Huge Line Move, Betting Public Completely Wrong
January 13th, 2014 at 6:19:04 PM
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College basketball is my favorite sport by far and I have had quite a bit of success betting on it over the past few years. This year has been beyond outstanding. In general, I am always betting against the public, but lately I have found some fairly large line moves that indicated "wise guys" may be on to something.
For example, Texas State vs. UL-Lafayette (an added game) opened in most places with UL-Laf -9 to -10. Throughout the day the line was pounded down, in favor of Texas State, to about UL-Laf -7. I consider 3 point moves on a game to be a fairly significant move. My review of the game indicated that UL-Laf should in fact be the clear favorite. I doubled checked the injury report, but nothing. I highly doubt that the general betting public was forcing this line to move, the general betting public probably didn't even know Texas State had a Division I team. Therefore, I concluded that the "wise guys" had to have some angle on the game. However, I stuck with my guns and laid a significant wager, by my modest means, on UL-Laf.
The game was never close, UL-Laf was up early and had pushed their halftime lead to 16. Second half UL-Laf stayed ahead by about 20 and finished on a nice run to win by 23. Now, if this was just one game, I would understand, but this has to be about fifth time this year that a significant line move has occurred and the betting majority was just flat out completely wrong. I don't always follow "wise guys," but in games like this where information is limited a significant move like this is usually a pretty good indicator that the sports books may have missed something.
Another example, on Friday Monmouth played Niagara with Niagara opening as low as a 5 point favorite. By mid afternoon the line had increased to Niagara -7. My stats indicated that these teams were very evenly matched, so I took the points. Monmouth never trailed and won easily by 11.
I am by NO means implying that I have some secret formula that gives me easy winners, but it just seems more than odd that these huge lines moves have resulted in complete blowouts in favor of the other team. What was unusual about today was that even after making my bet the line still decreased by another point and half.
Anyone know of some other factors I may not be considering that may be driving the line movement besides the "action" on the game? Hopefully I can continue to find winners, its always nice cashing winners.
For example, Texas State vs. UL-Lafayette (an added game) opened in most places with UL-Laf -9 to -10. Throughout the day the line was pounded down, in favor of Texas State, to about UL-Laf -7. I consider 3 point moves on a game to be a fairly significant move. My review of the game indicated that UL-Laf should in fact be the clear favorite. I doubled checked the injury report, but nothing. I highly doubt that the general betting public was forcing this line to move, the general betting public probably didn't even know Texas State had a Division I team. Therefore, I concluded that the "wise guys" had to have some angle on the game. However, I stuck with my guns and laid a significant wager, by my modest means, on UL-Laf.
The game was never close, UL-Laf was up early and had pushed their halftime lead to 16. Second half UL-Laf stayed ahead by about 20 and finished on a nice run to win by 23. Now, if this was just one game, I would understand, but this has to be about fifth time this year that a significant line move has occurred and the betting majority was just flat out completely wrong. I don't always follow "wise guys," but in games like this where information is limited a significant move like this is usually a pretty good indicator that the sports books may have missed something.
Another example, on Friday Monmouth played Niagara with Niagara opening as low as a 5 point favorite. By mid afternoon the line had increased to Niagara -7. My stats indicated that these teams were very evenly matched, so I took the points. Monmouth never trailed and won easily by 11.
I am by NO means implying that I have some secret formula that gives me easy winners, but it just seems more than odd that these huge lines moves have resulted in complete blowouts in favor of the other team. What was unusual about today was that even after making my bet the line still decreased by another point and half.
Anyone know of some other factors I may not be considering that may be driving the line movement besides the "action" on the game? Hopefully I can continue to find winners, its always nice cashing winners.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:23:10 PM
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Congratulations on the success your having. The only think I can think of is inside information - kind of like the stock market. Someone from the inside starts to spread the word that a certain team is going to win because he or she received some kind of information that a certain team is using a different strategy etc.. If the information snowballs - a sufficient amount of money can go down on one side therefore moving the line.
January 13th, 2014 at 10:31:18 PM
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And good information can lose too. LOL Joe Namath left his knee brace in New York for a game. Naturally, Jets won big. Was in the Brig Bar on Pulaski Hiway when Bob Turley ( Oriole pitcher ) was still drunk at 7am. Bar closed at 2am, but Irv the bookie owned it and placed big bet on Yankees. Mantle and Maris were tearing up the league that year. Turley had to be carried to his car and driven to stadium for Sunday day game. So, of course, Orioles won 1-0 against Whitey Ford.
Footnote: Next year big trade to Yankees. Bob Turley and a lesser pitcher named Don Larsen. Turley never was as good again. Larsen pitched perfect world series game.
Footnote: Next year big trade to Yankees. Bob Turley and a lesser pitcher named Don Larsen. Turley never was as good again. Larsen pitched perfect world series game.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 13th, 2014 at 10:39:28 PM
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Congratulations.
Either the original odds makers who came out with the lines were wrong but had some actual information or there was someone with LOTS of money brewing rumors and hitting key books with big bets.
I would think that Lines pretty much settle out and it takes EMOTION to change them.
There are two types of EMOTION: one is FAN emotion often exemplified by GEOGRAPHY,
The other type of EMOTION comes straight from the horse's mouth: Inside Dope, Track Sightings, The Quarterback got coked up last night and it was No Neck Louis from Cleveland who hired the Bimbo What Gave Him The Coke. The Mob's Moving Big On This So Get In On It Fast.
It takes a big purse and lots of rumor mongering some facts of which would normally be expected to surface but if anyone can drive a line down and then bet on the Usual Results, it will be profitable.
Either the original odds makers who came out with the lines were wrong but had some actual information or there was someone with LOTS of money brewing rumors and hitting key books with big bets.
I would think that Lines pretty much settle out and it takes EMOTION to change them.
There are two types of EMOTION: one is FAN emotion often exemplified by GEOGRAPHY,
The other type of EMOTION comes straight from the horse's mouth: Inside Dope, Track Sightings, The Quarterback got coked up last night and it was No Neck Louis from Cleveland who hired the Bimbo What Gave Him The Coke. The Mob's Moving Big On This So Get In On It Fast.
It takes a big purse and lots of rumor mongering some facts of which would normally be expected to surface but if anyone can drive a line down and then bet on the Usual Results, it will be profitable.
January 14th, 2014 at 9:35:53 AM
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Is it possible that the guys who run these sports handicapping hotlines give out wrong info?
For example you always hear on the radio "call 1-800- xxx xxxx and get my lock of the day" ... So 100 morons call the number and think they get some great info and bam next thing you know a ton of money is on Texas State. Wise guys behind the phone line see the Vegas lines artificially inflated and bet the other side to clean up. Has this type of stuff ever happened?
For example you always hear on the radio "call 1-800- xxx xxxx and get my lock of the day" ... So 100 morons call the number and think they get some great info and bam next thing you know a ton of money is on Texas State. Wise guys behind the phone line see the Vegas lines artificially inflated and bet the other side to clean up. Has this type of stuff ever happened?
January 14th, 2014 at 10:01:22 AM
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This may have happened years ago when Mike Warren had so many suckers he would tie up the Pikesville phone exchange on Saturdays. So many incoming calls, nobody could call out. But those days are long gone.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 14th, 2014 at 10:23:36 AM
permalink
My opinion on basketball is that since the games are often posted only 8 hours or so before the game starts...late changes can be just the general publics money coming in, The general public who dont know any better love teasm with the name 'texas" in them. They never heard of "monmouth". Also because there are so many games to spread money over, a smaller amount of money can change a spread .
College BB is the worst for me to handiapp so I applaude you for having a research system. I have yet to hot on one.
plus with the easy access to bet sports these days, and the impact that one player can make on a college basketball game......I am skeptical about some average to below average players, playing on average to below average teams, being involved in point shaving. You know..you are supposed to lose by 12, and you make sure that you DO lose by 12 or more. No longer does the man have to appear on campus wearing the trenchcoat to "make an offer you cant refuse". It doesnt take an overt laydown job to make sure your team loses by 12 instead of by 9. just 2 missed free throws, maybe one errant pass.....is enough to do the job.
Just an account under a second cousins name that they let you use is enough to prevent any tracing.
I say "avwerage to belwo average players" because above average players have hopes of the NBA or D league, or overseas paing jobs and wouldnt want to jeopardize that. So I would think this isnt going on at DUke. or Syracuse.. and I say average to below average players meaning that they may be the best player on their team....but in the grand scheme of things they are not elite enough compared to other palyers across the league.
College BB is the worst for me to handiapp so I applaude you for having a research system. I have yet to hot on one.
plus with the easy access to bet sports these days, and the impact that one player can make on a college basketball game......I am skeptical about some average to below average players, playing on average to below average teams, being involved in point shaving. You know..you are supposed to lose by 12, and you make sure that you DO lose by 12 or more. No longer does the man have to appear on campus wearing the trenchcoat to "make an offer you cant refuse". It doesnt take an overt laydown job to make sure your team loses by 12 instead of by 9. just 2 missed free throws, maybe one errant pass.....is enough to do the job.
Just an account under a second cousins name that they let you use is enough to prevent any tracing.
I say "avwerage to belwo average players" because above average players have hopes of the NBA or D league, or overseas paing jobs and wouldnt want to jeopardize that. So I would think this isnt going on at DUke. or Syracuse.. and I say average to below average players meaning that they may be the best player on their team....but in the grand scheme of things they are not elite enough compared to other palyers across the league.
January 15th, 2014 at 10:30:26 PM
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So I just wanted to give you guys an update on these huge moves, yet the public is completely wrong.
On Monday, I bet Creighton who opened up -13 to -13.5, playing Butler, near tipoff I grabbed Creighton -10.5. It was never close to say the least. Creighton was up over 20 at halftime and won by 28.
On Tuesday, I bet Northeastern who opened up a 1 point dog, the line reached as high as +5, I was able to grab +4.5. While I can't say this one was an absolute blowout, Northeastern was up 10 at half, James Madison made it close in the second half, but never led and Northeastern won by 5.
Also on Tuesday, I grabbed Cal who opened up -9.5 and was bet down to -8.5 (not a huge line move), but the stats did not support the move at all. Cal was up 13 at half and won going away by 26.
I have bet college basketball consistently since moving here four years ago. Maybe I never noticed this before, but I doubt it.
On Monday, I bet Creighton who opened up -13 to -13.5, playing Butler, near tipoff I grabbed Creighton -10.5. It was never close to say the least. Creighton was up over 20 at halftime and won by 28.
On Tuesday, I bet Northeastern who opened up a 1 point dog, the line reached as high as +5, I was able to grab +4.5. While I can't say this one was an absolute blowout, Northeastern was up 10 at half, James Madison made it close in the second half, but never led and Northeastern won by 5.
Also on Tuesday, I grabbed Cal who opened up -9.5 and was bet down to -8.5 (not a huge line move), but the stats did not support the move at all. Cal was up 13 at half and won going away by 26.
I have bet college basketball consistently since moving here four years ago. Maybe I never noticed this before, but I doubt it.
January 16th, 2014 at 12:25:39 AM
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Quote: LarrySMy opinion on basketball is that since the games are often posted only 8 hours or so before the game starts...late changes can be just the general publics money coming in, The general public who dont know any better love teasm with the name 'texas" in them. They never heard of "monmouth". Also because there are so many games to spread money over, a smaller amount of money can change a spread .
College BB is the worst for me to handiapp so I applaude you for having a research system. I have yet to hot on one.
plus with the easy access to bet sports these days, and the impact that one player can make on a college basketball game......I am skeptical about some average to below average players, playing on average to below average teams, being involved in point shaving. You know..you are supposed to lose by 12, and you make sure that you DO lose by 12 or more. No longer does the man have to appear on campus wearing the trenchcoat to "make an offer you cant refuse". It doesnt take an overt laydown job to make sure your team loses by 12 instead of by 9. just 2 missed free throws, maybe one errant pass.....is enough to do the job.
Just an account under a second cousins name that they let you use is enough to prevent any tracing.
I say "avwerage to belwo average players" because above average players have hopes of the NBA or D league, or overseas paing jobs and wouldnt want to jeopardize that. So I would think this isnt going on at DUke. or Syracuse.. and I say average to below average players meaning that they may be the best player on their team....but in the grand scheme of things they are not elite enough compared to other palyers across the league.
That's not how point shaving works Larry. 1. The underdog would never be asked to do the point shaving and 2. Point shaving never involves a player being asked to actually lose a game outright.
Instead.. A key member of the team that's favored is asked to win the game BUT not cover the spread. This is much less obvious than an actual upset and the player involved is less likely to feel he's wronged his teammates coaches or school.. Because they still won the game which is all that matters to them anyway.
January 16th, 2014 at 3:29:06 AM
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Quote: BuzzardAnd good information can lose too. LOL Joe Namath left his knee brace in New York for a game. Naturally, Jets won big. Was in the Brig Bar on Pulaski Hiway when Bob Turley ( Oriole pitcher ) was still drunk at 7am. Bar closed at 2am, but Irv the bookie owned it and placed big bet on Yankees. Mantle and Maris were tearing up the league that year. Turley had to be carried to his car and driven to stadium for Sunday day game. So, of course, Orioles won 1-0 against Whitey Ford.
That's hilarious. Of course, what you might not have known--was Mickey and Billy and Whitey were out drunk that night too.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
January 16th, 2014 at 8:05:59 AM
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Quote: michael99000That's not how point shaving works Larry. 1. The underdog would never be asked to do the point shaving and 2. Point shaving never involves a player being asked to actually lose a game outright.
Instead.. A key member of the team that's favored is asked to win the game BUT not cover the spread. This is much less obvious than an actual upset and the player involved is less likely to feel he's wronged his teammates coaches or school.. Because they still won the game which is all that matters to them anyway.
what do you mean "thats not how point shaving works'???
Is there only one way for a poor college student who has no possible pro career to make money? The sports betting machinery and therefore money making machinery doesnt need the man in the trenchcoat anymore to make "the point shaving rules:". A student athelete in basketball can eliminate the middleman and make money.i use basketball because one player can make a difference in covering or not covering.
So if everyone has access to online gambling. And you are a player on teams like hofstra, sacramento state,......and your team is not going anywhere, and you are not going to the pros......when facing a better team where you think your team is going to lose anyway....why not make money on making sure your team does not cover. Student atheletes are caught all the time breaking the rules and accepting money or giftfs or selling their jerseys on the more well known teams in orderto make some pocket moeny. What about the lesser schools who dont have local business supoorters...no free pizza, no free jeans, no extra pocket money slipped into their hands, no free tatoos, no one willing to buy their uniform.
Is it such a stretch of the imagination that certain players might be making some money on the side.
Maybe its the winner shaving the score making sure they dont cover, maybe its the loser making sure they dont cover.....But there is the possibility that someone on the floor might have a bet down on the game overseas....cutting out the middleman of having the man in the trenchcoat make the offer and give a small cut of the action.
when you are your own man in the trenchcoat...when you decide you want to make some money off of your team....it doesnt take alot to do it. If i can think of it, I amn sure some young enerprising young student BB players can figure it out as well,.
I am not talking about games where the lines are 4 or 5 where the teams are relatively equal and either can be expected to win. I am talking about the double digit lines where the player says...whats the difference if we lose by 12 or 14.
But then again, with the power of money, and the insignificance of some of these games..i really wouldnt be surprised if a player threw a game here or there either...it wouldnt be a shock.
years ago there was a point shaving scandal I think in arizona involving top players. who had pro career possibilities. It seems money can make a difference
January 16th, 2014 at 8:34:25 AM
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Great post LarryS. Of course games are being being "gamed". The players know the line, most players are poor and a fair percentage come from the ghettos or the fringes. Way too easy for a kid who has never had money to lay down.
On a side note, I knew coach Frieder at ASU. I was talking to him at the MGM in Vegas when the point shaving scandal was reported on ESPN on the big screen in the sports book. He turned white and just walked away.
Frieder was a big time blackjack AP. Super smart guy.
On a side note, I knew coach Frieder at ASU. I was talking to him at the MGM in Vegas when the point shaving scandal was reported on ESPN on the big screen in the sports book. He turned white and just walked away.
Frieder was a big time blackjack AP. Super smart guy.
Each day is better than the next
January 16th, 2014 at 8:49:23 AM
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In some sports coaches have options to call plays that may counter the line.
Players are poor but even if they have a shot at the big bucks there is always that nagging coach to contend with.
Foreign sports, foreign coaches and foreign umpires must be a real joke especially when the local "trenchcoat guys" don't wear anything but the latest styles and drive anything but the most expensive cars and don't make any deals that are negotiable.
That Chinese couple that got truly cut up over a protracted period of time in a Mayfair apartment are rumored to have missed a cell phone call at the "end" of a live game that was two minutes more live in some foreign country. It seems millions were riding on the "straight dope" from the field and that is not the time to have a cell phone battery problem if you want to stay alive or if you want your dying to be quick.
Players are poor but even if they have a shot at the big bucks there is always that nagging coach to contend with.
Foreign sports, foreign coaches and foreign umpires must be a real joke especially when the local "trenchcoat guys" don't wear anything but the latest styles and drive anything but the most expensive cars and don't make any deals that are negotiable.
That Chinese couple that got truly cut up over a protracted period of time in a Mayfair apartment are rumored to have missed a cell phone call at the "end" of a live game that was two minutes more live in some foreign country. It seems millions were riding on the "straight dope" from the field and that is not the time to have a cell phone battery problem if you want to stay alive or if you want your dying to be quick.
January 16th, 2014 at 8:57:22 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffIn some sports coaches have options to call plays that may counter the line.
Yeah a coach out of the blue can decide to take the air out of the ball an really toy with the totals players.
In the movie Color of Money, Tom Cruise (don't remember his characters name) dogged 3 or 4 shots to allow Newman to win the match. A player or players dogging a few shots in a game can swing the PSO. Or not playing defense.....
Each day is better than the next
January 16th, 2014 at 9:22:57 AM
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Quote: mickeycrimmThat's hilarious. Of course, what you might not have known--was Mickey and Billy and Whitey were out drunk that night too.
Gee, Mickey never drank I am sure. Or else it would have been in the newspapers back then. Oh My, how things have changed.
Shed not for her
the bitter tear
Nor give the heart
to vain regret
Tis but the casket
that lies here,
The gem that filled it
Sparkles yet
January 16th, 2014 at 9:24:42 AM
permalink
Quote: treetopbuddyYeah a coach out of the blue can decide to take the air out of the ball an really toy with the totals players.
In the movie Color of Money, Tom Cruise (don't remember his characters name) dogged 3 or 4 shots to allow Newman to win the match. A player or players dogging a few shots in a game can swing the PSO. Or not playing defense.....
good point.may thats why in college baskets, the lesser games have no totals. The coach can bet the under and slow the game down.
Its not out of the realm of possibility. Pete Rose bet as a manager.
And the excuse that...well he only bet on his team is no consolation. WHY/
Because lets say he really liked the pitching matchup tomorrows game. So he plans to bet on tomorrows game. Well TODAY he doesnt go to his ACE in the bullpen to finish thegame because he wants to conserve the pitcher to be available tomorrow for when he is betting....putting todays game in jeopardy
January 16th, 2014 at 9:40:14 AM
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Quote: FleaStiffThat Chinese couple that got truly cut up over a protracted period of time in a Mayfair apartment are rumored to have missed a cell phone call at the "end" of a live game that was two minutes more live in some foreign country. It seems millions were riding on the "straight dope" from the field and that is not the time to have a cell phone battery problem if you want to stay alive or if you want your dying to be quick.
It was a Newcastle apartment... much less glamorous:
http://metro.co.uk/2009/04/27/chinese-students-murdered-for-betting-scam-cash-60456/
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 16th, 2014 at 9:56:07 AM
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Quote: treetopbuddyIn the movie Color of Money, Tom Cruise (don't remember his characters name) dogged 3 or 4 shots to allow Newman to win the match. A player or players dogging a few shots in a game can swing the PSO. Or not playing defense.....
I met Ronnie Allen in Laughlin in the late nineties. At one time he was the best One Pocket pool player in the world. He told me some stories. A Seattle millionaire once hired him and U. J. Pucket to go to Seattle and teach him the finer arts of pool and pool hustling. They spent a week with him. The guy says "Let's go out and hustle some pool. I'll back you guys." Ronnie called Kim Davenport and told him what pool hall they would be in. They dumped $20,000 of the millionaire's money to Davenport then split it amongst themselves. The next day the millionaire dropped them off at the airport. U.J. Puckett told the millionaire "This is the last thing I'm going to teach you. Never trust anybody."
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
January 16th, 2014 at 10:00:53 AM
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Quote: LarryS Pete Rose bet as a manager. And the excuse that...well he only bet on his team is no consolation. WHY/Because lets say he really liked the pitching matchup tomorrows game. So he plans to bet on tomorrows game. Well TODAY he doesnt go to his ACE in the bullpen to finish the game because he wants to conserve the pitcher to be available tomorrow for when he is betting....putting todays game in jeopardy[/q
I think the most valuable information the bookie could use would be if Rose said "No, I don't want to bet today.""Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
