2014 WoV March Madness Contest

2014 WoV Men's NCAA Tournament Basketball Pool

As mentioned on a previous thread Are you doing March Madness brakets, the Wizard has given me permission to administer an NCAA tournament basketball pool this year. I asked for feedback on several topics and want to thank all those who replied.

This thread will be used to communicate any contest related information including selection summaries and scoring updates. The thread can also be used for general discussion about the contest.

Format

The traditional bracket format will be used, but the scoring is not traditional.

The earned points will be directly associated with the team seeding. In other words, each time your selected team wins, you earn the number of points of the team’s seed. For example, Michigan (#4 seed) faces North Dakota State (#13 seed). If you select Michigan and they win, you receive 4 points toward the pool standings. If you selected North Dakota State, and they win, you will receive 13 points.

The four “1st round” games that are held on Tuesday and Wednesday before the real start on Thursday will not be scored for purposes of this pool.

The complete bracket must be submitted before the bracket website (see below) cutoff on Thursday, 3/20. This is not a week to week pick selection, what you originally submit stands throughout the contest.

This format suggestion was made by SOOPOO and I agree with him that this will make the selection process more interesting and adds some additional skill to the contest.

Entry Information

Any member of the WoV is welcome to enter the pool. As the administrator, I will be submitting a bracket to be scored, but I am not entering the pool and will not be eligible for prize money.

Each entry is $15, with a limit of two entries per person. Therefore, to be clear, if you submit one entry you will have $15 at risk and if you submit two entries, $30 at risk. If you submit more than one entry please make sure to identify each submission separately.

Each participant will submit a complete bracket sometime between the pool selection show on Sunday, March 16th and the cutoff time for the website we end up using for entry and scoring. The specific website is TBD but it will most likely be Yahoo, ESPN, or CBS Sports (I’m open to hear your preferences). I have checked out CBS Sports and they have scoring system that meets the needs of this contest.

If you don’t have an account with the designated site you will need to register with that site. If you don’t wish to establish an account, you can also complete a bracket manually, scan it, and email it to me by midnight eastern on Wednesday, March 19th. If anyone falls in this category, let me know and I will provide an email address for you.

To enter, please PM me of your interest and confirm you understand that the entry fee is your responsibility (not mine, nor the Wiz’s) and I will then provide you a link to the contest.

Even though the website will handle the scoring, I'll try to post updated standings to WoV after each tournament day for all to see. At the least, I will updat WoV after each round. If there is any discrepency between the website scoring and what I described earlier, I will manually calculate the scores based on the format above.

I will not be collecting entry fee’s up front. Everyone who enters is on the honor system that they will communicate with the winner to arrange payment and will complete such payment by May 1st, 2014.

Payouts

If there are 25 or less eligible entries the payouts will be split 65% for first and 35% for second. More than 25 entries will split the prizes as such, 55% for first, 30% for second, and 15% for third.

The payout will be rounded so they are even multiples of $15. The winner’s portion will always be rounded up.

For example, 35 entries at $15 a piece is $525 in the prize pool. In this case a winner with two entries has a calculated award of $258.75 ($288.75-$30.00), second place with one entry is $142.50 ($157.50-$15.00), and third with two entries is $48.75 ($78.75-$30). With rounding, the winner in this case will get $270, second $135, and third $45.

I will then randomly assign who pays whom so that no one will have to arrange payment to more than one winner. After that, it's up to the individuals to arrange payment.

If you have any questions please don't hesitate to ask. I hope everyone has a good time with this.

when do we need to decide how many brackets we want?

Quote: GWAE

when do we need to decide how many brackets we want?

You can enter up to two brackets when you get the link. I'm leaning toward CBS Sports because they have the scoring rules that were outlined and the site has a setting to limit the number of entries per account. So you could decide all the way up to the cutoff, which for this site I think is 11:00 am eastern on Thursday, 3/20.

If anyone is interested in participating in a WoV March Madness bracket contest, please read the original post and PM me. I would love to get as many entries as possible!

Thus far, we've had an underwhelming response to a WoV March Madness bracket contest. Please PM me if you are interested.

are you looking for a minimum number of people to make this go? I am only getting in 2 this year so if this isn't going to go then I will join another.

So far the following members have indicated they are in:

beachbumbabs
michael99000
GWAE
beerseason
Knuckleball3
steeldco

Of course any of these participants can make either one or two entries.

I anticipate others will play once the brackets are announced.

Frankly, I thought there would be more interest and hadn't considered a minimum number to make this go. I think 15 entries (not people entered, but entries since an individual can enter twice) would be bare minimum to make this interesting from a financial standpoint. So, I'm making an executive decision to set that as a minimum number to make this a go. I really don't think that should be difficult and I will keep everybody updated on the participants and the number of entries.

FYI - I will have links out this morning. We will be using CBS Sports to enter and administer the brackets. I'll be off line most of the day but will forward the link to any new participants who PM me later this evening.

Good luck to everybody!

I missed SOOPOO, so we have seven who expressed interest.

Now we've had 9 confirm they want to play and had 4 complete brackets. (I still need to match up a name to a WoV handle for one entry)

beachbumbabs
michael99000
GWAE (1 entry)
beerseason
Knuckleball3
steeldco
SOOPOO
JohnnyQ (2 entries)
1arrowheaddr

FYI - When you sign up, please PM me the name you used (it doesn't have to be your real name) on CBS Sports, so I can match it up to your WoV handle.

Quote: MidwestAP

Format

The traditional bracket format will be used, but the scoring is not traditional.

The earned points will be directly associated with the team seeding. In other words, each time your selected team wins, you earn the number of points of the team’s seed. For example, Michigan (#4 seed) faces North Dakota State (#13 seed). If you select Michigan and they win, you receive 4 points toward the pool standings. If you selected North Dakota State, and they win, you will receive 13 points.

Does this mean there is no bonus for selecting winners in later rounds? E.g., if I pick Wichita State to win the national championship, I will only get 6 points total for their 6 wins? That seems like a bad format.

Or does the typical round-doubling still apply? E.g., select Louisville to win in the round of 64, earn 4 points. Select them to win in the round of 32, 8 points.

Quote: sodawater

Does this mean there is no bonus for selecting winners in later rounds? E.g., if I pick Wichita State to win the national championship, I will only get 6 points total for their 6 wins? That seems like a bad format.

Or does the typical round-doubling still apply? E.g., select Louisville to win in the round of 64, earn 4 points. Select them to win in the round of 32, 8 points.

Yes, that's what it means, points are accumulated strictly on the seed, not the round.

OK, we're up to 7 entries (2 names still need to be matched to the handle). That leaves 3 other who indicated they wanted to play but haven't entered yet. Potentially they are waiting until the play in games (errr, first round) is completed.

There is still plenty of room for more, please PM me if you are interested!!!

beachbumbabs
michael99000
GWAE (1 entry)
beerseason (1 entry)
Knuckleball3
steeldco (1 entry)
SOOPOO
JohnnyQ (2 entries)
1arrowheaddr

I am shocked. I really figured a gambling website would have much more interest. I am curious if it is the format that pushed people away.

Potentially but it's a little late in the game to change it now. It was proposed as way to make this bracket challenge different than most, and I think it accomplishes that goal. But that could be a reason the involvement is low too.

Like you, I was expecting more interest given the number of people involved in Mission's NFL football pool.

I wish I had spoken up earlier. I think the format isn't great. While I don't know if that is what is holding other back, it is a negative for me. I generally have grown tired of bracket based systems and so once that was the conclusion I decided to pass.

With the way teams advance through brackets and the seeds of the teams advancing, there is a strong chance that most folks will be eliminated after the first weekend. I would guess that it is unlikely that the contest will even be in doubt by the final four. While I don't have a problem with focusing on the early games, most people want some sweat for multiple weeks. I should have encouraged a ramping up system of the points value of a pick by round selected. Oh well, there's always next year. Also maybe we will get lucky and a couple people will have different FFs and their teams will face off and the winner won't be decided until April.

You could tweak it and still give increasing points per round, 1 for first two for second then 4 etc and have bonus points for the number seed that wins. Otherwise it makes no sense to pick top seeds. The point is to predict the outcome of the whole tournament not a couple of random upsets that overall have little bearing on the final four or national champion.

Quote: hook3670

You could tweak it and still give increasing points per round, 1 for first two for second then 4 etc and have bonus points for the number seed that wins. Otherwise it makes no sense to pick top seeds. The point is to predict the outcome of the whole tournament not a couple of random upsets that overall have little bearing on the final four or national champion.

I agree that would make some sense, and the web site would accomodate that system, but I can't change it less than 24 hours before the start of the tournament. Some individuals have already made selections based on what was presented and I can't trust they would see the change and switch strategies based on a revised system.

Lesson learned, and if we do this next year, we can make changes.

OK, we've added another person of interest and have 10 entries so far (two unmatched names). As I stated previously, I think we should have 15 entries to make this financially viable ($225 in the prize pool). I want this to go off this year, so I will make up any shortage, therefore there is $225 guaranteed for this year's contest. So, at this time there is an overlay.

If there is any additional interest, please PM me in the next 4 hours, as I will be off line after that point.

beachbumbabs (2 entries)
michael99000 (1)
GWAE (1)
beerseason (1)
Knuckleball3
steeldco (1)
SOOPOO
JohnnyQ (2)
1arrowheaddr
hook3670

I just want to apologize as I feel almost guilty for not participating, given that I run the NFL Picks Game here.

The main reason for my absence is that this not only fails to be +EV for me, but I feel as though I have an edge of greater than 2% (and probably closer to 50%) working against me. As long as at least one person in the pool can answer the following question:



I'm at a huge disadvantage!

Quote: endermike

I wish I had spoken up earlier. I think the format isn't great. While I don't know if that is what is holding other back, it is a negative for me. I generally have grown tired of bracket based systems and so once that was the conclusion I decided to pass.

With the way teams advance through brackets and the seeds of the teams advancing, there is a strong chance that most folks will be eliminated after the first weekend. I would guess that it is unlikely that the contest will even be in doubt by the final four. While I don't have a problem with focusing on the early games, most people want some sweat for multiple weeks. I should have encouraged a ramping up system of the points value of a pick by round selected. Oh well, there's always next year. Also maybe we will get lucky and a couple people will have different FFs and their teams will face off and the winner won't be decided until April.

I disagree with pretty much everything you said.

What would be a non bracket based pool, in a tournament where the entire premise is based on teams being seeded and bracketed?

Why would anyone be eliminated after the first weekend, as compared to a normal pool?

How does this pool focus on the early games? If I pick a 12 seed to go to the final 4, I'm getting 12 points for every game they win..Where do you see an emphasis on the first round. If anything. people would be less likely to be eliminated early in this format. One low seed chosen to go far that others did not choose to go far can make you up 36 or 48 points quickly (points that no one else is getting)

You seem to be saying chances are everyone will have similar Final Fours. That's the exact opposite of what this format would predicate. There's an incentive to pick many lower ranked teams to go further, as opposed to a normal pool where there really isn't.

Sorry but from reading your post it sounds as though you have never been involved in an NCAA pool, and you're just making stuff up that's total nonsense.

Quote: MidwestAP

OK, we've added another person of interest and have 10 entries so far (two unmatched names). As I stated previously, I think we should have 15 entries to make this financially viable ($225 in the prize pool). I want this to go off this year, so I will make up any shortage, therefore there is $225 guaranteed for this year's contest. So, at this time there is an overlay.

If there is any additional interest, please PM me in the next 4 hours, as I will be off line after that point.

beachbumbabs (2 entries)
michael99000 (1)
GWAE (1)
beerseason (1)
Knuckleball3
steeldco (1)
SOOPOO
JohnnyQ (2)
1arrowheaddr
hook3670

That is quite generous of you. I am happy to play for the current prize poll so If I win I will not be accepting any money from you. Too bad for you that I suck.

Quote: MidwestAP

Yes, that's what it means, points are accumulated strictly on the seed, not the round.

I like this twist in the format !

This format was very flawed. The best strategy would be to simply pick the worst seed in every game and every round. Not increasing points for later rounds completely devalues all the good seeds. You can earn twice as many points for picking one 12 to win one game than picking a 1 seed to win the entire tournament.

The only proper way to run any bracket pool is that each round has to be worth an equal amount of possible points. Since there are half as many games in each successive round, that requires doubling the value of games in each successive round.

I have seen formats where the team's seed is multiplied by the round's baseline points, and that is also fair. Therefore if you pick a 12 to win in round 1, it would be worth 12 points. If you pick it to win in round 2, 24 pts. If you pick a 1 seed to win the national championship game, that final game would be worth 32 points.

Quote: sodawater

This format was very flawed. The best strategy would be to simply pick the worst seed in every game and every round. Not increasing points for later rounds completely devalues all the good seeds.

Really? You actually think you should pick number 16 to win a game? I wish I was competing against you! You wanted the 15's? How did that work out....? And what do you do in the second round when neither your 13 nor 12 are available? If you feel the 11 has a greater than 6/17 chance of winning, then it was a good pick. That's much more complicated than just picking the better team.... What if the 8 was a 2 point favorite over the 9..... who do you take? This method of determining a winner is SO much more interesting than just picking the better teams....

By the way, my proposed system DID increase points for the later rounds.... If your 4 wins a 3rd round game you get 12 points, not 4. I guess MidWestAP chose to alter my proposal, but its his game!

Quote: sodawater

This format was very flawed. The best strategy would be to simply pick the worst seed in every game and every round. Not increasing points for later rounds completely devalues all the good seeds. You can earn twice as many points for picking one 12 to win one game than picking a 1 seed to win the entire tournament.

The only proper way to run any bracket pool is that each round has to be worth an equal amount of possible points. Since there are half as many games in each successive round, that requires doubling the value of games in each successive round.

I have seen formats where the team's seed is multiplied by the round's baseline points, and that is also fair. Therefore if you pick a 12 to win in round 1, it would be worth 12 points. If you pick it to win in round 2, 24 pts. If you pick a 1 seed to win the national championship game, that final game would be worth 32 points.

I, just to check this, did 2 brackets in the current challenge. One was identical to my best guesses I put into the billion dollar bracket, which tended heavily towards higher seeds. The other was selecting the 1 and 2 seeds, and otherwise the lower seed of the two to take advantage of the weighting.

My best guesses are in 3rd place, with 25 correct picks and 112 points. Possible total points left available 52 picks correct and 173 points available.

My seed weighting picks are in 5th place, with 17 correct picks for 104 points. Possible total points left available 38 picks correct and 160 points available.

Despite the fact that I suck at this, I think my results demonstrate the validity of the methodology.

I'm not so sure this method floated well. While I'm not in a position to criticize, I would point out that skewing the points to certain rounds has a benefit. Tie breakers could also be altered.

For example I have floated this on the smn for 7 or 8 years...

Round 1....1 point each
Round 2....3 points each
Round 3....5 points each
Round 4....8 points each
Round 5..14 points each
CHAMP.....24 points

ROUND #1
BONUS 1 16/16 LEFT side 9 points
.................16/16 RIGHT side 9 points
..................ALL 32 27 points
.................15/16 either side 1 point
.................15/16 BOTH SIDES 3 points

ROUND #2
BONUS 2 8/8 LEFT side 3 points
.................8/8 RIGHT side 3 points
.................ALL 16 9 points

COMBINED ROUNDS #3, 4 and 5
BONUS #3 14/14 6 points
....................13/14 1 point

CHAMPION TIE-BREAKERS
#1 TIE-BREAKER is Margin of Victory, if unresolved (both are over, or both the same) then
#2 TIE-BREAKER "How many teams in this Tournament will score 80 points or more and LOSE ?"

Complicated but pretty interesting. I think I would prefer the bonuses broken out by division (4) of them, but it's an interesting idea no matter which way you scored it.

I think bonuses are a horrible idea. If I got 32/32 I get 27 bonus points. 2nd place goes 28/32 and gets no points so the are essentially eliminated already. It is much more entertaining to have it come down to the final 4 instead of being decided by the sweet 16.

Quote: michael99000

Sorry but from reading your post it sounds as though you have never been involved in an NCAA pool, and you're just making stuff up that's total nonsense.

Wow, you just poked the bear. I have been doing pools for 20 years now. I grew up in NC. Suffice to say I am at a level where bracket pools bore me.

Quote: michael99000

I disagree with pretty much everything you said.

What would be a non bracket based pool, in a tournament where the entire premise is based on teams being seeded and bracketed?

As I posted about a month ago there are many non-bracket ways to run such a pool. I suggest you do some research before you "come correct" or in this case incorrect.

Quote: michael99000

Why would anyone be eliminated after the first weekend, as compared to a normal pool? How does this pool focus on the early games? If I pick a 12 seed to go to the final 4, I'm getting 12 points for every game they win..Where do you see an emphasis on the first round. If anything. people would be less likely to be eliminated early in this format.

Think about it. 48 games are played in the first weekend, 15 there after. Most high number seeds are eliminated by the end of the first weekend so people focusing on chalk will have a hard time coming back unless they properly identify a major underdog who runs to the final four. Similarly, few people focusing on upsets will rarely earn much after the first weekend, seeing as most such teams lose sooner rather than later (they are underdogs for a reason).

Quote: michael99000

One low seed chosen to go far that others did not choose to go far can make you up 36 or 48 points quickly (points that no one else is getting)

If the goal is just who can pick the Cinderella team that is a fine contest. However, that is probably not what the goal of this contest is. I would guess the goal of this contest is to reward gambling acumen and CBB knowledge.

Quote: michael99000

You seem to be saying chances are everyone will have similar Final Fours. That's the exact opposite of what this format would predicate. There's an incentive to pick many lower ranked teams to go further, as opposed to a normal pool where there really isn't.

I'm not saying they will have similar FFs. I am saying the odds of getting many points from the FF are slim. Particularly, you will not get enough points from the teams you have make it to the last weekend overcome deficits built up from the first weekend. There is nothing wrong with a contest which focuses on the first weekend, but without scoring ramps, the math is undeniable. 48 games is the vast majority of the tournament; and particularly it is the vast majority of the scoring since high number teams make deep (>3 rounds) runs infrequently.

Any update on the standings to date ?

It'll probably have to come from MidwestAP: most of us are there under our real names, so I'm not willing to post what I'm seeing because I don't know who's who. However, you're in 5th and 9th, since you did use JohnnyQ - your 2 bracket is the higher one - and I'm in 6th and 10th. One guy is 20 points ahead of the field in first and looks unstoppable. If you go to your bracket, then look in the upper left, it says "group home" and you can get the standings from there, also you can click on a person's name there and see their bracket.

I apologize for the extended absense. Been away all weekend. I'll post updated standings later today.

In defense of the pool scoring, it was actually an exercise less in picking better teams (although that still comes into play), but more in using the math of how seeds historically do against each other. Not all brackets are alike nor need to score the same. But, I will concede we may have had some more players if we had used a more traditional scoring system.

Note, I will ask for suggestions for next year, but am interested in running a handicapping pool, similar to what the LVH runs in the fall for football.

OK, the updated standings are as follows

Name	Score	Best Score
1arrowheaddr	158	188
SOOPOO	139	169
MidwestAP*	137	186
michael99000	128	150
JohnnyQ #2	123	154
beachbumbabs #1	122	131
steeldco	117	152
beerseason	112	124
JohnnyQ #1	110	127
beachbumbabs	109	118
GWAE	96	124

* I'm inelible to win but put a pick in anyhow for fun

By the way, if someone had selected the worse seed every round, they would be sitting at 125 points (but still a possible best score of 228). [Edit - This is inaccurate, it someone had selected the worse seed every round they would have finished at 91 points and had no chance to improve once the sweet sixteen was set. This is because all the 13-16 seeds would have knocked off all the 9-12 seeds in the round of 32]

Updated standings:

Name	Score	Best Score
1arrowheaddr	164	164
SOOPOO	150	152
MidwestAP*	140	142
JohnnyQ #2	132	134
michael99000	130	130
steeldco	128	129
beachbumbabs #1	127	129
beerseason	118	120
JohnnyQ #1	117	117
beachbumbabs #2	114	114
GWAE	100	100

There isn't any suspense going into the last weekend, which actually isn't any different than one of my other traditional pools of the same size.

1arrowheaddr is the winner, and SOOPOO finished second! Congrats to both.

They both had one entry, so the prize distribution of $225 is split as follows.

1arrowheaddr ($225*0.65-$15) = $131.25. Rounded up to the next increment of $15 totals to $135.
SOOPOO ($225*0.35-$15) = $63.75. Rounded down to $60.

I will wait to post they payment responsibilities until early next week in case there is any question/issue with the results.

Thank you to those who chose to play! As I posted earlier, I'd be interested in administering a true handicapping tournament format next year (ala the LVH football pool) if the Wizard is agreeable to it and there is interest, but more on that in 2015!

Congrats to 1arrow and SOOPOO! I totally rocked this...not. lol..hey, hey!

Quote: MidwestAP

Updated standings:

Name	Score	Best Score
1arrowheaddr	164	164
SOOPOO	150	152
MidwestAP*	140	142
JohnnyQ #2	132	134
michael99000	130	130
steeldco	128	129
beachbumbabs #1	127	129
beerseason	118	120
JohnnyQ #1	117	117
beachbumbabs #2	114	114
GWAE	100	100

There isn't any suspense going into the last weekend, which actually isn't any different than one of my other traditional pools of the same size.

1arrowheaddr is the winner, and SOOPOO finished second! Congrats to both.

They both had one entry, so the prize distribution of $225 is split as follows.

1arrowheaddr ($225*0.65-$15) = $131.25. Rounded up to the next increment of $15 totals to $135.
SOOPOO ($225*0.35-$15) = $63.75. Rounded down to $60.

I will wait to post they payment responsibilities until early next week in case there is any question/issue with the results.

Thank you to those who chose to play! As I posted earlier, I'd be interested in administering a true handicapping tournament format next year (ala the LVH football pool) if the Wizard is agreeable to it and there is interest, but more on that in 2015!

I am very happy with my finish! But just to be clear, this was not scored as I proposed. In case anyone wants to do it next year, the seed is multiplied by the round to get the number of points. So the final four games have a multiplier of 5, and the final game has a multiplier of 6. By doing so it adds importance to getting the final four teams, as opposed to BBB's technique of just picking upsets in the first few rounds. And I would like to extend my thanks to Midwest AP for doing this pool. It is the first time in my many pools that I think I even came in the top half!

Quote: SOOPOO

I am very happy with my finish! But just to be clear, this was not scored as I proposed. In case anyone wants to do it next year, the seed is multiplied by the round to get the number of points. So the final four games have a multiplier of 5, and the final game has a multiplier of 6. By doing so it adds importance to getting the final four teams, as opposed to BBB's technique of just picking upsets in the first few rounds. And I would like to extend my thanks to Midwest AP for doing this pool. It is the first time in my many pools that I think I even came in the top half!

I admit I did mis-read your initial proposal, but by the time I realized it, I thought it was too late to change the format. One of these days, I'll try to score the contest using your proposed format just out of curiosity. I would like to point out that just picking upsets didn't really work in this format either.

Thanks for playing and congrats on your finish!

A 7 seed playing an 8th seed for all the marbles. Who knew?

Lexington was a mad house last night......fireworks, gunshots and burning couches

Congrats 1arrowheaddr!!

How much do I owe you and is PayPal OK with you?

I'm waiting to pay pending payment instructions also. Would hate to be taken as a non-payer.

I'm ready to pay as well, awaiting further instruction.

I'll get it posted tomorrow morning, some are paying 1arrowheaddr and some are paying SOOPOO

I need to send mine by mail so if either of these 2 don't want mail payments please say so now so I can possibly be put on the other list.

Quote: GWAE

I need to send mine by mail so if either of these 2 don't want mail payments please say so now so I can possibly be put on the other list.

If you need me to pay for you via paypal and then can send me the check I don't mind. Just offering if it comes down to that.

Quote: beerseason

If you need me to pay for you via paypal and then can send me the check I don't mind. Just offering if it comes down to that.

ok that will work. Thank you for the offer.

I am banned from Paypal because of someone ripping me off in 2004ish. I used to sell laptops on Ebay and someone bought 2 of them and then said they never got them so paypal refunded their money and made my account negative. I even had a tracking number but paypal still sided with them.

No one voiced any issues with the final results, so congrats to both 1arrowheaddr and SOOPOO!

The following payment should be arranged to the two winners. Please use PM to make contact.

1arrowheaddr
beachbumbabs $30
JohnnyQ $30
MidwestAP $45
beerseason $15
GWAE $15

SOOPOO
MidwestAP $30
steeldco $15
michael99000 $15

Please try to complete payment (or at least make an agreeable arrangement) by April 30th.

Thanks for playing. If the Wizard is agreeable, we'll try again next year with a new format.