This chart shows the probability of any given leg in a Wong teaser winning, by year, not counting ties.
To break even on a 3-team teaser that pays 9 to 5, the probability of winning each leg must be 70.95%. From 1994 to 2012 this probability has been 73.23%. I think the bad years of 01 to 05 were just a temporary drought.
This table shows the expected return at the best available odds.
|Legs||Best Odds||Prob win||Exp Ret|
|2||20 to 23||53.62%||0.24%|
The pays of 1.8 for a 3-leg, and 3 for a 4-leg, are available only at Jerry's Nugget. You can find the 7 and 10 for 5- and 6-leg teasers at lots of places. However, few weeks have that many qualifying games. To be specific, 20% of games are Wong worthy, so in a 16-game week, you can expect an average of 3.2 such games.
I found some real value on the parlay and teaser cards Week 1 of last NFL season. The first week of college games was the weekend before NFL week 1 and multiple casinos put out teaser and parlay cards that 10 days before the NFL games. There was significant line movement during those days and I got many numbers that had moved by 2 or 3 points on both the parlay card and teaser. For example, the Redskins were +9.5 on parlay card and +15 on the ties win parlay card and closed +7.5. I realize this isn't a Wong Teaser, but it demonstrates that value can be found.
Nice find! I'm surprised they put out the cards so long in advance. As the link above describes, I find that teaser cards are normally a lousy bet, but that is certainly an exception to the rule.
Do pros avoid these bets due to the fairly low limits or the chance that they will get barred if they get too much of an edge?
I tend to think most don't fuss with them because of (1) low limits, (2) high variance, and (3) they are time consuming to fill out. However, I plan to continue putting them in all season. Wish me positive variance.
I found this on another forum from a guy who seems pretty smart. The wording is kind of confusing but, when I finally put it together, it seemed like something to look for. He is talking about how the books using anti-Wong measures opens the door for other + ev plays.
"I'll give a good example of a teaser though. A typical 6pt -110 teaser leg is the equivalent of betting -241 (if you're not sure why, you should think about it for a moment).
Occasionally the market will price a -6.5 favorite at something like -280/+250. Taking favorite -.5 is the same as taking it straight up (for the same reasons why teasing through the zero is a mistake.)"