SD calculation help needed.

Recently had a really bad session on one of Microgaming slots. I would like to know if the results like this are still in the "normalcy" zone.
Here are the details:

Slot name: Moonshine (low variance slot)
The slot's RTP (published by Microgaming) - 95.96%
Bet value - 1 euro x 25 lines per spin
Total bets made - 3600
The final result: -688 euro (minus 688 euro)
Actual RTP - 80.9%

Thank you for help.

Is $1 your total bet value per spin or is it $1 per line?

Note: SD = Standard Deviation(s)

I guessed 4.84 as the variance (that is at the lower end for a slot).

Here are some estimates

i) "$0.05 x 20 lines per spin" : within 6.5258... SD, I am not good at converting to chance, but a page on Wikipedia says that has between a 1/10,000,000,000 and 1/100,000,000,000 chance of happening (so if you were betting that small, then something is likely wrong with the game)

ii) "$1 x 1 line per spin": within 4.1103... SD, Wikipedia says that has between 1 / 15,787 and 1 / 100,000 chance of happening.

iii) "$1 x 20 lines per spin": within 1.4591... SD, Wikipedia says that has between 1 / 5 and 1 / 10 chance of happening.

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As you can see, the SD figures can vary significantly, so that is why we need the bet value per line, and total bet value, thanks.

Important: these figures assume my estimate for the variance was the same (or very close) to the actual variance of the slot.

It was 1 euro bet x 25 lines per spin

Thanks

Quote: abuyang1

It was 1 euro bet x 25 lines

Thanks

So you bet 25 euro in total per game

If that is correct, then it was 1.31567... SD, so somewhere between 1/5 and 1/10 chance (a lot closer to 1/5, then 1/10).

No, sorry for confusion. My total bet is 1 euro. I play 25 lines with that bet.

Quote: abuyang1

No, sorry for confusion. My total bet is 1 euro. I play 25 lines with that bet.

For "0.04 euro x 25 lines" (total bet 1 euro): i get 4.0369047... SD***

***: Somewhere between 1 / 15,787 and 1 / 100,000 chance of happening (closer to 1 / 15,787 chance).

Note: Please forget all other replies/posts in this thread by me, as I made some conversion mistakes before (sorry, I don't normally work on "slot math").

Note 2: the new estimated variance I am using is now 5.02

Note 3: I personally would consider "low variance" for a slot to be less than 5.2 (but other opinions may vary).

4 sd? Can we consider it as a suspicious result?

A 4 SD event is about 1 in 16,000. So it’s rare but by no means extremely rare,

Also I think you have to put it in context. For instance, the chance of getting 3 consecutive blackjacks is about 1 in 10,000. If someone gets that on the first 3 hands of their life, that’s pretty rare. But for a casual player that plays maybe 5,000 hands per year...it’s normal and expected to happen occasionally. Sort of like a hole in one for a pro golfer.