duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 12:07:03 AM permalink
It's estimated that 3% of the sports betting public is successful and the other 97% are in the red. No logical thinking person is going to invest hundreds or thousands of dollars to see if he or she belongs in the top three percent. This number is derived from recreational gamblers and degenerate gamblers together with educated gamblers. What most people don't understand, this number is counterfactual. The truth of the matter is, this percentage is not accurate in terms of one's abilities. In other words, don't put your faith in what percentages say until you carefully consider what they don't say. Plain and simple, sportsbooks make money from people throwing their money away. Educated handicappers take advantage of the service provided by the sportsbooks.

The only way to learn how to profit from sports betting is using a fantasy sportsbook. A fantasy sportsbook enables you to learn how to handicap sports for free. If your goal is to be successful handicapping sports, find handicappers on the forum who are mentors who have achieved the same goal your pursuing. Don't listen to people who talk the talk but clearly have no intentions of walking the walk.

It might take time to avoid obstacles of failures, but proper education can turn your failures into success. If you fail ten times, this simply means you found ten ways not to handicap. Pay attention to others who have enjoyed success handicapping sports. Good listening takes time but in the end it will be your greatest tool.
MangoJ
MangoJ
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August 12th, 2012 at 5:14:47 AM permalink
After a book refuses to take any more bets from you, will finally realize to which group of sport bettors you belong.
playstkid
playstkid
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August 12th, 2012 at 5:46:10 AM permalink
find them online ? or even in real life ? LOL i would not believe anyone UNLESS they have proven UP FRONT that they could turn a profit vs a decent sample size of events.
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 7:50:56 AM permalink
playstkid, are you saying that no one wins in sports betting?
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 8:20:52 AM permalink
Few win over a year or two, almost none over a decade. Unless you have great information and the ability to move a line.
Those requirements eliminate 99.99999 % of all participants.
Think about it. People with 30-40 years experience make the lines. They have information the public does not in some occasions.
Not that they need it. The vigorish will grind you down. Plus self delusion. Steeldco has a losing system, but now thinks he has a winning system because he has erased all loses prior to April 26th. LOL
We have a horse player trying to win a dinner from SOOPPO. He has an assistant trainer's license and 20 years experience. He is an underdog to win his bet with SOOPOO. But at least he has a reason to think he can win.
But these so called baseball and football handicappers . LOL Yeah, they know enough to beat the pro handicappers and bookies.

BET ME !!!!
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 8:33:47 AM permalink
I know a sports handicapper who won consistently over three years and then it all fell apart. He's a known handicapper on the internet. He started over again using a different aproach and is hitting 65%(one pick a day) with over 100 picks so far in baseball. These picks are correct because you can see his pick as soon as the game starts. It looks like your right in terms of being successful over the long term. I also noticed that the best handicappers do much better in baseball opposed to a sport that has point spreads.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 8:48:57 AM permalink
^5% means absolutelutely NOTHING. What is his return on investment? How long before this system falls apart ?? LOL
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 9:01:10 AM permalink
His record is 73 - 40 and his ROI is 22.95. He doesn't have a system other than one unit per pick.
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 9:29:14 AM permalink
The only sportsbooks in Las Vegas in the late 60's were stand alone buildings. The operator of the book had to pay 10% to uncle sam. In the mid 70;s there was a bill passed changing the tax to less than 1%. The first and only hotel casino to open a sportsbook was the stardust. The other hotel casinos had no interest in taking sports bets. It wasn't long before other casinos realized that high rollers liked to bet sports. In order for the other casinos to compete with the stardust, they were forced to open sportsbooks. Like everything in life, if there's a loop hole, there's going to be people to take advantage. They were called wise guys, steamers. There were so many illegal books in the big cities, wise guys learned how to manipulate the system. They employed vegas runners to steam roll the sportsbooks to get the spread or the lines to change. With good information and hundreds of bookies around the country,wise guys would be able to get the spread they wanted or more importantly, middle the bet. Vegas books would have to change lines so drastically to try and get public money bet on the other side, wise guys were making a fortune. As a result, to many sportsbooks were getting one sided. Things have changed a lot over the years with sportsbooks in vegas, but believe it or not, most casinos would love to do without sportsbooks.Sportsbooks make money, but for the most part, there doing a service for the sharp bettors. With so much information on the internet, more and more sports bettors are making money. Sportsbooks have lower limits, and they don't panic as fast as in the old days. With most of the wise guys gone, the door is open for the guys with 5 or 10 thousand dollar bank rolls. There's so much information available these days, more and more people are learning the proper steps needed to be successful.
24Bingo
24Bingo
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August 12th, 2012 at 10:26:59 AM permalink
Quote: MangoJ

After a book refuses to take any more bets from you, will finally realize to which group of sport bettors you belong.



Do they do that? I thought the whole thing was set up so that they didn't have to.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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August 12th, 2012 at 10:42:39 AM permalink
I have a 100% win rate at sports betting over the last ten years. I have made 3 bets and won all of them lol,this year I am going to lose the one bet I made so now I will have only a 75% win rate.
Happy days are here again
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 10:44:36 AM permalink
I have never never know a book to tell a customer to go away. I have on occasion known a book to bet more than the better and the same way if he thought the better had inside info. In the late 1950's Calumet Farms leading jockey would bet $10 on 20 on a first time starter. If he bet $200 you could take it to the bank. Henry G was his bookie and cleaned up for over a year. Then the jockey disappeared on a fishing trip in the Everglades. I don't think his body was ever found.

Hell, a bookie can usually lay any bet off to a nickle line if he thinks the bettor is extra sharp. But usually the bettor keeps upping his bet and when the streak ends he gives up more than he won. Love that Variance LOL


There are 1,00's of AP horse players.ost all are owners or trainers. Very easy to have an overlay if today your horse is trying for the first time. And do not even mention trotters and pacers, a cheater's delight.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 10:47:34 AM permalink
Educated handicappers take advantage of the service provided by the sportsbooks.

Substitute liars and braggards for handicappers.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 10:52:27 AM permalink
" He started over again using a different approach and is hitting 65%(one pick a day) with over 100 picks so far in baseball. "

" His record is 73 - 40 and his ROI is 22.95. He doesn't have a system other than one unit per pick. "

Actually 74.45 percent win with those figure, so he lust be laying odds quite often. How does that work with betting 1 unit per game.


I a day since opening day is over 130 days of plays or did he get a do over? How long did it take him to lose those 3 years of winnings
after his system went suddenly wrong?


Hell put a link or his name up here !

I am willing to bet he won't average 12% on his pix until the seasons ends.


And please stick around . Don't bail out like Mauii sunset or AP horse player.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 11:45:18 AM permalink
Quote: duckston09

The only sportsbooks in Las Vegas in the late 60's were stand alone buildings. The operator of the book had to pay 10% to uncle sam. In the mid 70;s there was a bill passed changing the tax to less than 1%. The first and only hotel casino to open a sportsbook was the stardust. The other hotel casinos had no interest in taking sports bets. It wasn't long before other casinos realized that high rollers liked to bet sports. In order for the other casinos to compete with the stardust, they were forced to open sportsbooks. Like everything in life, if there's a loop hole, there's going to be people to take advantage. They were called wise guys, steamers. There were so many illegal books in the big cities, wise guys learned how to manipulate the system. They employed vegas runners to steam roll the sportsbooks to get the spread or the lines to change. With good information and hundreds of bookies around the country,wise guys would be able to get the spread they wanted or more importantly, middle the bet. Vegas books would have to change lines so drastically to try and get public money bet on the other side, wise guys were making a fortune. As a result, to many sportsbooks were getting one sided. Things have changed a lot over the years with sportsbooks in vegas, but believe it or not, most casinos would love to do without sportsbooks.Sportsbooks make money, but for the most part, there doing a service for the sharp bettors. With so much information on the internet, more and more sports bettors are making money. Sportsbooks have lower limits, and they don't panic as fast as in the old days. With most of the wise guys gone, the door is open for the guys with 5 or 10 thousand dollar bank rolls. There's so much information available these days, more and more people are learning the proper steps needed to be successful.




Lot more illegitimate books in las Vegas than legal back then. WISE GUYS were operating the books. And getting a middle. GOOD LUCK, even back then. Plus you still have to win the middle. If you don't get both ends down at a nickel line, you still face an uphill battle. Info on the internet, surest way to have you money bet the wrong way. LOL

"They don't panic as fast as in the old days. PANIC ROFLMAO Ever heard of laying off bets? Henry G made a good living taking the nickel line on games he liked when books were trying to balance things. As a bookie, just keep taking the bets and stay out of the way yourself.

That's one of the few things they got right on the Sopranos. When Chris had a bookie joint and when Tony was running the celebrity poker game.
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 1:05:05 PM permalink
Your right, their was a lot of shenanigans going on back then. We know that they fix games now, how many games were being fixed back in the old days?
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 1:16:44 PM permalink
In 2008, they surveyed around 1,900 college athletes and 1% openly admitted they did things during the game to influence the outcome. 2% admitted they knew an athlete that had an influence, and 30% admitted to betting on sports. These were people who were being truthful. Everybody remembers an NBA referee named Tim Donaghy who was indicted and sentenced to 15 months for fixing games. How often does this happen? The guy putting bets in for Donaghy was losing in every sport, including basketball, but was winning 75% of the games that Donaghy was officiating. All favorites. After awhile, the bookie put 2 and 2 together and realized what was going on. He started piggybacking his games and said nothing to anyone, including Donaghy friend. This went on for quite awhile before the information started to trickle down. This went on for over 5 years before Donaghy got caught. How is that possible? And the strange thing about it was, the feds found out he was fixing games by accident. They had phones tapped to members of organized crime, and over heard one guy mentioning having a referee in his pocket. The NBA knew nothing about it. So how many games are really fixed. Can the home plate umpire influence the outcome. Did you ever see a late flag in football. As long as we are human, the temptation will always be there.
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 1:20:32 PM permalink
" the feds found out he was fixing games by accident "

Henry G got 5-10 in Club fed because the FBI was tapping a phone for a guy who was profiting from insider trading. He was also betting from Florida with Henry in Baltimore.

Henry was a friend of Julius THE LORD Salisbury, but he went to jail, unlike THE LORD.

EvenBOB Julius was a cab driver too. LOL
duckston09
duckston09
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August 12th, 2012 at 1:54:22 PM permalink
He was on 60 minutes. The way I understood it was, organized crime got a hold of him after they found out he was fixing games. They wanted him to influence the outcome of every game he was officiating and he was paid $2,000 per game. He corporated with the feds and got a reduced sentence. 15 months . He admitted it all started with him having a gambling addiction. There's a guy named vegas runner who explains it very well on youtube (vegas runner-is it fixed)
buzzpaff
buzzpaff
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August 12th, 2012 at 1:58:24 PM permalink
In the late 1950's and early 60's there were several college basketball scandals about fixed games. Think about it !

Here kid, take the 3 grand and just make sure your team win by less than 14 points.

But kids can't keep their mouths shut. SIGH

Henry G was once asked about the rigged game sand said he did not care. For all he knew , they could be rigged the way he was betting. LOL
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