2014 World Cup bets

I bet Ann Coulter isn't betting on any world cup games.

What a troll.

Quote: FinsRule

UNDER 2.5 seems to be a lock for the US game.

Ghana / Portugal figures to have a lot of goals. But 2.5 (-170) is a lot to take.

Easy money to those who listened :-)

Quote: FinsRule

Easy money to those who listened :-)

Without any soccer knowledge, 2-1/2 u-15 did look like a good number to take, given that it was within the range of the available lines on the same bet in other matches where different scoring incentives exist. And I did nothing about it. I like to know what it is that I don't know.

Finally,I am up in this World Cup. +710 this week. Almost won $200 on Costa Rica. Line was PK -120, I took $200 on Costa Rica. Costa got ripped on a handball. No call, otherwise the game should have been over at that point.

Something in the betting market on the World Cup has me confused.

On Saturday I observed a moment of silence in honor of the passing away of my little 'just for fun' wager on Chile to win the World Cup (that was not EXACTLY what I had in mind by "fun to watch" and "entertainment value" guys - close but not quite what was in the script). So, since that was not a totally boring use of my money I decided to take another little bite, on Colombia.

It was well after Colombia won their match, at the end of the more serious part of my day, as I was packing up to leave after doing my usual racebook business in a ginormous MGM owned property at the time, and I looked up at the board over on the sports side and saw their line on Colombia was at 15:1. That price seemed "ehhh" to me, so I checked on the William Hill mobile app. They quoted 20:1 and I booked it with them. Only about 30 minutes later I was taking care of some errands in a certain large brown edifice that rhymes with "Wynn" and saw their line was at 10:1. Yikes. I could try to fantasize that I'm suddenly a fuuuutbowl genius outwitting the linemakers, but since I believe in keeping thorough records of everything I do for any amount of money in any casino I have solid evidence in front of me that I'm not only a flea on non-parimutual house-banked sports but also sometimes a fish when I wander over to the sports side.

So, this is an extreme case of what economists refer to as "an inefficient market" in the specific case of World Cup futures, or there was a sudden huge surge of action on Colombia that only began well after all the day's matches were done for more than a couple of hours, or Wynn is taking a ridiculous amount of juice in their WC futures, or they had a big convention of Colombians at that one hotel eager to go downstairs to shovel money on the home team at any price, or what? I don't know. 15/1 or 20/1 or 10/1, huh? Not what I usually see for the range of lines on other sports betting, at least not to that extent, in that short time frame, with no apparent relevant intervening events.

EDIT: Spelling, with assistance from my consultant.

Fiesta in Brussels tonight!

I must say I was impressed by the US goal keeper Tim Howard, who stopped not fewer than 25 (count them!) goal shots. But we finally got through.

Congrats.
Will you be supporting little Belgium in the quarter finals?

Quote: kubikulann

Fiesta in Brussels tonight!

I must say I was impressed by the US goal keeper Tim Howard, who stopped not fewer than 25 (count them!) goal shots. But we finally got through.

Congrats.
Will you be supporting little Belgium in the quarter finals?

I'll offer some sophisticated expert fuutbowl analysis: They play better. Would've been wrong if it went to penalty kicks & they lost.

But when deciding whether a sports team is worthy of becoming the object of Mr. D. Dead's deep affection and sincere support, a bit more information is required: What's the money line on that?*

*Unless the team sport involves a large wooden stick and the team is named St. Louis Cardinals.

Quote: kubikulann

Fiesta in Brussels tonight!

I must say I was impressed by the US goal keeper Tim Howard, who stopped not fewer than 25 (count them!) goal shots. But we finally got through.

Congrats.
Will you be supporting little Belgium in the quarter finals?

Congrats to you and yours. ESPN gave Tim Howard credit for 16 saves, which was a World Cup record. I don't know enough about football to know whether you're correct or they are. But as he said, Belgium had the better team out there today and deserved to win. The US performed with honor. Doesn't get much better than that.

It seems like the cream rises in soccer as the 8 teams that won their brackets moved on and the pretenders, like the US (Sorry) ended up where they probably belonged when you only win once in 4 games.

For football, I mean soccer, USA has a longggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg way to go.

Quote: DrawingDead

Something in the betting market on the World Cup has me confused.

I decided to take another little bite, on Columbia.

It was well after Columbia won their match,

there was a sudden huge surge of action on Columbia or they had a big convention of Columbians

Columbia is the Ivy League University I attended with my classmate, Barrack Obama.
Colombia is the country still gunning for a world cup.
The lifeguard at my pool is from Colombia, so I guess I now have to root for them.....

Quote: speedycrap

For football, I mean soccer, USA has a longggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg way to go.

I don't agree. They performed quite beautifully in this WCup. They could (should?) have won against Portugal. They stood their ground against Germany and Belgium. I really believe they are joining the top in the next years.

Quote: beachbumbabs

Congrats to you and yours. ESPN gave Tim Howard credit for 16 saves, which was a World Cup record. I don't know enough about football to know whether you're correct or they are.

They. I just counted the number of goal shots for Belgium. But not all were saved by Howard. Nevertheless, he was impressive (and a cause for heart attacks among Belgian supporters...)

Quote: SOOPOO

Columbia is the Ivy League University I attended with my classmate, Barrack Obama.
Colombia is the country still gunning for a world cup.
The lifeguard at my pool is from Colombia, so I guess I now have to root for them.....

Good catch. And Columbia is a river I lived near, and also what I will claim I've bet on if either Brazil or Brasil thrashes them in a few days.

Unfortunately for that plan I see that the fine nation, named after the same fellow as both the university and the river, is correctly identified as Colombia in the app I used to place the bet. I've now edited the post so you won't have to see the atrocity.

But fuutbowl stays.

Quote: kubikulann

I don't agree. They performed quite beautifully in this WCup. They could (should?) have won against Portugal. They stood their ground against Germany and Belgium. I really believe they are joining the top in the next years.

Then I am missing something. How do you win one out of 4 games and be considered to have performed quite beautifully? I understand they played good teams but if this is how performance is measured in this sport, no wonder very few care about it in this country on a regular basis. We like winners and expect nothing less. The people who all of a sudden because soccer fans in the US are the same people that watch the Olympics every 2-4 years but would never watch skiing or bobsledding the other 4 years. And don't let me get started on Curling. They watched soccer for the same reason they watch American Idol or Dancing with the Stars, pure herd mentality. 9 out of 10 people in my bar watching the game yesterday could not name one team or player in MLS. And the Union are less than an hour away.

But I am not complaining, business was great on a holiday week Tuesday at 4PM that would normally be one of the slowest days of the week.

Now if the damn Phillies could actually play to their payroll. :)

The USA was DOMINATED by Belgium. Great goaltending kept them in the game. The US is NOT close to being an elite team. They won 1 game, against another middling team, and were 1 draw and 2 losses against the 3 better teams.
Did anyone bet the "no Belgium" bet we discussed? Still not likely they will win it all, but I wouldn't be happy now.....

A thought experiment: If they announced a "do over" and they'd be replaying the match tomorrow, what betting line would be needed for you to bet on the US to win, in a "3-way" line where they must win without overtime and a penalty kick tie-breaker in order to cash that bet? With actual money. Your very own actual money. Enough of it that you could buy real stuff with it that you'd like to have.

I think I might require the following odds: Your money.

But I don't know fuutbowl.

Quote: Boz

Then I am missing something. How do you win one out of 4 games and be considered to have performed quite beautifully? I understand they played good teams but if this is how performance is measured in this sport, no wonder very few care about it in this country on a regular basis. We like winners and expect nothing less.

That's funny: I just had a talk about Jurgen Klinsmann (German, US team coach). He is reported telling his players that they wouldn't win the WC but 8th Finals was a great result; he was supposedly rebuffed as not in the US spirit on the lines of "We Americans aim at nothing but the victory." You seem to confirm this.

It is not about whom you play, but how you play them.
Football (aka soccer) is much more a game of chance than some other sports, I think. Because the typical score is made of few goals. The team with the best play or the most opportunities is not always the winner. On a pool championship, this tends to equal out and the best teams consistently win in the end. But in a Cup format, underdogs have their chance of going far, if not to the final.

Germany up 5 to zip in 30 minutes. Game over.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Germany up 5 to zip in 30 minutes. Game over.

I need an over/under on how many Brazilian players will be murdered tonight?

Quote: DRich

I need an over/under on how many Brazilian players will be murdered tonight?

0.