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beerseason
beerseason
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June 2nd, 2014 at 8:40:13 AM permalink
Will there be any picks for today?
steeldco
steeldco
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June 2nd, 2014 at 9:07:18 AM permalink
Sorry. Yes. Soon.
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 2nd, 2014 at 9:25:49 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
New York Yankees 115
Minnesota Twins 143
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:56:09 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
New York Yankees -100
Minnesota Twins -100

Yesterday's results: -200
+130dogs -100
Other dogs -100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +1,958
+130dogs +3,408
Other dogs -452
Favorites -998
Focus Picks +247
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 3rd, 2014 at 4:15:53 AM permalink
Today's Picks (Pittsburgh is being included even though a line is not yet available. Will post when I see one):
Philadelphia Phillies 160
Toronto Blue Jays 125
San Francisco Giants 104
Seattle Mariners 145
Miami Marlins 105
Baltimore Orioles 105
Minnesota Twins 140
Arizona DiamondBacks 155
Pittsburgh Pirates -

There's 1 Focus Picks for today:
Miami Marlins 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 3rd, 2014 at 3:51:36 PM permalink
Today's Picks with the Pittsburgh line added:
Philadelphia Phillies 160
Toronto Blue Jays 125
San Francisco Giants 104
Seattle Mariners 145
Miami Marlins 105
Baltimore Orioles 105
Minnesota Twins 140
Arizona DiamondBacks 155
Pittsburgh Pirates -120
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 4:44:30 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Philadelphia Phillies -100
Toronto Blue Jays +125
San Francisco Giants -100
Seattle Mariners +145
Miami Marlins +105
Baltimore Orioles +105
Minnesota Twins +140
Arizona DiamondBacks +155
Pittsburgh Pirates +100

Yesterday's results: +675
+130dogs +340
Other dogs +235
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +5

YTD Total +2,633
+130dogs +3,748
Other dogs -217
Favorites -898
Focus Picks +252
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 5:58:24 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Seattle Mariners 128
Philadelphia Phillies 175
Boston Red Sox 133
San Francisco Giants 105
Texas Rangers EV
Houston Astros 118
Kansas City Royals 125


There are 2 Focus Picks today:
Seattle Mariners 128
San Francisco Giants 105
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beerseason
beerseason
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June 4th, 2014 at 6:37:58 AM permalink
Thanks, got in on this Monday, lost the one bet then yesterday more than made up for this. I found a line yesterday that was close to -130, -128 for the blue jays and forgot to see if it changed, would it have been advantageous to take the -128 or just seen if line changed. I didn't know since it was so close.
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 6:43:58 AM permalink
I think that you can probably do OK doing that, but I'm kinda anal about this stuff.....I think. To me, if it's not exactly right, take a pass. There will be plenty of picks upcoming so why risk it? Just my 2 cents worth.....
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beerseason
beerseason
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June 4th, 2014 at 6:44:12 AM permalink
Also does your formula take in account the lines you have listed, or is it any 130 dog. Like today I found your -128 for -130 but your -175 for -165. Would you still take those?
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 6:46:39 AM permalink
Since I compile the stats based upon what I list, I would take any team (which I have listed) if it is 130 or above. For example, if I have a pick at +130 and you only can get +128, I would still take it. Conversely, if I have a team listed at +127 and you find a +135, I would shy away from it.
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beerseason
beerseason
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June 4th, 2014 at 7:01:13 AM permalink
Ok makes sense, so like today you have Red Sox -
+130, I found + 120, and phillies you had +175 only could find +165, you would still take those, if you were in Vegas and you were being "anal". I don't mean that as derogatory, as I am too that's why I'm asking. On the flip side, like you have mariners +128 but could find them at +130 you wouldn't take it?
steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 7:08:10 AM permalink
Yes. Correct.
However, you raised an interesting question and when I have some time, I'm going to compile the data for slightly smaller dogs and see how they have done.
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beerseason
beerseason
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June 4th, 2014 at 7:20:18 AM permalink
Off topic. Do you ever attend WoV Com or G2E? I follow your stock picks thread and your sports one and seem very knowledgeable.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 7:32:38 AM permalink
I have not. Maybe some day. But I am glad that you're seeing some value to the thread.
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 10:14:07 AM permalink
Quote: beerseason

Off topic. Do you ever attend WoV Com or G2E? I follow your stock picks thread and your sports one and seem very knowledgeable.



beerseason, I'm sorry that I did not thank you for your kind words. Thanks!
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steeldco
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June 4th, 2014 at 2:43:10 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Yes. Correct.
However, you raised an interesting question and when I have some time, I'm going to compile the data for slightly smaller dogs and see how they have done.



beerseason, I checked and it looks like +130 is the proper cutoff. I compiled the results for the levels of +120 thru +129 and it's a net loser. Particularly in the range of +125 thru +129.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2014 at 4:53:07 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Seattle Mariners +128
Philadelphia Phillies -100
Boston Red Sox -100
San Francisco Giants +105
Texas Rangers -100
Houston Astros -100
Kansas City Royals -100

Yesterday's results: -267
+130dogs -200
Other dogs -67
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +233

YTD Total +2,366
+130dogs +3,548
Other dogs -284
Favorites -898
Focus Picks +485
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2014 at 5:14:20 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Oakland Athletics 160
Toronto Blue Jays 155
Philadelphia Phillies 170
LA Angels of Anaheim -133
Baltimore Orioles 105
Minnesota Twins 110
Arizona DiamondBacks 127

There is 1 Focus Pick for today and it is :
LA Angels of Anaheim -133
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2014 at 1:31:42 PM permalink
Just as an FYI, the Focus Picks are off to a pretty good start. Tiny sample size.....I know, but there have been 11 picks and 8 winners in those. A $200 investment (bankroll) has turned into a return of the $200 plus $585 in winnings. I can kinda like that.......
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 5th, 2014 at 1:36:24 PM permalink
As long as I'm at it, here are the current stats on +130dogs:

Wins 88
Losses 94
Total Plays 182

Wins 13,003
Losses -9,400
Net 3,603


Total Invested 761
Return 3,603
Return % 466.23%

Avg. Daily Invested 298.39
Avg. Daily Return 57.23
Avg. Daily Return % 19.18%

Average Per Winning Pick 147.7613636
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 6th, 2014 at 2:40:26 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Oakland Athletics -100
Toronto Blue Jays +155
Philadelphia Phillies -100
LA Angels of Anaheim -133
Baltimore Orioles -100
Minnesota Twins -100
Arizona DiamondBacks +127

Yesterday's results: -251
+130dogs -45
Other dogs -73
Favorites -133
Focus Picks -133

YTD Total +2,115
+130dogs +3,503
Other dogs -357
Favorites -1,031
Focus Picks +352
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 6th, 2014 at 3:06:37 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Miami Marlins 110
Pittsburgh Pirates 101
Oakland Athletics -105
Boston Red Sox 113
Seattle Mariners 125
Cleveland Indians 170
Houston Astros 110
Arizona DiamondBacks 103
Chicago White Sox 180

There are 2 Focus Picks today:
Miami Marlins 110
Seattle Mariners 125
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 7th, 2014 at 3:06:11 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Miami Marlins -100
Pittsburgh Pirates 101
Oakland Athletics 100
Boston Red Sox -100
Seattle Mariners -100
Cleveland Indians -100
Houston Astros 110
Arizona DiamondBacks -100
Chicago White Sox -100

Yesterday's results: -289
+130dogs -200
Other dogs -189
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -200

YTD Total +1,826
+130dogs +3,303
Other dogs -546
Favorites -931
Focus Picks +152
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 7th, 2014 at 3:28:32 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
St. Louis Cardinals 147
Miami Marlins 129
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Colorado Rockies 126
Seattle Mariners 136
Atlanta Braves -105
LA Angels of Anaheim 113


We have now had 3 consecutive losing days with the +130dogs so I hope for a good day today. However, if the losing streak is extended then I will be doubling up the units tomorrow since this year it has never gone beyond 3 consecutive days and the longest streak all of last year was 5.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 7th, 2014 at 6:42:44 AM permalink
I found a line that I like on the Oakland-Baltimore game and have revised today's picks to include Baltimore. List below.

St. Louis Cardinals 147
Miami Marlins 129
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Colorado Rockies 126
Seattle Mariners 136
Baltimore Orioles 130
Atlanta Braves -105
LA Angels of Anaheim 113
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2014 at 5:44:20 AM permalink
As expected, we had a good day. Now let's see if it was the start of a streak that will add to the profits....

Yesterday's Results:
St. Louis Cardinals +147
Miami Marlins -100
Pittsburgh Pirates -105
Colorado Rockies +126
Seattle Mariners +136
Baltimore Orioles +130
Atlanta Braves -105
LA Angels of Anaheim +113

Yesterday's results: +342
+130dogs +413
Other dogs +139
Favorites -210
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +2,168
+130dogs +3,716
Other dogs -407
Favorites -1,141
Focus Picks +152
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2014 at 6:21:05 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Philadelphia Phillies 145
Tampa Bay Rays 114
New York Yankees 108
Chicago Cubs 104
Texas Rangers EV
Chicago White Sox 155
New York Mets 135
San Diego Padres 114
Colorado Rockies 134
Boston Red Sox 130

Today's +130dogs:
Philadelphia Phillies 145
Chicago White Sox 155
New York Mets 135
Colorado Rockies 134
Boston Red Sox 130

Today's Focus Pick:
New York Yankees 108
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2014 at 6:34:04 AM permalink
Just the Facts.......

The highest profit level on the +130dogs was achieved on 05/30/14 with a YTD level of 3,870.

The net winnings per day for this year:
Monday +500
Tuesday +1826
Wednesday +495
Thursday +757
Friday -1393
Saturday +553
Sunday +978
Total +3716

What's it mean?
I think that we stand an awfully good chance of hitting a new YTD high today.
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2014 at 10:07:02 AM permalink
Fast Facts:
I thought that I'd breakdown the +130dog stats by week....only 2 small losing weeks. Fantastic MLB dog winnings.

Week 1 Fri-Thurs +757
Week 2 Fri-Thurs +21
Week 3 Fri-Thurs +1,027
Week 4 Fri-Thurs +676
Week 5 Fri-Thurs -14
Week 6 Fri-Thurs +36
Week 7 Fri-Thurs +805
Week 8 Fri-Thurs +354
Week 9 Fri-Thurs -159
Total +3,503
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 8th, 2014 at 10:13:07 AM permalink
A dime a play would've earned an AVERAGE of $3,892 per week. Pretty fair compensation for the risk...........
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steeldco
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June 8th, 2014 at 11:56:21 AM permalink
Any pitcher who gives up a hit to Homer Bailey and then a HOMER to Billy Hamilton should be immediately demoted to single A ball.......just sayin'
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 4:07:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Philadelphia Phillies -100
Tampa Bay Rays -100
New York Yankees -100
Chicago Cubs -100
Texas Rangers -100
Chicago White Sox -100
New York Mets -100
San Diego Padres -100
Colorado Rockies -100
Boston Red Sox +130

Yesterday's results: -770
+130dogs -270
Other dogs -500
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -100

YTD Total +1,398
+130dogs +3,446
Other dogs -907
Favorites -1,141
Focus Picks +52
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 6:38:14 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
Seattle Mariners 170
New York Yankees 117
Houston Astros 124
Oakland Athletics 106
San Francisco Giants 111


Today's 130+dogs:
Seattle Mariners 170


Today's Focus Pick:
Seattle Mariners 170
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
GWAE
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:21:35 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
Seattle Mariners 170
New York Yankees 117
Houston Astros 124
Oakland Athletics 106
San Francisco Giants 111


Today's 130+dogs:
Seattle Mariners 170


Today's Focus Pick:
Seattle Mariners 170



just curious on what lines you are showing for a few others. I am seeing some other +130s
Cubs +135
Twins +160
Astros +130
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steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:25:59 AM permalink
GWAE,
I do not pick a game just because it's a dog getting over 130. I apply many variables to first determine likelihood of a team winning. Then if it has met those criteria AND it's a dog getting 130+ then it would become a play. The Cubs today, as an example, I have as +144 but they are not a pick because they didn't come up as one using my algorithm to determine likelihood of a win.
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GWAE
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:30:08 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

GWAE,
I do not pick a game just because it's a dog getting over 130. I apply many variables to first determine likelihood of a team winning. Then if it has met those criteria AND it's a dog getting 130+ then it would become a play. The Cubs today, as an example, I have as +144 but they are not a pick because they didn't come up as one using my algorithm to determine likelihood of a win.



ahhh I got ya. I thought you were just going +130, did not realize you were still picking based on your methods.
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steeldco
steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:35:24 AM permalink
Okay. No worries. Write anytime.
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GWAE
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:36:50 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Okay. No worries. Write anytime.



I missed the Seattle play today, stupid 1pm start times.
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steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:38:42 AM permalink
Well, I don't hear the fat lady singing yet. Maybe you get lucky missing it.
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beerseason
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:45:03 AM permalink
Hey now, I got mine in today! Wish I didn't yesterday. And I woke up with a killer hangover Saturday, and missed everyone, and that was a good day I didn't need to miss.
steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:47:28 AM permalink
Ouch regarding Saturday. Sorry to hear.....particularly regarding the hangover. Killers.
Good Luck!
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beerseason
beerseason
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:50:15 AM permalink
Lol thanks! And thanks for these posts
steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 11:53:02 AM permalink
Quote: beerseason

Hey now, I got mine in today! Wish I didn't yesterday. And I woke up with a killer hangover Saturday, and missed everyone, and that was a good day I didn't need to miss.



Just a fast fact........
The average net loss for 130+dogs, when they have a losing day is -155.
The average net win for 130+dogs, when they have a winning day is +240.
Largest one day loss was -400.
Largest one day win was +643 and with 6 additional days that exceeded +400 in winnings.
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steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 1:25:20 PM permalink
Quote: beerseason

Hey now, I got mine in today!



Congrats beerseason. Nice win today!
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GWAE
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June 9th, 2014 at 1:51:08 PM permalink
here is another dumb question. If you are a $10 a unit bettor and want to bet 1 unit on a +130

Would 1 unit be $10 to win $13 or $7.69 to win $10?
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steeldco
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June 9th, 2014 at 2:06:07 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

here is another dumb question. If you are a $10 a unit bettor and want to bet 1 unit on a +130

Would 1 unit be $10 to win $13 or $7.69 to win $10?



To my way of thinking, 1 unit = $10 if a dog. Keep in mind that all I am advocating right now is playing the +130dogs. So a $10 bettor would always be betting $10. Nothing more or less.

I hope that answers your question.
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steeldco
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June 10th, 2014 at 4:17:41 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
Seattle Mariners 170
Houston Astros 124
Oakland Athletics -100
San Francisco Giants -100


Yesterday's results: +94
+130dogs +170
Other dogs -76
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +170

YTD Total +1,492
+130dogs +3,616
Other dogs -983
Favorites -1,141
Focus Picks +222
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steeldco
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June 10th, 2014 at 4:43:13 AM permalink
There's an afternoon game today.
Today's Picks:
Houston Astros 134
Chicago Cubs 148
San Diego Padres -105
Minnesota Twins 156
Boston Red Sox 105
New York Mets 110
Los Angeles Dodgers EV
Miami Marlins 115
Chicago White Sox 122
Washington Nationals 125

The +130dogs are:
Houston Astros 134
Chicago Cubs 148
Minnesota Twins 156

Focus Pick Is:
Los Angeles Dodgers EV
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
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