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buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 11th, 2012 at 2:08:10 AM permalink
Gee, I am only 4-1. Another off week. Hopefully I will improve next week. LOL
EdgeLooker
EdgeLooker
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September 11th, 2012 at 3:40:10 AM permalink
Well, my coin flipping skills were perfect this week! I knew I was doomed when I tried J's new roulette system of betting 35 numbers a spin and still lost my first 5 spins. j/k lol

Going to have to bust out the dart board for week #2 picks. :)

Thanks for running this contest Mission. I "REALLY" appreciate it! HA! lol
Johnzimbo
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September 11th, 2012 at 4:28:09 AM permalink
Weird...my plan of going 6-0 the first week didn't come to fruition. All I can say is, y'all best beware of Zimbo in week 2!!
Mission146
Mission146
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:24:46 AM permalink
I will say that EdgeLooker gave me my first tough decision in this game. I almost called his last pick a, "Push," but then it occurred to me that none of these are one-game propositions as the contest spans the entire season. For this reason, I decided to refer to it as, "No Decision."
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MidwestAP
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:30:16 AM permalink
But it will matter in the calculation of the percentage. If it's considered no decision, then you'll take it out of the calculation, but if it's considered a 'push', then it needs to be factored in at 50%.

By the way, in the summary, you listed JohnZimbo at .400, should be .333. Not a big deal, I realize it will be recalculated next week.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 11th, 2012 at 7:47:52 AM permalink
Quote: MidwestAP

But it will matter in the calculation of the percentage. If it's considered no decision, then you'll take it out of the calculation, but if it's considered a 'push', then it needs to be factored in at 50%.

By the way, in the summary, you listed JohnZimbo at .400, should be .333. Not a big deal, I realize it will be recalculated next week.



I thought about the first thing you said, as well, and decided that, for the purposes of winning percentage, I only want Wins or Losses. If you consider it in the context of an actual Sports Bet, a push doesn't matter, you get your money back is all. Applying the same principle because a Push improves your record if you are x < .500 and makes it worse if you are x > .500, from a sports bet standpoint, however, a bettor is neither better nor worse due to a Push, so I wanted to basically apply that principle.

Thank you for the second comment, it has been corrected. I really appreciate you pointing that out to me, and I would appreciate anyone else who points something like that out to me, if noticed. It's important because, while I probably would have caught it during Week 2 Standings compilation, maybe not. If I made a mistake once, it's a cinch that I could make it twice!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MidwestAP
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:01:16 AM permalink
Not a problem, I see your point and since you are the taking the time to run the contest (and adding addtional $), I defer to your position. Thanks again for putting this together.
Mission146
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September 11th, 2012 at 8:55:26 AM permalink
You're welcome!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:12:22 AM permalink
It is amazing how one's opinion of a team changes between just before the kickoff, and just after the clock expires.

I'm gonna owe alot of push-ups before the season is over.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Mission146
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September 11th, 2012 at 9:30:02 AM permalink
The problem with posting my picks is that I don't want there to be the impression of any kind of bias, or anything. If you guys will take my word for it, I would have ended up 3-2 this week. Perhaps I will PM my picks to someone who is not playing that way he/she can call, "Bullshit," should I ever tell a lie.

Indianapolis Colts +10 (Epic Fail)
St. Louis Rams +7.5 (Thank you!)
New Orleans Saints -7.5 (What the Helll just happened?)
New England Patriots -6.5 (Had I been playing, this was the, "Confidence Pick," but I'm a homer)
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 (This would have been the confidence pick were I not a Patriots homer)

I'm really pulling for Andrew Luck, by the way, so I think that may have had something to do with my first pick. I'l start PMing my picks to JB, if he doesn't care, since he's not playing. Based on my history of picking NFL spreads, I should finish about .530, but I have picked over .600 once in my life and under .420 once...lol

Andrew Luck, though, huge shoes to fill, pressure must be tremendous, and he's a good kid and a class act. He's handling it very well.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:18:13 AM permalink
" Perhaps I will PM my picks to someone who is not playing that way he/she can call, "Bullshit," should I ever tell a lie. "

A football tout telling a lie ? Why that would be like saying Jimmy the Greek would post different picks in his newspaper column than he sold to suckers ! OOOPS bad example LOL
bigpete88
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September 11th, 2012 at 10:46:23 AM permalink
I have a funny feeling that the final list will look different than the first week. All due respect to number 1.

Variance is something that we all should be familiar with. 5-0 and 0-5 happens. Sure did to me in MLB in the same week....ha ha ha
Mission146
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September 13th, 2012 at 9:19:21 PM permalink
The Lines for this week have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/#post180624
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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September 15th, 2012 at 8:13:45 PM permalink
Week 2 Updates:

1.) I would like to formally welcome BeardGoat to the game, as he has already submitted his picks. BeardGoat has also been made aware that Week 1 is effectively his, "Skip," week, so that is not an option he can exercise and any missed weeks will result in a forfeit.

2.) We had Seventeen players last week and I have received sixteen sets of picks for this week. Those who have not submitted picks (Two of whom played last week) will be sent PM's momentarily to remind them of the 13:00 EST deadline on 9/16/2012. The third person is an individual who announced his intent to start playing this week and has not sent picks.

3.) If anyone else would like to jump in this game, please PM me your picks no later than 13:00 EST on 9/16/2012, which is in a little under fourteen hours. This is the final week for any new participants.

EDIT:

4.) If either of the two people who played last week fail to submit their picks for this week, then this week shall be construed as their skip week and they will still be eligible to re-join the game in Week 3.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 16th, 2012 at 4:38:09 PM permalink
My picks this week couldn't have been much worse...

Cleveland Browns +7---No Decision
Baltimore Ravens +3---WIN
Washington Redskins -3---LOSS
Dallas Cowboys -3---LOSS
New York Jets +6---LOSS

It looked really could for me to go 3-1 during halftime of the early evening games, buy what can you do?

Mission146 for season: 4-5 .444
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 16th, 2012 at 4:58:54 PM permalink
Meanwhile I had another slow start in the WIZ NFL picks. Just 8-2 but it's bettr than 2-8, I guess !
Mission146
Mission146
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September 16th, 2012 at 6:53:45 PM permalink
Greetings!!!

I would, at this time, like to congratulate MidWestAP!!!

The results will not be released until late Monday Night/Early Tuesday Morning, but MidWestAP is the first player to post a perfect record and he is currently the only player that can do so this week.

Midwest AP finishes the week with 5 Wins, 0 Losses, 0 No Decisions, 0 Confidence Picks. His picks were as follows:

MidwestAP:

Indianapolis Colts (+1.5)---WIN
Baltimore Ravens (+3)---WIN
St. Louis Rams (+3)---WIN
Seattle Seahawks (+3)---WIN
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)---WIN

Great picking, MidWestAP!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MidwestAP
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September 16th, 2012 at 7:12:21 PM permalink
Thanks Mission. After last week's picks I destroyed my crystal ball with the bad vibes and found a ouiji board with positive karma just in time for this week.

When this wears out, the Magic 8 ball is next ;-)
Mission146
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September 16th, 2012 at 7:42:53 PM permalink
I'd go to tea leaves next, I only pull out the Magic 8 ball when it's really important.

I also think you're supposed to spell, "Magic," "Magick," or, "Magik," or something because that makes it more powerful. I ran around with this crazy girl who thought she could become a witch for about two weeks in H.S. (thing was, she was ridiculously hot) and that's the way she spelled it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ayecarumba
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September 17th, 2012 at 11:11:36 AM permalink
Thanks again for running this for us Mission146. Is it possible to have everyones predictions posted prior to the first kickoff (even if you have to move up the weekly pick submission deadline)? It would make it more interesting to see what everyone else picked, and also protect the game from any questions regarding collusion. Note that I am not making any accusations. I think you are honorable, and doing a great job. However, I do think it prudent to be as transparent as possible when there is a prize on the line (and I want to prevent any disputes when I go 5 for 5 each of the next three weeks....hehe).
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
buzzpaff
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September 17th, 2012 at 11:15:44 AM permalink
I trust Mission implicitly and consider the low entry fee, it's his show to run. I sure he welcomes any suggestions, but his time is valuable.
Mission146
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September 17th, 2012 at 11:22:32 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thanks again for running this for us Mission146. Is it possible to have everyones predictions posted prior to the first kickoff (even if you have to move up the weekly pick submission deadline)? It would make it more interesting to see what everyone else picked, and also protect the game from any questions regarding collusion. Note that I am not making any accusations. I think you are honorable, and doing a great job. However, I do think it prudent to be as transparent as possible when there is a prize on the line (and I want to prevent any disputes when I go 5 for 5 each of the next three weeks....hehe).



You're welcome, and thank you for the compliments throughout the post!!!

I would suggest that is not a bad idea, but neither is it the type of decision I would want to make myself as it is a Rules change. The original Rules were such that the Picks would be posted Tuesday.

If you would like, I would be happy to put the matter to a vote amongst the players. I will give myself the tie-breaking vote, if needed.

If there are any questions regarding collusion, I should imagine those could be resolved by PM forwarding (can we do that?) because there is no way, if so, to fudge the timestamp on the original PM. In that event, if there were any question about a certain individual's picks, or just picks in general, someone could even pick a player at random and ask for a PM just to ensure they match.

I do think we should vote on league transparency, though, in this regard. I will say that picks would be due by 23:59 EST on Saturday Night, because it is not often I can post before 13:00 EST on Sunday, would have to do it in the early morning hours.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 17th, 2012 at 11:26:04 AM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

I trust Mission implicitly and consider the low entry fee, it's his show to run. I sure he welcomes any suggestions, but his time is valuable.



I appreciate the vote of confidence, Buzz! I actually have no problem with the amendment, from a time standpoint, as it just presses my own personal deadlines a little bit. It would not take any extra actual time, though.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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September 17th, 2012 at 11:33:06 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

You're welcome, and thank you for the compliments throughout the post!!!

I would suggest that is not a bad idea, but neither is it the type of decision I would want to make myself as it is a Rules change. The original Rules were such that the Picks would be posted Tuesday.

If you would like, I would be happy to put the matter to a vote amongst the players. I will give myself the tie-breaking vote, if needed.

If there are any questions regarding collusion, I should imagine those could be resolved by PM forwarding (can we do that?) because there is no way, if so, to fudge the timestamp on the original PM. In that event, if there were any question about a certain individual's picks, or just picks in general, someone could even pick a player at random and ask for a PM just to ensure they match.

I do think we should vote on league transparency, though, in this regard. I will say that picks would be due by 23:59 EST on Saturday Night, because it is not often I can post before 13:00 EST on Sunday, would have to do it in the early morning hours.



Thank you for your consideration Mission146. I think the Saturday night deadline for submissions is fine, and vote for posting picks prior to the first kickoff on Sunday.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 17th, 2012 at 11:56:30 AM permalink
My picks are already in. I don't believe on over-thinking selections.
Mission146
Mission146
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September 17th, 2012 at 2:38:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Thank you for your consideration Mission146. I think the Saturday night deadline for submissions is fine, and vote for posting picks prior to the first kickoff on Sunday.



You're welcome.

I have also found that a Forwarded Message does not contain a timestamp of the message being forwarded, however, for verification, a screenshot of the original PM received does and absolutely cannot be fudged.

In any event, I will conduct a vote via this thread, and will send out PM's to the players so that they may vote. I'll send those later on tonight prior to compiling the Picks/Standings.

If we are going to do this, though, I will say that I am going to start posting the Lines on Thursdays, so I'm going to set a deadline for voting on this for Wednesday at 23:59 EST, that way I know what's going on for Thursday. The votes will be tallied up at that time, and the winning side will determine how we are going to go forward.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
SOOPOO
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September 17th, 2012 at 2:46:11 PM permalink
I vote for transparency. It also has an added value for the forum. My picks will be known to the rest of the forum, who may then make real money betting against me. I am already 1- 8 in games not involving the Patriots, and 2 - 0 in games the Pats are in.
Johnzimbo
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September 17th, 2012 at 2:50:49 PM permalink
I'm on the fence on this...can I sell my vote for a couple bucks? They way I have been picking games, those couple bucks will come in handy at season end.

Honestly, I have no preference, so I will not vote and will abide by whatever the others prefer.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 17th, 2012 at 3:13:53 PM permalink
It would not be fair to my subscribers. They currently pay $100 for my easy money picks and $2,000 for my 99 star specials
Mission146
Mission146
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September 17th, 2012 at 6:19:18 PM permalink
I'm going to PM players to vote on this matter after the Standings/Picks for Week 2 have been posted.

What is Being Voted On?

This vote is a measure proposed by AyeCarumba by which the Picks would all be disclosed prior to Sunday kickoff as opposed to the Tuesday after the game.

What is the Effect of a, "Yes," Vote?

1.) The first thing that will happen is that I will post the Lines on Thursday rather than Friday.

2.) Picks must be received as of 23:59 EST on Saturday as opposed to 13:00 EST on Sunday to allow me proper time for posting everyone's picks.

3.) Picks will be made publicly known sometime between 00:00 and 13:00 EST on Sunday.

When Must I Vote?

Voting is open until 23:59 EST on Wednesday, at which point I will tally the votes and the matter will be decided.

What is Your Position?

My vote will be the tie-breaking vote in the event of a tie. I have a preference, but will not disclose it at this time to avoid compromising the vote.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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September 17th, 2012 at 9:45:36 PM permalink
Week 2 Picks/Standings have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/#post181505

I mentioned the vote prominently on this page because I decided to wait until tomorrow to start PMing people, might as well give them the chance to see the thread, first, then PM if we don't hear from them.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
miplet
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September 17th, 2012 at 10:56:17 PM permalink
I vote to show picks before the games.
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
Mission146
Mission146
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September 18th, 2012 at 6:56:36 PM permalink
Current Votes For:

Miplet
AyeCarumba
SooPoo
Vendman1

Current Votes Against:

Chickenman (PM)

Current Abstaining:

Wizard (PM)
JohnZimbo
Buzzpaff
MidwestAP (PM)

The other eleven Week 2 participants will now be PM'ed.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 18th, 2012 at 7:06:46 PM permalink
1.) Vendman1 has voted, "For," in the Official Thread.

2.) There are nine players who have neither voted nor outwardly abstained.

3.) If this measure passes, Picks will be due on Saturdays by 23:59 EST. However, if there is anyone who does not open the PMs I have sent prior to this time, the tardiness of their Picks will be excused provided they make them prior to 13:00 EST on Sunday.

4.) MidwestAP who sees the positives of both ways, and mentions none of the negatives, abstains via PM.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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September 18th, 2012 at 7:30:17 PM permalink
No biggie to me. I post my picks as soon as I see the line on Monday. My own line is all that matters.
Mission146
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September 18th, 2012 at 7:46:09 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

No biggie to me. I post my picks as soon as I see the line on Monday. My own line is all that matters.



If anyone wants a winning record, just play, "Fade Mission146," I'm 4-5, so far.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 18th, 2012 at 7:58:57 PM permalink
UPDATE:

Current Votes For:

Miplet
AyeCarumba
SooPoo
Vendman1

Current Votes Against:

Chickenman (PM)
Beardgoat (PM)

Current Abstaining:

Wizard (PM)
JohnZimbo
Buzzpaff
MidwestAP (PM)
BigPete88 (PM)

There are now seven players who have neither voted nor outwardly abstained from voting.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 19th, 2012 at 7:22:50 AM permalink
UPDATE:

Current Votes For:

Miplet
AyeCarumba
SooPoo
Vendman1
StrictlyAP (PM)
EdgeLooker (PM)

Current Votes Against:

Chickenman (PM)
Beardgoat (PM)

Current Abstaining:

Wizard (PM)
JohnZimbo
Buzzpaff
MidwestAP (PM)
BigPete88 (PM)
SteelDCo (PM)

There are now four players who have neither voted nor outwardly abstained from voting.

Voting ends at 23:59 EST.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 19th, 2012 at 8:56:30 AM permalink
EdgeLooker has now voted for, via PM.

In the event that one more person either abstains or votes For (of the four who have not weighed in) every possibility except a For vote will be mathematically impossible and the matter will be called.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 19th, 2012 at 9:15:31 AM permalink
UPDATE:

Current Votes For:

Miplet
AyeCarumba
SooPoo
Vendman1
StrictlyAP (PM)
EdgeLooker (PM)

Current Votes Against:

Chickenman (PM)
Beardgoat (PM)

Current Abstaining:

Wizard (PM)
JohnZimbo
Buzzpaff
MidwestAP (PM)
BigPete88 (PM)
SteelDCo (PM)
MakingBook (PM)

There are now three players who have neither voted nor outwardly abstained from voting.

Voting ends at 23:59 EST.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 19th, 2012 at 9:22:03 AM permalink
Greetings!

It is mathematically impossible for the result to be any different at this time, so this ballot will be called.

With six voting for, two voting against, seven abstaining and three not present, the measure is PASSED by a vote of 6-2.

For the record, the remainder of the Rules will exist as originally moulded, the following is the effect of this vote:

1.) The Lines will be posted between 00:00 EST and 23:59 EST on Thursdays.

2.) Picks will be due by 23:59 EST every Saturday.*

3.) Picks will be made publicly known no later than 13:00 EST on Sundays, barring the unexpected.

4.) I will update games in-thread via Edit reasonably close to as they happen. I have been doing this via self-PM, but since the Picks will be known, there is no compelling reason for me to update other than in-thread.

*IF any player fails to open the PM pertaining to this vote, Picks made AFTER the 23:59 EST deadline on Saturday WILL be forgiven, provided that they are made prior to 13:00 EST on Sunday. Presently, this forgiveness can only potentially apply to two Players. All others have opened the PM.

Thank you for your kind attention.

So let it be written, so let it be done! (I've always wanted to say that!)
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
buzzpaff
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September 19th, 2012 at 11:46:18 AM permalink
And as it was written, so it was done !
Mission146
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September 19th, 2012 at 6:19:32 PM permalink
Briefly:

Only one person is yet to open the PM.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 19th, 2012 at 9:41:44 PM permalink
Week 3 Lines have been posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/2/#post182082

Please keep in mind that picks are now due by 23:59 Saturday. We are also using a different source this week as both Bodog.net and Bovada.net are missing a couple of games and I forgot that we might be doing this Thursday and tossed my USA Today.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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September 22nd, 2012 at 7:11:33 PM permalink
The Week 3 Picks Have Been Posted:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/2/#post183022

I'm currently 4-5, and I went ahead and added my picks at the bottom. There was no longer a reason to keep them secret if I am also posting prior to game time.

I would like to make everyone aware that Win/Loss updates for tomorrow will be very unlikely, and if there are any, they will be pretty late.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
bigpete88
bigpete88
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September 24th, 2012 at 7:41:46 PM permalink
There is about a 3% chance of winning, or losing, all 5 games at 50% (coin flip).

Some weeks someone will get lucky and someone else will get unlucky. Variance.

Seeing as this is a tournament, does anyone want to share tournament strategy to win??

I know something simple but not sharing. Trying to be a A.P.P. (Advantage Player Pig)

However, in the rare event that I win, and I will try, my winning goes to local Vegas charity of Mission and Wizard choice.

Wizard, no totals from you? A math guy.

Sincerely,

A.P.P.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 24th, 2012 at 8:48:54 PM permalink
Gee, I sure need help. I am in that 3% 5-0 this week. And a lousy 4-1 each of the previous 2 weeks. Guess I am in
over my head with all these EXPERTS !
Mission146
Mission146
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September 24th, 2012 at 9:21:58 PM permalink
Greetings!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/sports/11221-wov-picks-game-official-thread/4/#post183624

The results for this week have been posted. For those of you following how badly I suck at home, I have now dropped to 6-8!!!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
miplet
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September 24th, 2012 at 9:34:25 PM permalink
Quote: buzzpaff

Gee, I sure need help. I am in that 3% 5-0 this week. And a lousy 4-1 each of the previous 2 weeks. Guess I am in over my head with all these EXPERTS !


I went 5-0 this week too. Week 2 we had the same picks. I won't mention week 1 (2-3) .
“Man Babes” #AxelFabulous
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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September 25th, 2012 at 9:46:50 AM permalink
Quote: miplet

I went 5-0 this week too. Week 2 we had the same picks. I won't mention week 1 (2-3) .



Great minds think alike.
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