This was "square bettors week" in NFL

Stay away from your local bookie the next few days, he may be in a bad mood.

Top public plays were:

Patriots -6 trailed 14-0 early and 14-3 at half. Not only do they come back and win but they cover too.

Broncos -11 trailed 21-7 midway through the 3rd quarter. Books and redskins backers are thinking ok even if Wash blows this lead, it would take a minor miracle for a team to go
from winning by 14 to not covering +11 in a quarter. Four picks and a fumble later denver covers EASILY 45-21

Packers -8 well at least this one was never in doubt. Although when your getting 8 and your team runs the games opening kickoff back for a 109 yard TD, You might mistakenly think
you're in good shape

Saints -11 blowout, easy win for your basic square bettor

Bengals -6 see saints above

San Fran -16 wow this sports betting is easy....

Not to mention, two of the dogs who covered, NYG and DALLAS, were heavily backed by the public

So the only saving grace for the sportsbooks this week was the chiefs not covering the -9. But pretty much every teaser on Sunday was a winner, every moneyline parlay was a winner, there
Were really no upsets unless you count the 2 point dog Raiders winning at home. All this means one thing,,watch out this coming week,,,cause the books will get their revenge.


Maybe that means the Rams and ...gulp Kellen Clemens at qb...get the upset win over Seatt.e??? Prob not . But I do believe they'll stay within 11

you are right. Even the 2 main "overs" wound up over...even with slow starts.....Denver/wash and dallas/ detroit

things tend o even out.

I dont know if the books have to do anything

people, after a week like this, start bettting crazy, thinking the dogs are now going to come in...or the unexpected is going to happen

the best thing to do is just bet a usual...and not get paranoid of "the man"

Quote: LarryS

...and not get paranoid of "the man"

Hi LarryS. Enjoy your posts. Isn't it prudent to worry about illegal bookies and even off shore books paying off winning wagers if weeks go like this past one?

I'll repeat an ignored question of a few weeks ago. Has a Las Vegas sports book ever refused payment or discounted payments on parlay card winners? I recall (decade ago) a disclaimer on parlay cards about overall win limits? This inquiry and disclaimer would include teaser cards. Thanks.

I got killed yesterday. Money line bets on the Jags, Rams, Wash, NYJ, Mia, Buf, and Min. All losers. Not to mention my half-point parlays. Let me get back to licking my wounds.

Quote: Wizard

I got killed yesterday. Money line bets on the Jags, Rams, Wash, NYJ, Mia, Buf, and Min. All losers. Not to mention my half-point parlays. Let me get back to licking my wounds.

Which just makes the point of the original post. Good news is you will get it back in the coming weeks.

I'm with the Wizard. I had the chiefs at +6.5 which ruined a four team $5K parlay...

I still have the Rams money line at +500. In the unlikely event they win, it will make up for every other bet.

Quote: NokTang

Hi LarryS. Enjoy your posts. Isn't it prudent to worry about illegal bookies and even off shore books paying off winning wagers if weeks go like this past one?

I'll repeat an ignored question of a few weeks ago. Has a Las Vegas sports book ever refused payment or discounted payments on parlay card winners? I recall (decade ago) a disclaimer on parlay cards about overall win limits? This inquiry and disclaimer would include teaser cards. Thanks.

I am the wrong person to ask this because I always bet legal, only on the weekend at a brcik and mortar sportsbook in reno.

one of the reasons I dont use online books,is just what you bring up. Many of them are overseas island establisments that can close down and reopen at the drop of a hat. If they dont send you your money on purpose or due to a glitch in their system, who do you complain to? Its not like you can complain to the better business buereu or the attorney general office.....its illegal...they dont care.

On the flip side people will tell me, that these onlline books rely on word of mourth and they wouldnt screw people on a large scale as word of mouth would follow worldwide So if they want to stay in business...they should treat you fairly.

But I will tell you this, when poker sites were closed down, some of my buddies were holding their breath wondering if they would get their money back. It wasnt a foregone conclusion...there was always that doubt. And if you bet the online books...there will always be that doubt.

As far as street bookies....I cant speak for them. I never met anyone who had experiences with them good or bad. I am, sure there are horror stories here and there as they can indeed if they wanted slip into the shaodws and not appear again...and resurface somewhere else.

I would think if someone wanted to do a search they could find consumer reviewes or experiences with the off shore online books.


but overall my oribginal point is next week....do not change your opinions on your picks based on what happened this week. After a lsoing week or a winning week we should be able to wipe the slate clean and do our analysis and make our judgements without making using last week as an excuse to change to more dogs because the chalk came in. Things( like over/under or dogd/faves generally tend to even out in a season..but that doesnt mean it evens out the next week.

NokTang- just my opinion, but I would not bet with an offshore sportsbook. Yeah, you will probably get paid, but the "process" of getting paid absolutely sucks.

They charge you ridiculous fees to collect YOUR MONEY, and they make you wait weeks to get YOUR MONEY.

Would you play at a casino that charges you $50 to cash in your chips at the cage? Then make you wait 4-6 weeks to give you YOUR MONEY? That's just nuts.

Quote: Wizard

I still have the Rams money line at +500. In the unlikely event they win, it will make up for every other bet.

The beauty of being an underdog moneyline bettor....

This was an extremely rare event, an nfl regular season Sunday with only one dog of greater than +3 winning outright (giants)

Quote: Wizard

I still have the Rams money line at +500. In the unlikely event they win, it will make up for every other bet.

I don't think you do that same type of wagering in college football Wizard, but there was two real nice ones on Saturday.

Minnesota was + 420 dog and beat Nebraska , and Duke was + 600 and beat virginia tech.

Good positive variance on Rams tonight !!

I wrote an article about this today. There were 14 bets that had 70%+ action on them. They all won. Three were correlated. 72% of the money was on Red Sox last night too.

I have different view about betting online. Its true there is some risk however, the risk vs the reward is worth it for many reasons. Not all charge fees to cash out money. many have bonus insentives that would more then make up for any extra fees. The sharp guys who really crush sports use many online and offshore books. I would not suggest putting your entire bankroll in one place. Just do your research

a bad week for a good book is like a 45 min roll at a craps table.....its all coming back tomorrow.