Nate Silver Valuations for NCAA Tourney

Nate Silver, a statician, released his projected chance of winning each game for the NCAA Tourney: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/03/18/sports/ncaabasketball/nate-bracket.html. Based on some of things written about him he is a decent predictor. I am not sure of his formula for coming up with his projections, but I compared his projections with the Vegas line. Based on his projections, I feel the following Vegas Lines hold some value for the tourney:

1. Middle Tennessee St. (+3) vs. St. Mary's
2. LIU Brooklyn vs. James Madison (+1.5)
3. LaSalle (+1.5) vs. Boise St
4. Wisconsin (-5) vs. Ole Miss
5. Notre Dame (-1) vs. Iowa St.
6. Michigan (-11.5) vs. S. Dakota State
7. Florida vs. Northwestern State (+20)
8. NC State (-4.5) vs. Temple
9. UNLV (-2) vs. California
10. Syracuse vs. Montana (+12)

The only game I absolutely disagree with is the UNLV/Cal game. I went to the PAC12 Tourney and even though Cal lost in their opening game, I thought they were clearly the best team in the conference. I think Cal posses some real matchup problems for UNLV.

Personally, I think Indiana has the easiest road to the final four and should be favored to win the whole thing based on their spot in the tourney. I saw that vegasinsider.com currently had lines of 7-1 for them to win the tourney. I think the two hottest teams in the tourney are Louisville and Ohio State. Louisville's bracket is crazy tough. Ohio State has a fairly easy draw and are currently sitting at 15-1 to win the tourney.

Good luck to everyone on your brackets.