Kentucky Derby 2013
Poll
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| | 3 votes (15.78%) | ||
| | 2 votes (10.52%) | ||
| | 1 vote (5.26%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (5.26%) | ||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| No votes (0%) | |||
| | 1 vote (5.26%) | ||
| | 7 votes (36.84%) |
19 members have voted
March 31st, 2013 at 12:53:17 PM
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It's time to make your Derby picks.
March 31st, 2013 at 1:37:17 PM
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My early pick is Java's War. He really closed in the TB Derby. I think he wins the Bluegrass going away on the poly.
April 1st, 2013 at 9:16:26 AM
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Black Onyx with Joe Bravo.
April 1st, 2013 at 9:18:33 AM
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The field is always the favorite this time of year.
Looks like Pool 3 ended up with the field at 5/1 and Verrazano at 7/1.
http://admin.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u786/2013KDFWP3finalodds%26willpays.pdf
Looks like Pool 3 ended up with the field at 5/1 and Verrazano at 7/1.
http://admin.kentuckyderby.com/sites/kentuckyderby.com/files/u786/2013KDFWP3finalodds%26willpays.pdf
April 1st, 2013 at 9:42:18 AM
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I'd say the field is no longer the favorite. If it still is, it's not by much, and it certainly won't be after Saturday.
April 2nd, 2013 at 7:48:40 AM
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We have FinsRule picks. Only one horse coming through Oaklawn?
Each day is better than the next
April 2nd, 2013 at 8:15:42 AM
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Only 3 favorites have won the Derby in the last 31 years. The colts are still babies. Some with bad habits that can be corrected. Most have peaked, as they have been redlined in their two and early three year old campaigns and have run their race. If you can find a horse that you believe has room to improve and hasn't run it's race yet....well, you may have a winner. IMHO
Each day is better than the next
April 13th, 2013 at 3:54:28 PM
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Quote: JW17My early pick is Java's War. He really closed in the TB Derby. I think he wins the Bluegrass going away on the poly.
easy. I gave it to everyone.
April 13th, 2013 at 5:38:53 PM
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good job, what are you going go do with your 11.20? Oh I know, your going to parlay the 11.20 on Java's War in the Derby, to show. Nothing worse than a horse player that says....."easy, I gave it to everyone"........Quote: JW17easy. I gave it to everyone.
Each day is better than the next
April 13th, 2013 at 7:47:05 PM
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Why do you assume I just played him to win? I had him everywhere, and yes it hurts when I give you a winner almost a month ago
April 20th, 2013 at 7:10:08 AM
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Quote: FinsRuleIt's time to make your Derby picks.
I think I should post a new poll as 3 of the selections are not even in the Derby. But as of now, the 3 I will be using at the top of my exotics, and in my DD, P3, P4 are: Normandy Invasion, Orb, Overanalyze.
Verrazano is my 4th pick. He'd probably be top 3, but he won't pay anything, so instead I'm going to let him beat me, and put him in the back two of my trifecta.
April 22nd, 2013 at 6:58:54 PM
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Im still backing Java's War no question. I think Verrazano will be a very tough favorite to beat, havent said that since Big Brown. I may also take a shot with Will Take Charge. Im not sure how Ill play it this year, yet.
April 22nd, 2013 at 7:34:20 PM
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Verranzano looks like the real deal with the best speed figs and a Derby running style........which means he'll get beat. Three favorites have won in the last 31 years. Favorites get beat all the time in the Derby for many reasons. Twenty horses equates into serious traffic problems. Twenty horses equates to lots of dirt being kicked up......kicked into 3 year old horses that in many cases haven't taken serious dirt and when they do, they spit the bit. Twenty horses were nearly half have already peaked. Twenty horses where a third won't take to the track/crowd. Twenty horses were a few will be feeling puny. Twenty horses where at least a third are so amped up that they will never run their race. Fractions are normally suicidal which takes out 3-5 horses. Extremely hard to win gate to wire.....War Emblem and then who? It's tough to pick a Derby winner.....I'm not implying by that statement that there are easy races. Good luck.
Each day is better than the next
April 22nd, 2013 at 7:49:03 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddyVerranzano looks like the real deal with the best speed figs and a Derby running style........which means he'll get beat. Three favorites have won in the last 31 years. Favorites get beat all the time in the Derby for many reasons. Twenty horses equates into serious traffic problems. Twenty horses equates to lots of dirt being kicked up......kicked into 3 year old horses that in many cases haven't taken serious dirt and when they do, they spit the bit. Twenty horses were nearly half have already peaked. Twenty horses where a third won't take to the track/crowd. Twenty horses were a few will be feeling puny. Twenty horses where at least a third are so amped up that they will never run their race. Fractions are normally suicidal which takes out 3-5 horses. Extremely hard to win gate to wire.....War Emblem and then who? It's tough to pick a Derby winner.....I'm not implying by that statement that there are easy races. Good luck.
Forgot the jockeys.....yes, the little monkeys can really F*** up a race.
Each day is better than the next
April 22nd, 2013 at 10:05:21 PM
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Quote: treetopbuddyVerranzano looks like the real deal with the best speed figs and a Derby running style........which means he'll get beat. Three favorites have won in the last 31 years. Favorites get beat all the time in the Derby for many reasons. Twenty horses equates into serious traffic problems. Twenty horses equates to lots of dirt being kicked up......kicked into 3 year old horses that in many cases haven't taken serious dirt and when they do, they spit the bit. Twenty horses were nearly half have already peaked. Twenty horses where a third won't take to the track/crowd. Twenty horses were a few will be feeling puny. Twenty horses where at least a third are so amped up that they will never run their race. Fractions are normally suicidal which takes out 3-5 horses. Extremely hard to win gate to wire.....War Emblem and then who? It's tough to pick a Derby winner.....I'm not implying by that statement that there are easy races. Good luck.
20 of the best young horses in America converge for the Derby. It's not surprising the favorite usually gets beaten. When's the last time you saw a Derby favorite at even money or lower? Derby favorites tend to be 4 to 1 or 3 to 1 and thus every horse is pretty much a long shot -- but someone has to win, and the favorite still has the best chance.
April 23rd, 2013 at 1:19:34 PM
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I agree with all of the above statements, but man its fun trying to pick the winner.
When Big Brown was the favorite he was 2.4-1. And I still try to beat him with Denis of Cork, LOL what an idiot!
Too short of a price for me though anytime when it comes to the derby
When Big Brown was the favorite he was 2.4-1. And I still try to beat him with Denis of Cork, LOL what an idiot!
Too short of a price for me though anytime when it comes to the derby
April 28th, 2013 at 7:00:08 PM
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Best price horses - Overanalyze, Its My Lucky Day. Maybe Goldencents if he drifts up a bit.
April 28th, 2013 at 7:06:17 PM
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Quote: JW17I agree with all of the above statements, but man its fun trying to pick the winner.
When Big Brown was the favorite he was 2.4-1. And I still try to beat him with Denis of Cork, LOL what an idiot!
Too short of a price for me though anytime when it comes to the derby
Big Brown was in post 20... I tried to beat him too. I still think he was juiced. Either way, all was forgiven in Lexington when he was nice to my daughter. He's a good guy in my book.
April 30th, 2013 at 8:26:13 PM
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Some may remember that last year I had 225-1 on I'll Have Another on a futures bet. I catch lightning in a bottle twice, but of the 4 futures bets I placed, Goldencents at 75-1 is my ticket.
April 30th, 2013 at 9:09:35 PM
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I do recall, curious who are your 4??
April 30th, 2013 at 10:07:55 PM
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Goldencents
He's Had Enough
Brown Almighty
Res Judicata
I did not spend much time studying when I put these tickets together.
He's Had Enough
Brown Almighty
Res Judicata
I did not spend much time studying when I put these tickets together.
May 1st, 2013 at 6:20:14 AM
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I'll be in Las Vegas this weekend and by chance, it's Derby Weekend!
Bleacher Report Morning line: Kentucky Derby
Horse Points in 2013 Odds
Verrazano 150 points 4/1
Orb 150 points 6/1
Goldencents 129 points 15/2
Revolutionary 110 points 8/1
Overanalyze 110 points 10/1
Normandy Invasion 44 points 10/1
Itsmyluckyday 50 points 14/1
Javas War 122 points 16/1
Vyjack 70 points 16/1
Will Take Charge 60 points 20/1
Lines of Battle 100 points 20/1
Mylute 42 points 25/1
Palace Malice 50 points 25/1
Oxbow 36 points 35/1
Mylute 42 points 35/1
Black Onyx 50 points 40/1
Frac Daddy 44 points 45/1
Charming Kitten 20 points 50/1
Golden Soul 14 points 50/1
Falling Sky 30 points 75/1
Have PP's been drawn yet?
Anything jumping out at you this close to the race?
Bleacher Report Morning line: Kentucky Derby
Horse Points in 2013 Odds
Verrazano 150 points 4/1
Orb 150 points 6/1
Goldencents 129 points 15/2
Revolutionary 110 points 8/1
Overanalyze 110 points 10/1
Normandy Invasion 44 points 10/1
Itsmyluckyday 50 points 14/1
Javas War 122 points 16/1
Vyjack 70 points 16/1
Will Take Charge 60 points 20/1
Lines of Battle 100 points 20/1
Mylute 42 points 25/1
Palace Malice 50 points 25/1
Oxbow 36 points 35/1
Mylute 42 points 35/1
Black Onyx 50 points 40/1
Frac Daddy 44 points 45/1
Charming Kitten 20 points 50/1
Golden Soul 14 points 50/1
Falling Sky 30 points 75/1
Have PP's been drawn yet?
Anything jumping out at you this close to the race?
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
May 1st, 2013 at 7:56:29 AM
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Post positions are drawn tonight (Wednesday).
May 2nd, 2013 at 5:21:58 PM
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Post Positions
1. Onyx (50/1)
2. Oxbow (33/1)
3. Revolutionary (9/1)
4. Golden Soul (50/1)
5. Normandy Invasion (9/1)
6. Mylute (16/1)
7. Giant Finish (50/1)
8. Goldencents (11/2)
9. Overanalyze (14/1)
10. Palace Malice (25/1)
11. Lines of Battle (33/1)
12. Itsmyluckyday (12/1)
13. Falling Sky (50/1)
14. Verrazano (4/1)
15. Charming Kitten (25/1)
16. Orb (4/1)
17. Will Take Charge (20/1)
18. Frac Daddy (40/1)
19. Java's War (16/1)
20. Vyjack (14/1)
1. Onyx (50/1)
2. Oxbow (33/1)
3. Revolutionary (9/1)
4. Golden Soul (50/1)
5. Normandy Invasion (9/1)
6. Mylute (16/1)
7. Giant Finish (50/1)
8. Goldencents (11/2)
9. Overanalyze (14/1)
10. Palace Malice (25/1)
11. Lines of Battle (33/1)
12. Itsmyluckyday (12/1)
13. Falling Sky (50/1)
14. Verrazano (4/1)
15. Charming Kitten (25/1)
16. Orb (4/1)
17. Will Take Charge (20/1)
18. Frac Daddy (40/1)
19. Java's War (16/1)
20. Vyjack (14/1)
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
May 2nd, 2013 at 5:31:10 PM
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Goldencents WPS 20 ea.
Goldencents - Revolutionary - Normandy Invasion BOX Triple and Exacta for a deuce
Total $84
Goldencents - Revolutionary - Normandy Invasion BOX Triple and Exacta for a deuce
Total $84
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
May 2nd, 2013 at 6:52:10 PM
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Orb, Overanalyze, Itsmyluckyday, Revolutionary trifecta box.
May 2nd, 2013 at 7:32:24 PM
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Sticking with Verrazano. Still think he will be there and the price is getting better with all the Orb attention.
May 4th, 2013 at 11:09:04 AM
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Orb, Goldencents, Verrazano, and Frac Daddy trifecta box in addition to Goldencents futures ticket.
I made the mistake of not playing I'll Have Another in my exotics last year because I had the futures bet. From now on, when I pick a horse, I'm going to ride him!
I made the mistake of not playing I'll Have Another in my exotics last year because I had the futures bet. From now on, when I pick a horse, I'm going to ride him!
May 4th, 2013 at 11:11:47 AM
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I see that coverage starts at 1:00 pm Pacific Time, on NBC.
Does anyone happen to know exactly what time the actual race will be?
Does anyone happen to know exactly what time the actual race will be?
May 4th, 2013 at 11:17:21 AM
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Local news was stating 6:24PM Eastern time is post time.
May 4th, 2013 at 11:30:00 AM
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Thank you.
May 4th, 2013 at 12:30:24 PM
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I like Palace Malice as a long shot and he has some wet track experience. Not sure he can win but I am going to put him in a couple of my trifecta boxes with some of the favorites.
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
May 4th, 2013 at 12:58:17 PM
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I have Orb and Revolutionary exacta box $4.
My $10 longshot win ticket is on Oxbow.
The Wife wanted a $10 show ticket on Mylute after seeing Rosie on 60 Minutes.
The Kids each have a $2 win ticket on Overanalyze and Itsmyluckyday. They picked by names.
I have various $10 place and show tickets on the favorites.
Total bets: $92
Good Luck to all!
My $10 longshot win ticket is on Oxbow.
The Wife wanted a $10 show ticket on Mylute after seeing Rosie on 60 Minutes.
The Kids each have a $2 win ticket on Overanalyze and Itsmyluckyday. They picked by names.
I have various $10 place and show tickets on the favorites.
Total bets: $92
Good Luck to all!
I don't know everything but I know a lot.
May 4th, 2013 at 2:41:06 PM
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My pick is Orb (long time Shug fan)
As an aside - I had to laugh when the jockey from St. Croix (Kevin Krigger), the only black jockey in the Derby, called himself an African-American (reminds me of the Summer Olympics many years ago when the tv host from the USA kept referring to the black British winner of the race as an African-American - to which the Englishman kept retorting "I am not African-American, I am English" - this confounded the tv host) lol
As an aside - I had to laugh when the jockey from St. Croix (Kevin Krigger), the only black jockey in the Derby, called himself an African-American (reminds me of the Summer Olympics many years ago when the tv host from the USA kept referring to the black British winner of the race as an African-American - to which the Englishman kept retorting "I am not African-American, I am English" - this confounded the tv host) lol
May 4th, 2013 at 3:06:10 PM
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i'll take Orb
May 4th, 2013 at 3:09:10 PM
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Just a dumb ass question here. I voted earlier and I THINK that I picked Revolutionary, who I still like, for no particular reason. Is there a way for me to be able to check to see if my memory is correct? Thanks.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
May 5th, 2013 at 1:04:00 PM
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I was lucky enough to hit the Oaks/Derby double. A $2 bet where you pick the winner of the Oaks and Derby. Under my friend's advice, he thought there were a few longshots in the Oaks that could possibly pull the upset. So I played 4 longshots in the Oaks with Goldencents and Orb in the Derby. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR won the Oaks at 38-1. My possible payoffs were Goldencents at just over $900 and Orb at $621. When I cashed in my ticket, the guy standing next to me was cashing in his winning $1 superfecta ticket that paid over $28,000. I had several horses with Orb in exactas and tris, but had eliminated the #4 Golden Soul as having any chance to get into the money, Golden Soul ran second.
