How to lose 30k in a month.

Chased many ainsworth must hit by 10k progressives. Got absolutely punished. I would build them up then the ap players would be lining up at the door to take them down.

A friend of mine would say of such expenses, “think of it as the cost of an education.”

It sounds like you could use an agent who could sell the machine once you prime it.

Quote: krchov

Chased many ainsworth must hit by 10k progressives. Got absolutely punished. I would build them up then the ap players would be lining up at the door to take them down.
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Why did you start if you didn't have the $ to go all the way?

I had the money casino closes at 4am then my day job

I’ve always hated Assworths. Never played a 10k but every $500 I’ve played the loss rate was about 30% before the progressive hit. I mean if you want to take shots at $9500 and 9600 ones then ok but if you want to see it through you have to bring 30-40k cash and be prepared for how long it takes. You can’t start playing at midnight then blame your bad luck cause the casino closes.

Quote: Sandybestdog

I’ve always hated Assworths. Never played a 10k but every $500 I’ve played the loss rate was about 30% before the progressive hit. I mean if you want to take shots at $9500 and 9600 ones then ok but if you want to see it through you have to bring 30-40k cash and be prepared for how long it takes. You can’t start playing at midnight then blame your bad luck cause the casino closes.
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I did my duty. Made a spreadsheet and a list of all the capped jackpot machines in Atlantic City, when I was playing there.

There are the parameters on the spreadsheet, which I believe are all you need to solve such a machine. The starting point, must-hit-by point, and increment per bet for the minor and the major jackpot. Then you need the overall return for the machine, which is a guess but if you use 88% in that market you won't be too wrong.

Now that's 7 fixed parameters, and then I can enter where the two jackpots actually are right now. What that will give me is two different advantages, one is a worst-case advantage where I run one of the jackpots all the way to the max before it hits, and the other is the real advantage where I assume each jackpot hits halfway between where it is now and the max. And that really is where it will hit, on average, so your advantage calculation assumes you will run it up to that point and it hits. That is usually much better than the worst case.

Pretty cool? Now here's the depressing part- I also calculated how frequently I would find a +EV machine assuming I was the only AP in the universe. That number is awful! I will be walking around for a month of Sundays to find a playable machine. And in reality it will be worse than that, because there are other APs watching and playing and the chances of me being there before another wiseguy plays it are worse. That's when I decided not to pursue it very much.

usually play 10 hours and then i quit progressives usually on goes up $110 on a $5 bet

What you experienced is one of the most common and painful ways to lose money on must-hit-by progressives — being the person who builds the machine up without knowing where the jackpot actually becomes +EV to play.

The problem: Ainsworth must-hit-by machines have a publicly stated ceiling (e.g., hits by $10,000) but the break-even threshold — the point where the expected value of playing actually turns positive — is lower, and depends on the contribution rate and game RTP. If you don't know that specific number, you can't tell whether you're building equity for yourself or for the AP who walks up when it crosses the threshold.

The APs showing up at the door weren't lucky — they were watching the meter cross a specific dollar amount they'd calculated in advance, then waiting for you to fund it to that level.

The brutal math: every dollar you put in below the break-even threshold is a negative EV spin. You're paying to build a jackpot that someone else is positioned to collect. Above the threshold, the spins become positive, which is when you'd want to be playing — not before.

Hard lesson but an educational one. The machines aren't random opportunities to grind a jackpot; they're math problems with specific entry points.