McSweeney
McSweeney
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October 26th, 2021 at 8:49:35 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: McSweeney

Yeah, I used to ignore 88 Fortunes and Dancing Drums at my casino because I am only interested in advantage machines. But lately I've started taking notes as to the jackpot amounts of these games, and I am trying to create a "highest I've ever seen the Grand/Major/etc. jackpot" record to get a feel for what is a much greater jackpot than usual to inform my decision to perhaps go after one.
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Exactly what I do on Rakin Bacon. There is an opportunity there for sure!
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How crazy do you go? Do you commit 100% and max bet until you hit it or do you set a limit and stay within it?
McSweeney
McSweeney
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October 27th, 2021 at 8:06:02 AM permalink
Yes, true, the machine isn't "due" and your odds of hitting the jackpot aren't any greater than they were when 1,000 spins ago. However, there is an important difference between the progressive jackpot situation and the pure gambler's fallacy of thinking the machine is "due": the jackpot has run up so high that the expected amount of times you need to hit the spin button to trip the jackpot, and the amount of money that this is going to cost, will eventually be smaller than the amount of money that you'll win by tripping the jackpot. Of course, there is no guarantee that you will hit the jackpot in this timeframe; it's just what the odds say.

To illustrate, let me make an extreme example. Let's say that by some bizarre twist of fate, the 88 Fortunes Grand jackpot has not hit for a very long time and has now run up to $1 billion, even though the odds of hitting the Grand jackpot are just the same as it was when it was at $15,000.00; I have no clue what those odds are but let's assume it's something like a 1 in 50,000 chance. The very obvious thing that you should do is go down to the bank, take out a mortgage on your house, bet 5 gold symbols, max bet and don't stop until you hit that jackpot.
mwalz9
mwalz9
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October 27th, 2021 at 9:00:46 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: McSweeney

Yeah, I used to ignore 88 Fortunes and Dancing Drums at my casino because I am only interested in advantage machines. But lately I've started taking notes as to the jackpot amounts of these games, and I am trying to create a "highest I've ever seen the Grand/Major/etc. jackpot" record to get a feel for what is a much greater jackpot than usual to inform my decision to perhaps go after one.
link to original post



Exactly what I do on Rakin Bacon. There is an opportunity there for sure!
link to original post



But it’s not a real opportunity, right? Because these machines aren’t “due.”
link to original post



Is the machine "due"? No. However, if over the course of many, many months and trips to the casino you notice the mini on Rakin Bacon resets at $10.00 on an $0.88 bet, and historically the average after hundred of trackings of this progressive, you see it averages around $18.88 before it hits, and you walk by and it's at $32, I feel its as worth a good of a play as anything in the casino. I am using the mini just as an example. I have hit these progressives many times doing this, I have also burnt thru the bankroll I was willing to lose trying to trip it, but I feel like its as good as a strategy as just picking any random slot in the casino.

Yes, one could argue how many hundreds or thousands of dollars were spent watching it go from $18.88 to $32, but as I said, better to me than just a lucky guess.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 27th, 2021 at 3:04:33 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: FinsRule

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: McSweeney

Yeah, I used to ignore 88 Fortunes and Dancing Drums at my casino because I am only interested in advantage machines. But lately I've started taking notes as to the jackpot amounts of these games, and I am trying to create a "highest I've ever seen the Grand/Major/etc. jackpot" record to get a feel for what is a much greater jackpot than usual to inform my decision to perhaps go after one.
link to original post



Exactly what I do on Rakin Bacon. There is an opportunity there for sure!
link to original post



But it’s not a real opportunity, right? Because these machines aren’t “due.”
link to original post



Is the machine "due"? No. However, if over the course of many, many months and trips to the casino you notice the mini on Rakin Bacon resets at $10.00 on an $0.88 bet, and historically the average after hundred of trackings of this progressive, you see it averages around $18.88 before it hits, and you walk by and it's at $32, I feel its as worth a good of a play as anything in the casino. I am using the mini just as an example. I have hit these progressives many times doing this, I have also burnt thru the bankroll I was willing to lose trying to trip it, but I feel like its as good as a strategy as just picking any random slot in the casino.

Yes, one could argue how many hundreds or thousands of dollars were spent watching it go from $18.88 to $32, but as I said, better to me than just a lucky guess.
link to original post

for rakin bacon, i saw the mini at $100+.
i burned through $500 at max bet ($8.88?) before i gave up.
maybe i should have min bet?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
mwalz9
mwalz9
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October 27th, 2021 at 4:10:34 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: FinsRule

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: McSweeney

Yeah, I used to ignore 88 Fortunes and Dancing Drums at my casino because I am only interested in advantage machines. But lately I've started taking notes as to the jackpot amounts of these games, and I am trying to create a "highest I've ever seen the Grand/Major/etc. jackpot" record to get a feel for what is a much greater jackpot than usual to inform my decision to perhaps go after one.
link to original post



I bet Ive tracked that machine an estimated 500 times. Ive NEVER seen the mini above $53 EVER! Id say thats just bad luck if this wasnt an exaggerated story to make a point.

Exactly what I do on Rakin Bacon. There is an opportunity there for sure!
link to original post



But it’s not a real opportunity, right? Because these machines aren’t “due.”
link to original post



Is the machine "due"? No. However, if over the course of many, many months and trips to the casino you notice the mini on Rakin Bacon resets at $10.00 on an $0.88 bet, and historically the average after hundred of trackings of this progressive, you see it averages around $18.88 before it hits, and you walk by and it's at $32, I feel its as worth a good of a play as anything in the casino. I am using the mini just as an example. I have hit these progressives many times doing this, I have also burnt thru the bankroll I was willing to lose trying to trip it, but I feel like its as good as a strategy as just picking any random slot in the casino.

Yes, one could argue how many hundreds or thousands of dollars were spent watching it go from $18.88 to $32, but as I said, better to me than just a lucky guess.
link to original post

for rakin bacon, i saw the mini at $100+.
i burned through $500 at max bet ($8.88?) before i gave up.
maybe i should have min bet?
link to original post

mwalz9
mwalz9
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October 27th, 2021 at 4:11:14 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: FinsRule

Quote: mwalz9

Quote: McSweeney

Yeah, I used to ignore 88 Fortunes and Dancing Drums at my casino because I am only interested in advantage machines. But lately I've started taking notes as to the jackpot amounts of these games, and I am trying to create a "highest I've ever seen the Grand/Major/etc. jackpot" record to get a feel for what is a much greater jackpot than usual to inform my decision to perhaps go after one.
link to original post



Exactly what I do on Rakin Bacon. There is an opportunity there for sure!
link to original post



But it’s not a real opportunity, right? Because these machines aren’t “due.”
link to original post



Is the machine "due"? No. However, if over the course of many, many months and trips to the casino you notice the mini on Rakin Bacon resets at $10.00 on an $0.88 bet, and historically the average after hundred of trackings of this progressive, you see it averages around $18.88 before it hits, and you walk by and it's at $32, I feel its as worth a good of a play as anything in the casino. I am using the mini just as an example. I have hit these progressives many times doing this, I have also burnt thru the bankroll I was willing to lose trying to trip it, but I feel like its as good as a strategy as just picking any random slot in the casino.

Yes, one could argue how many hundreds or thousands of dollars were spent watching it go from $18.88 to $32, but as I said, better to me than just a lucky guess.
link to original post

for rakin bacon, i saw the mini at $100+.
i burned through $500 at max bet ($8.88?) before i gave up.
maybe i should have min bet?
link to original post




I bet Ive tracked that machine an estimated 500 times. Ive NEVER seen the mini above $53 EVER! Id say thats just bad luck if this wasnt an exaggerated story to make a point.
McSweeney
McSweeney
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October 27th, 2021 at 5:10:46 PM permalink
My understanding of Rakin' Bacon is that you are automatically eligible for every jackpot, even at the minimum bet. Making a bigger bet simply gives you a greater chance of hitting every kind of jackpot. So there is built-in inefficiency at targeting one particular jackpot.

In my view, the great advantage of 88 Fortunes and Dancing Drums is that you can forfeit eligibility for the higher jackpots in order to more cost-effectively target a lower jackpot that is inflated.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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October 27th, 2021 at 5:22:40 PM permalink
This thead is a split-off from 88 Fortunes. This link will take you to the first post about it, which I neglected to include here.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
McSweeney
McSweeney
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October 27th, 2021 at 6:54:02 PM permalink
I disagree with this thread split. The discussion regarding jackpot accumulation was relevant to 88 Fortunes and its unique strategic opportunity to target certain jackpots.
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 27th, 2021 at 7:29:25 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This thead is a split-off from 88 Fortunes. This link will take you to the first post about it, which I neglected to include here.
link to original post

interesting.. even though i have a reply before this topic was split off, it doesnt show up on my thread subscription list.

hence, this reply should now put this thread on my subscription list.
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
100xOdds
100xOdds
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October 27th, 2021 at 7:31:32 PM permalink
Quote: mwalz9

Quote: 100xOdds

Quote: mwalz9

Is the machine "due"? No. However, if over the course of many, many months and trips to the casino you notice the mini on Rakin Bacon resets at $10.00 on an $0.88 bet, and historically the average after hundred of trackings of this progressive, you see it averages around $18.88 before it hits, and you walk by and it's at $32, I feel its as worth a good of a play as anything in the casino. I am using the mini just as an example. I have hit these progressives many times doing this, I have also burnt thru the bankroll I was willing to lose trying to trip it, but I feel like its as good as a strategy as just picking any random slot in the casino.

Yes, one could argue how many hundreds or thousands of dollars were spent watching it go from $18.88 to $32, but as I said, better to me than just a lucky guess.
link to original post

for rakin bacon, i saw the mini at $100+.
i burned through $500 at max bet ($8.88?) before i gave up.
maybe i should have min bet?
link to original post


I bet Ive tracked that machine an estimated 500 times. Ive NEVER seen the mini above $53 EVER! Id say thats just bad luck if this wasnt an exaggerated story to make a point.
link to original post

i guess your casino has the machine set to a higher payout than my casino?
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Roberto21
Roberto21
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February 5th, 2022 at 10:14:56 AM permalink
In regards to 88 Fortunes, I too have been tracking these progressives for years and I can tell you that the Minor (which starts at $50 and maxes out at $125) *appears* to be a play at above $105. I have played it 3 or 4 times recently at around $106Ish and made money on it. I suggest you play only 3 gold symbols, which I think is 38 credits, as that is all you need to bet to be eligible for the Minor jackpot. Also, for what it’s worth, I have found more often than not if I have 2 minor symbols on the screen if I wait 30 seconds for the machine to auto-select it will pick the third Minor. I don’t know why this is. I know that bonus is predetermined, but it is an interesting quirk I have noticed.

The Mini (which starts at $20 and maxes out at $45) I have seen go up to $45 then reset to $45 after it was hit, then reset to $29ish after it was hit the second time.

The Major (which starts at $500 and am pretty sure is not capped) I have seen go up to $2400ish about 3 times over the years, but it rarely goes above $1200.

The Grand (which starts at $5000 and also has no ceiling I believe) I have seen go as high as $11,300+ 4 times over the years, and one at my local is currently up to $12600ish. They rarely go above $10,000.

These are for standalone progressive machines. For linked progressives, I have seen the $10,000 Grand go up to about $38,000ish at it’s highest. But I haven’t monitored them much as they are not in venues around me.
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