jaspa
jaspa
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 23rd, 2009 at 7:54:54 AM permalink
Hi folks,

I am not much of a math guy, so I thought some of you could help me out here. I am at $5 blackjack player, sometimes craps or Pai-Gow or VP, but that's about it. I'm not into the slots very much.

I know slots have a higher house advantage, but I am forever reading on other forums about these big wins the slot players have. I never hear a $5 BJ player write "I won $1000 playing $5 a hand."

So, I was wondering what the expected loss on 4 hours of old fashioned 3:2 BJ (decent downtown-ish rules) at $5 would be compared to lets say 4 hours of quarter slots (with an average HO)playing 75c a pull (keeping it slow, about 4 pulls per min). I just wonder if I am looking for a big score, is it worth the higher house advantage to go for a big slot win instead of grinding out a few bucks at the tables.

Is that enough info for you math experts to crunch some numbers?

Thanks!
jaspa
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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November 23rd, 2009 at 8:31:03 AM permalink
If you want a shot at a big win in blackjack, you can increase your bets as you win. This of course comes with higher variance, and a higher -EV (you are exposing more money to the house edge).

Another option is to change your game. You said you like Video Poker, that's a much better way than slots to go for a big win. There are some table games and side bets with big win potential that can have lower house edges than slots, although slot players do get better treatment through player cards.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
dk
dk
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November 23rd, 2009 at 9:41:14 AM permalink
Quote: jaspa

Hi folks,

I am not much of a math guy, so I thought some of you could help me out here. I am at $5 blackjack player, sometimes craps or Pai-Gow or VP, but that's about it. I'm not into the slots very much.

I know slots have a higher house advantage, but I am forever reading on other forums about these big wins the slot players have. I never hear a $5 BJ player write "I won $1000 playing $5 a hand."

So, I was wondering what the expected loss on 4 hours of old fashioned 3:2 BJ (decent downtown-ish rules) at $5 would be compared to lets say 4 hours of quarter slots (with an average HO)playing 75c a pull (keeping it slow, about 4 pulls per min). I just wonder if I am looking for a big score, is it worth the higher house advantage to go for a big slot win instead of grinding out a few bucks at the tables.

Is that enough info for you math experts to crunch some numbers?

Thanks!
jaspa


jaspa,

If your goal is to give yourself the best chance at a big score, the right strategy depends on how much you're willing to risk. My initial suggestions would be craps or tournament poker (because of the high variance) or BJ or Baccarat with bigger bets.

To suggest a specific strategy, I'd need to know how much you're willing to risk, and if you're willing to have a very short session or if playing longer has some intrinsic value to you.

Sadly, I know almost nothing about slots or VP, so I can't help you there.
The ratio of people to cake is too big.
jaspa
jaspa
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 23rd, 2009 at 9:58:28 AM permalink
I'm looking at perhaps 5 $100 sessions over the course of my trip. I enjoy VP, and I feel I am a smarter player than I was on my last trip. Perhaps that will be the way to go. I will be doing most of my gambling downtown, and staying at the El Cortez. I really enjoy BJ, but can't do much with $100 at a session except sit down at a $3 or $5 table. I am just looking for the best chance for a big score (which I've never had in Vegas...I come home broke or with 1/2-2/3 of my bankroll in tact). I'd even be thrilled coming home even.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:04:22 AM permalink
Quote: jaspa

I never hear a $5 BJ player write "I won $1000 playing $5 a hand."

Of course you won't. The payoff just isn't there at the BJ table. Oh, at SOME BJ tables you can make one of a variety of high-house-edge side bets. And some of those pay off hansomely. But before there still is that high house edge.



Would it make you feel better if you knew that, a few years ago, my wife was playing Let It Ride for $15 and won over $12,000 on one hand?


...and ever since, she has been trying to hit it again. Sigh.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
dk
dk
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:28:06 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Would it make you feel better if you knew that, a few years ago, my wife was playing Let It Ride for $15 and won over $12,000 on one hand?


...and ever since, she has been trying to hit it again. Sigh.


I played this game once because a friend of mine swears by it. I was down to my last bet and hit a full house. I think I ended up about $500 ahead. I vowed never to play again because I can't see how anyone could ever win consistently.
The ratio of people to cake is too big.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:34:48 AM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

Quote: jaspa

I never hear a $5 BJ player write "I won $1000 playing $5 a hand."

Of course you won't. The payoff just isn't there at the BJ table. Oh, at SOME BJ tables you can make one of a variety of high-house-edge side bets. And some of those pay off hansomely. But before there still is that high house edge.

Would it make you feel better if you knew that, a few years ago, my wife was playing Let It Ride for $15 and won over $12,000 on one hand?

...and ever since, she has been trying to hit it again. Sigh.



.25 Slot machines in Vegas at .93 (7% House advantage) x $3 / minute (4 pulls at .75 / minute) = .21 / minute x 60 minutes = $12.60 / hour.

$5 blackjack player in Vegas at .99 (1% HA) x 90 hands / hour = .05 x 90 = $4.50 / hour.

Still a much better deal to play Blackjack. A compromise would be to find a Video Poker machine with a good pay table with a zero to 3% HA which will make your money last quite a while longer, makes you think, and can slow the number of draws down (since you have to pick cards to keep/toss).
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:43:59 AM permalink
I agree with those who say to stick to blackjack. Whatever it would take to satisfy you, just keep doubling up until you get there, or lose trying. However, never bet more than half your chips, to save money to double or split if you need to. Better yet, don't bet more than one fourth, in case you need to double after a split or re-split.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
dk
dk
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:46:32 AM permalink
Quote: jaspa

I'm looking at perhaps 5 $100 sessions over the course of my trip. I enjoy VP, and I feel I am a smarter player than I was on my last trip. Perhaps that will be the way to go. I will be doing most of my gambling downtown, and staying at the El Cortez. I really enjoy BJ, but can't do much with $100 at a session except sit down at a $3 or $5 table. I am just looking for the best chance for a big score (which I've never had in Vegas...I come home broke or with 1/2-2/3 of my bankroll in tact). I'd even be thrilled coming home even.


At $5/hand BJ (assuming a house edge of 1% and $100 bankroll), I calculate about 0.6% chance of winning $1,000 before you go bust. With a house edge of just 0.2%, your odds go up to about 6%.

If you don't mind a short session, I think your best chance is to play craps and take max odds. You should be able to find 10x odds downtown (Main Street Station has 10x odds if I recall). Be warned that you will lose $100 in less than five minutes at least half the time. But if you win just a few points, you could definitely reach the $1,000 mark.
The ratio of people to cake is too big.
boymimbo
boymimbo
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November 23rd, 2009 at 10:54:21 AM permalink
Quote: dk

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Would it make you feel better if you knew that, a few years ago, my wife was playing Let It Ride for $15 and won over $12,000 on one hand?

...and ever since, she has been trying to hit it again. Sigh.


I played this game once because a friend of mine swears by it. I was down to my last bet and hit a full house. I think I ended up about $500 ahead. I vowed never to play again because I can't see how anyone could ever win consistently.



You have to be very patient for Let it Ride; less than 22% of the hands are winners. Given that the odds of hitting a two pair or better are about 7.6%, you have to be willing to hang through for the long streaks of not hitting anything. Expect to hit a full house or better once out of every 589.6 hands, that's a solid 19.6 hours of play at 30 hands/hour.

If I choose to play any of the "parlour games" (anything other than Blackjack, Craps, or Baccarat), I stick to a very strict loss limit and let luck take me where it may. Staying at any of these tables for long lengths of time, in my opinion, will just eat away at your bankroll.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!

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