Poll

4 votes (21.05%)
3 votes (15.78%)
2 votes (10.52%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (5.26%)
7 votes (36.84%)

19 members have voted

FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 20th, 2013 at 7:10:08 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

It's time to make your Derby picks.



I think I should post a new poll as 3 of the selections are not even in the Derby. But as of now, the 3 I will be using at the top of my exotics, and in my DD, P3, P4 are: Normandy Invasion, Orb, Overanalyze.

Verrazano is my 4th pick. He'd probably be top 3, but he won't pay anything, so instead I'm going to let him beat me, and put him in the back two of my trifecta.
JW17
JW17
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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April 22nd, 2013 at 6:58:54 PM permalink
Im still backing Java's War no question. I think Verrazano will be a very tough favorite to beat, havent said that since Big Brown. I may also take a shot with Will Take Charge. Im not sure how Ill play it this year, yet.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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April 22nd, 2013 at 7:34:20 PM permalink
Verranzano looks like the real deal with the best speed figs and a Derby running style........which means he'll get beat. Three favorites have won in the last 31 years. Favorites get beat all the time in the Derby for many reasons. Twenty horses equates into serious traffic problems. Twenty horses equates to lots of dirt being kicked up......kicked into 3 year old horses that in many cases haven't taken serious dirt and when they do, they spit the bit. Twenty horses were nearly half have already peaked. Twenty horses where a third won't take to the track/crowd. Twenty horses were a few will be feeling puny. Twenty horses where at least a third are so amped up that they will never run their race. Fractions are normally suicidal which takes out 3-5 horses. Extremely hard to win gate to wire.....War Emblem and then who? It's tough to pick a Derby winner.....I'm not implying by that statement that there are easy races. Good luck.
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
Joined: Jan 12, 2013
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April 22nd, 2013 at 7:49:03 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Verranzano looks like the real deal with the best speed figs and a Derby running style........which means he'll get beat. Three favorites have won in the last 31 years. Favorites get beat all the time in the Derby for many reasons. Twenty horses equates into serious traffic problems. Twenty horses equates to lots of dirt being kicked up......kicked into 3 year old horses that in many cases haven't taken serious dirt and when they do, they spit the bit. Twenty horses were nearly half have already peaked. Twenty horses where a third won't take to the track/crowd. Twenty horses were a few will be feeling puny. Twenty horses where at least a third are so amped up that they will never run their race. Fractions are normally suicidal which takes out 3-5 horses. Extremely hard to win gate to wire.....War Emblem and then who? It's tough to pick a Derby winner.....I'm not implying by that statement that there are easy races. Good luck.



Forgot the jockeys.....yes, the little monkeys can really F*** up a race.
Each day is better than the next
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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April 22nd, 2013 at 10:05:21 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Verranzano looks like the real deal with the best speed figs and a Derby running style........which means he'll get beat. Three favorites have won in the last 31 years. Favorites get beat all the time in the Derby for many reasons. Twenty horses equates into serious traffic problems. Twenty horses equates to lots of dirt being kicked up......kicked into 3 year old horses that in many cases haven't taken serious dirt and when they do, they spit the bit. Twenty horses were nearly half have already peaked. Twenty horses where a third won't take to the track/crowd. Twenty horses were a few will be feeling puny. Twenty horses where at least a third are so amped up that they will never run their race. Fractions are normally suicidal which takes out 3-5 horses. Extremely hard to win gate to wire.....War Emblem and then who? It's tough to pick a Derby winner.....I'm not implying by that statement that there are easy races. Good luck.



20 of the best young horses in America converge for the Derby. It's not surprising the favorite usually gets beaten. When's the last time you saw a Derby favorite at even money or lower? Derby favorites tend to be 4 to 1 or 3 to 1 and thus every horse is pretty much a long shot -- but someone has to win, and the favorite still has the best chance.
JW17
JW17
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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April 23rd, 2013 at 1:19:34 PM permalink
I agree with all of the above statements, but man its fun trying to pick the winner.


When Big Brown was the favorite he was 2.4-1. And I still try to beat him with Denis of Cork, LOL what an idiot!

Too short of a price for me though anytime when it comes to the derby
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 28th, 2013 at 7:00:08 PM permalink
Best price horses - Overanalyze, Its My Lucky Day. Maybe Goldencents if he drifts up a bit.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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April 28th, 2013 at 7:06:17 PM permalink
Quote: JW17

I agree with all of the above statements, but man its fun trying to pick the winner.


When Big Brown was the favorite he was 2.4-1. And I still try to beat him with Denis of Cork, LOL what an idiot!

Too short of a price for me though anytime when it comes to the derby



Big Brown was in post 20... I tried to beat him too. I still think he was juiced. Either way, all was forgiven in Lexington when he was nice to my daughter. He's a good guy in my book.
StingMe
StingMe
Joined: May 24, 2010
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April 30th, 2013 at 8:26:13 PM permalink
Some may remember that last year I had 225-1 on I'll Have Another on a futures bet. I catch lightning in a bottle twice, but of the 4 futures bets I placed, Goldencents at 75-1 is my ticket.
JW17
JW17
Joined: Dec 30, 2011
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April 30th, 2013 at 9:09:35 PM permalink
I do recall, curious who are your 4??

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