Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22244
October 3rd, 2013 at 8:40:26 PM permalink
For those who don't know what a Wong teaser is, it is a 6-point off the board teaser that crosses the margin of victories of 3 and 7. It must be done on points spreads of +1.5 to +2.5 or -7.5 to -8.5. Based on just chatter, it seems interest in them has faded. This may be because (1) it is harder to find the good lines, and (2) 2001 to 2005 were bad years for them. This is when I actively bet them, of course, and got discouraged with losing a lot of money.

This chart shows the probability of any given leg in a Wong teaser winning, by year, not counting ties.

To break even on a 3-team teaser that pays 9 to 5, the probability of winning each leg must be 70.95%. From 1994 to 2012 this probability has been 73.23%. I think the bad years of 01 to 05 were just a temporary drought.

This table shows the expected return at the best available odds.

Legs Best Odds Prob win Exp Ret
2 20 to 23 53.62% 0.24%
3 1.8 39.26% 9.94%
4 3 28.75% 15.00%
5 4.5 21.05% 15.79%
6 7 15.42% 23.33%
7 10 11.29% 24.17%
8 15 8.27% 32.25%
9 15 6.05% -3.16%
10 20 4.43% -6.93%

The pays of 1.8 for a 3-leg, and 3 for a 4-leg, are available only at Jerry's Nugget. You can find the 7 and 10 for 5- and 6-leg teasers at lots of places. However, few weeks have that many qualifying games. To be specific, 20% of games are Wong worthy, so in a 16-game week, you can expect an average of 3.2 such games.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22244
October 4th, 2013 at 9:45:00 AM permalink
I'm working on a teaser page. So far I've only addressed off the board teasers, but the cards will follow.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
• Posts: 297
October 4th, 2013 at 9:59:03 AM permalink
I found some real value on the parlay and teaser cards Week 1 of last NFL season. The first week of college games was the weekend before NFL week 1 and multiple casinos put out teaser and parlay cards that 10 days before the NFL games. There was significant line movement during those days and I got many numbers that had moved by 2 or 3 points on both the parlay card and teaser. For example, the Redskins were +9.5 on parlay card and +15 on the ties win parlay card and closed +7.5. I realize this isn't a Wong Teaser, but it demonstrates that value can be found. Do pros avoid these bets due to the fairly low limits or the chance that they will get barred if they get too much of an edge?
KeyserSoze
Joined: Jul 14, 2013
• Posts: 413
October 4th, 2013 at 10:41:19 AM permalink
Another good one Wizard. Thanks!
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22244
October 4th, 2013 at 6:53:02 PM permalink
I just added an analysis of what I call 5.5-point teaser cards.

I found some real value on the parlay and teaser cards Week 1 of last NFL season. The first week of college games was the weekend before NFL week 1 and multiple casinos put out teaser and parlay cards that 10 days before the NFL games. There was significant line movement during those days and I got many numbers that had moved by 2 or 3 points on both the parlay card and teaser. For example, the Redskins were +9.5 on parlay card and +15 on the ties win parlay card and closed +7.5. I realize this isn't a Wong Teaser, but it demonstrates that value can be found.

Nice find! I'm surprised they put out the cards so long in advance. As the link above describes, I find that teaser cards are normally a lousy bet, but that is certainly an exception to the rule.

Quote:

Do pros avoid these bets due to the fairly low limits or the chance that they will get barred if they get too much of an edge?

I tend to think most don't fuss with them because of (1) low limits, (2) high variance, and (3) they are time consuming to fill out. However, I plan to continue putting them in all season. Wish me positive variance.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
TommyABC123
Joined: Oct 9, 2013
• Posts: 1
October 9th, 2013 at 12:10:06 AM permalink
How are the various subsets performing?? I think I remember seeing numbers 4 or 5 years ago that Road Favs were worst performing, while Home Dogs did best?? Wonder if any of those have changed.
GBV
Joined: Jun 12, 2012
• Posts: 110
October 9th, 2013 at 1:56:50 AM permalink
Interesting stuff.
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
• Posts: 6506
October 9th, 2013 at 6:23:39 AM permalink
I've known some wong teasers in my day!!! (I couldn't resist)
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
• Posts: 22244
October 10th, 2013 at 7:00:17 AM permalink
I've added lots more material to my page on NFL Teasers. As always, I welcome all comments, questions, and corrections.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014