Super Bowl 47 Safety and Extra Point Props
Safety Yes+600/No-1000
Missed Extra Point Yes+900/No-2000
Blocked Punt Yes+650/No-1200
2 Pt. Conversion Yes+350/No-500
Should I bet the No on these now or wait?
Quote: AyecarumbaDoes "Missed Extra Point" include a blocked XPA that is recovered in the end zone for two points?
As I recall, in the NFL, a blocked extra point attempt immediately becomes a dead ball. The offense (nor the defense) can recover and score.
NO 2pt conversion -540
Safety? NO -1500
Will there be a Safety?
Yes +900: 45 bets
No -1300: 0 bets
This is an excellent example why the value lies with NO SAFETY.
The squares will always bet YES. The sharps will wait, and wait, then bet NO.
@DavidPurdum
Quote: 98ClubsPinnacle NO Safety -1410
NO 2pt conversion -540
Monday Jan 28 9PM EST
NO Safety -1280
No 2pt Conv. -560
Quote: WizardThree bets I make every year are no safety, no overtime, and no 2-point conversion. I've noticed that I always get a better price if I bide my time and bet them the day of the Super Bowl. I think that is when all the squares arrive and bet it the other way. I would bet that I'll be able to get -900 or better on no safety before game time.
What are your thoughts on a parlay with these three bets? Seems like a decent way to maximize the return from these unlikely events.
Quote: semajWhat are your thoughts on a parlay with these three bets? Seems like a decent way to maximize the return from these unlikely events.
Not sure if you can parlay the prop bets in Vegas? When I was booking bets, I never took parlays on prop wagers.
Too many props could be correlated.
How did that work out for you last year Wiz? :)Quote: WizardThree bets I make every year are no safety, no overtime, and no 2-point conversion. I've noticed that I always get a better price if I bide my time and bet them the day of the Super Bowl. I think that is when all the squares arrive and bet it the other way. I would bet that I'll be able to get -900 or better on no safety before game time.
Quote: semajWhat are your thoughts on a parlay with these three bets? Seems like a decent way to maximize the return from these unlikely events.
You can't parlay props, unfortunately. If you could, I'd be looking for correlations and betting them.
Quote:I like no Safety, but no 2pt Conversion is a little scary because it's not really a random event like the others.
Just considering the point spread and total on the game, I put the probability of a 2-point conversion at 1 in 7, for a fair line of -600. I think the line is about -450 now, but I think the price will drop on game day.
Quote: WizardYou can't parlay props, unfortunately. If you could, I'd be looking for correlations and betting them.
You can at Bovada/Bodog. For the three bets you mentioned you would be laying $232 to win $100.
I like the safety bet.
Quote: Sporting NewsAccording to the NFL, since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, 142 safeties have been credited to defensive players and 29 resulted from offensive penalties in the end zone. That’s 171 in 2,816 games, or one every 16.47 games.
In the 46 Super Bowls, there have been seven safeties (five by the defense, two by penalties.) That’s one in every 6.57 games.
Read the whole article here
Quote: cclub79I like no Safety, but no 2pt Conversion is a little scary because it's not really a random event like the others. The attempt is a coach's choice and then it can be successful or fail. I could see one of the Harbaughs going for a fake or being forced to go for 2.
Considering the coaches, I think it a bit more likely than usual. Score -2, -5, or -9 either way I strongly believe there will be at least the attempt, and thats "by the book" to make it a one score game. EDITED: Pinnacle Line is +215 on any 2pt Try.
Quote: AyecarumbaOn a strict comparison of occurances per game played, safeties are much more common in the Superbowl than during the rest of the season
I could be wrong, but I would attribute that to random variation. In the 2713 games I have such data for the percentage with a safety is about 5%. The probability of seeing seven or more safeties in 46 games, assuming a 5% chance in each one, is 1 in 133.
Quote: 1arrowheaddrBovada has it. I first saw it at 2:15 but it's at 2:10 now. I read on twitter you could get at nice middle between 2:07 and 2:15 for a while yesterday.
I just didn't see that there Sunday, might have missed it. Nice, will check out later.
Quote: thecesspitHas any book got a over/under for the length of the national anthem yet? That's one of my favourites to look at. Also the TV commentators and cameras (time mentioning a player or a shot a players wife).
You won't see a bet like that offered in a Vegas casino. All wagers must be decided on the field.
Quote: 1arrowheaddrWiz, have you ever bet on the extra point prop? Only six were missed all year in the NFL for success rate of 99.49%
Yes, I've bet the "no" on a missed extra point. That one is hard to find and you really have to lay a lot.
Quote: bbvk05Bovada has -190 on "No Special Teams or Defensive TD for either team." That seems like a pretty good bet--- just reasoning from my gut. Anybody with a database have thoughts?
I've bet the NO that one lots of times on previous Super Bowls, and have not done well on it. If I remember correctly, I've seen -170 in the past.
Quote: WizardI've bet the NO that one lots of times on previous Super Bowls, and have not done well on it. If I remember correctly, I've seen -170 in the past.
My numbers show about -210 to be a fair bet. If i see - 170 I will bet it.
Quote: DRichMy numbers show about -210 to be a fair bet. If i see - 170 I will bet it.
Check this out:
Quote:SUPER BOWL XLVII - What will the First Special Teams or Defensive Touchdown scored in the game be?
Game must go 55 minutes for action. Overtime counts towards wager.
4:45p
Pass Interception for a TD
+350
Fumble Return for a TD
+550
Kickoff Return for a TD
+650
Punt Return for a TD
+550
No Special Teams TD in the game
-190
The question here is: does "No Special Teams TD in the game" literally mean no special teams td... or does it mean no special teams OR defensive td. This is a poorly worded prop.
By the terms of the bet line it only mentions special teams. But the question it is placed after mentions defense too. -190 would be a great value if it were no special teams only.
Quote: WizardI've bet the NO that one lots of times on previous Super Bowls, and have not done well on it. If I remember correctly, I've seen -170 in the past.
Wizard, are there any SB Props that you like to take the odds on?
Quote: FinsRulePoorly worded, but it has to mean special teams or defensive. That is what it says on the top.
I agree that's probably what is intended... But the top makes a distinction between special teams and D... Meaning they aren't the same thing. The bottom is very clear and makes no such distinction.
Quote: DRichMy numbers show about -210 to be a fair bet. If i see - 170 I will bet it.
It just fell to -180. Also, the "No special teams TD" prop that is confusingly worded and placed is -190. These separate lines with different values make me think that it really is 'no special teams' and not 'no special teams OR defensive TD'.
I called bovada, their people didn't understand the question and couldn't give me an answer.
"Please be advised that the option "No Special Teams TD in the game" will be settled as a 'Win' if the Defense scores a Touchdown on the Special Team's play while it will be settled as a 'Loss' if the Special Teams scores on the game."
So it looks like it does not include a defensive TD, and seems like a good value at -190.
I interpret this as: The defense recovering a turnover during an offensive special teams play (blocked punt, fumbled kick-off) and running it in for a touchdown... does not hurt you. However, a turnover and touchdown during a "non-special teams" play, (e.g., an interception and runback for a touchdown) means you lose (since "Special Teams" were not involved).Quote: bbvk05... 'Win' if the Defense scores a Touchdown on the Special Team's play...
Quote: AyecarumbaI interpret this as: The defense recovering a turnover during an offensive special teams play (blocked punt, fumbled kick-off) and running it in for a touchdown... does not hurt you. However, a turnover and touchdown during a "non-special teams" play, (e.g., an interception and runback for a touchdown) means you lose (since "Special Teams" were not involved).Quote: bbvk05... 'Win' if the Defense scores a Touchdown on the Special Team's play...
See, it is so vague and contradictory that I am not sure.
Quote: 98ClubsMonday Jan 28 9PM EST
NO Safety -1280
No 2pt Conv. -560
Midnight (1201AM EST Sunday Pinnacle)
NO Safety -1450
NO 2pt Conv. -495
Game Line: Balt. +4 -105, SF -4 -105
$$$ LINE Balt +170, SF -190
O/U (47.5) OVER -105 UNDER -110
Last Update for me GL & GG
Quote: 98ClubsMidnight (1201AM EST Sunday Pinnacle)
NO Safety -1450
NO 2pt Conv. -495
Game Line: Balt. +4 -105, SF -4 -105
$$$ LINE Balt +170, SF -190
O/U (47.5) OVER -105 UNDER -110
Last Update for me GL & GG
Bovada still has no safety for -1000
Quote: WizardSo far I've bet no overtime at -900 (Golden Nugget) and no 3-point conversion at -400 (Bovada). I'm still holding out for -900 on no safety, and hope to see it today, after the squares have had two days to bet into it. I think I saw -1000 somewhere in Vegas.
Mike- can I have some of your action on the no 3-point conversion?
I'll take that at minus 1,957,901!Quote: SOOPOOMike- can I have some of your action on the no 3-point conversion?
Quote: SOOPOOMike- can I have some of your action on the no 3-point conversion?
Sorry. That is a good price and I am going to be selfish and keep it for myself.
Quote: avargovWould a field goal be considered a "3-point conversion"? ;-)
Only in field hockey.
Quote: SOOPOOMike- can I have some of your action on the no 3-point conversion?
Do'h!
Quote: WizardI would bet that I'll be able to get -900 or better on no safety before game time.
I just got -900 on no safety at the Palazzo, not to mention -850 on no overtime.
