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18 members have voted

Hunterhill
Hunterhill
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Mission146ALG
January 27th, 2023 at 4:05:17 PM permalink
Iíve had as many as 67 free games and didnít hit the grand or the mega.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
100xOdds
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Mission146
January 27th, 2023 at 6:40:31 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

Quote: IamSpartacus

Quote: Vegasrider

Watched a couple play the other night. Got up to 48 free games, they kept running out of money. I along with a couple of people were waiting for them to abandon the machine. The machine next to them became available so I started to play that. Iíd figure I would have the best shot of hopping on that machine in the event they left. I could easily insert my money as they got up. The blue pig popped without the yellow pig. 48 free games would have certainly been able to hit the big progressive if they could get the other pig to pop.
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No guarantee. Last summer I caught a $2.25 at 27 Blue and ran it up to 51 before it popped, luckily with the Yellow. I was one away from both Grand and Mega after 20 spins and hit neither. Consider I had $700 in, I was lucky to only be a $40 loser.
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I would hesitate to assume that the number of Free Spins has anything to do with the probability of hitting the top prizes. I'm not suggesting it doesn't, but I wouldn't assume that it does.
link to original post

yeah, i'm thinking the game already knows if you're going to hit the grand/mega or not the moment the free games began
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
Mission146
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January 28th, 2023 at 8:41:50 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mission146

Quote: IamSpartacus

Quote: Vegasrider

Watched a couple play the other night. Got up to 48 free games, they kept running out of money. I along with a couple of people were waiting for them to abandon the machine. The machine next to them became available so I started to play that. Iíd figure I would have the best shot of hopping on that machine in the event they left. I could easily insert my money as they got up. The blue pig popped without the yellow pig. 48 free games would have certainly been able to hit the big progressive if they could get the other pig to pop.
link to original post



No guarantee. Last summer I caught a $2.25 at 27 Blue and ran it up to 51 before it popped, luckily with the Yellow. I was one away from both Grand and Mega after 20 spins and hit neither. Consider I had $700 in, I was lucky to only be a $40 loser.
link to original post



I would hesitate to assume that the number of Free Spins has anything to do with the probability of hitting the top prizes. I'm not suggesting it doesn't, but I wouldn't assume that it does.
link to original post

yeah, i'm thinking the game already knows if you're going to hit the grand/mega or not the moment the free games began
link to original post



Perhaps before that if the case is that the number of Free Games does not correlate to the probability of hitting the big ones.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
ALG
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Mission146
January 28th, 2023 at 12:25:49 PM permalink
I've long had doubts about this being a fake AP game. If the game played fairly 67 games the grand should be guaranteed.

Found 26 blue yesterday broke all three at 45 games. Only got 3 to the mega and 3 to the grand. Didn't even tease either.

Only thought is maybe the progressives are more likely with bigger bets? I'm almost always playing low bet due to that is what I usually find.
Mission146
Mission146
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January 28th, 2023 at 12:34:43 PM permalink
Quote: ALG

I've long had doubts about this being a fake AP game. If the game played fairly 67 games the grand should be guaranteed.

Found 26 blue yesterday broke all three at 45 games. Only got 3 to the mega and 3 to the grand. Didn't even tease either.

Only thought is maybe the progressives are more likely with bigger bets? I'm almost always playing low bet due to that is what I usually find.
link to original post



I wouldn't necessarily call it a, "Fake AP," game, either.

Just a matter of figuring out the average value of each Free Game, average amount of spins before hitting Free Games, average amount of added Free Games relative to starting point and average, 'Drop,' getting the Free Games to hit based on the number of spins.

Of course, it becomes more singles and doubles than home runs, but that's how beating machines directly (without any backend EV) usually goes.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Vegasrider
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Mission146
February 20th, 2023 at 12:36:14 PM permalink
Quote: Hunterhill

Iíve had as many as 67 free games and didnít hit the grand or the mega.
link to original post



Some woman left me 52 games since she ran out of money. I got it up to 62 games and then the worst thing happened. Only the blue pig popped
KingClutch
KingClutch
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Mission146
February 25th, 2023 at 6:41:08 PM permalink
This is one of my favorite APís. I have played both Rich and Hog wild. Highest I have seen blue run to is 73. I have popped grand 9 times across a plethora of bets and no Mega yet. All in all you need a large sample size for any AP so if you get burned just play more to get best data.

First rule of AP:

Donít start something you canít finish.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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Mission146
March 4th, 2023 at 3:25:42 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

That was negative EV in my view. I also was up on Big 5 Safari/Pyramid Progressives after my first 500 spins or so.
I got cocky and started playing when Buffalo was like $40.00 at minimum bet (or higher bet equivalent). The house edge caught up to me and now I am deeply in the negative and will not touch the game again unless Buffalo and/or Rhino are extremely high.
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ox is 2.5x reset.
it ate $100 quick and i got only ONE small line hit in 27 spins.
i stopped.
i came back an hr later and it was hit. :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
McSweeney
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Mission146
March 5th, 2023 at 1:59:24 AM permalink
I would have played that. Buffalo at 2.5x rest is my new demand if Rhino is not also high.

I have on a few occasions got a full screen of Lion BUT have never triggered the progressive (the amount you get for the line hit is surprisingly mediocre). When you get a full screen of Buffalo, you seem to have like a 40% chance of tripping the progressive, so I wonder if you have those same odds of tripping Lion when you get the full screen or if they just like teasing you.
100xOdds
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Mission146
March 23rd, 2023 at 10:58:45 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

I would have played that. Buffalo at 2.5x rest is my new demand if Rhino is not also high.

I have on a few occasions got a full screen of Lion BUT have never triggered the progressive (the amount you get for the line hit is surprisingly mediocre).
When you get a full screen of Buffalo, you seem to have like a 40% chance of tripping the progressive, so I wonder if you have those same odds of tripping Lion when you get the full screen or if they just like teasing you.
link to original post



$3.75/spin (i think)
Baby cheetah reset = $100 so i would normally skip it but green is flashing. (Green reset = $375)

Shocked that I got full screen 5x Tigers.
I probably should have kept trying for the baby cheetah but left after that.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Vegasrider
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March 28th, 2023 at 12:42:29 PM permalink
Quote: KingClutch

This is one of my favorite APís. I have played both Rich and Hog wild. Highest I have seen blue run to is 73. I have popped grand 9 times across a plethora of bets and no Mega yet. All in all you need a large sample size for any AP so if you get burned just play more to get best data.

First rule of AP:

Donít start something you canít finish.
link to original post



Roughly how many free games did you have to pop the Grand? And what is the largest youíve seen the Grand at. Someone hit the Mega a couple of weeks ago when I was out of town for 12k at the casino I frequently visit
Mental
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March 28th, 2023 at 7:27:40 PM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

I would have played that. Buffalo at 2.5x rest is my new demand if Rhino is not also high.

I have on a few occasions got a full screen of Lion BUT have never triggered the progressive (the amount you get for the line hit is surprisingly mediocre). When you get a full screen of Buffalo, you seem to have like a 40% chance of tripping the progressive, so I wonder if you have those same odds of tripping Lion when you get the full screen or if they just like teasing you.
link to original post

I believe every Safari level is between 27 and 32% to hit after you fill the screen. But, I am 3 for 7 on the top level. Two for seven would be within my estimated range, so this was probably just good fortune. I am quite confident that they don't gaffe the higher levels so that they never pay.

The game is extremely volatile. You could lose money at 10x reset.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
McSweeney
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March 29th, 2023 at 12:26:51 AM permalink
I agree with that. The game alternates between giving you 30 dead spins in a row and then suddenly a full screen win with 5X multipliers.

Here's my updated data:

Sample size: 6,649 spins (various bets between $0.75 - $3.75)
Total coin-in: $13,256.25
All time profit or loss: $-1,323.44 loss
Average number of spins to trigger Buffalo: 317
Average number of spins to trigger Rhino: 1,108
Average number of spins to trigger Cheetah: 1,662
Average number of spins to trigger Elephant: ??? (never triggered)
Average number of spins to trigger Lion: ??? (never triggered)

I still think this game isn't worth playing but boy I just can't help myself. With my new demands for extremely high Buffalo/Rhino maybe I can slowly claw my way back to being in the black after like 5 years of grinding. You know how professional video poker players tend to be down by a lot, then they finally hit their one royal flush every 40,000 hands and they're up? Maybe I've been playing +EV all along but I'm due for my "royal flush" of finally hitting a Lion at a high bet level and I've correctly limited my losses in the meantime by playing with inflated Buffalos/Rhinos.
Last edited by: McSweeney on Mar 29, 2023
Mental
Mental
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March 29th, 2023 at 5:20:30 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

I agree with that. The game alternates between giving you 30 dead spins in a row and then suddenly a full screen win with 5X multipliers.

Here's my updated data:

Sample size: 6,649 spins (various bets between $0.75 - $3.75)
Total coin-in: $13,256.25
All time profit or loss: $-1,323.44 loss
Average number of spins to trigger Buffalo: 317
Average number of spins to trigger Rhino: 1,108
Average number of spins to trigger Cheetah: 1,662
Average number of spins to trigger Elephant: ??? (never triggered)
Average number of spins to trigger Lion: ??? (never triggered)

I still think this game isn't worth playing but boy I just can't help myself. With my new demands for extremely high Buffalo/Rhino maybe I can slowly claw my way back to being in the black after like 5 years of grinding. You know how professional video poker players tend to be down by a lot, then they finally hit their one royal flush every 40,000 hands and they're up? Maybe I've been playing +EV all along but I'm due for my "royal flush" of finally hitting a Lion at a high bet level and I've correctly limited my losses in the meantime by playing with inflated Buffalos/Rhinos.
link to original post

I think you have been running bad, and this is a hellish game with regards to variance. Here are my cycle numbers:
163 354 1,565 2,087 6,260
These cycles are much lower than yours. Are you using meter movement to accurately record the number of spins? It is really hard to record good data in a casino environment. Free booze does not help.

I found two games that had been converted from nickels to pennies. Most jackpots were all five times higher relative to the bet than they were prior to the change. Some had been hit already at the new denomination. I hit Elephants at max bet for some huge payoff plus all of the lower jackpots. It was an unfavorable jurisdiction as far as taxes, so I did not play for the Lions.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
shapsplace
shapsplace
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March 29th, 2023 at 1:55:58 PM permalink
Quote: KingClutch

This is one of my favorite APís. I have played both Rich and Hog wild. Highest I have seen blue run to is 73. I have popped grand 9 times across a plethora of bets and no Mega yet. All in all you need a large sample size for any AP so if you get burned just play more to get best data.

First rule of AP:

Donít start something you canít finish.
link to original post



This happened to me a couple of days ago. I found a Hog Wild game where the blue was at 25 and the red had the full 100 wilds yellow was pretty big as well. The only problem was it was $45/spin. I had about 8k on me but didn't know how much $$$ would be needed to pop the blue. Dumb me played anyway but decided to stop after losing ~1k. I was pissed to leave what I thought was +ev but didn't want to end up losing the entire 8k. Can anyone point me in the right direction as to where I can find out ~ how much time/$$$ it takes for this game and others?
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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March 29th, 2023 at 2:15:12 PM permalink
Quote: shapsplace

This happened to me a couple of days ago. I found a Hog Wild game where the blue was at 25 and the red had the full 100 wilds yellow was pretty big as well. The only problem was it was $45/spin. I had about 8k on me but didn't know how much $$$ would be needed to pop the blue. Dumb me played anyway but decided to stop after losing ~1k. I was pissed to leave what I thought was +ev but didn't want to end up losing the entire 8k. Can anyone point me in the right direction as to where I can find out ~ how much time/$$$ it takes for this game and others?
link to original post



That's tough. I will say that if you commit to play, you should play until you hit the Blue bonus or go bust. Whether this was the right call depends on your total wealth and appetite for risk, but I'm quite sure it was a good bet.

I could see, in a bad scenario, going about 100 spins before the Blue pig pops. Assuming you lose about half your amount bet along the way, that's losing $2,250. So what you lost without the bonus is not surprising.

In closing, my sympathy for your loss and for leaving the machine.
ďExtraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.Ē -- Carl Sagan
shapsplace
shapsplace
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March 29th, 2023 at 2:44:43 PM permalink
Thanks for the reply.

I think I would've continued to play it out if I hadn't just gotten off 2 Buffalo Link games where I had a starting point over 1450 and over 1500 and lost both sessions.
McSweeney
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March 29th, 2023 at 7:05:32 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: McSweeney

I agree with that. The game alternates between giving you 30 dead spins in a row and then suddenly a full screen win with 5X multipliers.

Here's my updated data:

Sample size: 6,649 spins (various bets between $0.75 - $3.75)
Total coin-in: $13,256.25
All time profit or loss: $-1,323.44 loss
Average number of spins to trigger Buffalo: 317
Average number of spins to trigger Rhino: 1,108
Average number of spins to trigger Cheetah: 1,662
Average number of spins to trigger Elephant: ??? (never triggered)
Average number of spins to trigger Lion: ??? (never triggered)

I still think this game isn't worth playing but boy I just can't help myself. With my new demands for extremely high Buffalo/Rhino maybe I can slowly claw my way back to being in the black after like 5 years of grinding. You know how professional video poker players tend to be down by a lot, then they finally hit their one royal flush every 40,000 hands and they're up? Maybe I've been playing +EV all along but I'm due for my "royal flush" of finally hitting a Lion at a high bet level and I've correctly limited my losses in the meantime by playing with inflated Buffalos/Rhinos.
link to original post

I think you have been running bad, and this is a hellish game with regards to variance. Here are my cycle numbers:
163 354 1,565 2,087 6,260
These cycles are much lower than yours. Are you using meter movement to accurately record the number of spins? It is really hard to record good data in a casino environment. Free booze does not help.

I found two games that had been converted from nickels to pennies. Most jackpots were all five times higher relative to the bet than they were prior to the change. Some had been hit already at the new denomination. I hit Elephants at max bet for some huge payoff plus all of the lower jackpots. It was an unfavorable jurisdiction as far as taxes, so I did not play for the Lions.
link to original post



I count my spins manually. It's possible I erred slightly on a handful of spins but there's no way it explains me needing almost twice as many spins as you to trigger Buffalo. Nor do I think it can be explained with bad luck. I wonder if our games are slightly different versions. And to clarify, this is how many spins it takes me to ACTUALLY trigger the jackpot; if I get a full screen of the animal and I don't win the jackpot, I DON'T count it.
Mental
Mental
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March 30th, 2023 at 6:24:35 AM permalink
I also only count the total number of filled screens, but the cycles I gave were for taking down the progressive at each level. I hate counting when I can get the number of hands from the points earned or the meter movement. Just record at the start of the play and the end of the play and do a division to get the number of hands.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 30th, 2023 at 10:10:54 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

there's no way it explains me needing almost twice as many spins as you to trigger Buffalo. Nor do I think it can be explained with bad luck. I wonder if our games are slightly different versions.
link to original post

i guess i've been lucky.
Tried about 20 times. only 3 times did i lose $:
Twice i quit when the game ate $100 with little or no return.
Third time i got partial 5x in 2 columns with the 2nd highest symbol at $3.75/spin for like $700. Put it all back plus $300 more chasing the middle progressive. Gave up.

the rest i either hit the progressive or an animal full screen with 5x and walked away.
yeah, i know, positive variance in small sample size but i'll take it :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Vegasrider
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March 30th, 2023 at 12:47:35 PM permalink
Quote: shapsplace

Quote: KingClutch

This is one of my favorite APís. I have played both Rich and Hog wild. Highest I have seen blue run to is 73. I have popped grand 9 times across a plethora of bets and no Mega yet. All in all you need a large sample size for any AP so if you get burned just play more to get best data.

First rule of AP:

Donít start something you canít finish.
link to original post



This happened to me a couple of days ago. I found a Hog Wild game where the blue was at 25 and the red had the full 100 wilds yellow was pretty big as well. The only problem was it was $45/spin. I had about 8k on me but didn't know how much $$$ would be needed to pop the blue. Dumb me played anyway but decided to stop after losing ~1k. I was pissed to leave what I thought was +ev but didn't want to end up losing the entire 8k. Can anyone point me in the right direction as to where I can find out ~ how much time/$$$ it takes for this game and others?
link to original post



Even with 25 or 30 games you most likely would have been a loser of you got the blue to pop by itself. You would need to get the yellow to pop with the blue to make any good profit
shapsplace
shapsplace
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March 30th, 2023 at 2:06:57 PM permalink
Thanks Vegasrider! I thought since the red was full 100 wilds and yellow was bumped up that it still was a positive play. Do you feel like that's incorrect? How many games would it take you to start in that situation?
darkoz
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March 30th, 2023 at 2:36:58 PM permalink
They should just rename this game broke little piggies!
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
McSweeney
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March 30th, 2023 at 10:40:36 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

I also only count the total number of filled screens, but the cycles I gave were for taking down the progressive at each level. I hate counting when I can get the number of hands from the points earned or the meter movement. Just record at the start of the play and the end of the play and do a division to get the number of hands.
link to original post



Do our games have the same meter movement? Mine is as follows:

Lion - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $208.00
Elephant - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $127.00
Cheetah - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $84.00
Rhino - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $58.00
Buffalo - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $45.00

The bottom pots have the fastest meter movement of any other progressive jackpot game I've ever tracked. Hence why I'm fixated on the idea that there surely must be an advantage play (despite my own experience saying otherwise so far).
100xOdds
100xOdds
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March 31st, 2023 at 12:26:12 AM permalink
5 cent denom


ox = 1.7x reset
rhino = 1.5x
leopard= 1.6x

combined = 4.8x reset

Playable?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mental
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March 31st, 2023 at 9:37:02 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Quote: Mental

I also only count the total number of filled screens, but the cycles I gave were for taking down the progressive at each level. I hate counting when I can get the number of hands from the points earned or the meter movement. Just record at the start of the play and the end of the play and do a division to get the number of hands.
link to original post



Do our games have the same meter movement? Mine is as follows:

Lion - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $208.00
Elephant - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $127.00
Cheetah - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $84.00
Rhino - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $58.00
Buffalo - Moving meter by $1.00 costs $45.00

The bottom pots have the fastest meter movement of any other progressive jackpot game I've ever tracked. Hence why I'm fixated on the idea that there surely must be an advantage play (despite my own experience saying otherwise so far).
link to original post

Yes, you have worse than average meter rates, but I have seen worse. It has been 5 years since I really paid much attention to Safari. I dug these numbers out of a old spread sheet. This is the worst I have seen:
0.4497% $222.35
0.7596% $131.64
1.1663% $85.74
1.6750% $59.70
2.1837% $45.79

This is the best set of meter rates:
0.5484% $182.35
0.8742% $114.39
1.2997% $76.94
1.8319% $54.59
2.3455% $42.63

Most of the games I have played are over 2.3% for the lowest meter.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
Mental
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March 31st, 2023 at 9:50:18 AM permalink
I would not add the raw raw ratios. They need to be weighted. L1 being elevated is worth more than L3. Also, ratios closer to reset actually reduce the EV.

Without plugging this into my spreadsheet, I would say it is not close to playable.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
itsmejeff
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April 1st, 2023 at 12:19:00 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

Quote: shapsplace

Quote: KingClutch

This is one of my favorite APís. I have played both Rich and Hog wild. Highest I have seen blue run to is 73. I have popped grand 9 times across a plethora of bets and no Mega yet. All in all you need a large sample size for any AP so if you get burned just play more to get best data.

First rule of AP:

Donít start something you canít finish.
link to original post



This happened to me a couple of days ago. I found a Hog Wild game where the blue was at 25 and the red had the full 100 wilds yellow was pretty big as well. The only problem was it was $45/spin. I had about 8k on me but didn't know how much $$$ would be needed to pop the blue. Dumb me played anyway but decided to stop after losing ~1k. I was pissed to leave what I thought was +ev but didn't want to end up losing the entire 8k. Can anyone point me in the right direction as to where I can find out ~ how much time/$$$ it takes for this game and others?
link to original post



Even with 25 or 30 games you most likely would have been a loser of you got the blue to pop by itself. You would need to get the yellow to pop with the blue to make any good profit
link to original post


I watched someone land a blue at 35 to get a 29x win. As if that is not bad enough, the person kept playing after the blue reset. I felt very sad as I can only assume the person has a severe gambling problem.
Mukke
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April 2nd, 2023 at 3:16:24 PM permalink
I saw a guy hit blue only on $6 with 52 free games.

It was not a story with a happy ending.

FWIW, I've hit the Mega on $15 bet. That was a good day.
Vegasrider
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April 3rd, 2023 at 6:00:24 AM permalink
Quote: Mukke

I saw a guy hit blue only on $6 with 52 free games.

It was not a story with a happy ending.

FWIW, I've hit the Mega on $15 bet. That was a good day.
link to original post



$15 a push is huge. The odd thing the Mega pays the same with a .75 or $15 push.
McSweeney
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April 4th, 2023 at 5:27:49 PM permalink
I've been playing Rich Little Piggies for about 6 months. Today I finally won a Grand Jackpot ($500.00) with only a $1.50 bet. The Blue + Yellow bonus round had run up to a whopping 41 blue games but I collected Grand coins rapidly and triggered it after only like 17 games had run through.
vbnm4
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April 5th, 2023 at 12:59:06 PM permalink
I recently discovered the slot machine game Rich Little Piggies, and I've been having a blast playing it. The game features five reels and 20 paylines, with a fun cartoonish theme and cute little pigs as the main characters.

One of the things I love about Rich Little Piggies is the variety of bonus features it offers. There's a Piggy Bank Bonus, where you can smash piggy banks to reveal cash prizes, as well as a Free Spins Bonus, where you can win up to 15 free spins with a 2x multiplier.
McSweeney
McSweeney
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April 5th, 2023 at 6:07:18 PM permalink
That's Piggy Bankin'.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 17th, 2023 at 8:18:38 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

I would not add the raw raw ratios. They need to be weighted. L1 being elevated is worth more than L3. Also, ratios closer to reset actually reduce the EV.

Without plugging this into my spreadsheet, I would say it is not close to playable.
link to original post



$3.75/spin, 2.7x reset.
Ate first $600 quick and no blackout animals at all.
Then got blackout ox twice before hitting the prog the 3rd time at $290.
lost $400. :(

I started with $300.
Instead of putting in another $300, Should I have walked away from the 2.7x (now 2.8x) when i saw the pattern of not giving much in return?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
linksjunkie
linksjunkie
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April 17th, 2023 at 8:39:25 AM permalink
If you felt it was a good play at that start then it was still a good play after first $300.

Kinda like stock investments. If you do your research and find a stock you like at $50 a share and buy it and then it goes to $40 (barring any significant company changes/problems) the stocks an even better buy.
Son you ainít paying attention Iím cutting you but you ainít bleeding - Foghorn Leghorn
Mental
Mental
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TheCapitalShip
April 17th, 2023 at 9:49:43 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: Mental

I would not add the raw raw ratios. They need to be weighted. L1 being elevated is worth more than L3. Also, ratios closer to reset actually reduce the EV.

Without plugging this into my spreadsheet, I would say it is not close to playable.
link to original post



$3.75/spin, 2.7x reset.
Ate first $600 quick and no blackout animals at all.
Then got blackout ox twice before hitting the prog the 3rd time at $290.
lost $400. :(

I started with $300.
Instead of putting in another $300, Should I have walked away from the 2.7x (now 2.8x) when i saw the pattern of not giving much in return?
link to original post

LOL. Your experience of volatility is just the proof that the game is working as designed. Unless this is some really tight variant of the game, it is +EV.

I only played one Safari this month. It was $3.75 and I was playing for L2 at 1.8x and L1 at 2x. On the second spin, I hit two columns of 5x for $1003. On about the 35th spin, I got full screen of Elephants and converted for $678. I filled the screen with Rhinos twice and hit the progressive on the second try. I left the game since L1 was two low by itself. When I came back the next day, the L1 Cape Buffalo was at 2.3x so I continued and took down that L1progressive on the second try.

I took down L1, L2, and L4 progressives in just 155 spins and I had a net gain of $2053. I was just doing my part to offset your negative volatility so the average would work out.

You never know when you are going to go on a heater, but never walk away from +EV just because you got a bad vibe.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 18th, 2023 at 11:54:27 AM permalink
Mental,
I'm Saying there's a pattern and you just gave an example.

Extreme variance.

If it doesn't start of good, then you're probably going to lose $.
The first$100 or $200 should give you a hint of things to come.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Talldude90
Talldude90
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April 20th, 2023 at 1:17:46 AM permalink
I can't help but to think that anything associated with patterns is just humans trying to make sense of random. This would fall into some of the principals of the gamblers fallacy. I can't help to agree that what you (100x) are saying FEELS true, but it would seem to me that statistically it wouldn't make sense and if true would fall into the realm of pattern recognition (and that's a slippery slope (roulette, Bac, etc)). The only thing that I remember reading about anything to do with something like this is the Russian team that took down casinos with playing during +EV cycles of the RNG chip's algo. But I doubt that the human mind could really pick up on that intuitively and if it could then you wouldn't even need x times the progressive to play...
mcallister3200
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RogerKint
April 20th, 2023 at 2:17:52 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Mental,
I'm Saying there's a pattern and you just gave an example.

Extreme variance.

If it doesn't start of good, then you're probably going to lose $.
The first$100 or $200 should give you a hint of things to come.
link to original post



Wut?
Mental
Mental
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April 20th, 2023 at 4:36:07 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Mental,
I'm Saying there's a pattern and you just gave an example.

Extreme variance.

If it doesn't start of good, then you're probably going to lose $.
The first$100 or $200 should give you a hint of things to come.
link to original post

Great! You have a model in your mind of how randomness leads to predictable streakiness. I probably cannot say anything that will dislodge this particularly unhelpful mental model from your brain.
This forum is more enjoyable after I learned how to use the 'Block this user' button.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 20th, 2023 at 1:29:20 PM permalink
Quote: Mental

Quote: 100xOdds

Mental,
I'm Saying there's a pattern and you just gave an example.

Extreme variance.

If it doesn't start of good, then you're probably going to lose $.
The first$100 or $200 should give you a hint of things to come.
link to original post

Great! You have a model in your mind of how randomness leads to predictable streakiness. I probably cannot say anything that will dislodge this particularly unhelpful mental model from your brain.
link to original post

logically, patterns in slots make no sense.

But this game is the most feast/famine game I've played.

So if the game returns little to nothing in the 1st $100 ($200 for $3.75/spin), then odds are you're not going to make$ on the play.

It'll probably be cheaper to eat the loss and walk away than continue and hitting the progressive
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
McSweeney
McSweeney
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April 20th, 2023 at 5:45:49 PM permalink
Either you have faith that the Random Number Generator is truly random for every single spin or you don't. You would do well to keep the faith.
Mukke
Mukke
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April 22nd, 2023 at 1:06:53 PM permalink
I think most of us has experienced this feeling on various machines at different times. Some people have more success than others at disregarding the feeling, as most people here will likely agree it's just that - a feeling.

The only real way to prove/disprove something like this would be to make a scientific test: explicitly document your theory in detail, then every time you play the machine, make a prediction after n plays, and then play m more plays and document the result.

Does your theory hold up? or is the m plays just as random as the n plays, or is there correlation between BOTH negative and positive predictions prior to the m plays?

But the easy objection to this of course is that no-one convinced of their theory would want to play (and thus verify) when the prediction is negative.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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April 23rd, 2023 at 6:01:27 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Either you have faith that the Random Number Generator is truly random for every single spin or you don't. You would do well to keep the faith.
link to original post

you're right.
if it's +ev, keep playing till it hits, like my previous example:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/37286-rich-little-piggies/2/#post886902)

What i'm going to use my feast/famine feeling is on speculative plays like if the above example was 2.2x reset instead of 2.7x.
if it eats my 1st bill(s) w/o much return, i'm quitting
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Talldude90
Talldude90
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April 24th, 2023 at 5:25:01 PM permalink
You can always just play a set amount of money through on non must hit bys. If your playing with +EV then long term you will still profit.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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May 28th, 2023 at 10:20:07 AM permalink
Blue with Max wilds:

Results:


Yuck :(
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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July 3rd, 2023 at 6:58:49 AM permalink
Quote: McSweeney

Either you have faith that the Random Number Generator is truly random for every single spin or you don't. You would do well to keep the faith.
link to original post



orange at 2.3x reset, green progressive is glowing
but bottom progressive is at reset.
skipped.
would you have played? why?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
McSweeney
McSweeney
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July 3rd, 2023 at 9:12:31 AM permalink
I wouldn't have touched that. Green being glowing isn't that influential for me because it's too hard to get (my data has me getting it once every 2,096 spins) and there are certain, extremely rare situations where the Orange being inflated would justify going for it by itself, but it's not high enough for that. The highest I've ever seen Orange inflated is 3.19x bet. I'd need at least 3x before I even consider it when Blue is at reset.
shapsplace
shapsplace
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July 3rd, 2023 at 9:44:55 AM permalink
How are reset levels found for this game? Is it in the game rules on the display? Thanks in advance.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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shapsplace
July 3rd, 2023 at 12:28:40 PM permalink
Quote: shapsplace

How are reset levels found for this game? Is it in the game rules on the display? Thanks in advance.
link to original post

i just memorized it.
at .75 denom, reset is $20, $50, $75. i dont bother with the top2.
for the other denoms, just multiply.

i am surprised at the big jump from bottom progressive to lvl 2 but only slightly more for lvl3
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)

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