Roberto21
Roberto21
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February 3rd, 2022 at 8:42:46 PM permalink
If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?

TIA.
100xOdds
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Roberto21
February 4th, 2022 at 6:38:14 AM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?

TIA.
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i thought about the same no house edge for double up.
just keep doubling up till the next win is a handpay,

but you dont earn points for double up.
plus noone else is doing it so there must be a reason
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mukke
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February 4th, 2022 at 9:40:56 AM permalink
If a slot purely consisted of "coin toss" double up, would you play it?

Probably not, because slots are generally made to be more entertaining that just a coin toss.

That's why people don't do it - it doesn't have the same entertainment value.
heatmap
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February 4th, 2022 at 3:53:31 PM permalink
Quote: Mukke

If a slot purely consisted of "coin toss" double up, would you play it?

Probably not, because slots are generally made to be more entertaining that just a coin toss.

That's why people don't do it - it doesn't have the same entertainment value.
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Roberto21
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February 4th, 2022 at 8:46:57 PM permalink
The thing that confuses me is how can the expected loss be the same if doubling-up (e.g. half the time) increases your RTP?

Take this excerpt from Bob Dancer on GWAE @37:52 (link: /Stv3w9nM3wk ):

“The double up feature is an even money bet; that is, returning 100%. There are some reasons to consider it: If you’re playing a game where the house has the edge, it allows you to play longer with the same expected loss. An 800 hands p/h player is reduced to maybe 500 hands when using double-up. If he started with a 98% game and doubled up half the time at 100%, this means you’re now playing a 98.5% game, and fewer hands than you had before..”.

Couldn’t you also apply Bob’s logic to any payback percentage on a slot machine? I.e. doubling up half the time on a slot machine with a payback percentage (RTP) of 92% will increase your RTP 0.5% to 92.5%?

If you are getting a higher return (RTP), how is your expected loss the same? Wouldn’t it be less?

Am I right in thinking the double-up feature will give you the same expected loss over time; but it will increase short-term variance? And a ‘triple-up’ or ‘quadruple-up’ option with 100% RTP, will also result in the same expected loss over time (as never using these features), and it will also increase short-term variance?

So does the double-up/triple-up/quadruple-up feature really increase RTP? And does it make any difference (to your overall RTP) if you double up every time, as opposed to only half the time?
Romes
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February 4th, 2022 at 11:27:15 PM permalink
1) Any and all features may be used in ways that can benefit the player, sometimes, not always.

2) This is how we go down the craps and odds rabbit hole... The Sum of your EV is the EV of every single bet.

He is not playing a 98.5% game. What is happening is he's playing 2 games... a 98% game, and a 100% game. Bob is saying if he plays the 100% game often enough then "essentially" it's like playing a 98.5% game, but let us be very, very clear. He's playing a 98% game and his -EV from that will be 2% times his coin in. End of story.

If you make a $10 pass line bet (1.41% HE) then you've lost 14.1 cents in -EV. If you lay $10,000,000 on an even money odds bet, you haven't changed your -EV at all. The argument is again "averaging" two completely different games together for arguments sake, but the EV is still calculated the same.. the summation of all bets and their respective EV's:

EV(Pass Line + Odds) = EV(Pass Line) + EV(Odds) = 10(-.0141) + X(0)... where X is the amount you bet and 0 is the house edge which is why it gets canceled out and you're left with your original -EV...

Thus, EV(Pass Line + Odds) = EV(Pass Line).

People make arguments about "composite" house edges, which never made much sense to me... EV is king.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
Dieter
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February 7th, 2022 at 1:13:55 PM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?

TIA.
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Do you value a $100 bill more than you value two $50 bills?
May the cards fall in your favor.
unJon
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February 7th, 2022 at 8:06:02 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: Roberto21

If a slot machine double-up feature has a 100% RTP, is it theoretically smarter to try to double up every pay on a (-ev) slot machine than ‘take win’ on every pay? Would you turn-over more money (i.e. ‘get more play’) with the same initial bankroll using the double-up feature for every pay? Or would the (average) turn-over be the same, but you’re bankroll would last longer simply because the double-up feature slows down the rate of play?

TIA.
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Do you value a $100 bill more than you value two $50 bills?
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No. But I do value a $100 bill slightly more than two $49.99 bills.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Roberto21
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February 8th, 2022 at 1:09:55 AM permalink
The way I have interpreted it is it neither increases nor decreases your expected value, it just slows down you making ‘bad bets’, or bets with a house edge. Of course, Bob points out other valuable uses of it in regards to saving tipping money, but over the long term using this feature is not going to statistically impact your bottom line.

However, I would argue that for a non-Advantage player, or even an advantage player who is adequately bankrolled, using this feature could be worthwhile for a) Helping them reach a specific win target (in the case of the recreational player) or b) Helping bankroll an advantage play in the event that their variance runs good. On that note, a player who is also inadequately bankrolled for an advantage play/MHB may benefit from the use of this feature.

I was going to post the other day about the Penney Ante Game: Counterintuitive probabilities.. but I don’t think there’s any mathematical advantage that can be gained from that approach. The theory goes that in a coin-tossing game, a certain sequence of heads or tails is more likely to show up first. And the ‘expected waiting time’ can vary significantly between different sequences, eg. HHHHH vs HTHHT. But again, I don’t think this is a strategy that can be applied to roulette or the double-up feature. If it can, please do correct me on this!

Overall, I think the double-up feature is a good idea for the player who wants to win X amount, but a bad idea for the player who wants to play only for entertainment.
Dieter
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February 8th, 2022 at 3:51:08 AM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

However, I would argue that for a non-Advantage player, or even an advantage player who is adequately bankrolled, using this feature could be worthwhile for a) Helping them reach a specific win target (in the case of the recreational player) or b) Helping bankroll an advantage play in the event that their variance runs good. On that note, a player who is also inadequately bankrolled for an advantage play/MHB may benefit from the use of this feature.
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Perhaps you are onto something too cunning for my comprehension.
In case you are not, it is a straight gamble - double or nothing with your winnings at fair odds.

Best of luck in your endeavours.
May the cards fall in your favor.
Roberto21
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February 8th, 2022 at 5:43:17 AM permalink
I asked Michael Bluejay about this and he agreed.
If a player has a $300 bankroll and their goal is to win $3000 on a slot machine betting $3 per spin, they would be more likely to do so using the double-up feature than playing it normally, as $3000 wins are rare on a $3 bet. I would even hazard a guess that the expected cost of doubling a $100 win 5 times into $3200 would be less than the expected cost of winning that much from normal game play.

Both are negative EV plays, but clearly one is smarter than the other.
billryan
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February 8th, 2022 at 8:19:55 AM permalink
Quote: Roberto21

I asked Michael Bluejay about this and he agreed.
If a player has a $300 bankroll and their goal is to win $3000 on a slot machine betting $3 per spin, they would be more likely to do so using the double-up feature than playing it normally, as $3000 wins are rare on a $3 bet. I would even hazard a guess that the expected cost of doubling a $100 win 5 times into $3200 would be less than the expected cost of winning that much from normal game play.

Both are negative EV plays, but clearly one is smarter than the other.
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Michael Bluejay is an author with little to no gambling expertise. You might as well ask Joe Rogan or Larry David.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Roberto21
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February 8th, 2022 at 4:31:42 PM permalink
I appreciate that, and he also made clear to me the limits to his expertise when I hit him with a harder slot statistics question. But the truth is Michael helped me more with my slots-related math (and strategy-based) question(s), than anyone on the Math Stack Exchange forums. And my question did garner a lot of attention from the community, including from people who have supposedly worked on slot machines for many years.

So I would politely disagree that Michael is on the same level as those other comics you mentioned, but I appreciate you were being facetious and hyperbolic to make a point, and not serious.
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