week 10 ncaa 'early teasers'
October 27th, 2013 at 11:40:47 PM
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here are my 6 point, ties reduce, selections from 5dimes,
(it looks slightly different to last week because i have just cut and pasted from 5d's website)
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Wager
11/2/2013 12:00 PM College Football 326 Rutgers* -7½ vs Temple estimate 1.0 point advantage (adv)
11/2/2013 7:00 PM College Football 336 Missouri* -5½ vs Tennessee U " " 3.0 point adv
11/2/2013 3:30 PM College Football 372 Nebraska* -1½ vs Northwestern " " 2.0 point adv
11/2/2013 7:00 PM College Football 389 Oklahoma State* +7½ vs Texas Tech " " 2.5 point adv
11/2/2013 8:00 PM College Football 397 Boise State* -1½ vs Colorado State " " 2.5 point adv
11/2/2013 8:00 PM College Football 400 San Diego State* -9 vs New Mexico " " 2.0 point adv
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going for an outlay 16 bet combinations, (1 six game will pay +710, and 15 four game teasers for +400)
these are early bets so are a lot more volatile^ , so bet 0.2% of bank roll for the six game combination and 0.16% for each four game combination
^ normally i would bet up-to 2 times the above amounts if i had made the same estimates closer to game day.
estimated ER is between 115.5% for the worst 4 game teaser to 139.8% for the 6 game teaser
(it looks slightly different to last week because i have just cut and pasted from 5d's website)
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Wager
11/2/2013 12:00 PM College Football 326 Rutgers* -7½ vs Temple estimate 1.0 point advantage (adv)
11/2/2013 7:00 PM College Football 336 Missouri* -5½ vs Tennessee U " " 3.0 point adv
11/2/2013 3:30 PM College Football 372 Nebraska* -1½ vs Northwestern " " 2.0 point adv
11/2/2013 7:00 PM College Football 389 Oklahoma State* +7½ vs Texas Tech " " 2.5 point adv
11/2/2013 8:00 PM College Football 397 Boise State* -1½ vs Colorado State " " 2.5 point adv
11/2/2013 8:00 PM College Football 400 San Diego State* -9 vs New Mexico " " 2.0 point adv
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going for an outlay 16 bet combinations, (1 six game will pay +710, and 15 four game teasers for +400)
these are early bets so are a lot more volatile^ , so bet 0.2% of bank roll for the six game combination and 0.16% for each four game combination
^ normally i would bet up-to 2 times the above amounts if i had made the same estimates closer to game day.
estimated ER is between 115.5% for the worst 4 game teaser to 139.8% for the 6 game teaser
October 28th, 2013 at 7:19:17 AM
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College teasers are horrible bets. The only good time to bet a college teaser is NEVER.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
October 28th, 2013 at 2:06:38 PM
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o generally agree.....but do you think the "over" has value"
since even if you dont come close during the game..there is a chance a tie can put it over based on the OT rules
plus...as opposed to the NFL where running out the clock is used to protect the fragile egos of thse 300 lb millionaires.....some college coaches dont mind rubbing it in. So going for a TD late in the game when youare up by.30 isnt improbable. They might do it for standings points etc.
Heck being up by 4 tds late...Jim Harbaugh went for 2 points against USC and pete carroll......to carrolls disgust.
never would happen in the NFL
but if someone needed an over...thats the type of stuff they like to see.
I think thre is some value in teasing overs in college.
since even if you dont come close during the game..there is a chance a tie can put it over based on the OT rules
plus...as opposed to the NFL where running out the clock is used to protect the fragile egos of thse 300 lb millionaires.....some college coaches dont mind rubbing it in. So going for a TD late in the game when youare up by.30 isnt improbable. They might do it for standings points etc.
Heck being up by 4 tds late...Jim Harbaugh went for 2 points against USC and pete carroll......to carrolls disgust.
never would happen in the NFL
but if someone needed an over...thats the type of stuff they like to see.
I think thre is some value in teasing overs in college.
