March Madness

Last year for march madness at the Wynn, I placed - for the first time ever for me - some sports bets. I placed 8 bets and won 7 of them.

Based on this experience, I have concluded I am a genius at betting on March Madness games.

I will be returning this year to once again hurt that damn casino (with my huge $400 winnings).

I got some help from ya' all on here on how to do it.

I just wanted to say thanks -

They will probably write articles and books about me eventually.

Since I have a decreasing load of school work these days and I also have a gaggle of friends who went to Gonzaga, I did a quick analysis on NCAA men's basketball...

In the past 10 years, the chance of the basketball team ranked #1 in the first week of March eventually winning the national championship is just 10%; the average ranking of the eventual champion was 6.3; the median ranking was 4.5. On the bright side for Gonzaga, a number one seed in the NCAA tournament has won the NCAA tournament six out of the ten past years...

For deeper historical data, since the last year of the UCLA-Wooden Era (1973), the team ranked #1 in the first week of March has won the national championship 25% of the time, and a #1 seed won 58% of the time (since 1980, when seeding was instituted). Still the average ranking for the eventual champion remains ~6 and median between 3 and 4.

Since I am life long Kansas fan, with the Duke, Michigan, and Indiana losses, KU will probably move solidly into the 3-6 sweet spot...

Not sure on this analysis, but considering that the defending nation champion UK was the #1 ranked team the first week of March, the odds that the team ranked #1 during the first week of March will win the national championship TWO years in a row seems to be 50%. 6 times the #1 ranked team went on to win the national championship and the next year a non-#1 ranked team won, and 3 times the #1 ranked team won the following year. (73/UCLA-74/NC State; 92/Duke-93/UNC; 95/UCLA-96/UK).

I would take some shots on some upsets against the money line. Virtually every year, at least one 12 seed upsets a 5 seed and almost every other year a 13 upsets a 4.