Was there ever reality in this slot machine myth?
Quote: AZDuffmanSlot machines today are RNG programed and there is no such thing as a "due" machine. No need to discuss that further. But on this weekend's trip mentioned elsewhere I had to explain it to my poker buddy. However, it got me to thinking. Was there ever a time when machines were "due" to hit? My understanding is that before the early to mid 1970s there was not really a "true" RNG program out there for slots and VP and the Circus Circus Empire was started by profits earned making one. So, is this myth out there because machines were once "due" to hit, from the mechanical ones to the first modern-looking ones in the 1970s?
The mechanical ones couldn't possibly have been "due", because they had no way to remember past spins.
There was no true RNG available in the first days of computer-based slots, but there still isn't such a program available today--only a pseudo-RNG. The question is whether a computer-based machine would "store" the results of recent spins, and alter future outcomes accordingly. Aside from the fact that this would violate about fifteen different gaming regulations, my understanding is that only the last few spins are stored in memory, to help resolve disputes. So no, I don't think any machine, past or present, has ever become "due".
Quote: mkl654321The mechanical ones couldn't possibly have been "due", because they had no way to remember past spins.
Completely untrue. In fact, the better pay out machines were stalked in Vegas and when one hadn't paid off in a few weeks, teams of players would descend on them and play them till did pay off, which sometimes took awhile. The casinos didn't care, somebody had to win, it was all the same to them. The woman BJ player who was interviewed in 'Gambling Wizards' (I can't recall her name) ran a profitable slot team in the 80's. She had teams of elderly people who played the machines that were 'due' and she made over 100K a year doing it. She also says those days are long gone thanks to the computer chip.
Quote: EvenBobCompletely untrue. In fact, the better pay out machines were stalked in Vegas and when one hadn't paid off in a few weeks, teams of players would descend on them and play them till did pay off, which sometimes took awhile. The casinos didn't care, somebody had to win, it was all the same to them. The woman BJ player who was interviewed in 'Gambling Wizards' (I can't recall her name) ran a profitable slot team in the 80's. She had teams of elderly people who played the machines that were 'due' and she made over 100K a year doing it. She also says those days are long gone thanks to the computer chip.
I'd like to see some proof of this. I'd also like to know how a mechanical machine became "due".
And the fact that such a machine eventually did pay off for those "teams" wouldn't have meant that it was "due". What I'd like to see is some proof that the machines would somehow change their own jackpot probabilities in midstream as more and more time elapsed without them being hit. This would probably have been possible in SOME way, but it would have been totally illegal, and aside from that, why would a casino do it? The longer the big jackpot is there, the more people will play the machine. The casino WOULD care about that.
Quote: mkl654321I'd like to see some proof of this. I'd also like to know how a mechanical machine became "due"..
In fact, I know somebody who did it in Vegas in the 50's on the cast metal one armed bandits that are so collectible now. He would stake out machines with his buddies and when one didn't pay off for awhile, they would play it till it did. They would play it non stop in shifts for as long as it took. It was very boring but it was profitable and many people were doing it. As long as coins were going in, the casinos could care less who won.
Quote: EvenBobIn fact, I know somebody who did it in Vegas in the 50's on the cast metal one armed bandits that are so collectible now. He would stake out machines with his buddies and when one didn't pay off for awhile, they would play it till it did. They would play it non stop in shifts for as long as it took. It was very boring but it was profitable and many people were doing it. As long as coins were going in, the casinos could care less who won.
That doesn't prove the machines were, in fact, "due", which implies that the chance of hitting the jackpot was getting greater as time went on. How, exactly, would a mechanical machine have done that? And what about the fact that doing that would have been totally illegal, so if the casino managed this somehow, they would have been cheating FOR the customer??
Quote: mkl654321That doesn't prove the machines were, in fact, "due",
Some players noticed that the mechanical machines paid off on a very regular basis. Nothing exact, nothing you could pin down, but if a machine didn't pay off for a few weeks, its was due to pay off sometime soon. On some of them they broke even, but on a vast majority they made money. It was grunt work, but it beat a 9 to 5 job. I'm certainly not making this up, its well known Vegas lore.
Quote: mkl654321That doesn't prove the machines were, in fact, "due", which implies that the chance of hitting the jackpot was getting greater as time went on.
Machines weren't "due" because a person couldn't say what hour they were going to pay off, Detroit hasn't been "destroyed" because you can still see a rotting hulk of a city, where does this word-meaning hair-splitting end?
Quote: AZDuffmanMachines weren't "due" because a person couldn't say what hour they were going to pay off, Detroit hasn't been "destroyed" because you can still see a rotting hulk of a city, where does this word-meaning hair-splitting end?
Using the proper word isn't "hair-splitting"; it's using the proper word. Playing a machine because it's supposedly "due" means you think that the machine is more likely to hit than it was before. I would still like to see some proof of that, as in, how did the machine perceive the lapse of time since the last jackpot, and then alter itself accordingly?
Quote: EvenBobSome players noticed that the mechanical machines paid off on a very regular basis. Nothing exact, nothing you could pin down, but if a machine didn't pay off for a few weeks, its was due to pay off sometime soon. On some of them they broke even, but on a vast majority they made money. It was grunt work, but it beat a 9 to 5 job. I'm certainly not making this up, its well known Vegas lore.
Well, there's a lot of "lore" out there. I would still like to know how anyone thought the machine knew that it hadn't hit a jackpot, and how it altered itself accordingly to change the chance of that jackpot.
I am also still wondering exactly WHY the casino would do this.
First is "pull tab" games, which are not real slots, but can be skinned to look like one. With paper pull tabs there is a fixed number of each outcome in each batch of tickets. In some states, like Iowa, rather than using paper, the outcome can be displayed in some other game. So, if there were 10,000 tickets in a batch, and the single jackpot winner was not in the first 9,999 games, then the 10,000th game would have to be the winner. However, the player probably wouldn't know when a new batch started, and there might be other machines drawing off the same batch.
Second is what is usually referred to as a "fruit machine" in the UK. That term can also mean any slot there, so the terminology is confusing. The fruit machines I'm told can be found in bingo parlors and arcades. I'm told these machines have a set loose and tight modes and alternate between them. I don't know anything about the specific programming. I get asked about them a lot. It may be the question I get the most, that I can't answer well.
Quote: WizardI can think of a couple exceptions to the general rule that slot machines are never due to hit.
First is "pull tab" games, which are not real slots, but can be skinned to look like one. With paper pull tabs there is a fixed number of each outcome in each batch of tickets. In some states, like Iowa, rather than using paper, the outcome can be displayed in some other game. So, if there were 10,000 tickets in a batch, and the single jackpot winner was not in the first 9,999 games, then the 10,000th game would have to be the winner. However, the player probably wouldn't know when a net batch started, and there might be other machines drawing off the same batch..
The "Class III" lottery terminals in Washington, that masquerade as actual slots and video poker, supposedly have a fixed payout per X number of plays. If no one hits the top jackpot by that number of plays, the central computer will simply force a win onto one of the machines in play.
I remember a highly amusing session playing one of these games (my first and last time). It became apparent that my decisions had no influence on the actual outcome. After a while, I started fooling around, just to see what happened. Dealt 33357, I threw away two of the 3's, and received two 5's in return. Dealt a pat flush in hearts, I threw away all five cards--and got back a flush in diamonds. I walked away laughing, and my only objection to the whole mess was that the machine shouldn't have said "Video Poker" on its faceplate--I considered that false advertising.
Quote: mkl654321I would still like to know how anyone thought the machine knew that it hadn't hit a jackpot,
The machine didn't 'know' anything. They were primitive by todays standards and by observing them, some players deduced that some of them paid off the jackpot on a somewhat regular basis. Why did the casino 'allow it'? If they made a profit, why would they care when it paid off? As I said it didn't work every time, and sometimes the players lost money or broke even. But in the end they made enough to keep doing it for years. I believe that the woman in 'Wizards of Gambling' was playing the old progressive machines, which some concluded were also 'due'.
Quote: EvenBobIn fact, I know somebody who did it in Vegas in the 50's on the cast metal one armed bandits that are so collectible now. He would stake out machines with his buddies and when one didn't pay off for awhile, they would play it till it did. They would play it non stop in shifts for as long as it took. It was very boring but it was profitable and many people were doing it. As long as coins were going in, the casinos could care less who won.
People stalk machines that are "due" now, too. The people who do it now are wrong, and I'm having a hard time differentiating that from your friend's experience in the '50s. And I think the casino would prefer to perform "maintenance" on machines that were due. Wouldn't they just reset them before people swarmed them?
Quote: mkl654321The "Class III" lottery terminals in Washington, that masquerade as actual slots and video poker, supposedly have a fixed payout per X number of plays. If no one hits the top jackpot by that number of plays, the central computer will simply force a win onto one of the machines in play.
I remember a highly amusing session playing one of these games (my first and last time). It became apparent that my decisions had no influence on the actual outcome. After a while, I started fooling around, just to see what happened. Dealt 33357, I threw away two of the 3's, and received two 5's in return. Dealt a pat flush in hearts, I threw away all five cards--and got back a flush in diamonds. I walked away laughing, and my only objection to the whole mess was that the machine shouldn't have said "Video Poker" on its faceplate--I considered that false advertising.
It's actually drawing from a list of electronic pull-tab (instant) tickets as the Wizard says - there's no randomness determined on the terminal at all. The central computer stores the list of virtual tickets and sends them down upon request. The New York lottery VLTs work in (almost) the same way.
http://www.multimediagames.com/systems-technology/lottery.php
RNG is like a bunch of gumballs always getting shuffled but never increasing or decreasing.
Quote: WizardI can think of a couple exceptions to the general rule that slot machines are never due to hit.
Second is what is usually referred to as a "fruit machine" in the UK. That term can also mean any slot there, so the terminology is confusing. The fruit machines I'm told can be found in bingo parlors and arcades. I'm told these machines have a set loose and tight modes and alternate between them. I don't know anything about the specific programming. I get asked about them a lot. It may be the question I get the most, that I can't answer well.
Fruit machines also exist in many pubs and working mens clubs, taxi cab offices and late night food joints.
I believe there is something in the UK law such that the pay outs have to hit a certain advertised percentage over a relatively short space of time... so they can become "due". They have a fascinating array of special modes,with nudges, holds and features, gambles, repeat spins. Some features went across multiple spins (and hences bets) They used to have a max jackpot of 25 pounds (plus a "repeat" on some machines). This may have changed, as I haven't looked at a "fruitie" for about 4 years.
The other feature of the UK pub was the quiz machines... various trivia questions for prizes. They'd normally start off easy, then rapidly become very obscure once you got into the money rounds. Though some people swore they could make profit out of them.
Company I worked for (Zoo Media) went on to prgram whole bunch of "quizzies". I regret not being the Test Engineer for them, which is one of the few career regrets I've ever had. Who knows where I would have been had I stayed on with them....
Quote: ahiromuI live in Washington and have experienced the electronic pull tabs. What is the rationale behind them?.
I guess the revenue stream is pretty easy to calculate from the casino's side with something like that.
I think sometimes people think of casinos as a relentless mathematical machine churning along. Well, they can win money that way, but they can win even more money by creating an atmosphere that folks think that they can beat the system. That brings in more players and brings in more money. If it were all relentless boring math, then there would be no one there. There are some folks on this board who love the long-haul math, but most casino players are there for the excitement, and love to think they are beating the system. So for the casino to encourage that, and actually cheat for the players, well that increases that mentality and may in the end bring more players in and more money into the casino. Illegal, yes. But in the overall interest of the casino... yes. So therefore they will try to get away with it if they can.
I'd guess this was somewhere between 10 and 15 years ago, and it was definitely in the "buckets of quarters" days. They certainly could have been popular in the '80s, although I wasn't playing then. I could see teams going after these machines, if there were lots of them in casinos.
Quote: MoscaRegarding machines due to hit, I can think of a third instance. I remember seeing a machine in AC, that was a "diamond mine". As the machine was played, "diamonds" would build in columns until a column was filled, and then they would spill out as winning units. I remember watching a woman playing who built up a column to 9 diamonds, and then she stopped; I sat down, played about 5 spins, added a diamond to the stack and it spilled out. I collected a modest jackpot (something like $30 on a quarter machine) and left.
I'd guess this was somewhere between 10 and 15 years ago, and it was definitely in the "buckets of quarters" days. They certainly could have been popular in the '80s, although I wasn't playing then. I could see teams going after these machines, if there were lots of them in casinos.
There is a similar machine that is popular here in MN. I never remember the name, but you collect little monkeys. 10 monkeys gets you into the jackpot game, which awards a progressive prize (1 of 5, from $10-$1000 base on a $.01 game). There is a team of very nice homeless guys who hang out and wait for people to quit mid-stream. It's funny to watch, because they're so very polite. They'll even tell people "No! You don't want to leave now. You're close! Well, if you're going anyway..."
Quote: rxwineI guess the revenue stream is pretty easy to calculate from the casino's side with something like that.
Pull-tabs (electronic or otherwise) represent a known financial outlay and known income. Mathematically it's an identical proposition to scratch tickets. If you play through the whole set of tickets, you know exactly how much you've sold and how much you've awarded in prizes. The variance is zero. Playing through an equivalent number of slot machine pulls will lead to an expected coin-in and coin-out, but with a much higher variance.
There's nothing "due" about it - they just did a brute force, play til you drop attack. Most of the progressives back then were 9/6 full pay Jacks so you could play a long time on a short roll. The idea being that at a certain level of progression the machine becomes 100%+.
I've read about these teams - they had a high turnover rate because it was, candidly, boring as hell.
Quote: thecesspitI assume (ho ho ho) that the jackpot value/number was pre-determined, and when it was passed, a trigger occurred and a random machine got the pay out message on the next spin. What that means to your EV and play strategy, I'm not sure.
I remember seeing that on an episode of American Casino. As far as I know that seemed to be the way it came across. The only qualification I remember being mentioned was that you had to have a slot club card in the machine.
Quote: CroupierI remember seeing that on an episode of American Casino. As far as I know that seemed to be the way it came across. The only qualification I remember being mentioned was that you had to have a slot club card in the machine.
I think I saw that episode. If I remember right the thing was the machine was set to hit in the next two days and the kid who was a slots manager had to stay on-property until it hit. Seems to me that this would be a definate chance for a "team" to work. Assuming one slot bank of maybe 10 machines and a known payout time and known mimimal payout---giddy-up. Big problem would be you would need a very large bankroll even if you spun slowly.
Quote: AZDuffmanI think I saw that episode. If I remember right the thing was the machine was set to hit in the next two days and the kid who was a slots manager had to stay on-property until it hit. Seems to me that this would be a definate chance for a "team" to work. Assuming one slot bank of maybe 10 machines and a known payout time and known mimimal payout---giddy-up. Big problem would be you would need a very large bankroll even if you spun slowly.
Yeah, sounds about right. The reason it was expected to hit in the next couple of days as it was guaranteed to hit at a certain amount. It definately seemed to get the asses on seats.
Quote: MartinMy brother, since deceased, was the day shift slots department manager at a Casino in Reno in the 80's. He told me that there was no such thing but what they were experiencing was teams of players who would attack a progressive VP cluster and they would play until someone hit the jackpot. He said there were several teams that traveled between Reno and Vegas working this angle.
There's nothing "due" about it - they just did a brute force, play til you drop attack. Most of the progressives back then were 9/6 full pay Jacks so you could play a long time on a short roll. The idea being that at a certain level of progression the machine becomes 100%+.
I've read about these teams - they had a high turnover rate because it was, candidly, boring as hell.
I worked at a Lake Tahoe casino in the early 80's and remember these "Team Players"...they would wait till a bank of progressive VP machines had hit a certain point, If I remember it was usually over $2,500 ( the progressive started at $1,000)..they called this an "overlay" then they would take over the bank machine by machine till they occupied all the seats and played till the royal hit....Since it pissed off the local players we had to put signs up on all our progressive banks that said "No Team Play Allowed"
I talked to one guy who ran a team and said they usually hit the royal before the break-even point...he paid his team $7/hr and a bonus to whoever hit the royal if a decent profit had been made.
Quote: pacman720I..he paid his team $7/hr and a bonus to whoever hit the royal if a decent profit had been made.
Thats what the woman in the book did. She used senior citizens and paid them an hourly wage and said the biggest headache was tax time because the seniors were private contractors and she didn't take taxes out of their pay. You really have to go back to the 50's when the old Mills slots were still used if you want to find machines that were due to hit. Players would have signs they'd leave on the machines when they went to the restroom, and woe be to anyone who hijacked that machine, they could end up in the hospital.
I was under the impression that some progressive machines, like the Jumbo machines at Station Casinos were programmed like that.
Quote: MartinMy brother, since deceased, was the day shift slots department manager at a Casino in Reno in the 80's. He told me that there was no such thing but what they were experiencing was teams of players who would attack a progressive VP cluster and they would play until someone hit the jackpot. He said there were several teams that traveled between Reno and Vegas working this angle.
There's nothing "due" about it - they just did a brute force, play til you drop attack. Most of the progressives back then were 9/6 full pay Jacks so you could play a long time on a short roll. The idea being that at a certain level of progression the machine becomes 100%+.
I've read about these teams - they had a high turnover rate because it was, candidly, boring as hell.
I read an article that a team of slot players made hundreds of thousands of dollars playing slot machines that were overpaying. Is this a true story. Did your brother ever mention if slot machines would overpay. They claimed to many quarters would come out.
Quote: pacomartinWhile we all know that the mythology of a table or a machine being due is the key to most of the money making ability of a casino, there is no real reason that you couldn't program a slot to increase the odds of hitting a jackpot.
There is, it's called "Law".
While there are ways to fit into its bounds, a machine that has a programmed tendency to go hot and cold would not be permitted, from what I understand. Casinos can change the chip, but they have to report it, and it's an actual chip that you open the machine to change.
There was a certain strength range for pulling the handle that tended to produce reliable results once the proper symbols were showing beforehand.
Eventually the manufacturers figured out what was going on, and added a deice called a "variator" to the machine, to throw things off. This was essentially an extra part with it's own stops that would affect how fast the reels stopped, regardless of pull. People could no longer simply look at the reels and figure out the proper strength to pull the handle.
Then the modern stepper motor slot was designed, and none of that mattered.
Quote: Zaphod77This was known as the rhythm method. It took practice, but was learnable.
There is a special term for people who practice the rhythm method --- "parents".
Quote: Zaphod77What's IS true about the old machines is that you could walk up to the machine, look at the combination, and, with practice, pull the handle just right so that you would hit a small jackpot. You could then repeat the jackpot again, by pulling the handle just right. This was known as the rhythm method. It took practice, but was learnable.
Good question. I wish I had a good answer. Such machines were before I turned 21. A roommate of mine in college thought he had the ability to find the "sweet spot" of a machine. However, I tend to think it was all in his head. Maybe MathExtremist can shed some light.
It only worked on EM slots, and only before the manufacturers redesigned them to stop it. It's heyday was back in the 50s. Reportedly a $5 pamphlet was sold on it, and there was a school in vegas that was teaching it for a bit.
The story is completely believable in my opinion, and has been corroborated by many sources. With the old slots, pulling the handle actually provided the power to spin the reels, and until the addition of the variator, the only source of entropy was the pulling of the handle itself.
the variator is documented here
This part didn't exist until sometime in the 50s, when the manufacturers realized they needed it.
Quote: WizardGood question. I wish I had a good answer. Such machines were before I turned 21. A roommate of mine in college thought he had the ability to find the "sweet spot" of a machine. However, I tend to think it was all in his head. Maybe MathExtremist can shed some light.
The purely mechanical games, the ones based on spring tension, payout fingers, and perforated reels, those were susceptible to mechanical manipulation. But since stepper motor control took over from ratchet-and-pawl, the actuating arm has been nothing more than a trigger for the motors, no different than pressing the spin button. It's entirely vestigial, as it were.
Quote: MathExtremistThe purely mechanical games, the ones based on spring tension, payout fingers, and perforated reels, those were susceptible to mechanical manipulation. But since stepper motor control took over from ratchet-and-pawl, the actuating arm has been nothing more than a trigger for the motors, no different than pressing the spin button. It's entirely vestigial, as it were.
Thanks Me Now in addition to expanding my limited knowledge of mathematical, you are adding to my vocabulary !
" I am a data analyst and I use vestigial all the time to describe anything that used to serve a purpose, but no longer does. " Excuse me for thinking you were showing off LOL
Quote: duckston09I read an article that a team of slot players made hundreds of thousands of dollars playing slot machines that were overpaying. Is this a true story. Did your brother ever mention if slot machines would overpay. They claimed to many quarters would come out.
I would doubt that the casinos would let that much money get away from them with faulty machines. The coin counters would certainly screw up occasionally though. I ran into one in Caesars LV once and my wife and I milked it for close to a $1000 for the few days we were there. It was our ATM when the gambling money got low. Justified the rip in our minds by the fact we couldn't win on anything else and Caesars ended up getting it all back anyway.
Do either of you know if Wheel of Fortune builds up for a bonus spin of the wheel?
I just spent 1.5 hours lurking the Wheel of Fortune quarter slot machines at McCarran. Whenever someone ground through $10-$40 and left without hitting the bonus wheel spin, I put in a $20 bill and played max bet (5 lines) until I hit the wheel myself. 8 out of 8 times I hit the bonus wheel spin before burning through my $20. I repeat, 8 out of 8. I profited between $2.75 and $20 each time I cashed out -- and got on my flight with $85 profit! Imagine that on a dollar machine...
So please explain:
Slots: horrible odds
Wheel of Fortune: progressive machine with horrible odds
McCarran: tightest slots
Yet, I kept hitting the bonus spin quick enough to make a profit 8 out of 8 times...
Was it luck or are WOF machines designed to build up to that bonus wheel spin??
THANKS
(I posted this on a different thread, forgive me, I'm getting ready to go back to Vegas to try my luck!)
For what it's worth, my father has had unusually good luck at the McCarran machines too...
Are there any variable state games on the Strip these days?
Quote: buzzpaff vestigial [/q
Used in medicine, too. Most commonly to describe the 'appendix'.
I don't know if they needed to prevent payout manipulation or simply to prevent damage to the innards from those who where trying to pull the arm in a manner they merely thought was going to be manipulative.Quote: Zaphod77the variator is documented here http://www.myslotnotes.com/okPDF/bally/bally%206000%20intro%20part%203.pdf
This part didn't exist until sometime in the 50s, when the manufacturers realized they needed it.
I don't even think slot machines are called one armed bandits anymore because many lack any handles at all. Casinos still watch though: early sixties I think, a change girl noticed a man was standing really close to a slot machine and was winning. He had an electronic cigarette lighter creating intense static intended to affect the chips.
It was luck. Even at the airport slots concession, major jackpots still take place. Lightning can and does hit just about anywhere. After all, those machines are still subject to the state law requirement of 75 percent payout rate. And probably are set quite a bit higher than that. They may be the lowest paying machines in town but that does not mean that lightning will not strike there.Quote: shaferdanielWas it luck or ...
