thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 2nd, 2013 at 9:57:59 AM permalink
Spun off another thread - predict the playoffs.

Give each team a unique score from 1 to 12. For each game they win in the playoffs, you score that many points. Player with the most points, wins.

Tie breaker is, in order :

1 - Ranking the superbowl winner highest.
2 - Ranking the runner up highest
3 - Closest prediction to the total points scored in the superbowl. Prediction to be made if necessary once 'bowl finalists are known. If still tied, shared victory.

For example, you give Green Bay 10 points and Minnesota 2. If Green Bay win this weekend, you score 10. If the Vikes win, you score 2. If they then win in the next round, you get another 2 points.

Send predictions to me by PM or in the thread. If there's 10 or more entrants, I'll paypal the winner $25.

Deadline for predictions, kick off on Saturday (using the timestamps here). If I've made any loopholes... let me know.

My predictions are as follows.

NFC:
Seattle - 11
Green Bay - 10
San Francisco - 6
Atlanta - 5
Washington - 4
Minnesota - 3

AFC:
Denver - 12
New England - 9
Houston - 8
Indianopolis - 7
Baltimore - 2
Cincinatti - 1

Anyone else fancy trying the same and seeing how we score on here? First tie breaker is the person who ranked the Superbowl winner highest, the second the runners up, and the third tie breaker total points scored in the superbowl (predictions made in the run up to the 'bowl).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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January 2nd, 2013 at 10:06:22 AM permalink
Green Bay 12
New England 11
Denver 10
Atlanta 9
Houston 8
Seattle 7
Washington 6
Baltimore 5
Indianapolois 4
Cincinnati 3
San Francisco 2
Minnesota 1
vendman1
vendman1
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January 2nd, 2013 at 10:36:46 AM permalink
Denver 12
Atlanta 11
New England 10
GB 9
Baltimore 8
Seattle 7
Washington 6
Houston 5
Cincinnati 4
San Fran 3
Indy 2
Minnesota 1
mwalz9
mwalz9
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January 2nd, 2013 at 11:55:50 AM permalink
Denver 12
New England 11
San Francisco 10
Atlanta 9
Green Bay 8
Seattle 7
Baltimore 6
Houston 5
Washington 4
Cincinnati 3
Indianpolis 2
Minnesota 1
steeldco
steeldco
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January 2nd, 2013 at 12:12:22 PM permalink
Atlanta Falcons 12
Houston Texans 11
Green Bay Packers 10
New England Patriots 9
Denver Broncos 8
San Francisco 49ers 7
Baltimore Ravens 6
Seattle Seahawks 5
Cincinnati Bengals 4
Washington Redskins 3
Indianapolis Colts 2
Minnesota Vikings 1
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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January 2nd, 2013 at 12:25:02 PM permalink
New England 12
Green Bay 11
Denver 10
Indianapolis 9
Minnesota 8
Houston 7
Seattle 6
Atlanta 5
San Francisco 4
Washington 3
Baltimore 2
Cincinnati 1
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
sodawater
sodawater
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January 2nd, 2013 at 1:47:18 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
Mission146
Mission146
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January 2nd, 2013 at 2:40:28 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Green Bay 12
New England 11
Seattle 10
Denver 9
Houston 8
Atlanta 7
Washington 6
Indianapolis 5
Baltimore 4
Cincinnati 3
Minnesota 2
San Francisco 1


Maybe Wiz wants to make this an official site contest? Wasn't there $100 laying around to be donated to the next contest?



It's obviously up to The Wizard, but we have been discussing something for the NCAA Tournament.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Buzzard
Buzzard
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January 2nd, 2013 at 2:54:14 PM permalink
Basketball not my long suit. Even planned trip 1 year to Vegas and forget about March madness finals. Every place was booked, took blind reservations thru online site. Pay x, then find out where you were staying. years ago and had to tell Josie we were staying at place we never heard of TERRIBLES. LOL
But am 1 and 0 betting buckets. Had NC state and 23 versus Houston. No brainer, I thought. Slamma jamma or whatever they were called always threw bricks from the foul line.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
aluisio
aluisio
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January 2nd, 2013 at 4:07:09 PM permalink
Denver 12
San Francisco 11
Green Bay 10
New England 9
Baltimore 8
Atlanta 7
Houston 6
Washington 5
Minnesota 4
Seattle 3
Indianapolis 2
Cincinati 1
No bounce, no play.
amidnitespecial
amidnitespecial
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January 2nd, 2013 at 4:39:59 PM permalink
San Francisco 12
New England 11
Baltimore 10
Denver 9
Atlanta 8
Seattle 7
Houston 6
Indianapolis 5
Washington 4
Green Bay 3
Cincinnati 2
Minnesota 1
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 2nd, 2013 at 7:18:33 PM permalink
Cheers, that's 9 entries. One more and I'll add some prize money.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Knuckleball3
Knuckleball3
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January 2nd, 2013 at 8:34:57 PM permalink
Bengals 1
Redskins 2
Vikings 3
Falcons 4
Ravens 5
Colts 6
Texans 7
Packers 8
Seahawks 9
49ers 10
Patriots 11
Broncos 12

Good luck all!
"In the poker game of life, women are the rake" Edward Norton (Rounders)
MidwestAP
MidwestAP
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January 3rd, 2013 at 6:42:15 AM permalink
Colts 1
Vikings 2
Bengals 3
Redskins 4
Texans 5
Ravens 6
Falcons 7
Packers 8
Seahawks 9
49'ers 10
Patriots 11
Broncos 12
ck1313
ck1313
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January 3rd, 2013 at 8:08:35 AM permalink
GB. 12
NE. 11
Sea. 10
Balt. 9
Den. 8
Atl. 7
Hou. 6
SD. 5
Minn. 4
Hou. 3
Cin. 2
Wash. 1
ck1313
ck1313
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January 3rd, 2013 at 8:10:41 AM permalink
Sorry for the mistake but I meant indy to be 3
Mission146
Mission146
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January 3rd, 2013 at 11:33:02 AM permalink
New England Patriots---12 (I'm a dirty, dirty homer!)
Seattle Seahawks---11
Green Bay Packers---10
Indianapolis Colts---9
Houston Texans---8
Baltimore Ravens---7
San Francisco 49ers---6
Denver Broncos---5
Minnesota Vikings---4
Cincinnati Bengals---3
Washington Redskins---2
Atlanta Falcons---1

My strategy is to hope that one-two WildCard teams make a deep run into the Conference Championships, at a minimum. By then, my hope is that a few enough amount of people have teams left (at high point values) that it doesn't matter what happens given that NE is going to win the Super Bowl.

If there were a way to have two spots, my other spot would be doing the exact opposite of this strategy.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 3rd, 2013 at 4:07:09 PM permalink
Maybe I should have charged for second entries :)

12 players now, so there's positive EV for everyone.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
sodawater
sodawater
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January 3rd, 2013 at 4:38:34 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 3rd, 2013 at 4:46:13 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I was hoping this thread would die at 10 entries so i could bank that 2.50 in EV and get myself half a latte at Starbucks



I can still get a large Timmies for $2.50 :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Beardgoat
Beardgoat
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January 3rd, 2013 at 8:38:33 PM permalink
New England 12
Denver 11
Green bay 10
Seattle 9
San Fran 8
Houston 7
Baltimore 6
Atlanta 5
Min 4
Wash 3
Cinn 2
Indy 1
StaticX285
StaticX285
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January 4th, 2013 at 9:46:52 AM permalink
Question: If I think the Broncos will win the Super Bowl and therefore give them 12 points, do I get 0 for wildcard weekend or 12?

Thank you!
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 4th, 2013 at 9:54:48 AM permalink
0... they didn't win a game on wildcard weekend.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
slyther
slyther
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January 4th, 2013 at 10:18:21 AM permalink
12 Green Bay
11 New England
10 Denver
9 Seattle
8 San Francisco
7 Baltimore
6 Houston
5 Atlanta
4 Indianapolis
3 Washington
2 Cincinnati
1 Minnesota
miplet
miplet
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January 4th, 2013 at 10:30:14 AM permalink
I was going to say something about simulating 100's of variations, but that would be a lie. Go Seahawks!!!!!!!!!

Seattle Seahawks 12
Baltimore Ravens 11
Denver Broncos 10
Atlanta Falcons 9
Houston Texans 7
New England Patriots 8
Green Bay Packers 6
San Francisco 49ers 5
Indianapolis Colts 4
Cincinnati Bengals 3
Minnesota Vikings 2
Washington Redskins 1
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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January 4th, 2013 at 10:41:06 AM permalink
I'm wondering if it is wise to evenly weight two fairly matched teams that meet in the wild card round. One team will definitely advance, but one will definitely be left behind. Is it a better strategy to overweight the team you think will win, and take your chances; hoping that the overweight team will advance to the championship (ala, Mission146's stated strategy)?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
marksam40
marksam40
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January 4th, 2013 at 11:01:34 AM permalink
San Francisco 49ers 12
Baltimore Ravens 11
New England Patriots 10
Denver Broncos 9
Seattle Seahawks 7
Atlanta Falcons 8
Green Bay Packers 6
Houston Texans 5
Indianapolis Colts 4
Washington Redskins 3
Minnesota Vikings 2
Cincinnati Bengals 1
deedubbs
deedubbs
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January 4th, 2013 at 11:01:44 AM permalink
Denver 12
Atlanta 11
Houston 10
Green Bay 9
San Francisco 8
Indianapolis 7
Seattle 6
New England 5
Washington 4
Minnesota 3
Baltimore 2
Cincinnati 1
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 4th, 2013 at 11:28:43 AM permalink
Loving the interest. Especially from long time lurkers, thanks!

I should give credit to my friend Aslo for coming up with this format (we have 8 people in our pool locally, but not all of them have paid up yet!).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Mission146
Mission146
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January 4th, 2013 at 3:49:36 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I'm wondering if it is wise to evenly weight two fairly matched teams that meet in the wild card round. One team will definitely advance, but one will definitely be left behind. Is it a better strategy to overweight the team you think will win, and take your chances; hoping that the overweight team will advance to the championship (ala, Mission146's stated strategy)?



I don't think so (obviously) and the reason why is because, if enough people participate in the game, someone is going to advance a couple of teams upon whom they are putting huge points. If you evenly weight a few WildCard teams, especially if you evenly weight them high, all you have accomplished is to guarantee that one of your heavily weighted teams do not advance. I would suggest that the winner will see at least three teams with eight (or more) points in their respective championship game. I'm hoping for two, myself, but equally hope that I bank some strong pointage in the WC's.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ncfatcat
ncfatcat
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January 4th, 2013 at 3:58:09 PM permalink
NE 12
ATL 11
DEN 10
SF 9
WAS 8
HOU 7
BALT 6
GB 5
SEA 4
MIN 3
IND 2
CIN 1

Hunch = Min VS NE in Superbowl Min wins first ever!
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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January 4th, 2013 at 4:28:42 PM permalink
I have not watched a single down of NFL this year (hockey is the only pro sport I care to watch - lucky me).

So, I am picking solely on the standing records, and nothing more....... pretty much the equivalent of picking a horse because I like the name.

ATL 12
DEN 11
NE 10
WAS 9
SF 8
HOU 7
MIN 6
BALT 5
GB 4
IND 3
SEA 2
CIN 1
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
EdCollins
EdCollins
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January 4th, 2013 at 5:58:39 PM permalink
12 - Green Bay
11 - New England
10 - Atlanta
09 - Denver
08 - Baltimore
07 - San Francisco
06 - Houston
05 - Seattle
04 - Cincinnati
03 - Washington
02 - Minnesota
01 - Indianapolis
EdCollins
EdCollins
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January 4th, 2013 at 6:03:02 PM permalink
I'll match the $25.00 paid to the winner. So now it's a $50.00 pool.
Face
Administrator
Face
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January 4th, 2013 at 7:29:57 PM permalink
Denver - 12
Seattle - 11
Washington - 10
SanFrancisco - 9
Green Bay - 8
Houston - 7
Indianapolis - 6
Atlanta - 5
Minnesota - 4
Baltimore - 3
Cincinatti - 2
New England - 0

That's not a typo. I'll refuse any points gained by The Pats. There's only one thing that Tom Brady can do that I'll look at as a positive, and that's retire.
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 4th, 2013 at 8:02:07 PM permalink
Quote: Face



That's not a typo. I'll refuse any points gained by The Pats. There's only one thing that Tom Brady can do that I'll look at as a positive, and that's retire.



What?

You (Omitted) (Deleted) (Censored) (Excluded) (Edited) (Modified)....how can you say that?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Face
Administrator
Face
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January 4th, 2013 at 8:44:27 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

...how can you say that?



It wasn't easy. It actual took quite a bit of personal effort. But I respect the Wiz's house, and I have kind of a reputation as a nice guy. The other positive things that I wouldn't mind him doing is quite a long list indeed, but is not fit to be listed while in the presence of polite company =p
The opinions of this moderator are for entertainment purposes only.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 4th, 2013 at 8:54:56 PM permalink
I like reading Fishing with Face and Firearms with Face over on DT. It's good stuff. But what you said about Tom Brady and NE Patriots...it hurt...I actually felt it in my chest a little as I read those words...

In all seriousness, though, why do you hate my boy Brady so much? Don't get me wrong, even though he never got the rings (well, one, but didn't start the game) I'd take my boy Drew Bledsoe back any day of the week as he is my favorite player of all time, but why the hatred for Brady?
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
FinsRule
FinsRule
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January 4th, 2013 at 8:55:07 PM permalink
New England 12
San Francisco 11
Denver 10
Green Bay 9
Houston 8
Seattle 7
Washington 6
Baltimore 5
Atlanta 4
Cincinnati 3
Minnesota 2
Indianapolis 1
sodawater
sodawater
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January 4th, 2013 at 8:58:37 PM permalink
deleted
Last edited by: sodawater on Oct 1, 2018
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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January 5th, 2013 at 6:17:55 AM permalink
I've only watched a couple of Cleveland
Browns games this year, and I'm not sure
those really count ! But this sounds fun,
so:

12 - San Francisco
11 - Denver
10 - Atlanta
09 - New England
08 - Houston
07 - Green Bay
06 - Baltimore
05 - Washington
04 - Seattle
03 - Indianapolis
02 - Cincinnati
01 - Minnesota
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
avargov
avargov
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January 5th, 2013 at 9:58:47 AM permalink
New England. 12
Green bay. 11
Denver. 10
Seattle. 9
Houston. 8
Indianapolis. 7
Baltimore. 6
Cincinnati. 5
Washington. 4
Minnesota 3
San Francisco. 2
Atlanta. 1

Sorry for the poor format. Typed at 70mph on phone.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
miplet
miplet
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January 5th, 2013 at 10:03:20 AM permalink
Hope I didn't mess anything up.

PlayerPointsDENNEHOUBALINDCINATLSFGBWASSEA MIN
thecesspit0129827156104113
SOOPOO0101185439212671
vendman10121058241139671
mwalz90121156249108471
steeldco0891162412710351
odiousgambit0101272915411368
sodawater0911845371126102
aluisio0129682171110534
amidnitespecial0911610528123471
Knuckleball30111275614108293
MidwestAP0121156137108492
ck13130811693275121104
Mission1460512879316102114
Beardgoat0111276135810394
slyther0101167425812391
miplet0108711439561123
marksam400910511418126472
deedubbs0125102711189465
ncfatcat0101276211195843
RaleighCraps0111075311284926
EdCollins0911681410712352
Face0120736259810114
FinsRule0101285134119672
JohnnyQ0119863210127541
avargov0101286751211493
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 5th, 2013 at 10:03:44 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

I'll match the $25.00 paid to the winner. So now it's a $50.00 pool.



Many thanks, that's awesome!
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
ncfatcat
ncfatcat
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January 5th, 2013 at 10:19:44 AM permalink
Quote: Face


That's not a typo. I'll refuse any points gained by The Pats. There's only one thing that Tom Brady can do that I'll look at as a positive, and that's retire.


I don't know, as much as I hate them after they beat the Panthers that one year I gotta say if there's no clear cut favorite in a year the Patriots will probably be there and take it.
Gambling is a metaphor for life. Hang around long enough and it's all gone.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 5th, 2013 at 10:20:55 AM permalink
Thanks miplet!

So....here's the average per team based upon the 25 players.....

DEN 10.20
NE 10.04
GB 8.88
SEA 7.48
SF 7.44
ATL 7.32
HOU 7.04
BAL 6.16
WAS 4.40
IND 4.00
MIN 2.84
CIN 2.40

Denver receiving the most points? Really? I think there are too many people drinking the Manning kool-aid.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
thecesspit
thecesspit
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January 5th, 2013 at 10:22:59 AM permalink
Thanks miplet for the grid, saves me the effort of setting it up, I'll add the extra entries I have from PMs. If you are playing check the grid is correct with your predictions. I will cross check, but another extra pair of eyes won't hurt.

{EDIT} We now have 26 entries... with 3 hours to kick off.

Taking an average weighting of each person's predictions we have :

In the NFC

Green Bay 8.62
Seattle 7.69
SF 7.50
Atlanta 7..38
Washington 4.19
Minnesota 2.77

In the AFC

Denver 10.15
NE 9.96
Houston 7.08
Baltimore 6.12
Indy 4.00
Cincinatti 2.54

Using this as a wisdom of the crowds strength indicator, this weekend :


Houston Beats Cincinatti
Green Bay Beats Minnesota
Baltimore beats Indianapolis
Seattle beats Washington

And

Denver wins the Superbowl over Green Bay.

I may or may not have placed these as bets this weekend :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
EdCollins
EdCollins
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January 5th, 2013 at 10:25:01 AM permalink
miplet, I think I see four errors:

Beardgoat: 2 for the Bengals, not 3.
deedubbs: 3 for the Vikings, not 5.
Knuckleball3: 12 for the Broncos and 11 for the Pats.
mwalz9: 3 for the Bengals, not 4.

Please confirm. Everything else looks okay.

I wrote an Excel program that determines the winner at the click of a button. If anyone is interested, I can upload it to my website, and you can download it at your convenience.
JohnnyQ
JohnnyQ
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Joined: Nov 3, 2009
January 5th, 2013 at 10:26:10 AM permalink
Yep, thanks to the "money-men"
and the admin's !
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
thecesspit
thecesspit
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Joined: Apr 19, 2010
January 5th, 2013 at 10:29:21 AM permalink
Quote: EdCollins

miplet, I think I see four errors:

Beardgoat: 2 for the Bengals, not 3.
deedubbs: 3 for the Vikings, not 5.
Knuckleball3: 12 for the Broncos and 11 for the Pats.
mwalz9: 3 for the Bengals, not 4.

Please confirm. Everything else looks okay.

I wrote an Excel program that determines the winner at the click of a button. If anyone is interested, I can upload it to my website, and you can download it at your convenience.



I have the above in my master Excel sheet. Won't quite do it at a click of a button.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
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