Yee-haw, giddyup! Let's do this thing!

Quote: FinsRule

Bayern is the only one I'd throw out. Because if he wins, that means that speed is going to be with him, and you don't have the other speed horses in there. I guess I could see him finishing 3rd, but then I would construct a different type of bet.

Fins,

Thanks very much for weighing in! I'm feeling more and more like Cigar Street has to be a part of it; maybe Bayern is the one to drop. DrawingDead, I'd love to hear what you think about my 5 horse box (above) as well, please?

here is a link to some handicapping info posted on a another site I am on

http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html

Quote: beachbumbabs

Fins,

Thanks very much for weighing in! I'm feeling more and more like Cigar Street has to be a part of it; maybe Bayern is the one to drop. DrawingDead, I'd love to hear what you think about my 5 horse box (above) as well, please?

I can tell you what DD is going to say. He's going to say you should drop Chrome and put in Tonalist. I think tonalist should definitely be in there somewhere, but I like Cigar Street as well.

My contest starts in 10 minutes with Race 3 at Santa Anita.

20 races - 9 today - 11 tomorrow. A $2 WP in each race. 1st place wins $50,000. Paid to 10th place ($1750). 133 entries.

Here are my picks as of right now (I can change them up until post time):

SA 3 - 9
SA 4 - 9
SA 5 - 12
SA 6 - 4
SA 7 - 2
SA 8 - 6
SA 9 - 4
SA 10 - 9
AQ 6 - 6

The goal is to stay in the top half through today which means a good day tomorrow and I'm in contention. Good luck to me.

My three shots tomorrow are Silentio, Indianapolis and Zivo. Hope at least one brings home the bacon for me.

I love Indianapolis.

shared belief and tonalist appear to be the two to beat and like Moreno a bit in the classic so my tic will have 4/6 /11 in the top and 1/9 in the bottom

Quote: Johnzimbo

My three shots tomorrow are Silentio, Indianapolis and Zivo. Hope at least one brings home the bacon for me.

Read something good about Zivo and found it believable. You might have a chance.

In spite of the comparatively light Friday card, today was kind of interesting. Because you know it takes a real skilled professional to strike out every time; an amateur would accidentally hit the ball occasionally. For those of you who are fading everything I say about these events, I'll try to make you rich with some remarks here early tomorrow, and we shall see if I can manage to whiff the entire main menu of nine Grade 1 BC races, and look as publicly foolish as possible while doing so. If I have time to elaborate much it will probably be in the wee small hours tomorrow morning, especially for mentioning any of my relatively smallish little fishing expeditions in some races.

But I have two significant races that I do expect to probably put some serious money in that will be far more important than everything else I fool around with all weekend, and that I expect will most likely make or break not just my Breeders' Cup but my whole month and more: Toronado in the Turf Mile (Pgm. #5, SA Race #11, at 4:40 PDT), immediately followed by Tonalist in the Classic (Pgm. #11, SA Race #12, at 5:35 PDT).

I'm already heavily exposed to Tonalist for potentially getting the win in the Classic due to my very early future book wagers on him at 20/1 fixed odds, so I really don't need to be adding anything more to that by getting involved in the win pool for the final race tomorrow, but I will be looking for some leverage 'underneath' in some of the other pools involving him. The more I dig into it the more misgivings I have about a few that I expect to take a lot of money, and I think it is quite possible for those to finish off the board disproportionately juicing up the payouts in some of the wagering pools other than wagering straight up on the nose to win on my big hoss.

In the other major event for me (and likely the bigger total wager) I think Toronado is simply a vastly superior top class Turf miler. I expect him to be the clear chalk in the Mile, but if he isn't hammered into a completely ridiculous price I'm willing to roll with that as far across the tote board as the wagering flow sensibly permits, since he's far above the usual 2nd tier Euros that are commonly seen shipping over & winning some Breeders' Cup turf events. US racing fans usually don't handle grass analysis all that well, and I hope even the most prime chalk horse of the day permits some opportunity there for me with the big flood of casual money splashing into the parimutual pools on Breeders' Cup Saturday. The only issue to me is whether he adapts passably well to some of the differences in US style turf courses (mostly the turns) as well as I expect, and I believe him to be by far the most likely winner on the card.

Quote: FinsRule

My contest starts in 10 minutes with Race 3 at Santa Anita.

20 races - 9 today - 11 tomorrow. A $2 WP in each race. 1st place wins $50,000. Paid to 10th place ($1750). 133 entries.

Here are my picks as of right now (I can change them up until post time):

SA 3 - 9
SA 4 - 9
SA 5 - 12
SA 6 - 4
SA 7 - 2
SA 8 - 6
SA 9 - 4
SA 10 - 9
AQ 6 - 6

The goal is to stay in the top half through today which means a good day tomorrow and I'm in contention. Good luck to me.

Hope the first half of your contest left you in the running, Fins! Looking forward to the update.

Out of the 9 races - I had 0 winners and 3 placings. I'm squarely in the middle of the pack (around 50th), but since there were no big upsets, I would say I'm still in contention. I obviously need a big day here, but it's still possible.

Yesterday, my big bet was the Pick-4. ALL / Goldencents / ALL / Untapable. I did hit it for $150, but it should have been a lot better. On the ALL's - the first one was hit by a 6-1 (3-1 morning line) and the other ALL was hit by a 5/2. If one of those is a 20-1 it would have been a signer. If both are 20-1s, we're talking 3 or 4K. So I'm up about $100 overall going into Saturday, which I shouldn't be unhappy about I guess.

For the classic, I like Shared Belief and Toast of New York. I'll be betting on them in some exotics.

Thoughts of a miscellaneous nature:

The first half of the Santa Anita card is mostly inscrutable to me, and I won't be trying to look at it much further lest I start to see things that aren't there. In the Juvenile (race #8) among the two obvious favorites I am more interested in Carpe Diem than Daredevil, and have been since he first went to the track and broke his maiden at Saratoga. I don't know that I can play him against his talented and probably more precociously developed stablemate, but he holds more interest for me in following his development into his 3 year old season next year. Using a weighted average of data from what has been produced by both sides of their pedigrees, their sire production indexes are nearly identical at 2.9 and 2.6. but the average winning distance, which also is a strong clue to the length of the development curve, is 7.9 for Carpe Diem and 7.1 for Daredevil. While that indicates Daredevil can certainly handle a middle distance race such as today's 8.5 furlong race, Carpe Diem has much more upside, and is likely to improve further with more distance and maturity when Daredevil tops out at some point. Carpe Diem is well bred to go a mile and a quarter or more and continue to improve well into his 3 y/o season, and I've heard there might be a few races for such animals somewhere next spring and summer somewhere or other.

In race 9, the Breeders' Cup Turf, there are two clear top level world class standouts who can compete with the very best on the planet going a mile and a half on grass, and a supporting cast of merely good but not potentially great turf distance contenders. They are difficult to separate and the result may depend on racing luck and who gets the better trip, but I think Flintshire will probably be favored off his impressive 2nd to Treve at Longchamp in the Arc de Triomphe, while I lean toward Sir Michael Stoute's Telescope. From my pedigree database Telescope's SPI is 6.4 and his family's AWD is 10.4 (bred to run two miles up hill toting a refridgerator!) while Flintshire's pedigree carries a lesser but quite impressive (for running classic distances on grass)
SPI of 3.2 anf AWD of 9.4. Telescope gets Lasix for his US race, while Flintshire does not. They are both superb contenders who are worthy of the event, and I really look forward to it for enjoying the best of the sport.

In the 10th race, the Breeders' Cup Sprint, I'm convinced that the Hong Kong horse Rich Tapestry is for real at this level on this surface, but I also keep coming back to Wind Fire as an intriguing sort that would pay cha-ching if he should find a good stride on this surface.

Then we have my money races. I expect Shared Belief to be heavily favored in the Classic, possibly going to post at not much more than even money, and he has absolutely earned that reputation, but I also see vulnerabilities on several counts and I think he is NOT any sort of "lock" here at all. I won't be surprised if he gets there, but I also won't be surprised if he is off the board. If the race was on Polytrack or Tapeta at something in the neighborhood of 8 or 9 furlongs I'd expect him to stalk and pounce and win by open lengths. But it isn't. His pedigree carries an AWD of 7.0, which is on the border between indicating a ceiling in middle distances or jsut possibly stretching into handling more in the "classic" distance territory of 10 furlongs. And with Candy Ride on top and Storm Cat on the bottom his pedigree is also extremely favorable for running on synthetic surfaces, as almost all of his races have been. Does he really want to extend to a mile and a quarter in a top level Grade 1 on conventional dirt at this point? He was hard pressed to get up by a neck to Fed Biz, a Grade 2 type who is a stone cold middle distance horse that was running at the outer edge of that one's well established distance limitations. Belief put up a final speed figure that just cracked 100 in that race in the Awesome Again at 9f on this dirt surface, and that won't get the money here. It'll take something around a 110 or so figure. And I have growing suspicions about where he's likely to be in his form cycle and development curve right now.

But, he is clearly a quality talented colt who has already legitimately accomplished a lot, he is in excellent hands with Hollendorfer, and in my opinion he is a far more serious contender for this event than the other popular California based entrant who will be sucking up buckets of money in an event for which that colt is totally unsuited. Chrome is simply not this kind. A colt with some modest ability who gets to lope along at a pace of nearly 1:12 and inherits the lead in 1:37 and change against young three year olds in May can look good. He wont get anything like that here. Try 1:10 and 1:35, and stick a fork in Chrome because with an SPI of 1.8 and an AWD of 6.8 he's cooked with bloody foam spraying from his nostrils. For belief in Belief, a lot depends on your interpretation of the trip he got in his last race. I'm not as impressed by that "trouble" as some other observers. But if he gets a good hold of the surface this time and handles the distance, with a clean trip he could win it, possibly even by a couple of lengths. Or, he could just as easily flatten out and hang in the last eighth to finish fourth or fifth. I think he deserves to be one of the two favorites today, but I also expect him to be significantly overbet given the vulnerabilities.

I expect California Chrome to be nowhere within six lengths of the wire, and to have a horse van full of excuses waiting at the barn. I think he has no business being in this event at all, and the only place he'll be getting his picture taken is by the adoring crowd around the paddock before the race. In stark contrast, with Christophe Clement's colt being bred top and bottom to be specifically suited to exactly this specific task (AWD 7.7) and expertly handled and giving every indication in physical appearance and on the track of continued development, I'm liking my position with Tonalist more every week and now every day and hour... until of course he shies from a soggy seagull and dumps Rosario on his assets at the gate and I tear up my precious tickets on him that I've been fondling for months now.

Good luck, but not too much of it in that particular race.

I've backed Shared Belief for a while, and I'm not switching.

Re: Chrome vs. Tonalist

At Tonalists home track, going 1/4 mile further than they will be today, Tonalist beat Chrome by 2 lengths. Now, at Chrome's home at a shorter distance, I have to say I think it's tough to say Chrome has no shot to finish better than Tonalist. I think the race shapes up a bit better for Tonalist in terms of pace, but what has Tonalist done outside of NY?

I'd rank em:

1. Shared Belief
2. Toast
3. Tonalist
4. Chrome
5. Cigar Street

But I wouldn't argue anyone who moves Chrome to 3 and Tonalist to 4.