This chart shows the probability of any given leg in a Wong teaser winning, by year, not counting ties.

To break even on a 3-team teaser that pays 9 to 5, the probability of winning each leg must be 70.95%. From 1994 to 2012 this probability has been 73.23%. I think the bad years of 01 to 05 were just a temporary drought.

This table shows the expected return at the best available odds.

Legs | Best Odds | Prob win | Exp Ret |
---|---|---|---|

2 | 20 to 23 | 53.62% | 0.24% |

3 | 1.8 | 39.26% | 9.94% |

4 | 3 | 28.75% | 15.00% |

5 | 4.5 | 21.05% | 15.79% |

6 | 7 | 15.42% | 23.33% |

7 | 10 | 11.29% | 24.17% |

8 | 15 | 8.27% | 32.25% |

9 | 15 | 6.05% | -3.16% |

10 | 20 | 4.43% | -6.93% |

The pays of 1.8 for a 3-leg, and 3 for a 4-leg, are available only at Jerry's Nugget. You can find the 7 and 10 for 5- and 6-leg teasers at lots of places. However, few weeks have that many qualifying games. To be specific, 20% of games are Wong worthy, so in a 16-game week, you can expect an average of 3.2 such games.

Quote:1arrowheaddrI found some real value on the parlay and teaser cards Week 1 of last NFL season. The first week of college games was the weekend before NFL week 1 and multiple casinos put out teaser and parlay cards that 10 days before the NFL games. There was significant line movement during those days and I got many numbers that had moved by 2 or 3 points on both the parlay card and teaser. For example, the Redskins were +9.5 on parlay card and +15 on the ties win parlay card and closed +7.5. I realize this isn't a Wong Teaser, but it demonstrates that value can be found.

Nice find! I'm surprised they put out the cards so long in advance. As the link above describes, I find that teaser cards are normally a lousy bet, but that is certainly an exception to the rule.

Quote:Do pros avoid these bets due to the fairly low limits or the chance that they will get barred if they get too much of an edge?

I tend to think most don't fuss with them because of (1) low limits, (2) high variance, and (3) they are time consuming to fill out. However, I plan to continue putting them in all season. Wish me positive variance.

I found this on another forum from a guy who seems pretty smart. The wording is kind of confusing but, when I finally put it together, it seemed like something to look for. He is talking about how the books using anti-Wong measures opens the door for other + ev plays.

"I'll give a good example of a teaser though. A typical 6pt -110 teaser leg is the equivalent of betting -241 (if you're not sure why, you should think about it for a moment).

Occasionally the market will price a -6.5 favorite at something like -280/+250. Taking favorite -.5 is the same as taking it straight up (for the same reasons why teasing through the zero is a mistake.)"

On this page, in the "6-Point OTB Teaser — Wong Bettor" table, the probabilities of winning (and edges) seem to be calculated based on a 73.2% chance of winning each leg.

However, on this page, the probability of winning after buying 6 pts off on a spread of -8.5, -8, -7.5, +1.5, +2, or +2.5 is given as 77% or 77.1% (with the 77.1% number for -8.5/+2.5 spreads).

The difference here is massive. We are talking about the difference between a 0.24% edge and a 10.8% edge on a 2-team teaser that pays 20-to-23. The first is almost unplayable; the 2nd is a mortgage-the-house kind of opportunity (a 10+% edge where you win almost 60% of the time??? High edge, low variance...)

So, which is correct? The 77% number seems too good to be true. Both pages claim to be based off data from the 1994-2012 seasons.

Quote:AxiomOfChoiceThere seems to be a fairly major discrepancy in the data on WoO about Wong teasers.

Good catch. The one I stand by is this page. I will work on fixing the other one.

Thank you for bringing this to my attention.

Quote:AxiomOfChoiceNo problem. I knew that the 77% was too good to be true :(

Okay, I corrected it. Hopefully correctly.

Do you also still think that the numbers on your 1/2 pt parlay card page are right? I ask because the numbers for the 3 & 7 pt lines (54.42% win rate) seem match the alternate pt spreads table (in the table, 54.8% for a half pt off 3 and 53.3% for a half pt off 7. Since 3pt spreads are more common than 7pt spreads (I think?) that 54.42% number could be a weighted average)

Thanks again for putting all this together -- this data is really useful if you are willing to put in a bit of work! With the alternate pt spread table you can figure out the EV of any 1/2 pt parlay card bet -- I was trying to do that (with teasers, as well), which is how I stumbled across this in the first place.

Quote:RigondeauxBump.

I found this on another forum from a guy who seems pretty smart. The wording is kind of confusing but, when I finally put it together, it seemed like something to look for. He is talking about how the books using anti-Wong measures opens the door for other + ev plays. ...."

you may be right about anti-'wong' measures opening the door for other +EV bets,

i have recently been looking to see if there is any value in pleasers, see below for examples, (i know this thread is for 'wong'-teasers but i still think this may be relevant)

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eg 1. i took a two team (TIES WIN) 6 point pleaser on the week 5 Bills and Redskins game both teams @ +3 (after selling six points) @ odds of +550.

for the above example, the book has both games spread @ 9.0, (this was the base spread used for teasers/pleasers, they had a spread of 7.5 for 'normal' ATS bets, for these two games)

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eg 2 in week 4 I took the 3-team ties win, 0 to 1 game loses, and the bet is still a winner, 6 point pleaser, below

3 Team Teaser (ties win) M.Ch Pl tw 1Miss 6pt

Win 9/28/14 1:00pm NFL Football 253 Green Bay Packers -7 * vs Chicago Bears

Win 9/28/14 1:00pm NFL Football 261 Detroit Lions -7 * vs New York Jets

Loss 9/28/14 4:05pm NFL Football 265 Jacksonville Jaguars +8 * vs San Diego Chargers

the odds for the above game were +195

for the above example, the book had the teaser/pleaser line @ -1 for Packers and Lions games, and +14 for Jaguars, (they had the spread for 'normal' ATS bets @ -2 for Packers and lions, and + 12.5 for the Jaguars)

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Edit: Maybe another thing to think about. If college games are less valuable in teasers, maybe they are something to look at with pleasers.

2 team Ties win 6 point pleaser = +550.

Parlay of +155 and +155 = 550.25

So we want better than +155 on one or both legs of our pleaser.

Buffalo on Pinny and others is +7.5 though it is trending slightly to 7.

You can essentially get them for +3.5 in the ties win pleaser. It actually goes from 9 to 3, but you win if it hits three.

Fair value for +7.5 to +3.5 is +160 according to the Wiz's point buying Calculator.

Looks about neutral in this case.

Yeah the sportsbook was 5dimes,

the pleaser card takes 6 points off NFL games and 7 points off College games, so i don't know if college games are worth betting, but i am having a look at them.

pinnacle sports has the vikings at +172 for a spread of +3.5

so that is obviously better than the pleaser bet i was previously talking about, because +172 is a lot better than +155 (roughly the square root of +550)

Quote:ksdjdjJust looking at the Vikings/Packers game,

pinnacle sports has the vikings at +172 for a spread of +3.5

so that is obviously better than the pleaser bet i was previously talking about, because +172 is a lot better than +155 (roughly the square root of +550)

Unless I'm mistaken, you really want the true value of the bet to be LOWER. You're getting paid as if you parlayed +155 and +155. So, if you can make to bets that have a fair value of, say +130 and +140 and get paid as though they were +155 and +155, that's what we're after, right?

yes, you are right of course about the true value,

i was just saying that pinnacle sports is better for the first portion of the bet, with odds of +172 (but they only seem to offer alternate lines on thursday and monday night games)

Edit (after starting Q'back injured): too bad you can't bet like they do on MLB (starting pitcher rule/option), with the option of Main Q'back must start for the bet to stand , lol