Thoroughbred Handicapping Contest - Help

Ok, so I'm in a $200 thoroughbred handicapping contest online on 7/28. Top 2 out of a max 200 entries win a trip to Vegas and to the National Handicapping Contest. Top 20 make it to the $1000 contest in November.

There will be 12 races. Each contestant places a mythical $2 Win/Place bet on one horse in each race. The max payout per race is $52 for win, $26 for place. It's fairly straightforward.

I've been doing pretty well in the $10 and $50 contests, as evidenced by the fact that I have made the $200 one. But the stakes are higher, and I'm not sure if what I was doing before will keep me advancing. I usually just handicap the race, and make sure I don't take the favorite. Most of my picks fall into the 7/2 to 8-1 range. The problem is that the $10 and $50 contests have 8 and 10 races respectively. So with 8 races, there's less of a chance for longshots to come in. The more longshots that come in, the higher the cutoff is going to be. If a 40-1 shot comes in, it's going to pay the max $78, which is right around what the qualifying has been for the last 3 $200 tournaments.

So the question is, should I just pick 12 longshots and hope I hit 1-2 of them? Or should I keep doing what I have been doing, which is pick the mid-price horses, try to hit 25-33% of them, and hope no longshots come in so I finish in the top 20, but probably not all the way at top.

Finally, you can make changes to your picks at anytime before the race starts.

This is sort of a math issue, sort of a horse picking issue. Any help/advice would be greatly appreciated.

I was once in a similar contest. The rules were a little different. You could bet your horse to Win, Place or Show. There were 3 selected a day from the program. One of them was usually a maiden race. (UGH!)
As long as your horse finished in the money, you advanced to race another day. At the end of the meet, the bettor with the most winnings was declared the winner.

Since the contest was free, there were about 1500 entrants. I made to the final 100 before being eliminated.
My strategy was to make all Show bets. I figured this gave me 9 chances to win. 3 chances in 3 races.

My suggestion is to make Place bets. You have twice as many chances to win each race.

Good Luck and let us know how you did.

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I was once describing the contest rules to someone and they replied:
"IT SOUNDS LIKE A JOB!"

I thought about it and decided he was right. That was the first and last time I entered the contest.

Question? will this 12 races be at one track? Probably not? Will it be featured races at many tracks? What are the probabilities you will be betting in short fields? I don't see any reason to deviate from normal handicapping standard. But it is a tournament. i liken this to poker tournaments, it's poker, but it is a tournament first.
Could not believe the members here who could not believe a player laid down quad Queens. It was a TOURNAMENT. He laid down second nut. get over it.
I would definitely change my strategy as the next level. But you need to get to that next level. Think about it. You will have $48 bankroll and have to come out with a $38 profit after 12 races. If you have to deviate from normal strategy to do that, you don't belong there in the first place.

No, it'll probably be 4-5 races at Saratoga, 4-5 at Del Mar, 1-2 at Arlington, 1-2 at Monmouth.

I would just hate to finish with $0, you know?

I don't think that will happen. I agree with your overall strategy with one exception. Do NOT pass a solid favorite in the 2 to 1 range.
Besides losing $4, you will give that winner to your opponents. I think you will find at least 2 such plays among those races. GOOD LUCK

I will post the races that are in the contest on Thursday when they are released. I'm really looking forward to this - I'd love to be in the National Handicapping Championship in Vegas.

I never entered any contest in the past, because there were few back then. Usually started with 200 or 30 hundred paid entries, then whittled down to 25. Those 25 were then lumped in with 25 sportswriters, Daily racing forms experts ,etc. Then one of them would brag how he would this huge contest.
Plus the format really sucked in that you were allowed to pick on a entire card, usually penn national, and worse yet could hand in selection and bet amounts 3 minutes prior to post time. Just became a crap shoot on the last 2 races. Your format is not perfect, but it seems fair !

Quote: FinsRule

I will post the races that are in the contest on Thursday when they are released. I'm really looking forward to this - I'd love to be in the National Handicapping Championship in Vegas.

Saturday 7/28 Contest Races
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Saratoga Races 7 - 11
Monmouth Races 9 - 11
Del Mar Races 4 - 7

I'll start working on this after work today. If anyone has any thoughts, I'd love to hear them.

I'll probably post my initial picks tomorrow morning. They can change throughout the day based on how I am doing in the contest.

FIN ARE YOU IN ????

I finished 55th out of 161. If the 11-1 at the 6th at Del Mar wins instead of loses by 1/2 length, I would have made it. I'll. Try again in August...