Winning the Progressive - How Likely Is It?
Anyway, I was just wondering, from a mathematical point of view, how likely am I to actually hit and win the progressive?
Anyone know how to calculate the chance of winning one?
Quote: HotBlondeAnyway, I was just wondering, from a mathematical point of view, how likely am I to actually hit and win the progressive?
Anyone know how to calculate the chance of winning one?
It's impossible to tell what the chance of winning the progressive is, in part because you don't know the overall payback percentage of the machine. You also have no idea of the odds against the progressive hitting on any one spin.
I use a simple, nonmathematical formula: hitting a big progressive is like being hit by lightning, marrying a movie star, dying in a car accident, or getting promoted to general manager: it always happens to someone else.
Quote: mkl654321it always happens to someone else.
This is perhaps one of the best observations and statements made on this site about winning!
Quote: WizardAccording to John Robinson the odds of hitting Megabucks are 1 in 49,836,032. That is (1/368)^3. So I claim that for each reel the probability it steps on the jackpot symbol is 1/368.
Maybe i should save my money and just stick to blackjack! At least if I sit at the right table and spend that same amount ($124,590,80) I could on average win $121,226,147.84 of that back.
Better deal, I'll say.
Quote: NareedSo pretty much you're better off playing lotto? I find that really, really odd.
Depending on your state, you may indeed have a better chance of hitting the jackpot with a lotto ticket than with a slot pull. However, the remainder of the paytable on lotto tickets (catch 5, 4, 3, etc) is severely depressed compared to the remainder of the paytable on a slot game. A typical state lottery game pays back 50%. A typical progressive slot game pays back >90%. A progressive VP game is often >96%.
Quote: mkl654321It's impossible to tell what the chance of winning the progressive is, in part because you don't know the overall payback percentage of the machine. You also have no idea of the odds against the progressive hitting on any one spin.
I use a simple, nonmathematical formula: hitting a big progressive is like being hit by lightning, marrying a movie star, dying in a car accident, or getting promoted to general manager: it always happens to someone else.
We already know you haven't died in a car accident, but good luck on 2 of the other 3.
Quote: MathExtremistA typical state lottery game pays back 50%. A typical progressive slot game pays back >90%. A progressive VP game is often >96%.
Ah, better. I knew lotto couldn't possibly be a better bet :)
I still play neither, though, which is best of all. I may try a VP progressive if I find one with a decent paytable (in other words, I'll get some shocks looking up pay tables on VP progressives).
Maybe that'll work to keep me away!!
Quote: HotBlondeI know The Wizard suggests if to play slots at all to play VP. I think I will learn the strategy and try that next time to not lose as much if I were going to play just regular slots. To me, even a just under 4% loss is high since I tend to prefer to play at 0.027% blackjack tables, but, DAMN! I'm still lured in by that big progressive! (Just keep thinking, "It's only 1 in 50 million, It's only 1 in 50 million, It's only 1 in 50 million..."
By all means better play VP. House edge aside, VP is fun. You have to make decisions on what to hold, not just push a button over and over. It's also easy to follow the action, up to ten hands anyway, so there's more of a thrill as well. Lastly you ahve an influence on the results, same as in BJ.
The payout on a progressive VP (usually for a royal flush) is not as big as the payout on some progressive slots, but the odds are better. You're also less likely to lose big over the long term. Google VPfree2 to find the better pay tables. I think the site also indicates progressives.
What are the odds of hitting the progressive in this game compared to the 1 in 50 million for the other? And does The Wizard or somewhere else offer VP strategy?Quote: NareedThe payout on a progressive VP (usually for a royal flush) is not as big as the payout on some progressive slots, but the odds are better.
Quote: HotBlondeAnd does The Wizard or somewhere else offer VP strategy?
Go to wizardofodds.com and click on the tab "advice and strategy" then "video poker". I've learned a lot about many different games reading the info at that site.
Quote: HotBlondeWhat are the odds of hitting the progressive in this game compared to the 1 in 50 million for the other? And does The Wizard or somewhere else offer VP strategy?
I don't recall what the odds are for hitting a royal, but I think it's in the neighborhood of tens of thousands to 1. A lot better than 50 million to 1. I'm sure someone will post the odds soon enough.
The Wizard has strategies for several games in his sister site Wizard of Odds. Just follow the link at the bottom of the page. He also has simualtors that are useful in training, as they tell you whether you're making the right play or not.
Personally I preffer games like deuces wild (DW), largely because I got used to playing with wild cards when I played with my friends. But I've warmed up to Jacks or Better (JoB) and Bonus Poker (BP). In playing VP it helps if you know and like to play poker to begin with.
Quote: HotBlondeI know The Wizard suggests if to play slots at all to play VP. I think I will learn the strategy and try that next time to not lose as much if I were going to play just regular slots.
Just remember that VP is still pretty volatile compared to blackjack. While the house edge of Good JoB is .46%, the royal flush makes up 2.3% of that return. I think that it pays to tailor your play based on what the comps are regarding the players club (i.e. - Harrah's = machine; MGM = tables for more generous comps)
-B
