Kentucky Derby 2014
I'm a horse racing nut and can't wait for the Derby. I find that speculating and watching a horse develop over the next 5 months as well as dabbling in the futures market either on the tote or with Wynn or LVH is about as much fun as you can have with your clothes on.
Does anybody share my passion?
Dos anybody have an early favorite? Does anybody have a ticket yet?
I have a small wager with LVH on Mexicoma at 125/1. I know the syndicate owner quite well and they think they have a live horse. He isn't as good as Animial Kingdom but still a very decent 2 turn colt.
Quote: TomspurI don't know if this is the correct area of this thread bu I couldn't find a horse racing section so yeah, there's that :)
I'm a horse racing nut and can't wait for the Derby. I find that speculating and watching a horse develop over the next 5 months as well as dabbling in the futures market either on the tote or with Wynn or LVH is about as much fun as you can have with your clothes on.
Does anybody share my passion?
Dos anybody have an early favorite? Does anybody have a ticket yet?
I have a small wager with LVH on Mexicoma at 125/1. I know the syndicate owner quite well and they think they have a live horse. He isn't as good as Animial Kingdom but still a very decent 2 turn colt.
I not a huge fan but am familiar with the sport. I use to live in Maryland and loved betting on the pacers and trotters because they ran at night. Freestate raceway (closed) and Rosecroft.
What I find unusual about this sport is the biggest race in the industry are for 3 yr old youngsters barely mature. In other sports, its veterans with years of fans behind them rooting them on for the championship. Other sports, greatness is measured by how many times you have won the yearly championship. At the Derby, its a new set of youngsters every year. Also when we have a superstar horse, the horse is retired immediately. No following the horse through a long career of winning races. As a sports fan, its harder to follow because no continuity.
Why? because its the only 20 horse race all year. With that comes chaos, with chaos comes bumping and positionng problems. And with that some unlikely results ensue at big payouts.
I do this sometimes for a 6 horse tri for the belmont for 120. I did this and won 10k 10 years ago when war emblam tripped at the gate.
I am not good enough to pick a winner out of 20. I definately dont do futures as horses get hurt and get scratched.
I probably wont look at it till post positions and past performances are out.
As for 3 year olds being hyped, it has always been considered that the 3 year olds are the "classic generation". They are young enough to be precocious and just old enough to develop some stamina. I guess it could also be a case of history taking preference over common sense?
Loads of 3 year olds break down during their 3 year old career and gets retired before their time. I have a theory here.
It is well known lore that it is very difficult for a horse to win the Derby if he hasn't raced as a 2 year old BUT racing horses at two places unecessary strain on still maturing bones.
In my opinion if a horse is good enough he can win without having a 2 year old run. That tradition is simply stupid if you ask me but most horsemen in the US swear by it......
Something about fools and horses? :)
That is absolutely the correct way of looking at the race, specially since these still maturing horses have never raced that far, the track is normally sloppy and they have never encountered a full field of 20. Makes for VERY interesting racing.
Still, nothing beats the thrill (for me at least) of finding a 70 to 1 shot (Animal Kingdom) and having a few $$$ on at that price, then 3 months later standing in the queue :)
We all have our vices I guess
Quote: TomspurI don't know if this is the correct area of this thread bu I couldn't find a horse racing section so yeah, there's that :)
I'm a horse racing nut and can't wait for the Derby. I find that speculating and watching a horse develop over the next 5 months as well as dabbling in the futures market either on the tote or with Wynn or LVH is about as much fun as you can have with your clothes on.
Does anybody share my passion?
Dos anybody have an early favorite? Does anybody have a ticket yet?
I have a small wager with LVH on Mexicoma at 125/1. I know the syndicate owner quite well and they think they have a live horse. He isn't as good as Animial Kingdom but still a very decent 2 turn colt.
Should we ask Wizard to open a section for horse racing??????
Quote: TomspurI don't know if this is the correct area of this thread bu I couldn't find a horse racing section so yeah, there's that :)
I'm a horse racing nut and can't wait for the Derby. I find that speculating and watching a horse develop over the next 5 months as well as dabbling in the futures market either on the tote or with Wynn or LVH is about as much fun as you can have with your clothes on.
Does anybody share my passion?
Dos anybody have an early favorite? Does anybody have a ticket yet?
I have a small wager with LVH on Mexicoma at 125/1. I know the syndicate owner quite well and they think they have a live horse. He isn't as good as Animial Kingdom but still a very decent 2 turn colt.
Don't know much at all about it but willing to learn. Found this listing of recent 2yrold winners on a horse forum, and they don't list any of the horses I know, and neither of yours, but since the list is defined by "recent winners", it's got to be very incomplete.
Quote: beachbumbabsDon't know much at all about it but willing to learn. Found this listing of recent 2yrold winners on a horse forum, and they don't list any of the horses I know, and neither of yours, but since the list is defined by "recent winners", it's got to be very incomplete.
Well Mexicoma ran 5th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He is live.
Um, Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 and is now happily retired in Australia so I don't hink he has any chance :)
Speedy I think the Sports Betting section will be ok since horse racing is in essence a sport?
http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2014_Derby-Wynn_11-18.pdf
The best bet has to be "Will any horse win the Triple Crown" at -850
Time to pick your favorite name and have some fun with it. I see there is a horse called "Vegas Strip". I know nothing about the nag but the name caught my eye.
My horse, Mexicoma is now available at 50 to 1
Quote: TomspurQuote: beachbumbabsDon't know much at all about it but willing to learn. Found this listing of recent 2yrold winners on a horse forum, and they don't list any of the horses I know, and neither of yours, but since the list is defined by "recent winners", it's got to be very incomplete.
Well Mexicoma ran 5th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. He is live.
Um, Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 and is now happily retired in Australia so I don't hink he has any chance :)
Speedy I think the Sports Betting section will be ok since horse racing is in essence a sport?
I read a funny article about horse racing in Australia by Andy Beyer a long time ago. He does well here in the US and decided to give Australia a shot and wrote about it. He ended up losing a lot. He said there was no pari-mutual betting, it was legal bookies at the track that took bets and either paid a fee to the track or the track got a cut. . The funny thing is they actually got into his head and made him question his bets. He would study the race and decide who to bet on. He would attempt to make a bet just as the bookie is changing the odds on his horse to longer odds. Now Beyer is questioning himself after seeing this and the bookie is chuckling.
Quote: TomspurQuote: beachbumbabsDon't know much at all about it but willing to learn. Found this listing of recent 2yrold winners on a horse forum, and they don't list any of the horses I know, and neither of yours, but since the list is defined by "recent winners", it's got to be very incomplete.
Um, Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 and is now happily retired in Australia so I don't hink he has any chance :)
D'oh! lol....knew I'd heard the name but obviously it didn't stick. Can I plead Hawaii that year, where I was working and didn't see it? Didn't think so.
It's quite amazing how different pari mutuel wagering is compared to wagering with a bookmaker. It is liike chalk and cheese. I come from a country where both are legal and I have a strong preference for the fixed odds variety. Having said that I understand the value the pari mutuel system has for the betterment of the sport. Bookmakers for the most part simply pay taxes. All over the workd, including the UK, Australia and South Africa there is fighting about how much should be paid and how much is paid.
Yeah Andy Beyer has a good name in the US but his system didn't work out well for him overseas. They saw him coming and took him down.
The saying that "there is always a bigger fish" rings true here as well as anywhere.
D'oh! lol....knew I'd heard the name but obviously it didn't stick. Can I plead Hawaii that year, where I was working and didn't see it? Didn't think so.
You can plead anything you like.....doesn't mean I'll believe or forgive you :)
Not sure he can get the distance though. He can close, but has been closing at under a mile
Quote: JW17I really like Honor Code, but so does everyone else. BUT as a side bet I like Wired Bryan, but as a buddy of mine named Brian said to me when I pounded him a few races ago, "never trust a bryan/brian" I got nosed in the saratoga special.
Not sure he can get the distance though. He can close, but has been closing at under a mile
Funny thing about closers and how races are run. There is a particular angle that I love when studying.
When a horse closes or runs well over 6 furlongs, I will bet him when he stretches out over 8 furlongs or perhaps more. Obviously his workouts are important as well as his pedigree but I do like those 6 furlong to 8 furlong moves :)
Honor Code is running on the 30th. Will be interesting to see if he has gotten over his "jumping slow and losing interest down the back stretch" problems.
So many questions.....so MUCH time :)
Quote: TomspurHere is a link to the Wynn futures betting as well as some interesting prop bets.
http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/2014_Derby-Wynn_11-18.pdf
The best bet has to be "Will any horse win the Triple Crown" at -850
I remember seeing a couple of Wynn prop bets last year, on whether or not Cozmic One (Bernardini out of Zenyatta) or Jess's Dream (Curlin out of Rachel Alexandra) will start the 2015 Kentucky Derby. (Each horse was 18-1 to start, or 1-30 not to start.) I'm wondering whether or not there are similar props for 2016 for the Bernardini/Rachel Alexandra filly or the Tapit/Zenyatta colt.
Quote: ThatDonGuyI remember seeing a couple of Wynn prop bets last year, on whether or not Cozmic One (Bernardini out of Zenyatta) or Jess's Dream (Curlin out of Rachel Alexandra) will start the 2015 Kentucky Derby. (Each horse was 18-1 to start, or 1-30 not to start.) I'm wondering whether or not there are similar props for 2016 for the Bernardini/Rachel Alexandra filly or the Tapit/Zenyatta colt.
Funny thing is, I would much rather take a bet on the 2016 renewal as first foals tend to be a little weak.
Cozmic One....a little self indulgent I would say :)
Quote: Tomspur
Loads of 3 year olds break down during their 3 year old career and gets retired before their time. I have a theory here.
It is well known lore that it is very difficult for a horse to win the Derby if he hasn't raced as a 2 year old BUT racing horses at two places unecessary strain on still maturing bones.
You have the passion for the ponies. That's great.
In horse racing it's important that young horses train. Nothing wrong with starting a two year old. Xray the knees. Make sure they're closed and send them to the track as long as they mentally able to handle the transition. It's important to stress the bone on young horses. The cannon bone for instance will change shape and get stronger with training. Remodel.
Several studies looked at catastrophic breakdowns comparing horses who were started at 2 versus 3 and up. The studies indicated no measurable difference. Human athletes are not put on the shelf until they are in high school. Some trainers push their charges too hard and won't back off......sad.
In horse racing more problems occur for the horse in the pastures, fields, paddocks and barn as new borns, sucklings, weanlings, yearlings and early juveniles.
I've pick one Derby winner in 40 years. Fusaichi Pegasus. Went off at 7/5 I believe. Bet I'll Take Charge the entire year and was finally proven right.
I bet the field every year in the Derby pools.
Several studies looked at catastrophic breakdowns comparing horses who were started at 2 versus 3 and up. The studies indicated no measurable difference. Human athletes are not put on the shelf until they are in high school. Some trainers push their charges too hard and won't back off......sad.
Seems like we are swinging from the opposite side here, and again due to the fact that no discernable difference could be fuond with studies between racing and not racing as a 2 year old then I have to think erring on the side of caution is the way to go?
Also how many of those off fore cannons snap on 2 year olds when they run early? I absolutely understand your stance in siding perhaps with the studies but in Animal Kingdom the connections proved that you don't need to have run at 2 in order to be competitive in the Derby, hell you don't even need to have run on the surface to do well.
And then to strengthen your point, he did break down anyway in this 3 and 4 year old career......:)
Guess it comes down to personal preference, neither of which seem to be exact science anyway.
Love me some ponies!!! :)
Two year old racing is too profitable for early maturing horses. I cringe when watching two year old races in the spring and early summer. Green bone.
Quote: Tomspur
Um, Animal Kingdom won the Derby in 2011 and is now happily retired in Australia so I don't hink he has any chance :)
Animal Kingdom is pulling double duty. Southern hemisphere for the breeding season and northern hemisphere at Jonabell Farm in Lexington. He'll probably cover 160 mares first crop without having to wine and dine one single lady.
Living the dream :)
Quote: terapinedI not a huge fan but am familiar with the sport. I use to live in Maryland and loved betting on the pacers and trotters because they ran at night. Freestate raceway (closed) and Rosecroft.
What I find unusual about this sport is the biggest race in the industry are for 3 yr old youngsters barely mature. In other sports, its veterans with years of fans behind them rooting them on for the championship. Other sports, greatness is measured by how many times you have won the yearly championship. At the Derby, its a new set of youngsters every year. Also when we have a superstar horse, the horse is retired immediately. No following the horse through a long career of winning races. As a sports fan, its harder to follow because no continuity.
Root for a gelding.
Quote: terapinedI not a huge fan but am familiar with the sport. I use to live in Maryland and loved betting on the pacers and trotters because they ran at night. Freestate raceway (closed) and Rosecroft.
What I find unusual about this sport is the biggest race in the industry are for 3 yr old youngsters barely mature. In other sports, its veterans with years of fans behind them rooting them on for the championship. Other sports, greatness is measured by how many times you have won the yearly championship. At the Derby, its a new set of youngsters every year. Also when we have a superstar horse, the horse is retired immediately. No following the horse through a long career of winning races. As a sports fan, its harder to follow because no continuity.
Most folks don't understand that the Kentucky Derby is a race for 3 year olds. The foal crop is approximately 30,000 horses. Twenty horses get loaded into the gate at the Derby. 20 out of 30,000 is impressive. These horses can be compared to top college football players. Some move to the next level and stick, most don't. Beating older top class horses is a different game.
I agree, fans are looking for horses that have longevity on the track. My favorites are the horses that ran as 4-5-6 and up..... Race fans really don't care what the horses do in the breeding shed.
The Holy Bull was run on Saturday and was won emphatically by Cairo Prince (I'm going to regret this one Babs!!!).
The favorite for the race is still Honor Code at or near 12/1 if you shop around. He has beaten Cairo Prince before but some may say the prince was a little unlucky that day. Shared Belief has also atracted some support and is now also generally available around 12/1.
Currently the most backed horse in the Derby is Cairo Prince according to oddschecker but that is to be expected after his good win on Saturday.
I'm still rowing in with Mexicoma. You can still get 40/1 if you ask nicely. His stable companion, Orange Grove has also been making a bit of noise so, he may be worth a look see at 100/1.
I'll update this thread every few weeks when a major points earning race has been run!
Quote: TomspurOk so the early races for attaining points have been run.
The Holy Bull was run on Saturday and was won emphatically by Cairo Prince (I'm going to regret this one Babs!!!).
The favorite for the race is still Honor Code at or near 12/1 if you shop around. He has beaten Cairo Prince before but some may say the prince was a little unlucky that day. Shared Belief has also atracted some support and is now also generally available around 12/1.
Currently the most backed horse in the Derby is Cairo Prince according to oddschecker but that is to be expected after his good win on Saturday.
I'm still rowing in with Mexicoma. You can still get 40/1 if you ask nicely. His stable companion, Orange Grove has also been making a bit of noise so, he may be worth a look see at 100/1.
I'll update this thread every few weeks when a major points earning race has been run!
Told ja re: Cairo Prince. He's your lucky charm.
