R.O.I. question

326 bets at an average unit size of 3 units. Up 64 units. What is the R.O.I? I figured about 6%.

Also, is there anything else to add to the answer?

P.S. There was quite a bit of variance which seems within standard deviation from what I have witnessed.

Thanks Again :-)

removed
silly

Quote: bigpete88

326 bets at an average unit size of 3 units. Up 64 units. What is the R.O.I? I figured about 6%.

Also, is there anything else to add to the answer?

P.S. There was quite a bit of variance which seems within standard deviation from what I have witnessed.

Thanks Again :-)

If your win rate is about 54%, your ev = 33.5673
stdev = 54.3098
You have a 26.8% chance of being in the red after that many bets.
Not a small number.
25 out of 100 cappers end up in the red after that many bets.
(Busting out a bankroll even sooner since most are horribly underfunded)

Being 64 units up is only a 28.76% chance

That is what variance is.
You really have the same chance to show a loss as a 64 or higher profit.

Also have the same chance of being up 88units or down 21 units
It could be better
the same chance of being up 142units or down 75 units

This shows the importance of making proper bets in relation to a bankroll.


At a 55% win rate (not really attainable by most over many betting seasons)
EV = 54.3000
SD = 54.2113
Gives still 15.4% chance of not showing a profit.
That is about 10 of out 65 cappers will fall in that losing range.

43.62% chance of having a 64 unit profit or higher.

the same chance of being up 163units or down 54 units after 326 bets/average bet 3
That is variance, cuts both ways.
Nothing any capper can do about it

the answer is 326 times 3 = 978 units ....you are up 64 units....divide 64 by 978 = 6%