Denver Broncos vs Jacksonville Jaguars in 2 weeks. Poll - what do you think point spread will be
Poll
 | 1 vote (4%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (4%) | ||
| | 1 vote (4%) | ||
| | 3 votes (12%) | ||
| | 2 votes (8%) | ||
| | 1 vote (4%) | ||
| | 4 votes (16%) | ||
| | 2 votes (8%) | ||
| | 10 votes (40%) |
25 members have voted
i would never bet the over on a game like this.
Quote: KeyserI read somewhere that the Jaguars score around seven points per game. However, in the game against Denver I believe that they will score more than usual. The Jaguars will probably score something closer to 21 points, and of course, lose. The reason I believe that they will score more points than usual is because they will be taking larger risks in an attempt to keep up with the Broncos.
In the end the score will be Denver 42, Jaguars 21.
Manning will be injured and leave the game. He will be out for several games. This will enable the Cheifs to beat the Broncos and win the division. The Cheifs then go on to win the Super Bowl.
This is pretty accurate through 1 half! Manning almost did get injured with that low tackle. The Jags are taking a lot of weird chances with fakes and 4th downs.
Quote: bigfoot66And the jags are only down 2 going in to the half.... Interesting....
It will be historical if the Jags win. Unfortunately, it won't benefit me because I wanted to get 40-1, and the best I saw was 30. At Pinnacle it dropped to about 19-1 Sunday morning.
I do have +475 on Ariz, so wish me positive variance on that one.
Quote: WizardIt will be historical if the Jags win. Unfortunately, it won't benefit me because I wanted to get 40-1, and the best I saw was 30. At Pinnacle it dropped to about 19-1 Sunday morning.
I do have +475 on Ariz, so wish me positive variance on that one.
I think you got a good bet. The San Franciscos are overrated.
Quote: KeyserI read somewhere that the Jaguars score around seven points per game. However, in the game against Denver I believe that they will score more than usual. The Jaguars will probably score something closer to 21 points, and of course, lose. The reason I believe that they will score more points than usual is because they will be taking larger risks in an attempt to keep up with the Broncos.
In the end the score will be Denver 42, Jaguars 21.
Manning will be injured and leave the game. He will be out for several games. This will enable the Cheifs to beat the Broncos and win the division. The Cheifs then go on to win the Super Bowl.
I wasn't too far off on my prediction. However, I thought that Manning would be injured and would leave the game.
Quote: KeyserI wasn't too far off on my prediction. However, I thought that Manning would be injured and would leave the game.
Her certainly appeared to be hurt. He got hit low in the 1Q and limped after that and when he fumbled at goal line he made zero effort to get it.
Quote: cclub79This is pretty accurate through 1 half! Manning almost did get injured with that low tackle. The Jags are taking a lot of weird chances with fakes and 4th downs.
Did you watch the Fox pre-game show? This is pretty much exactly what Jimmy Johnson told the Jags to do...
asit turned out the jags covered the full game as well, so it wasnt such an advantage play in the end..But a win is a win.
Quote: LarrySwhen making my bets today I couldnt resist a halftime bet in a 2 team parlay, Jags +19.5. Considering the full game spread, 19.5 seemed a good value.
asit turned out the jags covered the full game as well, so it wasnt such an advantage play in the end..But a win is a win.
Wasn't it just a two point game at halftime? Was the halftime spread really 19.5? More than two td's and a field goal for a half? Really, 19.5?!?!
Quote: SOOPOOWasn't it just a two point game at halftime? Was the halftime spread really 19.5? More than two td's and a field goal for a half? Really, 19.5?!?!
I'm not sure what you are asking here. Will Hill had the bet at halftime as Denver -14, which pushed. Maybe he meant the first half or a 2nd half line before the game started.
Quote: WizardI have Jags money line today (10/27) at +1,000. As a 15.5-point underdog, I put it fair at +771. Wish me positive variance. I'll need 1.2 standard deviations of it.
Good variance! Good bet, I think. Edit: *truncated.
Quote: WizardI have Jags money line today (10/27) at +1,000. As a 15.5-point underdog, I put it fair at +771. Wish me positive variance. I'll need 1.2 standard deviations of it.
I do wish you Positive Variance! You've got guts, I know it's a good bet, but that still takes some guts.
Quote: beachbumbabs... and they're due.
Never say anything is due when it comes to gambling, unless you're trying to make me angry.
Quote: WizardI have Jags money line today (10/27) at +1,000. As a 15.5-point underdog, I put it fair at +771. Wish me positive variance. I'll need 1.2 standard deviations of it.
Do poorer weather conditions lead to more upsets? I was always under the impression they do, but I have nothing to back that up. But if so...this should help. Good luck!
Tonight:
Rain and wind. Low around 55F. Winds SSW at 20 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Rainfall around a half an inch. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.
Quote: WizardNever say anything is due when it comes to gambling, unless you're trying to make me angry.
Oops. Deleting immediately. Saw the flames roar on either side of the mighty image.
I wonder what the line is on the Jags or the Bucs winning first.
To add to the pain, I also didn't have the Rams, who were a 9-point underdog. I drove all the way to the Red Rock this morning to get them at +375, but in the 15 minutes it took to drive there the line moved to the point it wasn't a good bet any longer. Some other sharp bettor obviously popped it.
Quote: WizardIn case anyone is wondering, I did NOT have Jaguars money line today (Nov 10). They were a 12.5-point underdog against the Titans. I put the money line fair at +519. Some places on the Strip had them at +550, but the three casinos by my house (Red Rock, Suncoast, and Rampart) all them them at +500. It wasn't worth making a trip to the Strip for a thin edge.
To add to the pain, I also didn't have the Rams, who were a 9-point underdog. I drove all the way to the Red Rock this morning to get them at +375, but in the 15 minutes it took to drive there the line moved to the point it wasn't a good bet any longer. Some other sharp bettor obviously popped it.
Damn. Very sorry to hear you didn't get the bets down. Things looked to be running your way today.
Quote: WizardIn case anyone is wondering, I did NOT have Jaguars money line today (Nov 10). They were a 12.5-point underdog against the Titans. I put the money line fair at +519. Some places on the Strip had them at +550, but the three casinos by my house (Red Rock, Suncoast, and Rampart) all them them at +500. It wasn't worth making a trip to the Strip for a thin edge.
$31.usd is a "thin edge"? Aren't there unemployed people in Las Vegas who would make such a run for you for perhaps $10.usd? I guess finding someone you can trust etc. would be difficult......but to many, that's no "thin edge", it's a meal and a room. I also just read a story about betting by phone(an application of some sort) if you live in Nevada. Check with South Point and Jimmy Vaccaro.
Quote: beachbumbabsDamn. Very sorry to hear you didn't get the bets down. Things looked to be running your way today.
I did have Panthers money line at +230. I also have two 6-team parlays that hinge on Dallas +6.5 on tonight's game. If that hits I'll still have a very good day.
Quote: NokTangAren't there unemployed people in Las Vegas who would make such a run for you for perhaps $10.usd? I guess finding someone you can trust etc. would be difficult......but to many, that's no "thin edge", it's a meal and a room. I also just read a story about betting by phone(an application of some sort) if you live in Nevada. Check with South Point and Jimmy Vaccaro.
Once I gave a so-called friend some money to bet for me, and he blew it on his own gambling. Eventually he paid me back, but it caused a lot of sore feelings.
I should write about this in-depth sometime, but I've lost a lot of money trusting other professional gamblers. If I had it all to do over again I would be a lot less trusting of other people, sad to say.
Forget all them bullshit movies with a working stiff owing a bookie 6 figures. Does not happen. A bookie could not buy his wife a Cadillac with some guys broken leg. Not only did bettors have strict limits with bookies, that same thing was true among bookies.
Once Henry wanted to bet several hundred on a night baseball game. He called Julius but the Lord refused to take the bet.
WHY ? Because the Lord owed Henry 10K + That was their cut number 10K. PERIOD. The Lord would set a precedent if he took that bet. Henry had to collect. Actually Henry sent me to the Oasis Club. The Lord was sharp. When I showed up, He called Henry at the poolroom, then had me talk to Henry ??? WTF ?
I said, Hi Henry I'm here. Then Julius took back the phone and asked Henry if he wanted him to give the money to the guy he had just talked to on the phone> Talk about sharp. Anyway I drove straight back to the poolroom and was glad to get rid of that envelope.
That was 2 years salary for a butcher in Meat Cutter's Union. I know. I was worked as grocery clerk making 67.50 a week and butchers pulled down $100 a week. Now if store even has a real butcher, the head cashier makes more than him. Anyway Julius
was impressed that Henry sent me and I later collected for the Lord.
But give a gambler money to place a bet for you ? Good way to lose a friend.
Also do you need to hold onto or claim the ticket afterwards or can you just give the ticket to the person right after it is printed out.
I felt bad when people like the Wizard were getting limited on how many bets they could place on certain games and parlay cards.
Well hope it works out with your guys' sports bets.
Quote: BuzzardVery few "professional " gamblers can be trusted with money.
Professional gamblers are the most honorable people on the planet. But beware of imposters. Just because someone says he is a professional gambler doesn't mean he IS one. There are a lot of cheap imitations out there. I didn't even get back ten cents on the dollar loaning money to those yahoos.
Quote: mickeycrimmProfessional gamblers are the most honorable people on the planet. But beware of imposters. Just because someone says he is a professional gambler doesn't mean he IS one. There are a lot of cheap imitations out there. I didn't even get back ten cents on the dollar loaning money to those yahoos.
I'm one to say that for every ten people who claim to be professional gamblers, only one really is, at best. It can take a while sometimes to tell what some people are. I've met quite a few people who knew a lot about advantage play, but were also compulsive gamblers, and would waste money on negative bets if no positive ones were to be found. These types, I agree, are generally not very trustworthy.
Quote: WizardI did have Panthers money line at +230. I also have two 6-team parlays that hinge on Dallas +6.5 on tonight's game. If that hits I'll still have a very good day.
Not looking so good there...
Wiz, I feel like someone's asked this question in the past, but how big a part of your income is sports betting? Is it just a little something on the side or a big component? Obviously if you prefer not to answer I understand.
Quote: mickeycrimmProfessional gamblers are the most honorable people on the planet. But beware of imposters. Just because someone says he is a professional gambler doesn't mean he IS one. There are a lot of cheap imitations out there. I didn't even get back ten cents on the dollar loaning money to those yahoos.
gamblers do not belong to a "profession" There are no overseers of codes of conduct or ethics. There is no "board of professional gamblers" allowing people in or booting people out
There is no licesensing requirements. A crack addict can call himself a "professional gambler". A mass murderer on death row can claim he is a "professional gambler". This idea that "real professional gamblers" are this or that is a slippery slope that people cant defend.
real professional gamblers are honorable? Heck John Patrick claims to be a "professional gambler"..and he tells stories all the time of how e cheated people throughout his life. He is not issued a certificate proving he is a professional gambler. All he has to do is delcare it to be so.
there is this romantic vision people have of "professional gamblers" the way they want to think they exisit.
And if a low life living in a crack den claims to be a "professional gambler" there are those who will contend that he isnt a "real" professional gambler
well lets face it, there are no gudelines, no agencies monitoring this....anyone can confidently claim to be a "professional gambler"
Dont tell me the proof that someone is a "professional" is that they make a profit or an income from gambling> Really? You mean if I was a CPA(certified public accountant). and I opened up my own business, and for whatever reason, the business failed......I am no longer a professional CPA? dOES THE LICENSING BOARD REVOKE MY CREDENTIALS?
even professional atheletes, who dont even have to graduate high school, can claim to be professional..because there are standards that they have to meet in order to keep being employed. If they want to be a member of good standing in that elite group..then they have to beahve and produce up to standards.
there are absolutely no standards for "professional gamblers"...I call theM full time gamblers or non recreational gamblers..since there is nothing even remotely close to a profession governing their behaviors
In that case everyone in the world is a "professional". People on unemplyoment getting paid for not working are thereby "professional job seekers".
the thing about "professionals" is that there are minimum standards that people have to meet in order to be deemed a member of that "profession"
there are no such verifiable standards that have been met by your professioanal baby sitter, your professional grocery bagger, or your professional gambler. They are just people who make a proclamation that they are "professionals".
I hope one day you have a daughter come upto you and says "hey dad, I am bringing home my boyfriend, it is getting serious and he may be "the one"....HE IS A PROFESSIONAL.....no not a doctor, lawyer,cpa,fireman....oh no he is a professional......security guard at walmart, a professional gambler, a professional parking garage attendent.
Quote: IbeatyouracesWho needs to have a governing agency over them to be a professional?
.
I Totally agree, if one gambles for a living, they are a professional gambler. No certificate or governing agency is required
Quote: WizardIn case anyone is wondering, I did NOT have Jaguars money line today (Nov 10). They were a 12.5-point underdog against the Titans. I put the money line fair at +519. Some places on the Strip had them at +550, but the three casinos by my house (Red Rock, Suncoast, and Rampart) all them them at +500. It wasn't worth making a trip to the Strip for a thin edge.
To add to the pain, I also didn't have the Rams, who were a 9-point underdog. I drove all the way to the Red Rock this morning to get them at +375, but in the 15 minutes it took to drive there the line moved to the point it wasn't a good bet any longer. Some other sharp bettor obviously popped it.
Can you recall what is the largest underdog moneyline wager you've ever won? In terms of odds on the dog I mean, not dollar amount of the bet
Quote: michael99000I Totally agree, if one gambles for a living, they are a professional gambler. No certificate or governing agency is required
sure, and if one babysits for a living, they are automatically a "professional baby sitter"
if tomorrow I decided to walk dogs for a living..I would be a "professional dog walker" by my own declaration
the cashier at walmart is a "professional register operator" who does it for "a living:" and therefore deserves the moniker "professional"
according to michael, anyone who does something for a "living"..can declare themselves "a professional".
a profession needs no standards, no best practices, code of ethics, or degree or certified training, or proof of proficiency?????....just the declaration that your "living" is made by your job duties....and a declaration that you are indeed a "professional"
the professional gambler is as much a "professional" as the professional baby sitter, the professional dog walker, the professional bussboy....these people all do jobs "for a living" and are guided by no specific professional standards, no best practices, no certified training, no proof of proficiency, no recognized standards to maintain. They are "professionals" by declaration.
there is this pie in the sky fantasy of "the professional gambler" being self sufficent, making his own hours, wearing nice clothes, going out and [playing craps or poker, having friendly banter with the other gamblers, eating well, with everything in life in order. No worries. The life everyone wants. The happy singing gambles like nathan detroit, and the others that populate the play/movie "Guys and Dolls"
But then there could be a full time gambler making money at back ally craps....to support his crack addiction. He makes money consistantly from it...he is a "professional" according to michael
hell, a person on welfare, who buys a lttery ticket every week, and hits for a million....and continues to buy a lottery ticket every week...is a "professional lottery player".
there are gamblers both full time and part time...successful and unsuccessful
there are baby sitters both full time and part time....successful and unsuccessfu;
there are walmart cashiers both fulltime and part time...successful and unsuccessful
but none really deserve to have the word "professional" before their names
Quote: michael99000Can you recall what is the largest underdog moneyline wager you've ever won? In terms of odds on the dog I mean, not dollar amount of the bet
I think about 20 to 1. I'm not sure exactly. It would have been on college football.
If the expected value of an individual's total action meets or exceeds the median income for that geographic region AND the person holds no other non-independent for pay employment, then that person is a professional gambler.
I don't think being or not being a crack addict is relevant, I'm sure there is at least one bona fide professional, at something, out there with a drug addiction.
Looks like $600 a week as a gambler and you are ahead of the majority of American workers.
Quote: Mission146How about this:
If the expected value of an individual's total action meets or exceeds the median income for that geographic region AND the person holds no other non-independent for pay employment, then that person is a professional gambler.
I don't think being or not being a crack addict is relevant, I'm sure there is at least one bona fide professional, at something, out there with a drug addiction.
actually being a known crack addict can help you lose your standing as a member in most professions.
it wont make you lose your standing in the make believe gambling "profession"..you can be a known crack addict, a known child molestor, a known murderer..and yet you can never lose your membership in the make belive land of the gambling "profession"
Quote: EdgeLookerSome players still call themselves "professional gamblers" even though they only had one good/great year and then lost every year since then.
being a member of a real "profession" should have nothing to do with earnings or lack of earnings
just as the example I gave before...A dentist can rent office space, buy equipment, hire a dental assistant, pay all the bills and for whatever reason come up short of profitability for years and years.....is he still a member of the "health profession"??? Sure. Just as the dentist 1 mile away who nets 500,00 a year after expenses. No matter what they earn they are both "health professionals"...as long as they do what they need to do in order to keep their licesces up to date.
A gambler can win or lose...can be fulltime or part time....
the idea that a successful gambler is a "professional",....and an unsuccessful gambler is not a "professional" does nto jive with what real professionals are guided by.
There are successful pole dancers......the ones that make money are "professionals"????
professional/ gambler////OXYMORONS
IF YOU WANT TO DESCRIBE GAMBLERS THEY CAN BE
full time, part time, successful, unsuccessful,
