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Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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December 11th, 2011 at 11:57:40 AM permalink
If you're not familiar with the game, it's in nearly every casino in Las Vegas, albeit on one oversized machine.

The basic gameplay has a player inserting a certain denomination (minimum $1 usually) and "spinning" a wheel, where there are four bonus spots and the rest have Deal or No Deal-style suitcases which increase the top four or five payouts. Each denomination is its own game (meaning you can't prime a machine at $1 and jump to $100). At the $1 level, the top prize increases by .50, and the other top prizes by a smaller amount. I believe the top prize is $50 at the $1 level. If you hit one of the three bonus suitcases, you play the "Deal or No Deal" game, choosing a suitcase, then selecting 6-6-4-4 and so on. When you get to three, you choose one suitcase (which is a higher threshold than the TV show). One of the bonus suitcases on the spinner is a DOUBLE, automatically doubling ALL dollar amounts. The gameplay in the bonus moves a LOT faster, and there is very little time between offers and choosing suitcases.

My question is, is this game wongable? I have walked past machines whose top prize was $58 (meaning the spins had already gone 16 times). I know this doesn't necessarily mean it will hit right away, but adding to the top dollar prize means higher offers that you could take for a smaller investment. I did this in Vegas anytime it was over $53 on the $1 level. Most times it only took a few spins to hit the bonus, and as soon as I had an amount I was satisfied with (usually +5 on my investment, pending suitcase composition), I walked. One time I did walk away when I would have had the big bonus, but my choices were small amounts. The average of what was left was near the offer, so I took it.

In all my time doing this, I've only posted a loss once, and that was a couple bucks, when I gambled where I normally would have walked (I was up for the trip, so I thought what the heck). Has anybody else tried this as well?
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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January 10th, 2012 at 4:18:18 PM permalink
Played this on my last trip to Vegas in December 11'. Oh man. This game is the devil.

My friend and sat down to it. Inserted $20. And it hooked us for the first hour. (Yeah we played this machine, for an hour). Because we would keep hitting the bonus cases every 3rd or 5th time, sometimes increasing our bet by $1-$3 (which definitely gets the top case to a high value...especially if you hit the x2 case).

Until we were "70 in". Meaning we had put in $70 without a hit on a bonus case. Now albeit, we were getting reckless and increasing the base bet to $5, and twice to $10. But we went a good 22-29 spins without hitting a bonus. WOW. We went back down to $15 and called it quits.

The best way to play this game, is to watch someone else get frustrated after going 10-15 spins with no bonus, and having a small BR, and walk away. Than you can take advantage of the higher values, since their play will still be reflected on the top 5 case increases.


But be warned, each spin, is an independent event....

If you double your money. Walk away. If you lose $10. Walk away. This machine....is the devil.
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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January 10th, 2012 at 5:08:46 PM permalink
Quote: YoDiceRoll11

The best way to play this game, is to watch someone else get frustrated after going 10-15 spins with no bonus, and having a small BR, and walk away. Than you can take advantage of the higher values, since their play will still be reflected on the top 5 case increases.



That's the definition of Wonging. I forgot about this thread I started a long time ago. I think the machines are, without a doubt, wongable. I just wonder how much the top cases need to be primed in order to get it.

They have a machine like this at Rising Star, in Rising Sun, IN. I used a free slot play coupon, hit the bonus on the first spin (it was primed three or four spins), and got my last two cases to $4 and $51.50 (the top prize). The deal offered was exactly half, so I figured it was a free play anyways, gambled, and what do you know?? MY case had $51.50. It's pretty fun!
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
YoDiceRoll11
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January 10th, 2012 at 6:04:07 PM permalink
Nice. Ok cool. New term for me (does it have to do with Stanford Wong?).

Yeah. I think I'm done with that machine unless I see someone wind it up. Even then, it has horrible odds.
Boz
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January 10th, 2012 at 6:44:07 PM permalink
I would think it has the same hold as most other $1 machines and like all other Slots, is pure luck since each spin is independant.
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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January 10th, 2012 at 10:54:44 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

I would think it has the same hold as most other $1 machines and like all other Slots, is pure luck since each spin is independant.


Exactly!
Mooseton
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January 10th, 2012 at 11:49:46 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

I would think it has the same hold as most other $1 machines and like all other Slots, is pure luck since each spin is independant.



It sounds like you guys are not taking into account the fact that it is a progressive machine. Now I myself cannot do the math as to how much you should expect to lose on this game normally, but I believe most progressives move into a positive expectation play at some point. This one would take a math wiz... hint hint.
$1700, 18, 19, 1920, 40, 60,... :/ Thx 'Do it again'. I'll try
Acoplander1
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January 11th, 2012 at 2:01:55 AM permalink
Is it wongable? Sure, because one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins. It's like the Konami Quick Strike machines with a capped must-hit progressive ($25-$50 range, $250-$500 range, etc.).

So you calculate your EV, assuming each non-winning spin is worth -$X where X is your denomination. Let's say 70 spins have passed without a bonus, you know worse-case scenario, you will hit a 2X bonus in 5 spins. Say the 2X bonus game is worth $20X. Well, you'd have to put in $5X at the most, so you'd win on average $15X.
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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January 11th, 2012 at 12:34:55 PM permalink
Quote: Acoplander1

Is it wongable? Sure, because one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins. It's like the Konami Quick Strike machines with a capped must-hit progressive ($25-$50 range, $250-$500 range, etc.).



I've never actually heard or realized that. In that case it is definitely wongable. I still think in the short-term anything over 10 spins could be wongable, but clearly if it gets up to 60 spins it would be. Maybe I'm just lucky, but I've only gone about 6 spins before it hits.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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January 13th, 2012 at 2:27:25 AM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

Maybe I'm just lucky, but I've only gone about 6 spins before it hits.


Wow. How many times have you played this machine?
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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January 14th, 2012 at 1:53:05 PM permalink
Quote: YoDiceRoll11

Wow. How many times have you played this machine?



First off, I only play it if there's at least 6x in the top jackpot (with the exception of the FreePlay I received). That being said, I've done this probably 15-20 times. It's a small sample, I know, and I tend to take the first deal that nets me a profit of my investment unless statistically I'm safe to chance another few cases.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
Lvkid7
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January 16th, 2012 at 5:17:38 AM permalink
Quote: Acoplander1

Is it wongable? Sure, because one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins. It's like the Konami Quick Strike machines with a capped must-hit progressive ($25-$50 range, $250-$500 range, etc.).

So you calculate your EV, assuming each non-winning spin is worth -$X where X is your denomination. Let's say 70 spins have passed without a bonus, you know worse-case scenario, you will hit a 2X bonus in 5 spins. Say the 2X bonus game is worth $20X. Well, you'd have to put in $5X at the most, so you'd win on average $15X.



Just walked past this machine at silverton casino in las Vegas. Top prize for a $1 bet was over $160 (starts at $50 and increases $0.50 with every spin). That means it went over 210 spins without hitting a bonus. Something was fishy. I put in $20 anyway and it took 17 spins before I hit a bonus. Of course picked the higher amounts right away and my first deal was only about $8. Ended up with 3 cents in my case. A little curious about that "stipulation" now.
Tiltpoul
Tiltpoul
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January 16th, 2012 at 9:40:24 AM permalink
Quote: Lvkid7

Just walked past this machine at silverton casino in las Vegas. Top prize for a $1 bet was over $160 (starts at $50 and increases $0.50 with every spin). That means it went over 210 spins without hitting a bonus. Something was fishy. I put in $20 anyway and it took 17 spins before I hit a bonus. Of course picked the higher amounts right away and my first deal was only about $8. Ended up with 3 cents in my case. A little curious about that "stipulation" now.



I wonder if some casinos have it set up to disperse payouts at a higher range into lower denominations, meaning if somebody comes by, plays 3 $100 spins, it takes that money and disperses it out to the lower payouts.

I once saw a guy playing the game at $100 a spin. One of his offers was for $900, which in my opinion, he should have taken given his case choices left. He played on and ended up with the second lowest offer (I think $2). He would have had to pay taxes on any other deal if he left his big case in play.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 16th, 2012 at 10:41:05 AM permalink
I played this game at the South Point yesterday through two bonuses. I'd be happy to determine the positive EV entry point, but I would need to know the probability of playing the bonus for any given bet, as well as the 2X bonus.

Quote: Acoplander1

... one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins.



How do you know?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
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January 16th, 2012 at 5:33:22 PM permalink
Quote: Tiltpoul

First off, I only play it if there's at least 6x in the top jackpot (with the exception of the FreePlay I received). That being said, I've done this probably 15-20 times. It's a small sample, I know, and I tend to take the first deal that nets me a profit of my investment unless statistically I'm safe to chance another few cases.



Dude, that is some good luck. Nice!! When I played this game, I would take the first deal too.

Quote: Acoplander1

... one stipulation is that the 2X bonus will automatically be hit if there are 74 consecutive non-winning spins.

Quote: Wizard

How do you know?



I am curious as well.
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