Wong Teasers -- Alive and Well

For those who don't know what a Wong teaser is, it is a 6-point off the board teaser that crosses the margin of victories of 3 and 7. It must be done on points spreads of +1.5 to +2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. Based on just chatter, it seems interest in them has faded. This may be because (1) it is harder to find the good lines, and (2) 2001 to 2005 were bad years for them. This is when I actively bet them, of course, and got discouraged with losing a lot of money.

This chart shows the probability of any given leg in a Wong teaser winning, by year, not counting ties.



To break even on a 3-team teaser that pays 9 to 5, the probability of winning each leg must be 70.95%. From 1994 to 2012 this probability has been 73.23%. I think the bad years of 01 to 05 were just a temporary drought.

This table shows the expected return at the best available odds.

Legs	Best Odds	Prob win	Exp Ret
2	20 to 23	53.62%	0.24%
3	1.8	39.26%	9.94%
4	3	28.75%	15.00%
5	4.5	21.05%	15.79%
6	7	15.42%	23.33%
7	10	11.29%	24.17%
8	15	8.27%	32.25%
9	15	6.05%	-3.16%
10	20	4.43%	-6.93%

The pays of 1.8 for a 3-leg, and 3 for a 4-leg, are available only at Jerry's Nugget. You can find the 7 and 10 for 5- and 6-leg teasers at lots of places. However, few weeks have that many qualifying games. To be specific, 20% of games are Wong worthy, so in a 16-game week, you can expect an average of 3.2 such games.

I'm working on a teaser page. So far I've only addressed off the board teasers, but the cards will follow.

I found some real value on the parlay and teaser cards Week 1 of last NFL season. The first week of college games was the weekend before NFL week 1 and multiple casinos put out teaser and parlay cards that 10 days before the NFL games. There was significant line movement during those days and I got many numbers that had moved by 2 or 3 points on both the parlay card and teaser. For example, the Redskins were +9.5 on parlay card and +15 on the ties win parlay card and closed +7.5. I realize this isn't a Wong Teaser, but it demonstrates that value can be found. Do pros avoid these bets due to the fairly low limits or the chance that they will get barred if they get too much of an edge?

Another good one Wizard. Thanks!

I just added an analysis of what I call 5.5-point teaser cards.

Quote: 1arrowheaddr

I found some real value on the parlay and teaser cards Week 1 of last NFL season. The first week of college games was the weekend before NFL week 1 and multiple casinos put out teaser and parlay cards that 10 days before the NFL games. There was significant line movement during those days and I got many numbers that had moved by 2 or 3 points on both the parlay card and teaser. For example, the Redskins were +9.5 on parlay card and +15 on the ties win parlay card and closed +7.5. I realize this isn't a Wong Teaser, but it demonstrates that value can be found.

Nice find! I'm surprised they put out the cards so long in advance. As the link above describes, I find that teaser cards are normally a lousy bet, but that is certainly an exception to the rule.

Quote:

Do pros avoid these bets due to the fairly low limits or the chance that they will get barred if they get too much of an edge?

I tend to think most don't fuss with them because of (1) low limits, (2) high variance, and (3) they are time consuming to fill out. However, I plan to continue putting them in all season. Wish me positive variance.

How are the various subsets performing?? I think I remember seeing numbers 4 or 5 years ago that Road Favs were worst performing, while Home Dogs did best?? Wonder if any of those have changed.

Interesting stuff.

I've known some wong teasers in my day!!! (I couldn't resist)

I've added lots more material to my page on NFL Teasers. As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and corrections.

Bump.

I found this on another forum from a guy who seems pretty smart. The wording is kind of confusing but, when I finally put it together, it seemed like something to look for. He is talking about how the books using anti-Wong measures opens the door for other + ev plays.

"I'll give a good example of a teaser though. A typical 6pt -110 teaser leg is the equivalent of betting -241 (if you're not sure why, you should think about it for a moment).

Occasionally the market will price a -6.5 favorite at something like -280/+250. Taking favorite -.5 is the same as taking it straight up (for the same reasons why teasing through the zero is a mistake.)"

There seems to be a fairly major discrepancy in the data on WoO about Wong teasers.

On this page, in the "6-Point OTB Teaser — Wong Bettor" table, the probabilities of winning (and edges) seem to be calculated based on a 73.2% chance of winning each leg.

However, on this page, the probability of winning after buying 6 pts off on a spread of -8.5, -8, -7.5, +1.5, +2, or +2.5 is given as 77% or 77.1% (with the 77.1% number for -8.5/+2.5 spreads).

The difference here is massive. We are talking about the difference between a 0.24% edge and a 10.8% edge on a 2-team teaser that pays 20-to-23. The first is almost unplayable; the 2nd is a mortgage-the-house kind of opportunity (a 10+% edge where you win almost 60% of the time??? High edge, low variance...)

So, which is correct? The 77% number seems too good to be true. Both pages claim to be based off data from the 1994-2012 seasons.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

There seems to be a fairly major discrepancy in the data on WoO about Wong teasers.

Good catch. The one I stand by is this page. I will work on fixing the other one.

Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

No problem. I knew that the 77% was too good to be true :(

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

No problem. I knew that the 77% was too good to be true :(

Okay, I corrected it. Hopefully correctly.

One more quick question:

Do you also still think that the numbers on your 1/2 pt parlay card page are right? I ask because the numbers for the 3 & 7 pt lines (54.42% win rate) seem match the alternate pt spreads table (in the table, 54.8% for a half pt off 3 and 53.3% for a half pt off 7. Since 3pt spreads are more common than 7pt spreads (I think?) that 54.42% number could be a weighted average)

Thanks again for putting all this together -- this data is really useful if you are willing to put in a bit of work! With the alternate pt spread table you can figure out the EV of any 1/2 pt parlay card bet -- I was trying to do that (with teasers, as well), which is how I stumbled across this in the first place.

Quote: Rigondeaux

Bump.

I found this on another forum from a guy who seems pretty smart. The wording is kind of confusing but, when I finally put it together, it seemed like something to look for. He is talking about how the books using anti-Wong measures opens the door for other + ev plays. ...."

you may be right about anti-'wong' measures opening the door for other +EV bets,
i have recently been looking to see if there is any value in pleasers, see below for examples, (i know this thread is for 'wong'-teasers but i still think this may be relevant)
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eg 1. i took a two team (TIES WIN) 6 point pleaser on the week 5 Bills and Redskins game both teams @ +3 (after selling six points) @ odds of +550.

for the above example, the book has both games spread @ 9.0, (this was the base spread used for teasers/pleasers, they had a spread of 7.5 for 'normal' ATS bets, for these two games)
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eg 2 in week 4 I took the 3-team ties win, 0 to 1 game loses, and the bet is still a winner, 6 point pleaser, below

3 Team Teaser (ties win) M.Ch Pl tw 1Miss 6pt
Win 9/28/14 1:00pm NFL Football 253 Green Bay Packers -7 * vs Chicago Bears
Win 9/28/14 1:00pm NFL Football 261 Detroit Lions -7 * vs New York Jets
Loss 9/28/14 4:05pm NFL Football 265 Jacksonville Jaguars +8 * vs San Diego Chargers

the odds for the above game were +195

for the above example, the book had the teaser/pleaser line @ -1 for Packers and Lions games, and +14 for Jaguars, (they had the spread for 'normal' ATS bets @ -2 for Packers and lions, and + 12.5 for the Jaguars)
-----

Took me a while to process and realize you must be talking about 5dimes, with those screwy lines. The Wiz's pleaser page makes them sound insurmountable, but when the lines are that out of whack, I wonder if you might be onto something.

Edit: Maybe another thing to think about. If college games are less valuable in teasers, maybe they are something to look at with pleasers.

OK... there's a really good chance I'm doing this wrong. However,

2 team Ties win 6 point pleaser = +550.

Parlay of +155 and +155 = 550.25

So we want better than +155 on one or both legs of our pleaser.

Buffalo on Pinny and others is +7.5 though it is trending slightly to 7.

You can essentially get them for +3.5 in the ties win pleaser. It actually goes from 9 to 3, but you win if it hits three.

Fair value for +7.5 to +3.5 is +160 according to the Wiz's point buying Calculator.

Looks about neutral in this case.

Rigondeaux,

Yeah the sportsbook was 5dimes,

the pleaser card takes 6 points off NFL games and 7 points off College games, so i don't know if college games are worth betting, but i am having a look at them.

Just looking at the Vikings/Packers game,

pinnacle sports has the vikings at +172 for a spread of +3.5

so that is obviously better than the pleaser bet i was previously talking about, because +172 is a lot better than +155 (roughly the square root of +550)

Quote: ksdjdj

Just looking at the Vikings/Packers game,

pinnacle sports has the vikings at +172 for a spread of +3.5

so that is obviously better than the pleaser bet i was previously talking about, because +172 is a lot better than +155 (roughly the square root of +550)

Unless I'm mistaken, you really want the true value of the bet to be LOWER. You're getting paid as if you parlayed +155 and +155. So, if you can make to bets that have a fair value of, say +130 and +140 and get paid as though they were +155 and +155, that's what we're after, right?

Rigondeaux

yes, you are right of course about the true value,

i was just saying that pinnacle sports is better for the first portion of the bet, with odds of +172 (but they only seem to offer alternate lines on thursday and monday night games)


Edit (after starting Q'back injured): too bad you can't bet like they do on MLB (starting pitcher rule/option), with the option of Main Q'back must start for the bet to stand , lol