TODAYS picks just a new header to make it easier to follow
Saratoga race 5...#1 Shakeira...in where she belongs with an explosive late kick raced here last year just missed with an excuse...bet at anthing above 9 to 5
Saratoga race 6...#1a Dance Card my scourses tell me she's even better then she looks on paper anything above 7 to 5
Saratoga race 10...#3 Holiday Abroad...has early speed has chased faster good at anything above 5 to 1
Monmouth race 10...#4 Trick My Hat....looks like her trainer figured out she wants the turf if she can beat the 6 she could make it 2 for 2 on the lawn...good at anything above 4 to 1
Quote: playstkidSaratoga race 4.....#1 Gitchee Goomie......just tons the class with a win over the course bet at anything above 4 to 5.
Saratoga race 5...#1 Shakeira...in where she belongs with an explosive late kick raced here last year just missed with an excuse...bet at anthing above 9 to 5
Saratoga race 6...#1a Dance Card my scourses tell me she's even better then she looks on paper anything above 7 to 5
Saratoga race 10...#3 Holiday Abroad...has early speed has chased faster good at anything above 5 to 1
Monmouth race 10...#4 Trick My Hat....looks like her trainer figured out she wants the turf if she can beat the 6 she could make it 2 for 2 on the lawn...good at anything above 4 to 1
These are tommorows PICKS FRIDAY AUG 17TH.....No Plays today thursday
I didn't look at any of the other races.
Quote: playstkidSaratoga race 4.....#1 Gitchee Goomie......just tons the class with a win over the course bet at anything above 4 to 5.
Saratoga race 5...#1 Shakeira...in where she belongs with an explosive late kick raced here last year just missed with an excuse...bet at anthing above 9 to 5
Saratoga race 6...#1a Dance Card my scourses tell me she's even better then she looks on paper anything above 7 to 5
Saratoga race 10...#3 Holiday Abroad...has early speed has chased faster good at anything above 5 to 1
Monmouth race 10...#4 Trick My Hat....looks like her trainer figured out she wants the turf if she can beat the 6 she could make it 2 for 2 on the lawn...good at anything above 4 to 1
GG ran out of money
SH won paid 6.70...4.00
DC never above 7 to 5 = no play
HA never went above 5 to 1 = no play
TMH ran 2nd...0.00 7.40
to date starters 7....wins 1.....place 2
6.70 7.40
Edit - Make that the 3 Asfare
Saratoga Race 5.....#2 Nelson Ave could pick up the piece if the suspect fav finds a way to lose yet again...would want 4 to 1 OR more
Saratoga race 6....#9 Colonel Bill always knocking on the door vs similar fields would want 5 to 2 OR more
Saratoga Race 11...# 5 Ladywell Court has a good late kick and could be a step better then these would want 5 to 2 OR more
ArlingtonRace 7......#6 Suntracer has been showing a good late finish, has a win over the course could be a sleeper at anything of 5 to 1 OR more
Arlington Race 8....# 2 Summer Front no explanation needed good at 7 to 5 OR more
Arlington Race 9....# 2 Leading Astray Has the late punch with no real speed in the field Good at 3 to 1 OR more
THE ARLINGTON MILLION RACE 11
#7 Willcox Inn wide open race here almost anyone in here could win BUT would be willing to take this guy at 10 TO 1 OR more has 3 wins over the course has good tactical speed could be dangerous.
Quote: playstkidTodays Plays Aug 18th Sat
Saratoga Race 5.....#2 Nelson Ave could pick up the piece if the suspect fav finds a way to lose yet again...would want 4 to 1 OR more
WON.... 10.40...5.30
Saratoga race 6....#9 Colonel Bill always knocking on the door vs similar fields would want 5 to 2 OR more
WON....6.40...3.60....went below 5 to 2 as they loaded into gate and is a win
Saratoga Race 11...# 5 Ladywell Court has a good late kick and could be a step better then these would want 5 to 2 OR more
WON but did not odds = no play
ArlingtonRace 7......#6 Suntracer has been showing a good late finish, has a win over the course could be a sleeper at anything of 5 to 1 OR more
SCRATCHED
Arlington Race 8....# 2 Summer Front no explanation needed good at 7 to 5 OR more
Ran 3rd
Arlington Race 9....# 2 Leading Astray Has the late punch with no real speed in the field Good at 3 to 1 OR more
WON...but did not odds = no play
THE ARLINGTON MILLION RACE 11
#7 Willcox Inn wide open race here almost anyone in here could win BUT would be willing to take this guy at 10 TO 1 OR more has 3 wins over the course has good tactical speed could be dangerous.
RAN OUT OF MONEY
TODAYS TOTAL = 4 RUNNERS...2 WINS TOTAL 16.80 ....PLACE TOTAL 8.90
11 Runners...........3 Wins....1 Second
WIN TOTAL 23.90 (BET 22.00)
PLACE TOTAL 16.30 (BET 22.00)
Quote: playstkidRAN OUT OF MONEY
TODAYS TOTAL = 4 RUNNERS...2 WINS TOTAL 16.80 ....PLACE TOTAL 8.90
Um.... paid 6.40 but you wanted to only play if it was 5 -2 or better. This is a no play, then? If on all the others you are using the final odds it seems unfair to use NOT the final odds on the this one!!!
Quote: SOOPOOUm.... paid 6.40 but you wanted to only play if it was 5 -2 or better. This is a no play, then? If on all the others you are using the final odds it seems unfair to use NOT the final odds on the this one!!!
READ THE summary notes for the day...what part of that didnt you understand ?
DUDE I HAVE HAD LIKE 4 WINNERS I HAVE TAKEN ZERO CREDIT FOR !
Quote: playstkidREAD THE summary notes for the day...what part of that didnt you understand ?
DUDE I HAVE HAD LIKE 4 WINNERS I HAVE TAKEN ZERO CREDIT FOR !
Geez- you don't have to yell! But seriously, to track the results, you don't think it is reasonable to just count the actual odds the horse went off at if you are saying take at blankety blank odds? Well now if you win I won't be including desert in the dinner!
Keep the picks coming!
I mean you ARE aware that IF i had said at the start of this contest to just play all selections...I would have had something like 6 winners in about 15 runners
HOWEVER as i stated (from the outset) being successful at ANY type of sports betting is about Getting Value and about getting a "Fair market Price" on your odds.
What Happened to BUZZ ? must be on vacation ? selections for today will be posted before 11:45 am est.
BEFORE Today starts 11 runners ....3 wins...($23.90) 1 second ($16.30)
SARATOGA Race 4 ....#1 Cosmic Energy....gets Dominquez back up has tactical speed with a decent late punch bet @ 2 to 1 OR More
SARATOGA Race 6...#1a Castellano back good early foot and an honest horse bet @ 5 to 2 OR More
same race #8 Splendiferous....won in toga last year gets Velazquez fits in terms of class could be a sleeper would want 9 to 2 OR More
MONMOUTH Race 5...#4 Major Hope....Just to much class for these throw out his last race on a soft turf would want 3 to 1 OR More
MONMOUTH Race 6....#7 Joey Whispers just an honest horse with decent early speed and a good late kick in vs a group with questionable hearts bet at 9 to 2 OR More
MONMOUTH Race 8...#2 Pearl Keys should be on or near the lead with a great late kick would want 5 to 2 OR More
same race # 10 Daddys Kiss.. two for two over this course has tactical speed and a decent late punch gets a jockey switch worth a bet at 5 to 1 OR More
MOUNTAINEER Race 6.
#4 Reno's Wildcat- live shipper from Tampa, off layoff, listed at 15/1 morning line.
Quote: playstkidTODAYS PLAYS SUNDAY AUG 19TH
BEFORE Today starts 11 runners ....3 wins...($23.90) 1 second ($16.30)
SARATOGA Race 4 ....#1 Cosmic Energy....gets Dominquez back up has tactical speed with a decent late punch bet @ 2 to 1 OR More
WON 7.50.....4.70
SARATOGA Race 6...#1a Castellano back good early foot and an honest horse bet @ 5 to 2 OR More
same race #8 Splendiferous....won in toga last year gets Velazquez fits in terms of class could be a sleeper would want 9 to 2 OR More
1a scrathed......8 Ran Out
MONMOUTH Race 5...#4 Major Hope....Just to much class for these throw out his last race on a soft turf would want 3 to 1 OR More
Scrathed
MONMOUTH Race 6....#7 Joey Whispers just an honest horse with decent early speed and a good late kick in vs a group with questionable hearts bet at 9 to 2 OR More
Ran Out
MONMOUTH Race 8...#2 Pearl Keys should be on or near the lead with a great late kick would want 5 to 2 OR More
Won but was short of 5 to 2 = no play
same race # 10 Daddys Kiss.. two for two over this course has tactical speed and a decent late punch gets a jockey switch worth a bet at 5 to 1 OR More
Ran Out
Today 4 runners 1 win 7 .50 ...4.70
TOTAL 15 Runners ....4 wins...1 second 31.40.....21.00......(not part of the contest But FOUR Runners who won but short of odds I wanted not reflected in the 31.40....21.00)
I would not wish this sort of vacation on anyone !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quote: MakingBookI'll take a shot-
MOUNTAINEER Race 6.
#4 Reno's Wildcat- live shipper from Tampa, off layoff, listed at 15/1 morning line.
Went off at 37-1? And ran like it, finished at or near the back of the pack.
This is why I book, instead of bet. Good luck to the OP- making money playing horses
is extremely difficult, if not impossible.
Quote: playstkid
Before Todays selections this is the Total so far.
TOTAL 15 Runners ....4 wins...1 second 31.40.....21.00......(not part of the contest But FOUR Runners who won but short of odds I wanted not reflected in the 31.40....21.00)
TODAYS SELECTIONS Wed AUG 22nd
SARATOGA Race 4....#5 Warm Hugs... just about the only horse in the race who shows he can be consistently competitive vs a decent pace bet @ 2 to 1 OR More
SARATOGA Race 8...#4 Desert Storm in where he belongs. Throw out his last race on the grass back on the dirt today bet @ 9 TO 5 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 9...#3 Zivo a consitent horse who gets Dominguez back up with a win over the course bet @ 2 to 1 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 10..#3 Street Dreams In her last 2 races she performed decently while near the pace I believe they have learned this is where she wants to run from
she could be worth a bet @ 5 to 1 OR More
Quote: SOOPOOSo before the August 22 bets, you have 15 horses, have bet $60 total, and have won $52.40, so as of now you are down $7.60, correct?
YES the primary goal here is the WIN bet....I am currently + a dollar and change in that pool.
As stated in the orginal post the object here was to illustrate that with good handicapping skills and by getting "fair market value on ones odds" the 15% house take out could be reduced to a VERY low single digit number and i believe i can even show A Profit in the win pool.
I have tracked by plays every so often....about 2 years ago i recorded 300 plays for an ROI of Minus 1 %.
Unfortunately i dont have the time to post that kind of sample size right now.
I think you MIGHT have also noticed I had about 6 selections where 4 horses Won BUT they did NOT meet the odds i was seeking and they are NOT reflected in the 15 runners.
Quote: playstkidTODAYS SELECTIONS Wed AUG 22nd
SARATOGA Race 4....#5 Warm Hugs... just about the only horse in the race who shows he can be consistently competitive vs a decent pace bet @ 2 to 1 OR More
SARATOGA Race 8...#4 Desert Storm in where he belongs. Throw out his last race on the grass back on the dirt today bet @ 9 TO 5 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 9...#3 Zivo a consitent horse who gets Dominguez back up with a win over the course bet @ 2 to 1 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 10..#3 Street Dreams In her last 2 races she performed decently while near the pace I believe they have learned this is where she wants to run from
she could be worth a bet @ 5 to 1 OR More
bad day at black rock today ran 3rd...3rd....2nd (0.00 3.50) and a ran out = 0 wins....... 1 seconds
Running Total NOW 19 Runners....4 wins...2 seconds.... 31.40....24.50.....stilll have 6 shots left in "the gun"
SARATOGA RACE 4...#8 Torment ran 2nd and 3rd last 2 outs vs some fast times should be very competitive vs these bet @ 5 to 2 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 5...#8...Wandering Kitten... appears game in vs a group who just cant seem to win good @ 8 to 5 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 7...#6 Arthurs Tale....just tons the class has been facing Way better this horse is an over lay @ 3 to 1 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 8..#8 Pianist...in where she belongs has tactical speed with a Huge late punch which is Always dangerous bet @ 8 to 5 OR More
SARATOGA RACE 9...#8 Nandira...ships in from canada this trainer is usally live when shipping in to Toga also Gets Velazquez Defintely worth a stab @ 7 to 1 OR More
A few questions...
1. I assume that all internet casinos, and land based Vegas casinos as well, match the track payouts?
2. If 1 is true, what is to prevent an astute gambler from betting $10,000 at the actual track on a nag in a lightly wagered upon race at the bell, after having made substantially higher bets spread across the world of possibilities (are there 50 separate sportsbooks in Vegas, and 100 separate internet sportsbooks?) on a different horse?
3. What will say, the Caesar's sportsbook limit me to betting to win on a non discript 3rd race on a weekday at Monmouth? What will an internet sportsbook limit me to on the same race? If I put out a challenge, what would you say the total amount you could bet on that race on the internet?
And last question.... When I was much younger and lived in NYC I occassionally went to the track, usually Belmont but sometimes Roosevelt or Yonkers or Aqueduct, to lose up to $4 per race. I had no intention of winning, and the few times I did I knew it was dumb luck, now we call it variance. How much of the pari-mutual pool is made up of people like me, who "like a name", or bet a "hot number", but really have no "horse' knowledge?
1. Yes
2. The pools are mingled from Vegas casinos. But they are not mingled from internet casinos. There was a case of a team (or maybe one person) doing just that at Thistledown. It worked, but then you need to count on the internet casino paying you...
3. Caesars sportsbook probably won't limit you much - Maybe 10k? The internet will limit you more. On a crap track, maybe $500. On a good track, possibly $1000. Definitely depends on the internet casino.
Last question - No real way to know. Off hand I'd think the smaller tracks would have more "dumb money", simply because there's less in the pool. At Monmouth, Saratoga, etc., it's going to make up a lower percentage.
But at the smaller tracks you're going to have worse horses with less predictability and more cheating.
Quote: playstkidTODAYS SELECTIONS THURSDAY AUG 23
SARATOGA RACE 4...#8 Torment ran 2nd and 3rd last 2 outs vs some fast times should be very competitive vs these bet @ 5 to 2 OR More
RAN 2ND....0.00....4.80
SARATOGA RACE 5...#8...Wandering Kitten... appears game in vs a group who just cant seem to win good @ 8 to 5 OR More
WON but did not meet odds = no play
SARATOGA RACE 7...#6 Arthurs Tale....just tons the class has been facing Way better this horse is an over lay @ 3 to 1 OR More
RAN OUT
SARATOGA RACE 8..#8 Pianist...in where she belongs has tactical speed with a Huge late punch which is Always dangerous bet @ 8 to 5 OR More
WON but did not meet odds = no play
SARATOGA RACE 9...#8 Nandira...ships in from canada this trainer is usally live when shipping in to Toga also Gets Velazquez Defintely worth a stab @ 7 to 1 OR
RAN OUT WAS 6 TO 1 WENT TO 7 TO 1 AS GATE OPENED I WOULD NOT COUNT AS A RUNNER BUT ITS YOUR CALL
More
21 Runners.....4 wins (31.40)...2 seconds (29.30)
Just an Interesting side Note I BELIEVE I HAVE HAD SEVEN Horses as not plays because they did not odds...of the 7 i believe 5 have won....I am a little to tire to do the research right now but be my guest if anyone wants to look up what the current total would look like on ALL selections.
ALSO MAYBE I FOUND A NEW ANGLE PLAYING HORSES I LIKE THAT ARE being hammered below odds i would like to get.
I also wanted to say to playstkid, I like the posts, but why is almost every pick you throw up the chalk? Give me something that I cant see. It is obvious you do your homework, but a lot of chalk, everyone can see that.
Anyway that was not to flame, I am just curious. I am an avid horse player and like to hear others thought patterns.
Quote: JW17I believe "dumb money" left years ago once almost every state in the union got casino's. Horse/dog racing used to be the only game in town therefore a destination where the lady's would bet the 4 because he was pretty or had the same name. That is long gone, I am 39 years old, and I am very young compared to the company at my local OTB. These guys are mostly very wealthy and very knowledgeble on the game. Yes we have the degenerate here and there, but they too know what they are doing to an extent.
I also wanted to say to playstkid, I like the posts, but why is almost every pick you throw up the chalk? Give me something that I cant see. It is obvious you do your homework, but a lot of chalk, everyone can see that.
Anyway that was not to flame, I am just curious. I am an avid horse player and like to hear others thought patterns.
for an advid horse player you might want to start by doing the research on the post above yours.....i can not help if the public has played down several of my 3 to 1 shots down to 9 to 5.....like you said most of the dumb money is long gone.
p.s. if your new to the thread you probably also dont know i am an asst trainer on a major circuit.
OH AND PS FOR ALL THE GUYS IMO Zenyatta is the greatest female i ever saw and yes that includes Ruffian who never beat a male....never beat an older horse...never won outside new york.
Quote: playstkidCURRENT TOTAL
21 Runners.....4 wins (31.40)...2 seconds (29.30)
Just an Interesting side Note I BELIEVE I HAVE HAD SEVEN Horses as not plays because they did not odds...of the 7 i believe 5 have won....I am a little to tire to do the research right now but be my guest if anyone wants to look up what the current total would look like on ALL selections.
ALSO MAYBE I FOUND A NEW ANGLE PLAYING HORSES I LIKE THAT ARE being hammered below odds i would like to get.
I went Back and Looked up what i mentioned above about ALL HORSES who did NOT meet my odds and thus were considered NO PLAYS
Had one PLAYED ALL MY SELECTIONS REGARDLESS OF ODDS 6 OF 7 OF THOSE Horses WON THEIR RACE !!! One ran Off the board.
THUS THE TOTAL WOULD Appear as such
RUNNERS 27....10 wins (63.30) THATS PLUS 9 dollars 30 cents based on a 2 dollar bet for an ROI of + 17% on a game with a 15% house take out
I didnt make those numbers up ALL 27 Runners were listed Well Before Post time i think the few of you who followed this thread are FULLY Aware of that.
Quote: playstkidI went Back and Looked up what i mentioned above about ALL HORSES who did NOT meet my odds and thus were considered NO PLAYS
Had one PLAYED ALL MY SELECTIONS REGARDLESS OF ODDS 6 OF 7 OF THOSE Horses WON THEIR RACE !!! One ran Off the board.
THUS THE TOTAL WOULD Appear as such
RUNNERS 27....10 wins (63.30) THATS PLUS 9 dollars 30 cents based on a 2 dollar bet for an ROI of + 17% on a game with a 15% house take out
I didnt make those numbers up ALL 27 Runners were listed Well Before Post time i think the few of you who followed this thread are FULLY Aware of that.
opps that 28 runners....still way way way in plus Roi land and SOPO i think you owe me dinner
Quote: playstkidopps that 28 runners....still way way way in plus Roi land and SOPO i think you owe me dinner
You are joking, right? You list horses at defined odds you will bet on, when they don't meet those defined odds, LATER, AFTER THEY WON, you then say those should count!!! You are quite a comedian! You owe me a double beef whopper with extra mayo and extra onions.
Quote: SOOPOOYou are joking, right? You list horses at defined odds you will bet on, when they don't meet those defined odds, LATER, AFTER THEY WON, you then say those should count!!! You are quite a comedian! You owe me a double beef whopper with extra mayo and extra onions.
WOW Relax !....yea your right i know what the rules are and i STILL have 4 races to go....on the other hand (gospel truth) on one of the days i did not have the time to post i had a horse who won and paid like 18 dollars.....ALSO AND WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MY POST...i think most reasonable people would agree that 10 wins in 28 races for a PLUS Double Digit ROI is fairly impressive.....I dont have time to post selections today but i will select an additional 4 to 6 runners before Monday.
I also stated that maybe its just coincidence or MAYBE i have uncovered a new angle of playing horses i like who are apparently getting big money from the bigger players I mean SUCH HORSES are ONLY 6 wins in 7 starts....I have no illusuions that that sub set of horses would continue to perform anywhere near that % of wins.
Instead of being SLIGHTLY sarcastic perhaps you should have offered congrats...these types of things are WHY i usally dont become involved in internet type "contests".
ABOUT 2 years ago i tracked 300 of my selections (for my own personal records) to an ROI of PLUS or Minus 1%
ONE OF the Biggest Myths in racing is that horses that are say 7 to 5 can't be overlays....ie: Cigar going against non winners of two in an allowance race would be an overlay at 4 to 5
it should also be noted that i have not selected many horses over 8 or 9 to 1...which is something you felt i might resort to.... MOST of the plays i make when betting in real life are on horses that are anywhere from 9 to 5 up to about 10 to 1
Quote: playstkidis anyone even watching this thread besides sopo i am starting to feel like i am wasting my time
I come from a bookie family so I've been reading it to see what your success level is like. Betfair has the races but the odds are so ridiculously low if you want to bet before the race.
Personally I prefer to bet on golf as you can get some nice priced winners there.
A few years ago (about 15) I studied the Superform for the UK races and did have some reasonable success - however, it would take me too long to go through all the form and guides. I do have a good method for betting at the dogs (for flapping tracks) ... however, you need to be at all of the races and I used to work at the track then so it was ok.
At the moment, you are doing quite well but not showing enough +ev for me to back them on the online sites here.
Good luck!
Quote: playstkidis anyone even watching this thread besides sopo i am starting to feel like i am wasting my time
If you were winning a ton or losing a ton there would be more comments.
Quote: FinsRuleIf you were winning a ton or losing a ton there would be more comments.
WOW Thats what i mean and ROI of PLUS 16 OR 17 % VS 28 Runners Isn't Good Enough ? (Throws racing form in air and laughs in disbelief)
Quote: FinsRuleYou specified the odds you'd make the bet with. Those odds didn't happen.
HOW ARE THESE ODDS ?
NO ODDS RESTRICTIONS TODAY I LIKE EM I AM Playing them !
Selections for sat Aug 25
SARATOGA Race 1...#3 Dehere Of The Cat..(heard he has a big one)
SARATOGA RACE 7....#2 Sneaky Kitten ( just because)
SARATOGA RACE 8...#1 Animal Spirits AND # 12 Battle Hardened (more of just because)
SARATOGA Race 10..#8 Contested (just a hunch)
Saratoga race 11...#3 Currency Swap (i think its obvious)
Quote: playstkidHOW ARE THESE ODDS ?
NO ODDS RESTRICTIONS TODAY I LIKE EM I AM Playing them !
Selections for sat Aug 25
SARATOGA Race 1...#3 Dehere Of The Cat..(heard he has a big one)
SARATOGA RACE 7....#2 Sneaky Kitten ( just because)
SARATOGA RACE 8...#1 Animal Spirits AND # 12 Battle Hardened (more of just because)
SARATOGA Race 10..#8 Contested (just a hunch)
Saratoga race 11...#3 Currency Swap (i think its obvious)
if no one gets scrathed
this will be a total of 34 runners .....INCLUDING... 27 runners "with no odds restrictions"
These will be my LAST selections (win lose or draw)
Saratoga Race 1 #13 Brigland, I cant bet it, it will be 8:30 am here in AZ but he wins Bobby doesnt ship for fun.
Saratoga Race 6 #10 Flash Forward ML 15-1 Ill take that all day long
Saratoga
PK3 Race 7-9
Race 7
1,2,6,9
Race 8
1,2,7,9,11
Race 9
2,5,6
4x5x3=$60 $1 Pk 3
If you need to trim Trim race 8.
Also Race 2 at Saratoga if the #10 Archwarrior draws in he walks, but is a low 4-5 ML too cheap for a 2 year old
Ill give you more tomorrow
One never knows which will be the good or bad days BUT I really like the chances of my selections today and BOTH of my selections for race 8 in saratoga should be some rather decent odds
Quote: playstkidis anyone even watching this thread besides sopo i am starting to feel like i am wasting my time
I didn't bother to even open up this topic to read it until a few days ago. Your title of 'picks' gives no indication that this is about horse betting. I thought it was about sports betting.
I was really surprised to see that it was not about sports betting, but about horse betting.
Try starting a new topic with HORSE BETTING in the title and you might get more responses.
Here's my pick for today.
Monmouth Park, 4th race.
$2 Exacta Box, ($12) #2 Scallion, #3 Luckydream, #4 Slammin Slew
======================================================
May the "HORSE" be with you
